On July 4, the hydrofluoric acid commodity index was 109.26, unchanged from yesterday, down 22.20% from the peak of 140.43 points in the cycle (2018-02-21), and up 103.88% from the low of 53.59 points on November 30, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to date)

According to statistics, the domestic market price of hydrofluoric acid rose slightly on July 5. Up to now, the domestic market price of hydrofluoric acid is 12070 yuan/ton. The domestic start-up rate of hydrofluoric acid is less than 60%. Enterprises reflect that the supply of hydrofluoric acid on-site is tight at present, and the situation of on-site goods has improved recently. Because of the high raw material fluorite, some hydrofluoric acid factories The market price of hydrofluoric acid has risen with the increase of the ex-factory price. At present, the mainstream of hydrofluoric acid negotiations in the southern region is about 11500-12500 yuan/ton, while the price of hydrofluoric acid in the northern market is about 12000-12500 yuan/ton. Domestic hydrofluoric acid market prices increased, spot supply decreased slightly, but demand did not change very much, the price trend of hydrofluoric acid Market rose.

Recent downstream refrigerant products start at a low level, the upstream fluorite and hydrofluoric acid demand is general, the recent downstream refrigerant trading market is general, hydrofluoric acid product price shocks. Recent downstream refrigerant market transactions have improved, R22 refrigerant plant surface started at 60%, R22 market device start-up rate is temporarily stable, the main production enterprise bulk water factory offer price is between 18,000-19,000 yuan/ton, but the production enterprise does not have bulk water spot, mainly a small number of cylinders shipment. In addition, the actual demand side of the market has not changed much, and the delivery market has increased. The domestic market price trend of R134a is not good, the start-up rate of production enterprises remains low, the refrigerant market demand is general, and the manufacturers mainly export their products. However, the on-site transaction price has not changed much. Businessmen purchase on demand. Recently, due to the shortage of supply, the price trend of hydrofluoric acid market has risen.

Refrigerant market turnover is general, refrigerant industry equipment start-up rate remains low, for upstream hydrofluoric acid market demand is normal, but the hydrofluoric acid spot supply is tight, Business Analyst Chen Ling believes that the hydrofluoric acid market may continue to rise slightly.

Price Trend

According to the monitoring data of business associations, as of July 3, the average price of domestic ethanol market was 5370 yuan/ton, and the domestic ethanol market was stable.

II. Market Analysis

Products: The domestic alcohol market is stable. Enterprises in Northeast China have stable quotation and low inventory in downstream centralized purchasing enterprises; enterprises in Henan Province have stable quotation, low start-up and just-in-demand purchasing in downstream areas; enterprises in East China have weak quotation and poor downstream purchasing; enterprises in South China have stable quotation, just-in-demand purchasing in downstream areas and limited price of cassava alcohol supply in downstream areas. Stable performance.

Industry Chain: Corn: Auction grains flow into the market one after another, market supply tends to be loose, feed enterprises purchase with picking, the market as a whole is not smooth, price adjustment is narrow. Some trading enterprises actively released their warehouses. Some corn deep processing enterprises are about to be repaired in summer. In addition, the demand for breeding is currently in a relatively stable state. Therefore, we predict that in the context of the continued entry of grain auctions into the market, the corn market will experience a more likely period of weak adjustment until the end of the auction. However, from the overall trend, the late corn market is still bullish. Ethyl acetate: The domestic market of ethyl acetate is running steadily for the time being. Under the pressure of cost, there is no room for profit concession between the producers and the holders. However, the downstream off-season market is difficult to form continuous support for the purchase of ethyl acetate in stages, which leads to the increasing stock of suppliers and the weakening of the market of ethyl acetate. Raw material acetic acid is temporarily stable, which gives market cost support, and the shipment of mainstream production enterprises is still acceptable. It is expected that the market of ethyl acetate will be weak in the later stage.

3. Future Market Forecast

Later, it is expected that the short-term market will run smoothly. After centralized purchasing in the downstream, the market will perform smoothly and the demand for liquor will be light. In terms of raw materials, the prices of corn, cassava and molasses are on the high side of the production cost of enterprises, and the willingness of enterprises to bid is obvious. However, under the influence of supply dragging, ethanol analysts of business associations expect that the domestic ethanol market will remain stable in the short term.

I. Trend analysis

According to the data of business associations, the market of cis-butadiene rubber in June was mainly weak. The price at the beginning of the month was 11,350 yuan/ton. At the end of the month, the price fell slightly to 10,900 yuan/ton. The overall price at the end of the month fell by 3.96% compared with the beginning of the month.

II. Market Analysis

Petrochemical ex-factory price: domestic cis-butadiene Petrochemical ex-factory price was reduced by about 700 yuan/ton in June. According to the business association, as of June 30, the ex-factory price of cis-butadiene rubber in Daqing Petrochemical Company was 10,800 yuan/ton.

As far as installation is concerned, according to business associations, two sets of 160,000 tons/year high cis-butadiene rubber units in Daqing Petrochemical Company are in normal operation with a load of about 90%; Qilu Petrochemical Company is in full negative operation with a load of 70,000 tons/year high cis-butadiene rubber unit; Yanshan Petrochemical Company is in normal operation with a load of 80% and a stock of cis-butadiene about 1100 tons.

Demand: The main downstream tire production of synthetic rubber declined year-on-year, to a certain extent, forming a negative impact on the price of cis-butadiene rubber. According to statistics, in May 2019, the domestic output of rubber tyres was 72.043 million, down 2.33% annually, up 0.2% year-on-year; in January-May, the domestic output of rubber tyres was 33.3767 million, down 2.4% year-on-year.

Raw material: The decline in raw material prices has a negative impact on the price of butadiene rubber. In June, the price of raw material butadiene fell, from 8,551 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 8,401 yuan/ton at the end of the month, with an overall decline of 1.75%. Substantive purchasing demand of downstream terminal plants has not improved, which is bad for cis-butadiene rubber.

Import: In May 2019, China imported 507,000 tons of natural and synthetic rubber, which was 8.98% lower than the ring ratio, and 263.5 tons from January to May. Compared with the same period last year, it decreased by 3.5%.

3. Prospects for the Future Market

Xu Xiaokun, an analyst with business associations, believes that on the one hand, the price of raw material butadiene is weakening, which makes it difficult to support the price of cis-butadiene rubber; on the other hand, the market demand of downstream tires has not improved significantly, which is not conducive to cis-butadiene rubber as a whole, and the market of cis-butadiene rubber is expected to remain weak in the short

Commodity Index: On June 29, the polyacrylamide commodity index was 101.43, down 0.2 points from yesterday, down 5.32% from the highest point 107.13 in the cycle (2019-05-08), and up 5.97% from the lowest point 95.72 on April 10, 2019. (Note: Period refers to 2019-04-01 to date)

Price quotation: On June 1, the mainstream quotation of polyacrylamide (cationic) market was about 16900 yuan/ton, and on June 29, the mainstream quotation was 16566.67 yuan/ton. This month, the market showed a slight downward trend, with a decrease of 1.97%.

Main points of analysis: According to the monitoring data of the commodity by the Business Association (100ppi.com), the main quotation in the domestic market of polyacrylamide at present is about 16300-18000 yuan/ton for cations (PAM, molecular weight 12 million), and about 100-12000 yuan/ton for anions (PAM, molecular weight 12 million).

Industry chain: The normal start-up of this month’s factory delivery price is relatively stable, the upstream and downstream changes are not significant, market distributor quotation changes according to the number of its supply quotation slightly fluctuated, little impact; According to the manufacturer, due to stringent environmental inspection led to limited start-up, the amount of upstream products of polyacrylamide increased slightly, local prices increased slightly, but prices in most areas are not significant. Change.

Future market forecast: Focus on environmental protection factors and the start-up of future manufacturers, there is no big change in downstream demand, according to the current market supply, domestic polyacrylamide market prices will not change significantly.