I. price trend
According to the data monitored by the business agency, on October 30, the domestic carbon black quotation was 7000 yuan / ton, with a slight fluctuation in the price range of 100-300 yuan / ton. This month’s carbon black market mainly fluctuated.
After the carbon black market fell sharply in 2018, it is difficult for the price to rise again. In the first three quarters of 2019, the price fluctuated little and the market did not rise or fall.
II. Market analysis
Industrial chain:
This month, the overall bottom of carbon black and its downstream market has stabilized, and the gross profit rate of carbon black products has rebounded on a month on month basis. However, due to the factors such as high price operation of domestic carbon black raw oil, weak demand of automobile industry, and continuous fluctuation of international crude oil price, the sales price of carbon black, the main product, has declined significantly compared with the same period last year, and the comprehensive factors have led to a sharp decline in the gross profit of carbon black on a year-on-year basis.
Carbon black branch of China Rubber Industry Association issued the proposal on self discipline of carbon black industry. According to the proposal, since the second half of last year, the carbon black industry has encountered unprecedented difficulties, and the whole industry has lost money. In order to ensure the normal production and operation of carbon black industry, it proposes that all enterprises should consciously limit production, and limit production by 10% based on the original production according to market demand- 20%, to ensure the balance of supply and demand in the market; to stabilize the carbon black raw oil market, not to participate in the bad competition behavior of driving up the price of raw oil; to stabilize the market sales, according to the reasonable profit space sales; for the Chinese carbon black exported to the international market, the same requirements cannot be disordered competition.
listed company:
On October 14, domestic carbon black enterprises Longxing Chemical and Yongdong Co., Ltd. issued the performance forecast for the first three quarters.
Data shows that the net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies of Longxing Chemical is expected to be 18 million yuan – 26 million yuan, down 81.64% – 73.48% year on year. In the same period last year, the profit was 98.0242 million yuan.
The net profit of Yongdong shares attributable to the listed shareholders is expected to be 65.4757 million yuan – 75.4757 million yuan, down 71.38% – 67.01% year on year. The profit of the same period last year was 60.8606 million yuan.
On October 15, black cat Co., Ltd. issued the performance forecast for the first three quarters of 2019: it is estimated that the highest net profit loss is 136 million yuan, and the profit of the same period last year is 440 million yuan. According to the announcement, during the period of performance forecast: from January 1, 2019 to September 30, 2019, the net profit loss attributable to shareholders of the listed company is 116 million yuan – 136 million yuan, and the profit of the same period of last year is 440 million yuan.
Black cat carbon black, Longxing Chemical, Yongdong shares, profitability has declined to varying degrees.
III. future forecast
According to the carbon black data division of the chemical branch of the business society, carbon black is not significantly positive in the short term and is expected to remain low in the future.