Finance at Saline Lake group 60% crystal station prices remained at 1970 yuan / ton, 62% Russian port white potash prices basically at 2050-2080 yuan / ton. The downstream fertilizer leads to the Spring Festival approaching, traffic is blocked, the new single turnover is relatively reduced, some manufacturers parking maintenance.

In January 23rd, the domestic parts of potassium sulfate Market overview:

Shandong Yantai Qifeng chemical potassium sulfate powder in 50% price 2500 yuan / ton, grain price at 2600 yuan / ton, the actual single meeting.

Shijiazhuang and potassium sulfate 50% powder factory price 2350 yuan / ton, 50% grain factory price 2500 yuan / ton.

Hebei Gaoqiao agricultural science and technology of potassium sulfate particles 50% price 2600 yuan / ton, 50% powder price 2450 yuan / ton, 52% powder price 2550 yuan / ton.

Last year, the largest merger is China Cnpc Jinan Diesel Engine Co merger on Chinese petroleum Vantage Capitals Ltd, the transaction amounted to $11 billion 304 million. Followed by the United States Yum group (shareholders) of Chinese Yum holdings merger, the transaction amounted to 10 billion 913 million dollars. Followed by Chinese Shanghai Baosteel Group, Wuhan steel merger of Limited by Share Ltd, China Ma’anshan Dingtai rare earth new material limited company mergers and acquisitions Holdings (Group) Co., Ltd. SF and China travel China yuho drops m, the total amount of the transaction was $8 billion 719 million, $7 billion 679 million and $7 billion.

In 2016, the Chinese buyer sought after target investment for the United States, has been announced in the United States in the 99 volume of mergers and acquisitions, the transaction amounted to $66 billion 200 million, compared with $13 billion 600 million in annual gross transactions in 2015 was nearly 4 times higher. One of the most popular industry is industry and chemical industry, industry mergers and acquisitions worth soared to $72 billion 600 million from $15 billion 800 million in 2015.

In contrast, in 2016 a total of 1706 domestic investment transactions, GDP fell from $570 billion 100 million a year to $386 billion 700 million, a drop of 32.2%. 142 single foreign investment in China, trading volume also rose by 40.5%, to $21 billion 600 million from $36 billion 300 million.

According to market information (Mergermarket) issued the “Chinese mainland and Hongkong 2016 annual trends report”, and in 2016 the total gross trading transactions China mainland and Hongkong merger market hit a record high level of second. Among them, the transaction amounted to US $408 billion 300 million in 2015 to a record $606 billion 600 million index fell 32.7%, the total amount of the transaction was 1848, down 88.

Cash rich China seek to hedge against the risk of devaluation will be one of the factors in 2016 to boost overseas acquisitions, as of the end of 2016, Chinese enterprises overseas mergers and acquisitions market recorded transactions worth $212 billion 400 million, to achieve 442 of total transactions, an increase of 143.8%.

since January, the holiday tired library and the downstream receiving goods will lower than expected the combined effects of PP1705 contract for 3% recent highs, due to the overall improvement of commercial atmosphere to stabilize rebound.

But before the Spring Festival tired library is still likely to continue as of January 11th, petrochemical stocks have been accumulated up to 780 thousand tons, taking into account the downstream replenishment to focus on the outbreak, the trend may still weak shock.

PP supply or continue to ascend

The recent PP supply mainly depends on the amount of memory in the supply and import. From the domestic stock supply, as of January 11th PP device maintenance rate was only 11.74%, which contains 4 units of long-term parking, so the overall rate of more than 90% boot device. Taking into account this device maintenance more, before the Spring Festival again more probability of maintenance is quite small, so the year before the high operation rate will continue to maintain.

From the point of view of imports, imports in December due to profit, and thrown into the domestic futures have profits, is expected to stimulate imports rebounded in January. In addition from seasonal, seasonal highs in January imports, imports of goods to Hong Kong early are concentrated in 1 and February. Overall, the domestic spot supply pressure PP before and after the Spring Festival are relatively large, which makes the downstream pessimistic before and after the Spring Festival market, delayed restocking behavior.

Years ago, the supply and demand pressures still

From just need, ahead of the Spring Festival this year to the end of January, while the PP downstream mainly to small and medium enterprises, operation rate down process before and after the spring festival. And now the woven profits are not good, ahead of the holiday business gradually increased, exacerbating the fall just before the spring festival. The second is in the downstream replenishment needs, although before and after the Spring Festival just need to continue downward trend will not change much, but because the current low inventory downstream, replenishment demand still exists, although the high prices continue to fall, there will appear in the downstream stocking behavior, but it is difficult to have the scale effect, before the Holiday Stocking will continue cautious.

In the long run, before and after the Spring Festival PP supply pressure will continue to increase, but just to be a down process, if the downstream restocking demand as expected until the year after release, so before the Spring Festival PP probably rate will continue to fall; and if the restocking demand release before the holiday, the Festival is at the expense of demand. The festival will also increase the pressure, so no matter what kind of situation, the overall market pressure will continue to exist, but the rhythm changes before and after the Spring Festival is still mainly short unilateral operation.

A few large central enterprises to speed up the reform of chemical platform, moves frequently
At present, the chemical sector has 27 central enterprises, including Sinopec group, Chinese Petroleum Group, China chemical group, in the group of four central enterprises under the platform enterprises accounted for the vast majority, also including China Offshore Oil Corporation, China National Salt Industry Corporation, China North Industries Group Corporation and other central enterprises group company. Up to now, the chemical industry almost all central enterprises were introduced to deepen the reform direction and the programmatic document of SOE reform, the reform of state-owned enterprises in the chemical industry as a whole to promote everything in good order and well arranged. From the chemical industry reform case, there are three main ways: 1, the equity reform, to change the mix to the introduction of strategic investors; 2, asset securitization, asset injection and reorganization; 3, the reform of the management system, equity incentives, employee stock ownership plan.

The ideal is full, the reality is very skinny.” Academician Liu Zhongfan said, a recently

research shows that the graphene materials, there is a big gap between the ideal and the

reality. He said: “the ideal state of single crystal graphene structure with perfect

graphene honeycomb, but actually observed is piled up by single pieces of polycrystalline

film or powder, like a piece of broken clothes, there are a lot of dirty things.”

Harbin, Qitaihe, Suzhou…… Academician Liu Zhongfan made a graphene Industrial Park

map, there are nearly 20 graphene Industrial Park, “whether it is a developed area, or in

remote areas, all graphene Industrial Park under construction.”

“industrial development of graphene to be solid, to do

high” killer application “, regardless of the future can not be satisfied with only the

product, such as the now popular on the market of graphene underwear and belt, not to

engage in vigorous Yiyongershang graphene industry” great leap forward “movement.”

China academician, Academy of Sciences of Peking University professor Liu Zhongfan

pointed to the screen “Daliangangtie” photos said, laughter sounded a tacit understanding

of the audience. This is held in Harbin in January 10th 2017 Chinese graphite new

material industry development forum “scene.

On the same day, domestic graphite new materials in the field of scholars, academic

leaders, the core enterprise leader, hundreds of people gathered in Harbin to participate

in organized by the Chinese graphite industry alliance “Chinese graphite new material

industry development forum”. The forum aims to promote the new material of graphite

research industrialization process, promote the healthy development of the graphite

industry entered the stage.

“The international oil price fluctuations in the near future, on the one hand and the dollar, the dollar index on Tuesday intraday refresh a new high of nearly 14 years, has since pared some gains due to the negative correlation between crude oil and the dollar to maintain long-term high, so the recent trend of crude oil to a certain impact the dollar volatility; on the other hand, in January. The producers cut into the implementation phase, but the countries’ commitment to implement production is not clear, the market also appears certain differences.” Founder medium-term futures analyst Sui Xiaoying said.

At the end of September 2016, OPEC reached a preliminary agreement to freeze production regulations, OPEC will own production limited to 32 million 500 thousand barrels / day level. The same year the end of November, OPEC specific production share reallocated. At the same time, to Russia as the representative of the non OPEC oil producers have announced the production of 558 thousand barrels / day. As the frozen production finalized, the international crude oil prices rose sharply.

According to the December OPEC2016 monthly forecast, in 2017 a quarter of the world’s total oil demand will reach 94 million 600 thousand barrels / day, non OPEC supply of 56 million 700 thousand barrels / day, the supply of non conventional oil and gas to 6 million 400 thousand barrels / day. If the OPEC will produce a limit of 32 million 500 thousand barrels / day level, global crude oil production reached 95 million 600 thousand barrels of non OPEC still, another 558 thousand barrels, a quarter of the global supply of crude oil in excess of 442 thousand barrels / day level, the previous period significantly ease.

According to Al-Anba reports, Jamal Kuwait National Petroleum Corporation CEO Jaafer said Kuwait has cut 130 thousand barrels / day production to 2 million 750 thousand barrels / day. In addition, Oman television reported, Oman Petroleum Marketing Director Ali Al-Riyami said the country’s November oil production cut by 45 thousand barrels / day to 1 million 14 thousand barrels / day, that some Middle East countries have already begun to cut.

Topix Derivatives Research Institute analyst Jin Xiao pointed out that the recent volatility in oil prices by OPEC whether these affect the production. The market is now caught in a dilemma, on the one hand, the expected OPEC production to support prices, on the other hand is whether the production of OPEC are still skeptical, especially in Libya crude oil production gradually recovering. If the OPEC cannot deliver production, then the supply pressure will increase.

“Because the OPEC no longer yield under the crude oil demand growth is expected to slow, the market generally believes that to the first half of 2018 in the second half of 2017, global oil supply and demand is expected to achieve rebalancing. Of course, it is estimated that the market is more optimistic. In fact, the global oil supply surplus is mainly tight oil technology from the United States as the representative of the mature in the United States caused by the freezing production under the premise, even if the OPEC United Russia frozen, the freezing production behavior for the ability to influence the price of crude oil is also doubtful.” Jinshi futures analyst Huang Liqiang said.

Shale oil will come back

2016 is the commodity bull market, plastics futures prices throughout the year higher oscillation, 1705 contracts in December 12th hit a new high in recent 10000 yuan / ton near finishing oscillation. Although the 2016 production capacity of PE has entered the intensive period, but due to demand better, the overall trend of the price of plastic is not bad, constantly low elevation, high breakthrough.

With the current PE market fundamentals, the author thinks that the late 1705 contracts in December 12th hit a high point may still be a breakthrough.

In 2017 PE the actual launch capacity may be less than expected

Launch capacity is one of the factors that influence the trend of price, capacity delivery does not mean the price will fall, sometimes on the contrary. 2015 domestic PE new zero on the actual capacity, but the current prices fell. In 2016 the domestic production capacity of PE put into the intensive period, according to the statistics in 2016 the domestic PE production capacity increased by 1 million 170 thousand tons, an increase of 7.77% last year; in 2017 China plans to add 2 million 370 thousand tons of production capacity, the chain will increase by 14.6% over the previous year, converted into effective chain of production capacity is expected to increase by 7.55%, but considering that in recent years the PE device production schedule are mostly less than expected, delayed put more generally, the actual production capacity on 2017 and may be less than expected.

The new PE device on the overseas production capacity in 2016 will be more, but the overseas supply on the domestic market does not impact. Expected in 2016 domestic imports of PE will be reduced by about 9%, which is since 2011 PE imports fell for the first time.

The main reason of reduced imports is the devaluation of the renminbi, raise the cost of imports, imports of losses, the author calculated the year 2016 LLDPE import profit almost at a loss, after October with the devaluation of the RMB to speed up the process of increasing the loss of imports expanded to 1000 – 1500 yuan / ton. We believe that in 2017 the RMB will continue to depreciate, it will not help but is conducive to the export of imported PE PE, so the overseas market PE new capacity will not significantly impact on the domestic market.

PE overall improvement in downstream demand

The methanol market has changed the previous pattern of excess capacity, turn to the direction of the development of tight balance between supply and demand, by the end of 2016 or even a supply shortage state.

From the view of productivity growth, in 2017 the surface will once again enter the high delivery mode, but in fact is the next year a large number of production of coal methanol to olefins integrated device. Next year, about 15000000 tons of methanol production capacity on the downstream, but only 3 million 170 thousand tons of methanol production possibility to exclude no support, low production capacity, only 1 million 270 thousand tons of methanol have a real impact on the market, so in 2017 the actual capacity is not much.

At the same time, rising domestic operating space is limited, this year’s national average started only in 67% to maintain, even at the end of the production profit is very good, also started to always maintain this level, the domestic supply elasticity of poor performance. In 2017, the environmental pressure is inevitable, the gas head capacity or improved but finite volume, considering the regional spread, the expected output to the East is still limited.

The East China market more mainland enterprises under methanol output in the import market. But next year the international methanol is mainly about 2 million 660 thousand tons of new Iran in the second half production and the United States until the end of the gradual release of 1 million 750 thousand tons of three units, the first half of the new co.. From a global point of view of supply and demand, methanol market and the existence of the time difference, the first half of the second half of methanol is tight, loose even better.