1、 Price trend

 

 

According to the data in the business club’s large list, the price of pure benzene has been declining since February. On January 31, the price of pure benzene was 5600-5950 yuan / ton, and on February 7, the price of pure benzene was 5400-5600 yuan / ton, down 4.97% compared with the previous price.

 

2、 Analysis and comment

 

1. Product: this week is the first week after the Spring Festival. Affected by the epidemic, the downstream operation rate is low, the operation load is not high and the transportation is limited. The pure benzene market is light and the price is declining. This week’s pure benzene port inventory is down from the year before.

 

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2. Crude oil: since the Spring Festival, the overall oil price has declined. In the event of the impact of Chinese Spring Festival and the epidemic, crude oil prices plummeted, and WTI oil prices fell below $50 / barrel. WTI fell 4.63% and Brent 5.28% compared to January 24.

 

3. Downstream industry: the downstream operation rate is low and the operation load is not high. Styrene: the 200000 ton unit of Yuhuang in Shandong was shut down on January 28, and the load of Dagu in Tianjin was reduced to about 60%. At present, Zhejiang Petrochemical Company has started 60%. Styrene was down 3.92% from the end of January. The supply and demand of aniline are in a temporary balance.

 

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3、 Future forecast

 

1. Crude oil: the impact of the epidemic is continuing, and the sharp rebound in oil prices may be small. Pay attention to OPEC discussion and deepen the process of production reduction.

 

1. Market: enterprises have resumed work, but transportation still limits the price of pure benzene. Downstream styrene is expected to remain negative in late February. Transportation is restricted and chemical products market is heated up.

 

Next week, pure benzene is expected to remain weak.

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According to the data of business agency, around the Spring Festival this year, the international crude oil price continued to decline, with a large drop. According to statistics, from January 20 to January 31, Brent crude oil dropped from 65.20 USD / barrel to 56.62 USD / barrel, down 8.58 USD / barrel (13.2%). WTI crude oil fell to $51.56/bbl from $58.38, down $6.82/bbl (11.7%). The main reason is that the market is generally worried about the inhibition of China’s crude oil demand and economic prospects, and the US Energy Information Agency (EIA) also expressed some concerns about the future crude oil demand.

 

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With the outbreak of new coronavirus pneumonia in China and the gradual expansion of its influence, many high-speed traffic restrictions, urban traffic control, and the number of vehicles on the road have been sharply reduced, which has weakened the market demand for oil products, and also affected the bulk commodity crude oil market. So the oil price turns around.

 

According to the evaluation of many overseas institutions, during the Spring Festival, due to the impact of China’s low demand for refined oil, the net demand for crude oil decreased by 250000-300000 barrels. Globally, due to the impact of China’s epidemic, international aviation, tourism and other fields were affected, and the demand for crude oil also decreased correspondingly, with a loss of about 500000 barrels.

 

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On January 30, four OPEC sources said that Saudi Arabia has started negotiations with OPEC and its allies to advance the upcoming OPEC + policy meeting from March to early February. From the current situation, Iran has expressed its opposition, but Saudi Arabia is eager to take measures to prevent oil prices from continuing to decline. The positive effect on the market has not been highlighted in terms of the trend of oil price, which needs to be further observed.

 

In the view of the business club, the price of crude oil may still linger at a low level in the near future, or even continue to explore. On the one hand, it may take some time for China’s demand to return to normal, but it can’t be totally pessimistic. With the coming of the refinery’s resumption period, the crude oil inventory will be further consumed. On the other hand, the pressure of crude oil inventory in China’s ports is not large at present, and the impact of crude oil import in the later period will not be too great naturally. In addition, OPEC is more likely to continue to increase production reduction, which also plays a buffer role in the decline of oil price. It is expected that the oil price will not fall off a cliff. With the end of the epidemic in China, the possibility of oil price rebound is greater.

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1、 Price trend

 

According to the monitoring of bulk data from the business agency, in January, the price of chloroform in Shandong Province first suppressed and then increased. The average price at the beginning of the month was about 2200 yuan / ton, and fell to 2000 yuan / ton at the end of the month, with an overall decline of 9.09% in the month. The lowest price in the month was 1950 yuan / ton in the middle of the month.

 

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2、 Cause analysis

 

Product reason: after winter, it is in the traditional off-season of chloroform market, and the overall market starts smoothly. However, the downstream demand is flat, and the price support for chloroform is insufficient. Near the Spring Festival holiday, the downstream market and traders intend to prepare goods, so the market price is slightly increased, and the overall transaction situation is still slightly flat. At present, the quotation in the region is about 2000 yuan / ton, and that in Jiangxi Liwen is 2150 yuan About RMB yuan / ton, and the quotation in Jiangsu is about 3400 yuan / ton.

 

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Industry chain: in the upstream, methanol market is in shock and arrangement, and the market transaction before the festival is stagnant, at present, about 2242 yuan / ton; the liquid chlorine market is stable and in shock, the supply of the liquid chlorine market is tight, and the enterprise has a strong attitude of sticking to the price, and the transaction is flat, at present, about 300-500 yuan / ton. In the downstream, the domestic refrigerant market is in weak and stable operation, and the market is basically closed before the festival, so there is little room for price adjustment; the pharmaceutical and agricultural market and solvent industry just need to be flat, and the price of chloroform is generally supported.

 

3、 Future forecast

 

According to the data analyst of methane chloride of business association, with the development of the new crown virus epidemic, the Spring Festival holiday has been extended compared with previous years, the market starts have slowed down, the logistics and transportation vehicles in various regions are limited, and the market trading is weak. It is expected that the market will be shaken and sorted out in a short time.

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