I. price trend

According to the data monitored by the business association, as of November 28, the average price of domestic premium DMF enterprises was 4683.33 yuan / ton, and the price range of manufacturers was 4600-5000 yuan / ton.

II. Market analysis

Products: the market of DMF in China is weak and stable, and the focus of real order transaction is low. Anyang device is planned to gradually resume output on the 30th, and the supply side is expected to increase slowly. At present, the market negotiation range is not large, and the South China region maintains rigid demand and weak balance of supply and demand in a short time. As of November 28, BASF, Yangzi, Shandong Hualu Hengsheng, Zhejiang Jiangshan chemical, Yanchang Xinghua and Shandong Jinmei had 5200 yuan / ton, 5700 yuan / ton, 5300 yuan / ton, 4700 yuan / ton and 4600 yuan / ton, respectively.

Industry: on November 27, the chemical industry index was 743, up 1 point compared with yesterday, down 26.87% compared with the highest point 1016 (2012-03-13), and up 23.83% compared with the lowest point 600 on January 31, 2016. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-12-01 to now)

IV. future forecast

DMF analysts believe that in the short term, the price consolidation and operation of DMF will be dominant, and the long-term market still needs to wait and see

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, in November, the price of lithium carbonate in East China market showed a downward trend in a step-by-step manner, and neither the industrial level nor the battery level showed a positive trend. On November 27, the average price of industrial lithium carbonate in East China was 48400 yuan / ton, 8.33% lower than that at the beginning of the month. On November 27, the average price of battery grade lithium carbonate in East China was 54800 yuan / ton, 8.97% lower than that at the beginning of the month.

According to the observation of market changes, the price of lithium carbonate has been slightly lower since the beginning of November. Affected by the weak demand in the downstream market, the industry transaction is flat, so the enterprise has to reduce the price to ensure the delivery of products, and the supply and demand of the market has not improved significantly. By the end of November, the price of lithium carbonate continued to decline, and the downstream power battery market had no difference in production reduction, which made the market transaction more difficult. It is understood that in the current lithium carbonate supply market, some enterprises expand production “to make up the price by quantity”, while others are struggling to maintain production because the price breaks through the cost line. With the market entering the annual single negotiation period in the fourth quarter, the price of lithium carbonate may continue to be under pressure, so it is difficult for the overall price of the industry to rise.

At present, the market price of lithium carbonate is in a strong downturn, and smelters may reduce production to cope with pessimistic prices. In addition, as the end of the year approaches, some enterprises may also sell goods at a low price in order to collect money, and there may still be pressure on prices in the fourth quarter. This month, the comprehensive price of industrial grade lithium carbonate is in the range of 45000-52000 yuan / ton, and the comprehensive price of battery grade lithium carbonate is in the range of 52000-57000 yuan / ton.

According to analysts of lithium carbonate of business association, at present, due to the downriver market being shrouded in pessimistic expectations, the price of lithium carbonate is still in low volatility, and the supply and demand pattern of the spot market is still declining. The price fluctuation can focus on whether the demand for stock up during the spring Festival has improved. It is expected that the low price of lithium carbonate will continue in the short term.

Last week (11.18-11.22), the price of NBR was stable, and the price of NBR was 16400 yuan / ton, up or down 0%.

Low price of raw butadiene

Butadiene price is low, which weakens the support for NBR. According to the monitoring of the business agency, last week (11.18-11.22) saw 8634 yuan / ton of butadiene at the beginning of the week and 8590 yuan / ton at the end of the week, with a slight decline of 0.51% overall.

Stable ex factory price of petrochemicals

The unit of NBR manufacturer in China is in normal operation, the factory price of NBR is stable, and the overall operation rate of NBR unit is around 70%. According to the business agency, Lanzhou Petrochemical’s 65000 T / a unit is in normal operation. This week, the factory price of Lanhua NBR is stable. At present, n41e reports 14700 yuan / ton.

Downstream inquiry on demand

The demand of the downstream plant of NBR is weak, and the demand inquiry for NBR is more on demand, so the overall NBR market is relatively weak and stable.

Outlook for the future

According to Xu Xiaokun, an analyst of business agency, the price of raw materials is low, and the downstream inquiry is on demand, so the overall NBR is slightly weak. However, driven by the rise of Shanghai Rubber and general purpose synthetic rubber, the NBR market is expected to rise tentatively in the later period.

On November 25, the fluorite commodity index was 100.97, unchanged from yesterday, down 20.80% from 127.49 (2019-01-03), the highest point in the cycle, and up 105.18% from 49.21, the lowest point on December 18, 2016. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

According to statistics, the price trend of domestic fluorite is temporarily stable. As of the 25th day, the average price of domestic fluorite is 2877.78 yuan / ton. In recent years, the domestic fluorite device has been started normally, the mine and flotation device in the field have been started normally, the supply of fluorite in the field is normal, and the price of downstream hydrofluoric acid has been kept low in the near future. For the purchase on demand in the fluorite market, the stock situation in the fluorite field is general, and the price trend of fluorite market is temporarily stable. In the near future, the downstream units are under normal operation, the spot supply of fluorite in the site is sufficient, and the downstream demand of the terminal is not improved, resulting in weak market price. As of the 25th, the price of 97 fluorite wet powder in Inner Mongolia was 2600-2800 yuan / ton, that of 97 fluorite wet powder in Fujian was 2600-2900 yuan / ton, that of 97 fluorite wet powder in Henan was 2600-2900 yuan / ton, that of 97 fluorite wet powder in Jiangxi was 2600-3000 yuan / ton, and that of fluorite remained low.

The market price trend of hydrofluoric acid in the downstream of fluorite remains low. As of the 25th, the domestic market price of hydrofluoric acid is 9600 yuan / ton. The decline of the market price of hydrofluoric acid has a negative impact on the upstream market of fluorite. However, the recent operation of hydrofluoric acid plant is generally, the demand for fluorite is weakened, and the price of fluorite remains low. In the near future, the transaction market of refrigerant downstream of the terminal is general, and the domestic refrigerant R22 market is volatile. From the perspective of market supply, the market of refrigerant R22 continues to be weak, the manufacturer’s production device reduces the starting load, the supply capacity of the market source has declined, and the inventory pressure has been buffered. In terms of demand, the downstream air-conditioning manufacturers maintain the air-conditioner, and the demand is only reduced but not increased. The price of domestic large enterprises is 12000-14000 yuan / ton. The price trend of domestic R134a market remains low. At present, R134a market has entered the off-season, downstream demand is relatively weak, and the operating rate of several R134a production enterprises remains low. However, in the near future, the hydrofluoric acid market has a rising trend, and the supply of fluorite market in the North has declined, so the fluorite market may be supported by favorable conditions.

Generally speaking, the market of the downstream refrigerant industry has not changed much. With the low temperature, the supply of fluorite in the North has gradually declined. In addition, the recent market of hydrofluoric acid has a rising trend. Chen Ling, an analyst of the business agency, thinks that the market price of fluorite may be slightly higher.

According to statistics, the price trend of hydrofluoric acid in China this week is stable. As of the end of the week, the price is 9600 yuan / ton, which is the same as that at the beginning of the week, down 35.34% year on year.

Product: the price trend of hydrofluoric acid is stable this week. In the near future, the on-site manufacturers are generally on the way. The operating rate of the downstream refrigerant industry remains at a low level. The domestic market demand for hydrofluoric acid is limited. In addition, the domestic hydrofluoric acid plant maintains a high operating rate. The domestic spot supply is sufficient, and the domestic price trend is stable. By the end of the week, the mainstream of hydrofluoric acid negotiations in the south is 9000-9500. The price of hydrofluoric acid in the northern market is 9000-10000 yuan / ton. In the near future, the price of domestic hydrofluoric acid market is stable, the demand of downstream refrigerant industry is poor in the near future, the supply of hydrofluoric acid manufacturers is not good, and the market price in the market remains low, but some manufacturers report that there is a trend of increase in the near future. By the end of the week, the mainstream of domestic hydrofluoric acid negotiations in Fujian was about 9000-9500 yuan / ton, the price of hydrofluoric acid in Shandong was 9000-10000 yuan / ton, the price of hydrofluoric acid in Jiangxi was 9000-9500 yuan / ton, the price of hydrofluoric acid in Inner Mongolia was 9000-10000 yuan / ton, and the price trend of hydrofluoric acid market remained volatile.

Industry chain: the price of fluorite in the upstream of hydrofluoric acid is stagnant this week. As of the end of this week, the factory price of fluorite is 2861.11 yuan / ton. The supply of fluorite in China is normal, but the price of fluorite has little change. The upstream cost price has a certain impact on the cost support of hydrofluoric acid market. With the decrease of gas temperature, the supply of fluorite in the north will gradually decline. At that time, the price of fluorite may rise, which will affect the supply of hydrogen There are some positive expectations for the fluoroacid market. In the near future, the trading market of downstream refrigerants in the terminal market is general, and the domestic market price of refrigerant R22 remains low. From the perspective of market supply, the market price of refrigerant R22 continues to be weak, the manufacturer’s production device reduces the starting load, the market supply capacity has declined, and the inventory pressure has been slowed down. In terms of demand, the downstream air-conditioning manufacturers maintain the air-conditioner, and the demand only decreases but not increases. The main price of domestic large enterprises is 12000-14000 yuan / ton. The price trend of R134a market in China is at a low level, the unit operating rate of production enterprises remains at a low level, the market demand for refrigerants is reduced, and manufacturers mainly export their products. However, the market price of hydrofluoric acid is stable for the time being. In the near future, the price trend of the downstream product aluminum fluoride remained low, at the weekend was 9166.67 yuan / ton. This week, the price trend was stable, the downstream market did not improve, and the price trend of hydrofluoric acid market remained volatile.

Industry: this week, the upstream raw materials fluorite and hydrofluoric acid market spot supply is normal, coupled with the general trading market of the downstream refrigerant industry, hydrofluoric acid market price trend is stable.

In the near future, the operation rate of domestic refrigerant unit has not changed much. For the demand of hydrofluoric acid market, purchase is required, and the spot supply in hydrofluoric acid field is normal. However, in the near future, the supply of raw material market has decreased, and the price of fluorite has been supported to some extent. Chen Ling, an analyst of hydrofluoric acid in business association, thinks that the market price of hydrofluoric acid will rise slightly next week.

1. Trade name: magnesium ingot (9990)

2. Latest price (November 21, 2019): 14275 yuan / ton

3. Key points of analysis: at present, the price of magnesium ingot keeps falling, and the market is relatively weak. It is reported that the actual transaction price of magnesium ingots in the main production area is in the 14000 line, with small trading volume and sporadic transactions. Some magnesium enterprises with small inventories are beginning to show no signs of covering the goods due to the low price. On the one hand, due to the fact that market participants continue to wait and see the one-way downward market, there are not many purchases in the market, the demand is the main factor, and a small number of traders are mainly shipping according to orders; on the other hand, non main magnesium enterprises are less willing to ship at low prices, and their willingness to hold prices is rising, so they prefer to increase inventory rather than ship at low prices.

4. Future market forecast: the overall market is weak and the demand is poor. It is expected that the price of magnesium ingot will be weak and stable in the near future, and the actual transaction situation in the market will be concerned in the later stage.

I. price trend

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, the price of domestic methanol market is reflected in the rise and fall among regions. As of November 20, the average price of domestic methanol market is 2086 yuan / ton. Prices fell 11.23% month on month and 21.76% year on year.

II. Market analysis

Products: domestic methanol market performance is different, up and down are reflected. In terms of the mainland market, the atmosphere in some regions is fair and the trend continues to rise under the partial stop of sales; at present, the port market is in linkage with each other during the maintenance period, showing weakness, and needs to pay attention to the futures market dynamics in the short term. With the decline of port market price, the price difference between the port and the mainland has been widened, some imported goods continue to flow into the mainland market, and some enterprises in Shandong have been selling less goods. It is expected that the market will show a trend of differentiation in the near future. In addition, orange early warning will start in Wen’an, Hebei Province. The board factory plans to shut down for 5-7 days, and some board factories in Henan Province are also limited.

In terms of Futures: on November 19, the position increase of methanol futures main contract ma2001 of zhengshangsuo fell sharply, with a minimum of 1891, closing down 36 in 1925, 3.487 million transactions and 412610 additional positions.

Industry chain: formaldehyde: Recently, due to the parking of plate factories in Shandong formaldehyde market, the stock is high, the goods are not smooth, and the trend is weak. Among them, the price of Linyi and its surrounding areas is around 1000-1500 yuan / ton, the high-end price is in Zibo area, and the low-end price is below 1000 yuan / ton.

Acetic acid: the domestic glacial acetic acid market is stable and soft. The inventory of Northern Enterprises is low and the offer is firm. The inventory of enterprises in Northwest China decreased, and the offer was slightly increased. The enterprises in Lunan and central China have not signed the bill smoothly, and the actual bill has declined. As a whole, the delivery of low-cost orders and long-term orders in the early stage is close to the end, the spot sales in the later stage are relatively increased, and the downstream demand is low, and the procurement is poor. Export negotiations are rare.

Dimethyl ether: the market of dimethyl ether rose slightly, and the main units arranged well, but there was no obvious positive support on the news, the seller’s rise was limited, and it is expected to continue to rise slightly in the short term.

III. future forecast

From the perspective of the business community: on the positive side, cost: it is reported that the price of natural gas has been strong in the near future, and the methanol cost in southwest and other places has been fairly supported; demand: partial sales have been stopped, supporting the trend of some regions; the central bank continues to release water, carry out the net investment after the reverse repurchase operation of 120 billion yuan, and further relax. On the negative side, the external market: the price of the external market is low, and the imported goods impact the price of the domestic market; supply: the port inventory remains high, and the overall construction in the mainland is stable, and the supply side is relatively abundant; the port price is low at present, part of the spot flows into Shandong and other places, impacting the local market. The methanol analysts of the business club predict that the short-term domestic methanol market is dominated by differential consolidation, and there is a greater possibility of regional ups and downs.

I. price trend:

According to the data monitoring of the business agency, the acetic anhydride market in November fell sharply and remained stable. As of November 19, the average price of acetic anhydride quoted by enterprises was 4862.50 yuan / ton, down 512.50 yuan / ton or 9.53% compared with 5375.00 yuan / ton quoted at the beginning of the month (November 1), and down 33.69% compared with the same period last year.

II. Market analysis:

Product analysis:

In November, the price of acetic acid, the raw material of acetic anhydride, fluctuated and remained stable, while the price of methanol fell sharply. The demand for acetic anhydride is general, the operating rate of acetic anhydride manufacturers is maintained, the supply of acetic anhydride is stable, the downstream procurement enthusiasm is general, the customers purchase on demand, the overall market of acetic anhydride is mixed, the downward pressure of acetic anhydride market is still there, and the upward momentum is insufficient.

Industry chain factor analysis:

It can be seen from the figure that in November, the price of acetic acid fluctuated and stabilized, the price of acetic anhydride raw material acetic acid remained stable, the price of acetic acid wanted to rise powerlessly, the cost of acetic anhydride was temporarily stable, which was good for acetic anhydride. The cost of acetic anhydride enterprises is stable, the downward pressure of acetic anhydride market is reduced, and the upward momentum is insufficient.

In terms of methanol, the price of methanol rebounded in November, the overall cost of acetic anhydride produced by methanol method decreased, and the overall market of acetic anhydride was negative. From the figure, it can be seen that the decline rate of acetic anhydride was far higher than that of methanol, and there was less downward pressure on acetic anhydride in the future, and there was limited space for acetic anhydride to fall in the future. Overall, the negative pressure on raw materials of acetic anhydride weakened, which was positive, but the momentum for the rise was insufficient. It is expected that the market of acetic anhydride will be weak and stable in the future.

3. Future forecast:

According to Bai Jiaxin, an analyst of acetic anhydride data of business association, the market of acetic anhydride raw materials picked up in November. After the price of acetic acid rose in some regions in November, it remained stable. The price of acetic acid rose weakly. After the price of methanol fell, the price picked up. The cost of acetic anhydride fell, but the price of raw materials rose in the near future. The downward pressure of acetic anhydride weakened and the rising power was insufficient. In terms of downstream customers, the demand of acetic anhydride was insufficient Generally, downstream customers purchase on demand, and the demand for acetic anhydride is limited, so the power for acetic anhydride to rise is insufficient. On the whole, the downward pressure of acetic anhydride weakens and the upward momentum is insufficient, and the price of acetic anhydride in the future mainly fluctuates and stabilizes.

On November 18, the PX commodity index was 54.40, unchanged from yesterday, down 46.88% from 102.40 (2013-02-28), the highest point in the cycle, and up 19.43% from 45.55, the lowest point on February 15, 2016. (Note: cycle refers to 2013-02-01 to now).

According to statistics, on the 18th, the domestic market price trend of p-xylene was temporarily stable, the operation of new 600000 ton plant in Hongrun was stable, the operation of petrochemical plant in Pengzhou was stable, 50% of petrochemical plant in Urumqi was started, one line of aromatics plant in Fuhai Chuang was started, CNOOC Huizhou refining and chemical plant was overhauled, the PX plant in Hengli Petrochemical was put into operation, and other units were temporarily stable. As the new plant was put into operation, domestic The market supply of xylene is normal, and the market price trend of p-xylene is stable temporarily. The operating rate of PX plant in Asia is about 80%. On November 15, the closing price of p-xylene market in Asia dropped by 6 US dollars / ton, and the closing price was 767-769 US dollars / ton fob in South Korea and 787-789 US dollars / ton CFR in China. Over 50% of domestic products need to be imported. The decline of external market price has a certain negative impact on the domestic market price of p-xylene, but the domestic market price trend is temporarily stable.

WTI crude oil futures rose on November 15 to $57.72 a barrel, or $0.95 a barrel, while Brent crude oil futures rose to $63.30 a barrel. The International Energy Agency said the global oil market could remain “calm” next year, as surging production outside OPEC and high inventories make it easy for consumers to get supplies, the agency said in its monthly report Oil suppliers outside OPEC – driven by the United States, Brazil, Norway and Guyana – will increase their supply by 2.3 million barrels a day by 2020, almost double the increase in global oil demand, according to the report. Crude oil production is expected to increase by about 100000 barrels a day from last month. Crude oil prices rose and domestic p-xylene prices were stable. In recent years, the textile industry market has been volatile, the PTA Market operating rate has declined, and the PTA price trend has continued to decline. The average price of the offer in East China is about 4700-4800 yuan / ton. As of the 15th day, the domestic PTA operating rate is about 88%, and the polyester industry operating rate is about 87.5%. Due to the sufficient supply in PTA field, the transaction atmosphere is general, and the purchase is dominated by traders, followed by sporadic polyester factories, which are affected by the original oil price The price of PTA in the downstream market remains low due to grid shock. It is expected that the PX market price will maintain 6800 yuan / ton in the short term.

I. price trend

According to the monitoring of business agency data, as of Friday (November 16), the average price of n-butanol in the mainstream region was 6200 yuan / ton (including tax), which was 1.36% higher than that of last Friday (November 11). At present, the main quotation of n-butanol in China is about 6150-6700 yuan / ton.

II. Market analysis

Product: the center of gravity of n-butanol market this week is relatively stable compared with last week. At the beginning of this week, the load of n-butanol plant has increased. However, some n-butanol plants have been delayed to restart, resulting in tight spot supply in the market, and the market center of gravity has moved up slowly. As the price of raw material propylene has risen, the cost of n-butanol has increased, the price has increased slightly, and the transaction status is stable. In the middle of the week, the load of some units of n-butanol was restored, the load of units of Shandong large factory was increased, and the Northeast unit was restarted. The market supply of n-butanol is expected to continue to increase. The wait-and-see atmosphere of buying is not reduced, the market supply is improved, and the downstream purchase is on demand, the overall transaction is normal, and the price fluctuation is not big. At present, the trading volume of n-butanol in East China market is around 6200-6300 yuan / ton; the quotation of Wanhua chemical at the beginning of this week is slightly increased by 100 yuan / ton compared with that of last week, the ex factory quotation in North China is 6200 yuan / ton, the ex warehouse quotation in East China is 6450 yuan / ton, and the ex warehouse quotation in South China is 6700 yuan / ton. The quotation in this week continues to be stable without fluctuation.

Industry chain: this week, the overall price of propylene market is stable, moderate and slight increase, and the trend is weak. The market supply is slightly increased, the overall supply and demand is stable, the manufacturer’s shipment is normal, the main price is stable, and the propylene inventory is still low. However, some downstream enterprises stop for maintenance, and the demand is reduced. As of November 16, the market turnover is still around 7240-7550 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price is 7350 yuan / ton.

III. future forecast

According to the analysis of the data division of the business agency, the supply side of the n-butanol market will increase, and the supply and demand pressure will gradually expand in the later period. It is difficult for propylene on the cost side to drive n-butanol. It is expected that the market of n-butanol will decline again next week.