Price Trend

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According to the monitoring data of business associations, zinc prices fell sharply this week. As of April 26, the price of zinc was 21940.00 yuan/ton, down 0.92% from 22143.33 yuan/ton at the beginning of this week. Zinc prices fell by 9.24% over the same period last year. Overall, the zinc market fell this week, and the zinc market was negative.

II. Market Trend Analysis

In terms of products:

LME Futures Market Shanghai Futures Market

Time, Inventory, Price, Inventory, Price

2019-4-22 73575 tons US$2795/ton 46937 tons 21860 yuan/ton

2019-4-26 80025 tons US$2764/ton 39683 tons 21870 yuan/ton

19.4 Business Association www.100ppi.com

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As can be seen from the chart, the stock of zinc ingots in LME market rose sharply this week, the supply of zinc ingots increased, dragging down the price of zinc in the market, and the price of zinc fell sharply. The stock of zinc ingots in Shanghai futures market dropped sharply, which had a positive impact on zinc price. The price of zinc in Shanghai futures rose slightly by 10 yuan/ton. Overall high inventory of zinc ingots in futures does not play a sufficient supporting role in the rise of zinc prices, dragging down spot zinc prices, and zinc market is in a bad position. Overall, the zinc ingot inventory in the international market has risen sharply, which has a negative impact on the zinc market. The domestic zinc ingot inventory has declined but is still at a high level, which has a limited supporting effect on the zinc market.

Non-ferrous plate:

 

As can be seen from the K-line chart of the non-ferrous plate index, the overall decline of the non-ferrous plate this week, the negative macroeconomic environment, the overall decline of the non-ferrous plate market, the negative market for zinc, the overall incentive for zinc price rise is insufficient.

Data statistics:

According to data released by the General Administration of Customs, the export of zinc and its products in China was 311.64 million yuan from January to March 2019, a decrease of 7.7% over the same period of last year, while the import of zinc and its products was 32.03.85 million yuan, a decrease of 14.9% over the same period of last year. The import and export of zinc and its products decreased year on year, the macroeconomic environment was negative, the demand for zinc was declining, and the overall negative effect on zinc city was negative.

In March 2019, Chinese die-casting zinc alloy manufacturers sold 39,250 tons, an increase of 76.2% annually and 14.1% year-on-year. In March, the sales volume of die-casting zinc alloy manufacturers in Guangdong area was 14,900 tons, ranking the first in the country, with an increase of 79.5% annually; the sales volume of die-casting zinc alloy manufacturers in Zhejiang area was 9,800 tons, with an increase of 59.4% annually; the sales volume of die-casting zinc alloy manufacturers in Fujian area was 9,500 tons, with an increase of 111% annually. The increase of domestic die-casting zinc alloy sales has a certain positive impact on zinc city, and the driving force of zinc market in the future will increase.

According to the statistics of Asian Metal Network, the average start-up rate of domestic zinc oxide enterprises in March 2019 was 53.87%, which was 67.8% higher than that of the previous year and 7.5% lower than that of the previous year. In March, the start-up rate of zinc oxide producers in Tianjin was 90%, 200% higher than that in the previous year; the start-up rate of zinc oxide producers in Anhui was 76.8%, 100% higher than that in the previous year; and the start-up rate of zinc oxide producers in Zhejiang was 64.39%, 46.7% higher than that in the previous year. The production start-up rate of zinc oxide enterprises has risen, and the demand for zinc ingots has increased to a certain extent, which is good for zinc market.

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Enterprise dynamics:

Bloomberg: Teck Resources CEO Don Lindsay said global zinc inventories were equivalent to 4.1 days of consumption, well below the 25-year average of 22.3 days. Zinc stocks are below the historical average level, and zinc prices still have room to rise, which has a positive impact on the future market of zinc.

Chifeng Defa Mineral Co., Ltd. plans to resume production of lead and zinc concentrates in the second half of this year, after nearly four years of shutdown. The company’s concentrator has a daily processing capacity of 1,000 tons of raw ore, which contains about 2% zinc, and normal monthly production of zinc concentrate is about 400 tons before shutdown. The supply of zinc ingots increased gradually in the second half of the year after the resumption of production in the mine, which had a negative impact on the zinc market in the long run, but had a limited impact on the zinc market in the short run.

Macroeconomic environment:

Late Wednesday, the World Bank released its latest report, pointing out that China’s economy is expected to grow by 6.2% in 2019 and 2020, which is lower than the 6.6% in 2018. The World Bank’s expectations for China’s economic growth are lower, the macroeconomic environment is not optimistic, and the overall negative impact on the zinc market will be created, and the strength of the post-market rise of zinc prices will be limited.

3. Prospects for the Future Market

Bai Jiaxin, a business analyst, believes that: on the international side, the sharp rise in zinc supply in LME futures market has a big negative impact on zinc prices; the latest report issued by the World Bank lowers China’s economic growth rate and holds a pessimistic attitude towards macroeconomic recovery; the escalation of the trade war between the United States and the European Union has affected the global economic rebound and has a large air impact on international zinc prices. Domestically, the stock of zinc ingots in Shanghai futures market has dropped sharply, the supply of zinc has decreased, the import and export quantity of zinc and its products has dropped sharply in the first quarter, and the demand of domestic zinc market is insufficient, which has a negative impact on the domestic zinc market. The production and sales of zinc alloy and zinc oxide industry have increased, the demand for zinc ingots has increased, which is good for the future zinc city, but the overall domestic macroeconomic situation is not optimistic, and the zinc market is not rising enough. Chifeng Defa Mine resumed production of lead-zinc concentrate in the second half of the year, and the supply of zinc increased in the second half of the year, which had a favorable negative impact on the long-term zinc market, but had little impact on the short-term zinc price. According to the historical data, the global zinc inventory is far below the historical average level at the present stage, and the demand for zinc ingots in the market is expected to increase substantially, which is better for zinc city. However, from the macroeconomic environment and the relationship between supply and demand, the demand of zinc city is declining seriously, the supply-demand is increasing, and the rising space of zinc city is limited. It is anticipated that the price of zinc will be adjusted in the future, and the price of zinc will be adjusted in the range of 21700-22500 yuan/ton.

Price Trend

 

The domestic dimethyl ether market fell this week. At the beginning of the week, the average domestic dimethyl ether market price was 3506.67 yuan/ton, and the weekend average price was 3470 yuan/ton. Within the week, the price dropped by 1.05%, 19.7% compared with the same period last year.

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II. Market Analysis

Product: Dimethyl ether (Henan) market overall fell this week, the market trading atmosphere is not good. Up to April 19, the parking and maintenance of Yutai in Hebei, Shengxin in Qinyang in Henan, Lankao Huitong in Henan and Yuhuang dimethyl ether plant in Shandong were not quoted for the time being. Henan Yima Xinyuan dimethyl ether ex-factory price is 3450 yuan/ton, Hebei Jichun Chemical Co., Ltd. is 3450 yuan/ton, Shandong Dezhou Shengdeyuan Co., Ltd. is 3470 yuan/ton, Shanxi Orchid Science and Technology Venture Co., Ltd. is 3270 yuan/ton.

Industry chain: The domestic methanol market is not doing well this week. At the beginning of the week, the average domestic methanol market price was 2,388 yuan/ton, and at the end of the week it was 2,270 yuan/ton. Within the week, the price fell by 4.94%, 23.86% compared with the same period last year. The domestic liquefied petroleum gas (Shandong) market fell sharply this week. At the beginning of the week, the average price of the domestic liquefied petroleum gas market was 4,420 yuan/ton. At the end of the week, the average price was 4,386.67 yuan/ton. Within the week, the decline was 0.75%, and the price increased by 12.35% compared with the same period last year. At the beginning of the week, there was a slight increase. Under the effect of OPEC production reduction, international crude oil continued to rise, boosting the liquefied gas market mentality. In addition, some factories in Henan are still in the state of overhaul, low supply to support the balance of production and marketing of enterprises. However, the warming weather, dimethyl ether Market in the off-season, downstream demand is limited, there are still some restrictions on the market. The trend of cost methanol is not good. The downstream market has a strong hollow outlook on the future market. The enthusiasm of entering the market is not high, and most of them are wait-and-see.

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Industry: According to the business association price monitoring, in the 15th week of 2019 (4.15-4.19), there were five kinds of commodities rising in the energy sector. The top three commodities were petroleum coke (0.94%), liquefied natural gas (0.94%) and Brent crude oil (0.59%). There are nine kinds of commodities that have decreased annually. The first three products are methanol (-4.94%), gasoline (-1.85%) and power coal (-1.46%). Average gains and losses this week were -0.61%.

3. Future Market Forecast

Dimethyl ether analysts of business associations believe that the market for methanol and liquefied petroleum gas is not moving well and bearish. In addition, the current off-season, the market is still expected to be downgraded.

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Price Trend

According to data from business associations, the acrylic acid market rose slightly this week, with an offer price of 8467.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week and 8800 yuan/ton at the end of the week, with a price increase of 333 yuan/ton, or 3.94%.

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II. Market Analysis

Product: Acrylic acid market price is rising this week, the terminal demand is obvious, and the supply is selling well. At present, the mainstream price in the primary market of Pu-acid is between 8600 and 8800 yuan/ton, and there is limited room for negotiation. As of Friday, the price of acrylic acid at Wanzhou Petrochemical Company was stable. The price of acrylic acid in Wanhua Chemical Petrochemical Company is stable at 8,300 yuan/ton, and the price of acrylic acid in Qilu Kaitai is stable at the moment, while the price of acrylic acid in Wanhua Chemical Petrochemical Company is stable at the present time, and the price of acrylic acid in Qilu Kaitai is stable at the present time. Pu acid 8800 yuan/ton, specific transaction price, factual.

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Industry chain: Recently, the price of domestic propylene (Shandong) has been declining. Today, the mainstream price of propylene has dropped by another 100 yuan/ton. At present, the mainstream transaction in the market has fallen to about 6800-7000 yuan/ton. Recently, the overhaul of propylene plant, such as Wanhua PDH device officially started parking overhaul on April 1, 2019, is expected to be repaired for about 20 days, and the downstream propylene production plant is running normally. There is no obvious good news in the market, and nearly late April, the industry is not confident about the future market. The downstream buying enthusiasm is not good, and the market is full of wait-and-see sentiment.

3. Future Market Forecast

Acrylic acid analysts believe that the domestic acrylic market has gradually become an upward trend after the Xiangshui incident, with a slight decline in production capacity, demand exceeding expectations at the end of the market, and prices gradually rising. It is expected that the focus of the acrylic acid market will shift in the short term, and transaction prices will continue to explore.

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Last week (April 8, 2019 – April 12, 2019), the market as a whole closed normally, the price of potassium chloride temporarily stabilized. On April 15, China’s Wholesale Potassium Chloride Price Index (CKPI) was 2217.85 points, down 0.92 points, or 0.04% annually; it rose 118.25 points, or 5.63% year-on-year; and it fell 1072.75 points, or 32.60%, in the bi-base period.

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Supply Situation: In terms of domestic potassium, Qinghai Salt Lake plant operates normally with a daily output of about 14,000 tons; the arrival price of 60% crystal powder for the base product will continue to maintain 2,350 yuan/ton, and the rebate policy will be 50-70 yuan/ton. On the import of potassium, new sources of goods continued to arrive, port stocks maintained around 2.18 million tons; traders slowed down shipments, port potassium prices rose slightly, 62% Russian-white potassium quotation rose to about 2350-2340 yuan/ton. In terms of border potassium trade, the market demand in Northeast China has started, and the volume of border potassium trade has increased slightly. The quotation of 62% Russian-white potassium has maintained about 2150 yuan/ton.

Demand: High nitrogen fertilizer is the main fertilizer for agricultural spring tillage, but the demand for potassium fertilizer is insufficient. The basic distributors of compound fertilizer have increased their delivery, and the start-up rate of enterprises is temporarily stable. The overall start-up rate is about 46.91%, which is the same as last week, an increase of 5.09 percentage points over the same period last year.

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International market: International potassium chloride prices were basically stable last week. In the United States, the price of potash fell slightly; in Europe, the price of high-end fertilizer rose slightly. In terms of price, the high-end offshore price of Jordan’s potassium chloride increased by $3 per ton to $267-290 per ton; the offshore prices of Canada, Russia, Israel, Southeast Asia and Brazil remained stable, ranging from $257-299 to $244-311, from $267 to $311, from $295 to $315 and from $340 to $350 per ton, respectively.

Table: International Potassium Chloride Price Change Table

产品

product

区域

region

涨跌幅度

Ups and downs

（美元/吨）

(US Dollars/Tons)

现货价格（美元/吨）

Spot price (US dollar/ton)

2019-4-11

2019-4-11

2019-4-4

2019-4-4

氯化钾

potassium chloride

(FOB散装)

(FOB bulk)

加拿大

Canada

0-0

0-0

257-299

257-299

257-299

257-299

俄联邦

Russian Federation

0-0

0-0

244-311

244-311

244-311

244-311

约旦

Jordan

0-↑3

0- 3

267-290

267-290

267-287

267-287

以色列

Israel

0-0

0-0

267-311

267-311

267-311

267-311

CFR东南亚

CFR Southeast Asia

0-0

0-0

295-315

295-315

295-315

295-315

CFR巴西

CFR Brazil

0-0

0-0

340-350

340-350

340-350

340-350

Source of data: collated according to relevant materials

Domestic market: The price of potassium chloride in domestic market has been rising and falling in recent years. According to the monitoring data of the association, the wholesale prices of domestic potassium chloride provinces increased by 50 yuan/ton in Shanghai compared with the previous week, and fell by 5 yuan/ton in Zhejiang Province, while those of other provinces remained stable. In the wholesale prices of imported potassium chloride provinces, the prices of Hubei, Shanghai and Guangdong increased by 123.3 yuan/ton, 20 yuan/ton and 20 yuan/ton respectively compared with the previous week, while those of Hunan and Fujian provinces increased by 123.3 yuan/ton, 20 yuan/ton respectively. Prices in other provinces fell by 100 yuan/ton and 33.3 yuan/ton respectively compared with the previous week, while prices in other provinces remained stable.

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Table: Price Change Table of Potassium Chloride in China

品种

Varieties

省份

Province

2019-4-11

2019-4-11

(元/吨)

(yuan / ton)

2019-4-4

2019-4-4

(元/吨)

(yuan / ton)

涨跌幅

Ups and downs

(元/吨)

(yuan / ton)

环比

Chain ratio

国产氯化钾

Domestic potassium chloride

批发价

Trade price

上海

Shanghai

2,210.0

Two thousand two hundred and ten

2,160.0

Two thousand one hundred and sixty

50

Fifty

2.3%

2.3%

浙江

Zhejiang

2,230.0

Two thousand two hundred and thirty

2,235.0

Two thousand two hundred and thirty-five

-5

-5

-0.2%

-0.2%

进口氯化钾

Import potassium chloride

批发价

Trade price

湖北

Hubei

2,803.3

Two thousand eight hundred and three point three

2,680.0

Two thousand six hundred and eighty

123.3

One hundred and twenty-three point three

4.6%

4.6%

上海

Shanghai

2,230.0

Two thousand two hundred and thirty

2,210.0

Two thousand two hundred and ten

20

Twenty

0.9%

0.9%

广东

Guangdong

2,470.0

Two thousand four hundred and seventy

2,450.0

Two thousand four hundred and fifty

20

Twenty

0.8%

0.8%

福建

Fujian

2,816.7

Two thousand eight hundred and sixteen point seven

2,850.0

Two thousand eight hundred and fifty

-33.3

-33.3

-1.2%

-1.2%

湖南

Hunan

2,400.0

Two thousand and four hundred

2,500.0

Two thousand and five hundred

-100

-100

-4.0%

-4.0%

Data Source: China Agricultural Circulation Association

At present, the demand for fertilizer in Northeast China is warming up, but the quantity of potassium arrived at the port is increasing and the stock is large. The market supply is still sufficient, and the price of potassium chloride is temporarily stable. In the future, when spring tillage fertilizer entered the late stage, the demand for chemical fertilizer decreased, and the potassium fertilizer market had more stocks, which supported the price weakly. In the international market, the demand for international potassium fertilizer was delayed and the price was stable in the short term. In conclusion, it is expected that the domestic price of potassium chloride will continue to be weaker in the short term, focusing on the arrival and inventory of potassium in ports.

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Price Trend

The domestic BDO market is weak and stable. According to the sample data monitored by business associations, as of April 16, the average price of the domestic BDO market was 9064 yuan/ton.

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II. Market Analysis

Products: Domestic BDO market is weak and stable. Recently, some factories of BDO in China have been overhauling or reducing their losses. Some factories have made firm offers, which are quite market-oriented. Spot market supply is still abundant, downstream inquiries are generally positive, multi-CEO is about the main, bulk bill turnover is light. The market news is calm, the holder is cautious in making the offer, the offer is temporarily stable, and the goods will be delivered on the market as soon as possible.

On the market side, the spot market of BDO in South China is stable. At present, the pressure of production cost is increasing and the overall production load of the factory is low. BDO factory has a strong market intention, but there is abundant spot supply in the market. The stockholders exercise caution and ship goods on the market. The spot market of BDO in East China is weak. At present, the pressure of production cost is increasing and the overall load of the factory is decreasing. BDO factory offers are firm and the market will be strong. However, the spot stock is high in the market, and the stockholders are cautious in their manipulation, so as to make profits and promote sales, they can ship goods on the market as they like.

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Industry chain: In terms of raw materials, the northwest methanol market has fallen, the Inner Mongolia market has fallen, and the factory price has fallen by 30 yuan/ton to 2200 yuan/ton. Some enterprises have restarted this week. Traders are pessimistic about the market. The price is expected to fall further this week. Mainstream prices in Guanzhong region dropped 50 yuan/ton to 2200-2210 yuan/ton, and the overall inventory of manufacturers was low, but the shipment was not ideal, so the possibility of double adjustment could not be ruled out. The methanol market in Northwest China is expected to fall mainly. Calcium carbide: Domestic calcium carbide Market consolidation, power limitation in Inner Mongolia has eased, small calcium carbide stoves shut down in the early stage have gradually started construction, market supply has increased. The trade price in the Wuhai region has been loose sporadically, and the domestic calcium carbide market is expected to remain stable.

3. Future Market Forecast

On the positive side, upstream calcium carbide cost support. On the bearish side, downstream demand is light. The willingness of the manufacturer to support the market has been strengthened. The manufacturer delivers the goods along with the market, and the atmosphere of wait-and-see is strong. At present, the domestic BDO spot supply is excessive, and the follow-up of downstream real orders is limited. BDO analysts of business associations expect that the domestic BDO market is weak.

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Price Trend

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According to the monitoring data of business associations, the domestic acetic acid Market shocked and adjusted this week. At the beginning of the week, the average price of acetic acid in eastern China was about 2983 yuan/ton, and the average price of acetic acid in the weekend was about 3000 yuan/ton, up slightly by 0.56%. At present, the quotation in Henan is about 2700-2750/ton; in Shandong is about 2950-3100 yuan/ton; in Hebei is about 2950-3000 yuan/ton; in Shaanxi is about 2500 yuan/ton; in Jiangsu is about 2900-3000 yuan/ton; in Zhejiang is about 3050-3150 yuan/ton; in South China, the quotation is about 3050-3100 yuan/ton, which is 34.78% lower than that in the same period last year.

II. Cause Analysis

Products: This week, the domestic acetic acid market shocks and adjustments, affected by the centralized overhaul of enterprises, the overall supply of the industry is tight, but due to the weak downstream market demand, acetic acid market prices remain stable. Eastern China market enterprises have a lot of negative overhaul, a little low inventory, but the overall delivery is not good. Affected by the low price of acetic acid in Northwest China, acetic acid prices in North China have a negative impact. In terms of start-up, Yankuang Cathay Pacific 1.1 million tons/year plant overhaul is expected until the end of the month; Nanjing BP 500,000 tons/year plant overhaul is expected until the end of April; Hebei Jiantao 500,000 tons/year plant overhaul at the beginning of the month is expected to take place until April 20; Nanjing Celanese 1.2 million tons/year plant overhaul at the end of March is about to restart; Shanghai Wujing small plant is scheduled to overhaul in mid-April, and is expected to do so. Ten days or so; the overall starting rate is between 60 and 70%.

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Industry chain: upstream, the domestic methanol market is affected by the spring inspection in Northwest China, the overall supply of the industry is tight, up 0.99% in a week, the current average price is about 2452 yuan/ton; the acetate industry as a whole is weak, the industry has a flat buying atmosphere, there is no favorable support at the end of demand, mostly wait-and-see attitude; the PTA market is affected by centralized overhaul of equipment, the price gradually rebounds, but the demand side is weak. Current shock adjustment.

International: Affected by the stability of raw material methanol, the acetic acid Market in North America is stable, at present about 575 US dollars per ton; the acetic acid Market in Asia is affected by overhaul, the market supply has declined, but the demand side performance is not good, the overall stability is relatively stable, the quotation is 400-450 US dollars per ton; the acetic acid Market in Europe is flat, currently around 695 Euro/ton.

3. Future Market Forecast

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At present, the domestic acetic acid market is in a period of centralized maintenance. Enterprises have more overhauls until the end of April. Most areas have tight supply and low inventory. However, the overall demand is not good and the export side is not well supported. It is difficult to make a big improvement in the short term. Future markets need to pay attention to the start-up of enterprises. Acetic acid analysts at business associations predict that the acetic acid market will be dominated by shock consolidation in the near future.

Price Trend

On March 1, 2019, the tin ingot Market fluctuated frequently. The average price of the domestic market was 149,262.50 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month and 149,512.50 yuan/ton at the end of the week, up 0.17%.

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II. Market Analysis

Domestic market: This month, the domestic spot tin market prices fluctuated, although the rise and fall is not obvious, but the basic month is volatile. Towards the end of the month, due to the impact of the value-added tax reduction in April, the market declined and some traders had limited trading. By the end of the month, the mainstream domestic market turnover was 149500-150500 yuan/ton. Near the new month, the market is dominated by the following monthly tickets. The monthly ticket supply is gradually difficult to find. Due to the tax point factor, the rising water of the monthly ticket supply is relatively strong, and the mainstream is maintained at about 1500-2500 yuan/ton, while the higher one rises to around 3000 yuan/ton.

International market: This week, the US dollar continued to rise, returned to 97 points above, basic metals first suppressed and then recovered. Under the guidance of the tax reduction of VAT, domestic short positions were liquidated and left the market. Spot performance of various items was stronger than futures. The weekend price rebound recovered some of the decline in the week.

Import and Export: Washington, March 6, 2008. According to data released by the U.S. Department of Commerce, the import volume of tin in December 2018 was 3,295,122 kg, slightly lower than that in November, 3,355,254 kg, and the total import volume in January-December was 36,734,016 kg. The export volume of tin in the United States in December 2018 was 115,617 kg, and in November it was 129,672 kg. The total export volume in the whole year of 2018 was 2,070,371 kg.

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Jakarta, March 8, 2008. According to data released by Indonesia’s Ministry of Trade, the export volume of refined tin in Indonesia fell 22% in February from a year earlier to 5,562.46 tons. Indonesia is the world’s largest exporter of refined tin. Exports in February increased by 35% compared with 4,115.41 tons in January.

3. Prospects for the Future Market

In the data set of European and American economy in early next month, the US dollar is still rebounding strongly. On April 1, VAT in domestic market dropped to 13% and was officially implemented. In addition, with the coming Qingming Mini-long vacation, consumer expectations once again become the focus of the market. Market sentiment has been boosted. It is expected that a rebound will continue and a steady trend will be ushered in for tin.

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Price Trend

According to the price monitoring of business associations, as of April 2, the average price of domestic methanol market was 2404 yuan/ton, and the domestic methanol market was mainly volatile.

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II. Market Analysis

Products: Domestic methanol market maintains regional trend, while the mainland market weakens. On the port side, with the fluctuation of futures moving up, the new VAT policy should be implemented, and the impact of outflow of packaged goods should be paid more attention. In the mainland market, some installations in Northwest China have been inspected in spring, which supports the surrounding prices. However, under the current security supervision and environmental protection restrictions, the traditional downstream works such as formaldehyde are on the low side, the rework time of some installations is delayed, and the downstream demand is weak. It is expected that the short-term market will continue the trend of differentiation, and the implementation of spring inspection and futures performance in Northwest China should be paid more attention in the later period.

Domestic freight of methanol has been sorted out recently. The freight from the northern Inner Mongolia line to northern Shandong is 120-140 yuan/ton, and from the southern line to northern Shandong is also in this range. Part of Shanxi Province is 90-110 yuan/ton to the north of Shandong Province, and 100-150 yuan/ton to the north of Shandong Province and 120-180 yuan/ton to the south of Shandong Province. Xinjiang to North Shandong refers to 580 yuan/ton nearby, Ningxia to North Shandong 240 yuan/ton nearby.

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Industry chain: formaldehyde: raw material market collation, cost support is still acceptable; under the continuous impact of security inspection, Linyi formaldehyde enterprises start low load, formaldehyde resources supply tightened. At present, Linyi in Shandong Province is around 1600 yuan/ton, Zibo and its surrounding areas are around 1500-1550 yuan/ton. Acetic acid: The domestic glacial acetic acid market fell steadily at the beginning of the week. Due to the high storage pressure of individual enterprises in Henan, the continuous downward adjustment stimulates shipment. Then it affects the decline of the center of gravity in East and South China. However, the centralized maintenance of some devices in the field led to a slightly stronger mentality, such as in North China and East China. Under the coexistence of supply shortage, demand and export are difficult to improve, and the market climate is weak. Dimethyl ether: Dimethyl ether Market is stable, the market atmosphere is general. Manufacturers’shipments are blocked, but the market supply is low, and the sellers’ mentality is relatively strong. It is expected that the domestic dimethyl ether market will have a narrow fluctuation in the short term.

3. Future Market Forecast

Business Cooperative Perspective: On the positive side, futures: futures shocks rise, supporting spot prices to a certain extent; olefins: Inner Mongolia new MTO smoothly put into operation, supporting favorable factors; installations: the recent spring inspection of some northwest projects, short-term supply area inventory reduction expectations. On the negative side, demand side: recently, local dimethyl ether, acetic acid and other devices (planned) stopped, local demand decreased; downstream start-up: under the influence of safety supervision and environmental protection, the traditional downstream products such as formaldehyde start-up was limited, and the resumption of production time of some devices was delayed; macro: it is known that the implementation of fee reduction and tax reduction policy began in April, the cost side declined, and the incentive force of tax gap to arbitrage outflow will gradually increase. Highlight. Methanol analysts from business associations predict that the short-term domestic methanol market will continue to differentiate, and that the implementation of spring inspection in Northwest China and futures performance will need to be paid more attention in the later period.

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First, the trend of the market:

According to statistics, the price of phthalic anhydride declined slightly in March. At the end of the month, the price was 6750 yuan.ton, down 3.11% from 6966.67 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month and 6.01% from the same period last year. In Shandong province, phthalic anhydride is 6 600-6 800 yuan per ton, while in Jiangsu province, the main stream of phthalic anhydride negotiations is 6 800 yuan per ton. There is sufficient spot supply in the market. The naphthalene phthalic anhydride plant starts normally and is currently quoted at about 6 400 yuan per ton.

2. Market analysis:

Products: In March, the domestic market price of phthalic anhydride slightly declined, the market opening rate of phthalic anhydride was around 70%, the market of phthalic anhydride in East China was weak, downstream factories maintained just in need of purchasing, factory inventory pressure continued, high-end transactions were blocked, the mainstream of on-site neighbourhood source negotiations was 6600-6800 yuan/ton, and the mainstream of naphthalene source negotiations was 6400-6500 yuan/ton. The main market quotation is 6600-6800 yuan/ton. The market is weak and shocky. The quotation trend of enterprises is temporarily stable. The downstream construction is not high. The purchase is on demand. The wait-and-see mentality is strong. The domestic phthalic anhydride plant runs steadily, the spot supply of phthalic anhydride is sufficient, the market is not good, and the price of phthalic anhydride declines slightly.

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Industry chain: In March, Sinopec’s execution price of phthalic anhydride upstream phthalic anhydride was 6800 yuan/ton, and the actual market transaction price was 7100 yuan/ton. The phthalic inventory of East China Port was stable, and the phthalic inventory of dock was about 20,000 tons. The external quotation of o-phenyl is stable, the external quotation of o-xylene in Europe is US$1000.00/ton FOB; the external quotation of o-phenyl in East Asia and Southeast Asia is stable, the cost of importing o-phenyl is stable, the external quotation of o-phenyl is stable, the upstream price trend is stable, and the market price of phthalic anhydride is slightly lower. DOP prices in the lower reaches fell in March, reaching 8366.67 yuan/ton at the end of the month, and fell slightly by 0.3% in March. Recently, in the DOP market in Zhejiang, merchants’quotations were maintained at 8300-8400 yuan/ton, while downstream prices were at a low level. Demand for upstream phthalic anhydride was limited, and the price of phthalic anhydride market declined slightly.

Industry: Recent plasticizer industry trend is general, terminal downstream demand is limited, phthalic anhydride market price trend slightly declined.

3. Future market forecast:

Recently, the price trend of phthalic anhydride in the upstream has not changed much. DOP prices in the downstream have declined. Phthalic anhydride analysts of business associations believe that the market price trend of phthalic anhydride in April may be low, and the price will be around 6700 yuan/ton.

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