On February 26, WTI crude oil futures market in the United States continued the previous two trading days. The price continued to fall, with a large decline. The main contract was 48.73 yuan / barrel, down $1.17 (- 2.34%). Brent crude oil futures market price also continued to fall sharply, the main contract at 52.81 US dollars / barrel, down 1.45 US dollars (- 2.77%), especially WTI crude oil has fallen to a new one-year low. Crude oil continued to decline sharply on Wednesday, mainly due to the warming of the global epidemic.

On Wednesday, the market atmosphere was still dominated by the demand fear and panic atmosphere triggered by the previous two trading days’ epidemic. Previously, the impact of China’s epidemic has lowered the expectations of various agencies on the growth of global crude oil demand in 2020, generally more than 300000 barrels / day lower than the 1.2 million barrels at the beginning of the year. After the global spread of Japan, South Korea, Italy, Iran, etc., and after the agencies lowered their growth expectations, Zhou Goldman Sachs has cut crude oil demand from 1.2 million barrels to 600000 barrels per day. It can be seen that pessimistic expectations have an unprecedented and more serious pressure on oil prices.

At present, there are also new supply risk factors in the market. In addition to the decline of crude oil production in Libya and the upgrade of export restrictions in Venezuela, there are new news in the market. On Wednesday, a fire broke out in the Carson refinery of Marathon Oil Company, the second largest refining company in the United States. The refinery is located in California with a capacity of 12 million tons / year. Los Angeles Fire Department said a cooling tower exploded before the fire broke out at marathon Carson refinery. The latest news shows that the fire at marathon Carson refinery has been controlled. In addition, the Afghan Interior Ministry said Wednesday night that a motorcycle bomb exploded in Kabul, injuring nine civilians. At present, the United States refinery fire combined with the geopolitical turmoil in the Middle East has not played a role in stabilizing the decline of the crude oil market. At present, the market is still dominated by the pessimistic atmosphere of the epidemic.

In addition, whether OPEC will deepen production reduction is still the focus of the market. The OPEC + meeting will be held in Vienna from March 5 to 6. Before that, any information released by the market will have an impact on the oil price. The current oil price level and the pessimistic demand expectation may further promote OPEC +’s deepening production reduction policy.

Generally speaking, the business community believes that the crude oil will remain low in the near future, the superposition of market risk factors will lead to the increase of crude oil amplitude, and the oversold response of the market will further increase the long risk. In the near future, the market or low volatility does not exclude the possibility of continuing to explore the bottom, but with the further digestion of the impact of the epidemic and the stimulation of supply risk, crude oil will have a rebound demand.

1、 Price trend

According to the data monitoring of the business agency, on February 25, the operation of the domestic phosphorus ore market was temporarily stable, and the market price of 30% grade phosphorus ore was around 350-440 yuan / ton based on the quotation in the comprehensive sample area, which was basically the same as that a week ago. On February 24, the phosphorus ore commodity index was 74.01, unchanged from yesterday, down 37.17% from 117.80 (2012-07-09), the highest point in the cycle, and up 44.04% from 51.38, the lowest point on December 24, 2018. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

2、 Market analysis

Products: at present, the trading and investment in the phosphorus chemical industry market has slightly improved, the downstream enterprises are gradually back to work, and the overall market demand is gradually improving, but at present, the commencement of the phosphorus ore market is slow, most of the on-site enterprises have not yet resumed production, and the overall commencement still remains low, there are not many new orders on-site, and the recovery of the transaction is slow, mainly to digest inventory. At present, in Guizhou Province, the price of phosphate rock in Fuquan Huifa Mining Co., Ltd. is stable. The price of 30% grade phosphate rock car board is 350 yuan / ton; the price of 28% grade phosphate rock car board is 310 yuan / ton; the reference price of 30% grade phosphate ore train platform in Kaiyang Guanglong Mining Co., Ltd. is 350 yuan / ton. Hubei Province: the reference price of 28% grade phosphorus ore in Liushugou is 380-390 yuan / ton, and the reference price of 30% grade phosphorus ore is 430-440 yuan / ton. At present, the market is mainly weak.

Industry chain: at present, the supply shortage of yellow phosphorus market is intensified, and the quotation of yellow phosphorus enterprises is greatly increased. At present, the mainstream quotation of Yunnan yellow phosphorus is about 17600 yuan / ton. The main quotation in Sichuan is about 17000 yuan / ton. The main quotation of yellow phosphorus in Guizhou is about 17200 yuan / ton. Yellow phosphorus enterprises started to improve to some extent, but the spot supply is still tight, the market price or a small amount of space to explore.

3、 Future forecast

According to the analysis of the data division of the business association, as many mining enterprises have not yet started, and the commencement time is mostly extended to the end of the month or the beginning of the next month, it is expected that today’s phosphorus ore market is dominated by weak and stable operation. Subsequently, with the resumption of the market, the supply of raw materials will be released. In addition, the market is expected to maintain a strong upward space in spring.

1、 Price trend

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, the ex factory price of calcium carbide in Northwest China rose slightly this week. This week, the average ex factory price of mainstream carbide manufacturers increased from 2840.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 2890.00 yuan / ton at the end of the week, up 1.76%, up 5.47% year on year. On the whole, carbide market rose slightly this week, with the carbide commodity index of 75.72 on February 21.

2、 Trend analysis

（1） Products:

The ex factory price of calcium carbide in Northwest China this week slightly increased: oveganone’s quotation for calcium carbide this weekend was 2900 yuan / ton, up 50 yuan / ton compared with the beginning of the week; Shaanxi coal industry’s quotation for calcium carbide this weekend was 2830 yuan / ton, up 30 yuan / ton compared with the beginning of the week; Inner Mongolia China United’s quotation for calcium carbide this week was 2820 yuan / ton, temporarily stable compared with the beginning of the week; Ningxia Xingping’s quotation for calcium carbide this weekend was 2 yuan / ton 950 yuan / ton, up 100 yuan / ton compared with the beginning of the week.

This weekend, the actual transaction price of carbide in Northwest China is about 2800-3000 yuan / ton: the mainstream transaction price of carbide in Shaanxi is about 2800-2900 yuan / ton; the mainstream transaction price of carbide in Ningxia is about 2950 yuan / ton; the mainstream transaction price of carbide in Inner Mongolia is about 2800 yuan / ton, and the actual transaction price is mainly negotiated.

（2） Industrial chain:

Upstream raw material Market: this week, the ex factory quotation of Lancan is temporarily stable, the quotation of small materials is 730.00 yuan / ton, the quotation of medium materials is 820 yuan / ton, and the quotation of large materials is 880 yuan / ton. The price of raw materials in the upstream is low and consolidated, and the cost support is insufficient, which has a negative impact on the price of calcium carbide.

Downstream market: PVC factory price fell slightly this week. PVC price decreased from 6675.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 6637.50 yuan / ton at the end of the week, a decrease of 0.56%, up 4.73% year on year. The price of PVC in the lower reaches of this week fell slightly, but compared with last year, the price is higher, and the PVC plant in the lower reaches is starting gradually, which also has a high enthusiasm for calcium carbide procurement. As a whole, PVC market in this week has a positive impact on the price of calcium carbide.

3、 Future forecast

In late February, carbide market fluctuated slightly. The price of raw materials in the upstream is low, and the cost support is not enough, but the transportation situation tends to be normal gradually, the PVC market in the downstream is also rising gradually, and the customers in the downstream are more active in purchasing calcium carbide. The aftermarket forecasts that the price of calcium carbide in the northwest may rise in shock in late February.

Commodity index: on February 21, 2020, the polyacrylamide commodity index was 97.35, unchanged from yesterday, down 9.13% from 107.13 (2019-05-08), and up 1.70% from 95.72, the lowest point on April 10, 2019

Price: according to the monitoring data of business agency (100ppi. Com), on February 1, 2020, the mainstream price of polyacrylamide (cation) market is about 15933.33 yuan / ton, and on February 21, the mainstream price of polyacrylamide (cation) market is 15933.33 yuan / ton, which is stable.

Industrial chain:

Upstream: from January to February 2020, the main quotation of acrylonitrile in the domestic market will be lowered. At the beginning of January, the quotation was about 11200 yuan / ton, which was reduced by 100 yuan / ton for many times during the period; in the middle of the year, the quotation continued to decline slightly, which was reduced by 50 yuan / ton to 10650 yuan / ton for three times; by the end of the last ten days, the decline had been about 4000 yuan / ton, with a fluctuation of about 20%; on February 21, the mainstream price was about 9500 yuan / ton, which was decreased by 1100 yuan / ton, with a decrease of about 10.38%. It is reported that at present, the effective capacity of acrylonitrile in China is 2.249 million tons / year, and the production starts are stable during the Spring Festival, with an average operating rate of 96%. According to statistics, the current price of acrylonitrile is not the lowest since September 2016.

Downstream: during the Spring Festival holiday, the water treatment engineering construction enterprises are strictly controlled to return to work. At present, they advocate orderly return to work, and the demand will gradually increase in the future.

Manufacturer: Gongyi factory, the main production area of Henan Province, has continued to stop production so far. The manufacturer claims that the inventory is relatively sufficient, the current demand continues to be low season, the procurement is weak, and the manufacturer’s quotation is in a stable state.

Industry:

1. In late July 2019, recently, the water purification and environmental protection enterprises in Yong’an Road sub district office of Gongyi City, Henan Province received the notice of production suspension, which requires: according to the analysis of the city’s environmental pollution status and future pollution weather, the municipal office requires all deep treatment enterprises to stop production before acceptance, and can resume production after scheduling or acceptance according to the office.

2. After resumption of production, the production will be stopped again: the production will be resumed for ten days in August, and it will be stopped again on 15th. According to the manufacturer, the production stop is more affected by the National Games held in Zhengzhou on September 8th. The local environmental protection inspection is strict, and all local enterprises in Gongyi are required to stop production for environmental protection treatment and maintenance.

3. After the National Games on September 8, the local manufacturers did not receive the notice of commencement immediately, and the strict inspection of environmental protection was in progress. In late September, local manufacturers in Gongyi began to resume production one after another, and the supply of goods gradually returned to normal.

4. On December 19, Gongyi, the main production area of Henan Province, issued an emergency notice, requiring all enterprises to stop production and all goods transportation from that day to January 1, 2020 in accordance with the spirit of the 16th scheduling meeting of Gongyi City for environmental pollution. Zhengzhou municipal leaders will lead the supervision group to continuously supervise and inspect the implementation of management and control. If it is found that the implementation is not in place, the person in charge of the enterprise and the truck driver will be detained. The enterprise will be included in the blacklist of integrity, and the enterprise will be subject to top-level punishment. This notice is very strict for manufacturers and freight requirements, and manufacturers should stop production.

5. In 2020, the relevant enterprises in the main production areas in China stopped production in the holiday mode and superimposed the special situation in China. The application for resumption of work is strictly approved. The manufacturers in the main production areas in Henan have not started production so far.

Future market forecast: according to the analysis of the business community, the manufacturers in Henan Province continue to stop production and stop work, there is no problem in the inventory, and the resumption of construction enterprises needs to be carried out gradually in the later stage; the current price of upstream raw material acrylonitrile continues to decrease, which has reached the lowest price in four years, and the subsequent production cost of polyacrylamide will decrease with it. From the current factors, the market of polyacrylamide is not unusual.

1、 Price trend of lithium carbonate:

(Figure: p-value curve of lithium carbonate product source: Commodity analysis system of Business Association)

2、 Market analysis:

Product: the market of lithium carbonate was stable on February 19. According to the price monitoring of the business agency, the average price of industrial lithium carbonate in East China on February 19 was 43900 yuan / ton, which was the same as that of yesterday, down 39.86% compared with the same period last year. On February 19, the average price of battery grade lithium carbonate in East China was 51200 yuan / ton, which was the same as yesterday, down 38.46% compared with the same period last year. On February 19, the lithium carbonate commodity index was 111.85, unchanged from yesterday, down 72.39% from 405.10 (2018-01-07), the highest point in the cycle, and up 13.51% from 98.54, the lowest point on October 16, 2014. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business agency, there are 10 kinds of commodities in the list of rise and fall of bulk commodity prices on February 19, 2020, including 1 kind of commodity with an increase of more than 5%, accounting for 1.2% of the number of commodities monitored in this sector; the top three commodities are ethanol (7.61%), propylene (2.51%) and calcium carbide (1.17%). There are 9 kinds of commodities with a decline on a month-on-month basis, and the top 3 products were butanone (- 2.66%), sulfuric acid (- 2.08%) and hydrochloric acid (- 1.39%). The average price of this day is 0.08%.

3、 Future forecast:

According to the lithium carbonate analyst of business association, the production enterprises of Sichuan lithium carbonate market have started one after another, the downstream demand is still recovering, and the market trading atmosphere is light. It is expected that the market situation of lithium carbonate will be stable in the short term.

1、 Price trend

The domestic BDO market is mainly stable. According to the sample data monitored by the business agency, as of February 17, the average price of the domestic BDO market was 9945 yuan / ton, up 1.52% month on month, up 3.32% year on year.

2、 Market analysis

Products: the demand side of domestic BDO market recovers slowly, and the market is still stable. Crane coal was temporarily suspended due to the failure of air separation unit on the 17th, and the restart time is uncertain; other units are temporarily stable and the inventory of each unit is accumulated. The main downstream PBT and PTMEG load is low, the other downstream resumption process is slow, and the consumption capacity is limited. Moreover, the transportation is not recovered, the on-site inventory needs to be digested urgently, and the manufacturer’s shipping mentality. The inquiry list is in a general atmosphere, with a small amount of stock. The company will continue to offer before the festival.

In terms of market, BDO market in South China has been consolidated and operated. Downstream construction continued at a low level, with limited consumption capacity. At the same time, limited by transportation, factory inventory accumulation, shipping mentality, on-site physical single delivery is weak, and the industry is waiting. The BDO market in East China is running smoothly. Downstream construction is still at a low level, and transportation has not yet recovered, and the factory inventory is under pressure. However, the enthusiasm of inquiry in the middle and lower reaches is not high, the actual order transaction is even less, and the market focus has no obvious change.

Industry chain: in terms of raw materials, the market of methanol and methanol is generally stable, and the delivery situation is slightly improved. The main price in the north line of Inner Mongolia is 1500-1530 yuan / ton of ex factory spot exchange, which is flat compared with last week. The part of the south line has risen to 1550 yuan / ton of ex factory spot exchange, and the focus of discussion has moved up slowly. In Guanzhong area, the main transaction is 1500-1600 yuan / ton of ex factory spot exchange, and the market inquiry will increase.

Calcium carbide: the ex factory price of domestic calcium carbide is increased by 50 yuan / ton again, and the mainstream ex factory price in Wuhai is 2750-2800 yuan / ton. The shipment is smooth, and the downstream procurement is active. With the recovery of transportation and the alleviation of the rain and snow in North China on transportation, the recent downstream arrival volume is gradually improved. It is expected that the domestic calcium carbide market will be stable in the short term. In the early stage of Henan, in order to attract sources of goods, the purchase price will be increased With the recovery of transportation, the cancellation of high-speed fee has reduced part of the cost.

3、 Future forecast

On the whole, the price of raw methanol has been lowered, and BDO’s profit margin is still reasonable. On site inventory is more abundant, and the manufacturer keeps the mentality of shipping. However, the downstream demand side continues to be weak, and there are still problems in transportation. BDO analysts predict that the short-term domestic BDO market will be light and tidy, and they will continue to pay attention to transportation and downstream resumption.

1、 Price trend

According to the data monitored by the business club, today’s comprehensive market price is 14300.00 yuan / ton, and the PC market is weak and stable. At present, it is difficult for the PC market to have a real deal.

2、 Cause analysis

Products: last week, the domestic PC market atmosphere was cold, and the trading price was not obvious. Starting this week, both the East and South China markets will resume quotation, and the industry is cautious to explore the direction. However, the impact of Wuhan incident on the downstream real demand and logistics recovery remains, so it will be difficult for the market to release the real volume and the pressure on domestic and imported material inventory to be released.

Industry chain: upstream bisphenol A: East China’s bisphenol a market showed low price on Friday, with a quotation of 10700-10900 yuan / ton, and low end for negotiation. The overall operating rate of bisphenol a plant has dropped to 75%. Affected by the slow resumption of downstream work, some traders are under pressure to deliver goods at low prices, but the inquiry is limited, and the transaction is under follow-up.

Industry: on February 16, the rubber and plastic index was 642, the same as yesterday, down 39.43% from 1060 (2012-03-14), the highest point in the cycle, and up 11.46% from 576, the lowest point on December 21, 2015. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-12-01 to now)

3、 Future forecast

Business Club PC analysts believe that: the domestic PC market atmosphere is cold, and the trading price is obvious.

1、 Price trend

According to the data of the business club’s bulk list, the price of aniline in Nanjing rose slightly this week. The price of aniline in Nanjing was 6850 yuan / ton, 0.74% higher than last Friday.

2、 Analysis and comment

Raw materials: this week’s price of pure benzene is 5200-5800 yuan / ton, down 0.7% from last week. This week, pure benzene port inventory accumulated. The process of downstream resumption is slow. In addition, styrene plant reduces production and raw materials are released. At present, pure benzene is in the situation of two weak supply and demand, and is still affected by transportation.

This week, nitric acid operated stably, and the production price in East China was 1566.67 yuan / ton.

Product: the Jinling aniline plant was shut down on Wednesday, the market supply decreased, and the price slightly increased. However, at present, the downstream operating rate is still low and the procurement is light, limiting the increase of aniline.

3、 Future expectation

Raw materials: some pure benzene enterprises operate under reduced load, and hydrogenated benzene plants also have a decrease. At present, there is not much negative factor. In the later stage, attention should be paid to the recovery of transportation and the resumption of downstream enterprises.

Pay attention to the downstream operation rate and transportation issues in the later stage, and it is expected that aniline will run stably and strongly next week.

1、 Price trend

According to the data monitored by the business association, today’s comprehensive market price is 14300.00 yuan / ton, and the PC market is in a weak and stable operation.

2、 Cause analysis

Products: the domestic PC market is running in a cold state, with careful quotation and strong wait-and-see atmosphere. There is a strong wait-and-see atmosphere in the market. Affected by the new crown epidemic situation, the transaction atmosphere is cold, so it is difficult to make a transaction.

Industry chain: upstream BPA: due to the impact of the epidemic, the resumption of downstream factories was delayed, and the logistics and transportation were blocked. Sporadic offers were made around 10900 yuan / ton, mostly through real single negotiation, and the delivery of merchants was not smooth.

Industry: on February 12, the rubber and plastic index was 646, down 2 points from yesterday, 39.06% from 1060 (2012-03-14), and 12.15% from 576, the lowest point on December 21, 2015. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-12-01 to now)

3、 Future forecast

PC analysts of business club think: the market is weak and stable, the trading atmosphere is flat, and businesses continue to wait and see.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring data of business association, as of February 11, the average market price of organosilicon DMC in several mainstream areas monitored by the data was 19000 yuan / ton, which was basically the same as before the festival.

2、 Market analysis

Products: after the Spring Festival, the overall recovery of the silicone market is slow. Most of the silicone DMC enterprises are centralized and blocked, and the logistics is not smooth. As of February 10, most of the monomer enterprises have resumed their work, but they will not operate at full load. The overhaul enterprises have not resumed their work, and some enterprises have started to reduce their work. Affected by the slow resumption of work of the downstream enterprises, the participation of the downstream terminals is not high, and most of the monomer enterprises are determined by sales The mode of production is partly resumed. A few monomer factories offer 19000 yuan / ton DMC. However, the market atmosphere is weak, the transaction is rare, and there is no downstream inquiry to get the goods. Now the market is still cold.

Operation of the unit: the annual capacity of Ekin silicone (Jiangxi base) is 400000 tons, and the unit is expected to restart in the near future; Shandong area: Luxi unit operates stably; Jinling unit load rate is 70%; Dongyue 250000 tons annual capacity, one set for two sets; Zhejiang area: Zhongtian Dongfang fluorine silicon, Xin’an, Hesheng silicon industrial unit operates normally; Hubei Xingfa 320000 tons annual capacity, and the unit operates normally after parallel operation OK, the new production increase has not been released yet; Tangshan Sanyou phase II maintenance.

Industry chain: silicone oil, raw rubber and 107 rubber enterprises are not well started as a whole, most of which are not quoted. Affected by the poor logistics and transportation, the market transaction atmosphere is light and the delivery is cold.

3、 Future forecast

Business analysts believe that: it is expected that in the near future, the upstream and downstream enterprises of organosilicon will start construction and local logistics will gradually recover, the market participation will be improved, and the market situation will gradually become clear.