I. price trend

According to the price monitoring of business agency, the ex factory price of domestic refrigerant R22 rose slightly this week. On October 21, the average ex factory price of mainstream manufacturers was 13933.33 yuan / ton, and the average weekend (25 days) price was 14166.67 yuan / ton, up 1.67% in the week, down 23.42% compared with the same period last year.

II. Market analysis

Product: this week, the market price of R22 in refrigerant market increased slightly, the upstream hydrofluoric acid market was weak, and the cost support for refrigerant was insufficient. At present, the production and domestic sales quota of R22 is tightening, and manufacturers’ confidence in pricing is increasing, which stimulates the enthusiasm of middlemen to store goods, and the supply of small packaging products of some enterprises is tight. The operation rate of production units has increased, the market of refrigerant R22 has improved, and the supply of some small packaging products is tight. According to the data monitoring of Yishe society, as of October 25, the quotation of R22 of Zhejiang Juhua Co., Ltd. is 16500 yuan / ton, that of Quzhou Jiuzhou Chemical Co., Ltd. is 12500 yuan / ton, that of Zhejiang lengwang science and Technology Co., Ltd. is 13500 yuan / ton, that of Longxun trade is 12500 yuan / ton, and the price is concentrated around 12500 yuan / ton – 16500 yuan / ton.

Industry chain: the price of upstream products in domestic hydrofluoric acid market has fallen sharply, the operation of domestic hydrofluoric acid plant is stable, the supply of goods in the site is sufficient, the situation of goods in hydrofluoric acid market is not good, and the market price keeps falling. The domestic market price of upstream product trichloromethane has fallen to a low level. At present, the overall market supply is abundant, and there is no obvious sign of improvement in the short term.

Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business agency, in the 42nd week of 2019 (10.21-10.25), there are 10 kinds of commodities rising month on month in the chemical sector, including 2 kinds of commodities rising by more than 5%, accounting for 2.4% of the number of commodities monitored in the sector; the top three commodities are epichlorohydrin (8.05%), sulfur (5.05%) and sulfuric acid (4.88%). There are 41 kinds of commodities decreased on a month-on-month basis, 4 kinds of commodities decreased by more than 5%, accounting for 4.8% of the number of commodities monitored in this sector; the top three products decreased were formaldehyde (37%) (- 9.21%), nitric acid (- 8.62%), acetic acid (- 5.29%). This week’s average was – 0.85%.

III. future forecast

According to the refrigerant analyst of the business association, the raw material end of refrigerant R22 is not well supported, the terminal demand has not been greatly improved, the manufacturer is affected by quota restrictions, the quotation is increased, the enthusiasm of traders to store goods is increased, but the downstream has limited acceptance of high prices, and it is expected that the refrigerant R22 will mainly be consolidated in the short term.

I. trend analysis

According to the data monitoring of the business agency, the domestic cobalt price has been adjusted in the near future, and the rising power of the cobalt market is insufficient. As of October 27, the price of cobalt was 285000.00 yuan / ton, down 5.11% from the average price of 300333.34 yuan / ton on October 1, up 2.03% from October 19. Overall, the recent adjustment of cobalt Market Volatility, cobalt price wide volatility and stability.

II. Market analysis

LME spot cobalt price

It can be seen from the figure that the spot cobalt price of LME will maintain stability after weakening in the near future, the overall trend of the international cobalt market will be weak, and the driving force for the rise of cobalt price will be insufficient, but at the same time, due to the influence of the cost of cobalt and the relationship between supply and demand in the future, the international cobalt price will fall in a limited space, and the international cobalt price will fluctuate and maintain stability. In the future, the domestic cobalt price is lack of power, and the shock adjustment may increase.

LME market March future cobalt price

It can be seen from the figure that the March futures cobalt price in LME market keeps stable after rising all the way, the international cobalt market is still optimistic about the future market, and the cobalt price remains strong. However, due to the poor performance of demand side such as new energy vehicles at this stage, the rise of cobalt market is limited, and the high price of cobalt has maintained stability.

III. future prospects

Bai Jiaxin, a data analyst at the business club, believes that the international cobalt market has remained stable in the near future, with insufficient impetus for the rise of cobalt price and limited space for the fall, which is generally high and stable. For the future market, cobalt market is still optimistic, and there is still room for cobalt price to rise. However, due to the poor demand performance of cobalt Market in the near future, the rising power of cobalt Market in the short term is insufficient and there is some downward pressure, and the future market of cobalt price is still dominated by shock adjustment. On the whole, the rising power of cobalt market is insufficient, and the falling pressure still exists. It is expected that the wide range adjustment of cobalt price in the future will be dominated.

I. price trend:

According to statistics, the trend of domestic p-xylene ex factory price this week is temporarily stable. The weekend average price is 6800 yuan / ton, which is flat compared with the price at the beginning of the week of 6800 yuan / ton, down 38.18% year on year.

II. Market analysis:

Products: this week, the domestic market price trend of p-xylene is temporarily stable, the domestic PX operation rate is maintained at more than 70%, the operation of new 600000 ton Hongrun unit is stable, the operation of Huizhou refining and chemical unit is stable, the first line of Fuhai Chuang unit is started, the operation of Pengzhou petrochemical unit is stable, the operation of Yangzi Petrochemical PX unit is normal, the operation of Jinling Petrochemical unit is stable, the operation of Qingdao Lidong unit is full load, Qilu Petrochemical equipment is stable. The plant is stable in operation, with the Urumqi petrochemical plant operating at about 50%, Hengli petrochemical plant operating normally, the domestic supply of p-xylene is normal, and the domestic market price trend of p-xylene is temporarily stable. This week, the operating rate of PX plant in Asia is more than 70%. The supply of PX in Asia is normal. The price of PX outside this week fluctuates. As of the weekend, the closing price of PX market in Asia is 773-775 US dollars / ton FOB South Korea and 793-795 US dollars / ton CFR China. Affected by the fluctuation of the original international oil price, the price of PX outside this week has little change. More than 50% of domestic products need to be imported, P X external closing price shocks to the domestic market to bring some support, the domestic PX market price trend is temporarily stable.

Industry chain: the closing price of domestic crude oil rose slightly this week. As of the 24th, the price of WTI crude oil futures market in the United States was $56.23/barrel and Brent crude oil futures market was $61.67/barrel. As a whole, the closing price of crude oil rose slightly this week, which had a certain cost support impact on the price of downstream petrochemical products, and the price trend of PX market was temporarily stable. This week, the price trend of PTA Market in the downstream slightly declined. As of the end of the week, the price trend of PX market in East China PTA market was about 4900-5000 yuan, and the price trend of PX market in the upstream raw material was temporarily stable. Recently, the starting load of PTA rose to about 92.5%. The restart of multiple units at the supply end was bad for PX market, and the terminal demand slightly changed, and the polyester starting remained stable. The starting load of downstream polyester is around 66%, and that of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms is 77%. The profit of the terminal weaving and texturing enterprises is not optimistic. The comprehensive starting rate of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms is around 77%, and the purchasing and stock up mood is general. The prices of polyester mainstream factories in Jiangsu and Zhejiang are mainly stable, the terminal demand is not significantly improved, and the market price trend of p-xylene is stable.

Industry: this week, the trend of the textile industry remained volatile, the textile industry’s operating rate changed little, the crude oil price rose slightly, and the raw material PX market was temporarily stable.

3. Future forecast:

Chen Ling, an PX analyst at business club, thinks that the crude oil price range is fluctuating in the near future, but PTA market price is weak, the price of PX external market changes little, the operating rate of downstream textile industry remains high, the supply of domestic PX market is normal, and the PX market price is expected to maintain 6800 yuan / ton next week.

I. melamine price trend:

According to the data of the large scale list of business agencies, the market price of melamine fell as of October 22, down 1.59% compared with that of October 21, and the mainstream price of melamine in China was 5400-6000 yuan / ton on October 22.

II. Market analysis:

Product: the domestic melamine market price fell on Tuesday. The melamine operation rate is at a high level, the terminal market demand is low, and the contradiction between supply and demand is prominent. At present, the mainstream price of melamine market in Xinjiang is around 5050 yuan / ton; the mainstream price of melamine market in Sichuan is around 5600 yuan / ton; the mainstream price of melamine market in Henan is around 5700 yuan / ton. The main quotation of melamine market in Shandong is around 5700 yuan / ton.

Industrial chain: the ex factory price (10.18-10.22) of urea in Shandong area in the upstream fell slightly, down 1.12%. The upstream liquid ammonia price (10.18-10.22) fell slightly, down 1.05%. Downstream papermaking, plate, molding plastics and other industries started in a downturn, the actual demand is still poor, and the confidence of the industry is insufficient.

3. Future forecast:

According to melamine analysts of the business association, the upstream raw material price is weak, the cost side is bearish, and the contradiction between supply and demand in the market is sharp, so there is no strong positive factor support for the moment. It is expected that in the short term, the melamine market will be dominated by weak consolidation operation.

I. price trend

The domestic ethanol market rose this week. According to the monitoring data of the business agency, the domestic ethanol market price at the beginning of the week was 5400 yuan / ton, while the domestic ethanol market price at the weekend was 5430 yuan / ton, up 0.56% in the week, 0.56% month on month, 2.65% lower than the same period last year.

II. Market analysis

Product: this week, the domestic ethanol market is mainly higher. In the week, the automobile transportation and logistics in Northeast China were still tense. Some large factories in Heilongjiang queued up to pick up the goods, which pushed up the positive mentality, but there was no significant volume in the transaction. The early contract was still executed for the shipment. The shipments in Jilin were shipped more frequently, and the liquor companies were full of wait-and-see mood, and there was no price increase operation. The supply of goods in Northeast China was limited, the local spot was tense, and the dealers were reluctant to sell, so the offer was made within the week. The price of raw corn in Central China recovered slowly. Meanwhile, the demand for liquor increased in winter, and the delivery of liquor by liquor enterprises was smooth. In the week, Huaxing device produced liquor, but the inventory of each company was not high, and the focus of trade and investment was high. The supply in South China was still limited, and part of molasses alcohol was used. There is no alcohol in the device, cassava alcohol is only produced in xintiande, and the stock is tight. Guangdong mostly relies on Guangxi’s source of goods for export, and the liquor companies’ offer remains high.

Industry chain: in the upstream, corn: up to now, the continuous harvest of new season corn in Northeast production area is 30% in Heilongjiang Province, and about 50% in Jilin Province. In the past few days, with the increase of new grain supply, the purchase price of northeast deep processing enterprises has been running in a weak position, but in the near future, with the reduction of production in some regions, the price of corn has stopped falling and stabilized. In the later period, we continued to pay attention to the listing of new grain in Northeast China.

In terms of downstream ethyl acetate, the domestic market for ethyl acetate held steady this week. Entering the market after the festival, no matter the manufacturer or the intermediate trader, or even the downstream customers are more cautious. On the one hand, the operation rate of raw acetic acid industry has risen in a straight line. Many early-stage parking and maintenance devices have been restarted at the end of September. In addition, the inventory accumulation during the National Day has led to a great pressure of decline. On the other hand, the operation rate of ethyl acetate industry is also not low. Although some devices have been reduced during the holidays, the supply side is still in a bad situation. After the festival, the downstream replenishment of the market is slightly supported, the delivery and investment are temporarily stable, and the manufacturer’s early stage is basically based on the delivery and storage. Although the late trading slowed down, the two units of Shandong Yankuang stopped unexpectedly, which gave the market some confidence. In the second half of the week, the northern market had a rising mentality, but the market range did not change much, and Shandong Yankuang restarted driving at the end of the week, which made it difficult for the market to rise in a short time. In terms of price, East China delivered 5750-5850 yuan / ton, low-end spot exchange, high-end acceptance; North China delivered 5700-5800 yuan / ton, South China 5950-6050 yuan / ton, low-end cash self delivery.

III. future forecast

The shortage of automobile transportation still affects the supply level of East China and other places, while the weather turns cold and the demand for liquor gradually rises. The ethanol analysts of the business agency predict that the domestic ethanol market may be temporarily strong in the short term, but in the long term, it is still difficult to push the price up in Northeast China, or it may be a negative market.

I. price trend

According to the large data list of business association, the average price of phosphoric acid on October 14 was 5433.33 yuan / ton, and on October 18 it was 5366.67 yuan / ton, down 1.23%, up 24.32% compared with the same period last year.

II. Market analysis

Product: the market price of phosphoric acid is mainly consolidated this week. Due to the insufficient support of raw material cost, yellow phosphorus enterprises have limited driving, and the price decline tends to be stable, resulting in the temporary stabilization and consolidation of phosphoric acid price. At present, the phosphoric acid market is not volatile, stable as a whole, and the on-site trading is light. The enterprises mainly supply orders to old customers, and some manufacturers slightly reduce their quotations, and partial supply is tight. As of October 18, the average market price of 85% industrial purified water phosphoric acid was about 5433.33 yuan / ton, Hubei Xingfa group quoted 5200 yuan / ton, Wengfu Dazhou quoted 5200 yuan / ton, Beijing Hangxing Hongda quoted 5200 yuan / ton, Guangxi Mingli group quoted 5800 yuan / ton, qianrui chemical quoted 4700 yuan / ton, Sichuan KANGLONG chemical quoted 5100 yuan / ton, Kunming South Yunnan industry and trade quoted 5900 yuan / ton, Sichuan Yida quoted 5200 yuan / ton, Guangxi Mingli group quoted 5800 yuan / ton, qianrui chemical quoted 4700 yuan / ton, Sichuan KANGLONG chemical quoted 5900 yuan / ton, Kunming South Yunnan industry and trade quoted 4700 yuan / ton. Prices in all regions are stable temporarily, mainly on a wait-and-see basis, and the market is weak as a whole.

Industry chain: this week, the phosphorus ore market as a whole maintained a stable situation. Large mining enterprises continued to digest inventory, kept more orders from old customers in the field, and kept a small number of purchases in the downstream. Yellow phosphorus market prices fell this week. At present, although the price of yellow phosphorus has declined, the price is still high. After the three phosphorus remediation meeting, it is rumoured that the enterprises that did not complete the rectification at the end of December will stop production and rectification. Affected by this news, the yellow phosphorus enterprises currently have limited driving. The price of yellow phosphorus declined and stabilized. The phosphate Market is under construction, and some enterprises mainly digest inventory.

Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business agency, in the 41st week of 2019 (10.14-10.18), there are 0 rising commodities, 4 falling commodities and 1 rising and falling commodity. The main commodities falling were yellow phosphorus (- 5.06%), phosphoric acid (- 1.23%), monoammonium phosphate (- 0.81%). This week’s average was – 1.56%.

III. future forecast

According to the phosphoric acid analyst of business and chemical branch, due to the insufficient support of raw material cost, the demand of phosphoric acid enterprises is mostly in a wait-and-see state, and the price fluctuates with the raw material end, and it is expected that the price of phosphoric acid will maintain stability in the short term.

I. price trend

According to the monitoring of bulk data from the business agency, the domestic trichloromethane market remained stable at a low level this week, and the price of trichloromethane in Shandong Province remained around 1900 yuan / ton in the week.

II. Cause analysis

Product reason: affected by the continuous weak demand of refrigerant market, the domestic market price of chloroform has fallen to a low level. At present, the overall market supply is abundant, and there is no obvious sign of improvement in the short term. At present, the price of chloroform in Shandong Province is about 1900 yuan / ton; the price of chloroform in Jiangsu Province is about 3800 yuan / ton; the price of Liwen in Jiangxi Province is about 2850 yuan / ton. In terms of unit start-up, Jinling, Shandong Province started normal operation, Luxi Chemical industry started 60%, Jiangsu Liwen unit started normal operation, Jiangxi Liwen unit started 50%.

Industry chain: in the upstream, the domestic methanol market has been adjusted in a week of shock, and the market has been mainly on the sidelines, with a decline of 0.25% in the week, and at present, about 2350 yuan / ton; the overall start-up of the liquid chlorine market has declined, but the downstream market has received goods flat, stable in the week, and at present, the enterprise reports about 300 yuan / ton more. In the downstream, the terminal demand of R22 market has not improved significantly, and some enterprises have issued maintenance plans in succession. At present, the factory price of bulk water is 12500-16000 yuan / ton; the pharmaceutical and agricultural intermediates industry is affected by environmental protection, and the construction is flat, and the purchase of rigid demand.

Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business agency, in the 41st week of 2019 (10.14-10.18), there are 14 kinds of commodities in the chemical industry sector, including 4 kinds of commodities with an increase of more than 5%, accounting for 4.8% of the number of commodities monitored in the sector; the top three commodities are DMF (12.00%), hydrogen peroxide (11.62%) and sulfur (5.32%). There are 38 kinds of commodities falling on a month on month basis, 8 kinds of commodities falling by more than 5%, accounting for 9.5% of the number of commodities monitored in the sector; the top three products falling are butadiene (- 9.07%), phenol (- 7.16%) and isopropanol (- 6.22%).

III. future forecast

According to the data analyst of methane chloride of business association, the market of trichloromethane is in the off-season at present, and there is no sign of recovery at the demand side. The price of trichloromethane has fallen to a low level, and there is insufficient downward space. It is expected that the market of trichloromethane will maintain a stable low level in the short term.

I. price trend

According to the data monitored by the business club, on October 6, pet water bottle manufacturers quoted 7012 yuan / ton, and on October 12, pet water bottle manufacturers quoted 7037.5 yuan / ton. The overall price changed little, with an overall increase of 0.36% this week, and the overall pet market tends to be stable.

II. Cause analysis

Product: the actual demand of pet this week is fair, and the overall transaction is relatively stable. This week, the main quotation range of pet water bottle manufacturers is 6900-7050 yuan / ton. The price of PTA in the upstream has been lowered, with considerable profit margin. This week’s market is mainly stable.

On October 11, the energy index was 804, the same as yesterday, down 22.91% from 1043 (2012-03-29), the highest point in the cycle, and up 57.34% from 511, the lowest point on March 01, 2016. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-12-01 to now) the overall market of rubber and plastic industry is mainly in shock consolidation.

III. future forecast

Pet analysts believe that: pet supply and demand balance in the near future, the market gradually stabilized. Future prices are mainly affected by the demand side, and it is expected that pet market will be consolidated in the short term.

Price Trend

According to the business association’s data, the domestic dry-process aluminium fluoride market price was stable this week. At the beginning of the week, the average market price was 10,000 yuan/ton, and at the end of the week, it was 10,000 yuan/ton. The price was flat compared with last week.

II. Market Analysis

The price of aluminium fluoride has been stable this week: at present, the price of aluminium fluoride in Henan is between 9400 and 9800 yuan/ton, while that in Shandong is between 9400 and 9900 yuan/ton. Zhengzhou Tianrui Grain Technology Co., Ltd. quoted 11,000 yuan per ton of aluminium fluoride, Shandong Luzeng Chemical Aluminum fluoride to 11,000 yuan per ton, Zhengzhou Zerun Energy Chemical Aluminum fluoride quoted 9,800 yuan per ton.

Industry Chain: Domestic hydrofluoric acid market price trend is slightly lower, up to the present domestic hydrofluoric acid market price is 9780 yuan/ton, domestic hydrofluoric acid start-up rate is less than 60%. Enterprises reflect that the current on-site supply of hydrofluoric acid is sufficient, recent on-site hydrofluoric acid immovable goods, due to the downstream demand is not improving, some hydrofluoric acid manufacturers continue to reduce prices, hydrofluoric acid market prices are small. The amplitude is low. At present, the mainstream of hydrofluoric acid negotiations in the southern region is about 9000-9500 yuan/ton, while the price of hydrofluoric acid in the northern market is between 9000-10000 yuan/ton. Domestic hydrofluoric acid market price maintained a low level, spot supply is sufficient, but the demand situation is poor, hydrofluoric acid market price slightly declined. Before National Day, the ex-factory prices of some aluminium fluoride manufacturers were lowered to promote sales. However, after National Day, the market prices of aluminium fluoride did not fall, and the market prices of aluminium fluoride remained stable.

3. Future Market Forecast

Analysts of Aluminum Fluoride Industry of Business Society Chemical Branch believe that after National Day, the price of hydrofluoric acid for upstream raw materials continues to decline, while the price of downstream Aluminum Fluoride market has been slightly relaxed, and the price of Aluminum Fluoride is expected to remain stable next week.

Price Trend

According to business association data monitoring, DOP prices fell after the festival, plasticizer Market weakened. As of October 12, the price of DOP in East China was 7600.00 yuan/ton, down 316.67 yuan/ton, or 4.00%, from 7916.67 yuan/ton before the festival (September 30), and 21.72% from the same period last year.

II. Market Analysis

Product analysis

Name of Commodity, Port, Weekly Price, Weekly Price, Rise or Fall, Price Type, Unit
DOP China 950.00 965.00-10.00 CFR USD/T
DOP South-East Asia 1180.00 1200.00-20.00 CFR USD/T
2010.10 Business Association www.100ppi.com

From the table, we can see that after the festival, DOP external quotation fell concussively and DOP market was negative. This week, China’s DOP external quotation quoted 950.00 yuan/ton, a slight drop of 10 US dollars/ton from last week’s external quotation; Southeast Asia’s DOP external quotation quoted 1180 US dollars/ton on October 12, a drop of 20 US dollars/ton from last week’s external quotation, plasticizer DOP external quotation fell; plasticizer enterprise DOP equipment start-up rate maintained, overall plasticizer DOP market increased.

Analysis of Industrial Chain

In terms of raw materials, after the festival, the price trend of DOP raw material phthalic anhydride dropped sharply, octanol price dropped sharply, overall DOP cost fell, DOP fell under greater pressure, and DOP price shocks fell. However, with the price of crude oil rising sharply and price pressure conducting downstream, the cost of DOP has increased, and the plasticizer DOP in the future has a certain upward momentum.

In terms of downstream demand, the recent volatility adjustment of PVC market after the festival resulted in a slight decline in volatility. Downstream PVC market shocks fell, DOP demand declined, overall DOP market in the future negative, DOP downward pressure still exists.

3. Future Market Forecast

Bai Jiaxin, a DOP data analyst, believes that after the festival DOP raw material phthalic anhydride and plasticizer prices fell sharply, DOP costs fell, PVC prices fell slightly, DOP demand was not good, increasing DOP downward pressure, DOP market in the future was negative. Recently, crude oil prices have risen and cost pressures are transmitted downstream. DOP market still has a certain upward momentum, but the overall downward pressure of plasticizer DOP market still exists, the upward momentum is insufficient, plasticizer market is difficult to rise substantially. Expected future DOP market shocks adjustment.