1. Trade name: silicon metal (441#)

2. Latest price (March 30, 2020): 11625 yuan / ton

The price of 441 × silicon in each region is as follows:

The price range of metal silicon in Fujian is 11100-11300 yuan / ton, that in Sichuan is 11400-11500 yuan / ton, that in Kunming is 11400-11600 yuan / ton, that in Shanghai is 12000-12200 yuan / ton, that in Tianjin is 11700-119300 yuan / ton, that in Huangpu is 11600-118100 yuan/ Tons.

3. Analysis points:

In China, the supply side is still low, the silicon plant in Xinjiang reduced production from February to March, and started at a low level, with a slight decline in monthly output on a month on month basis; the operating rates in Yunnan and Sichuan are not high, although the number of furnace openings in Nujiang River in Yunnan increased slightly on a month on month basis, but concentrated in the late March; some small-scale manufacturers in Fujian and southern Hunan resumed production, with small capacity. Overall, the domestic operating rate in March was about 30%, 0.3 percentage points lower than the previous month. It is reported that the current social inventory decreased nearly 30% year on year.

Domestic downstream organosilicon monomer and aluminum alloy industry chain transmission due to poor expectation of industrial chain terminal and market expectation of production reduction effect, cast pessimistic expectation on silicon metal consumption. Polysilicon has the highest operating rate in the three downstream, and the market has a good expectation of starting photovoltaic installation at the end of the second quarter. Generally speaking, although the supply and demand in the domestic market are declining, the price is dominated by panic sentiment, and the willingness of traders to store goods is reduced.

On the foreign side, the spread of foreign epidemic will affect more downstream enterprises and reduce foreign demand. According to customs data, from January to February 2020, the export volume of silicon metal was 95000 tons, down 9.4% year on year.

4. Future forecast: it is expected that the short-term operation of silicon metal will be weak.

1、 Price trend

According to the data monitoring of business agency, the price of plasticizer DOP fell sharply this week, and the market of DOP was weak. As of March 27, the price of DOP in East China was 5933.33 yuan / ton, down 11% from 6666.67 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week, and down 29.08% from the same period last year.

2、 Industrial chain Market

It can be seen from the price rise and fall chart of the industrial chain this week that the prices of raw materials phthalic anhydride and octanol of DOP fell sharply this week, the cost of DOP fell sharply, and the pressure of DOP falling was great. Lower PVC market downturn, plasticizer sales worse.

3、 Future forecast

According to Bai Jiaxin, data analyst of DOP business agency, the price of raw materials in the upstream of the plasticizer industry chain fell sharply this week, the cost of plasticizer fell, and there was a large space for plasticizer to fall. For the downstream, PVC is in the off-season, and the demand for plasticizers is limited. At this stage, the real estate industry and other industries have limited start-up, the demand for PVC has declined significantly, the number of global production enterprises has increased, the market for PVC has been more negative, the demand for plasticizer has been greatly reduced, the inventory of plasticizer enterprises is large, the sales is difficult, and the pressure of DOP decline is large. Generally speaking, the downward pressure of DOP in the future remains, and the plasticizer market is weak.

The supply of goods increased. The price trend of fluorite on March 25 was 119.30, which was the same as that of yesterday. It was 6.42% lower than the highest point of 127.49 (2019-01-03) in the cycle, and 142.43% higher than the lowest point of 49.21 on December 18, 2016. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

According to statistics, the price trend of fluorite in China fell slightly. As of the 26th day, the average price of fluorite in China was 3355.56 yuan / ton. Recently, the operation rate of fluorite plant in China has increased. The mine and flotation plant in the field have been resumed gradually, and the supply of fluorite in the field has increased. Due to the increase of the supply in the field, the price of fluorite has fallen slightly. In addition, the price trend of hydrofluoric acid in the downstream is temporarily stable. For the fluorite market, the fluorite is purchased on demand Generally speaking, the price trend of fluorite market fell. In the near future, the downstream unit has been in normal operation, and the spot supply of fluorite in the site is sufficient. As of the 26th, the price of 97 fluorite wet powder in Inner Mongolia was 3000-3200 yuan / ton, that of 97 fluorite wet powder in Fujian was 3100-3300 yuan / ton, that of 97 fluorite wet powder in Henan was 3200-3400 yuan / ton, and that of 97 fluorite wet powder in Jiangxi was 3200-3400 yuan / ton.

The market price trend of hydrofluoric acid in the downstream of fluorite is stable temporarily. As of the 26th, the domestic market price of hydrofluoric acid is 11500 yuan / ton. The stable market price of hydrofluoric acid has a certain positive impact on the upstream fluorite market. However, in the near future, the operation of hydrofluoric acid plant is normal, the demand for fluorite is normal, some enterprises have not started construction in the near future, the supply of goods in the site is normal, and the price drop of fluorite is limited. In the near future, the trading trend of downstream refrigerant market of the terminal is stable. At present, the automobile industry starts normally, the domestic R22 supply is stable, the domestic refrigerant R22 market price trend is stable, the starting load of the manufacturer’s production device is still not high, the supply of goods in the market is general, the downstream air conditioning manufacturer starts gradually, and the demand changes little. The price mainstream of domestic large enterprises is 16500-18500 yuan / ton water Ping. The price trend of domestic R134a market is temporarily stable, and the unit operation rate of production enterprises remains low. At present, the downstream construction is not high, and the demand for R134a is general. At present, the supply of R134a in the market is normal, and the price remains stable, while the downstream purchase is still on demand. The price trend of hydrofluoric acid market is stable, and the downstream market trend is stable, but the supply of fluorite increases, and the market of fluorite declines.

On the whole, the market trend of downstream refrigerant industry is stable temporarily, the supply of fluorite is increasing, and the price trend of hydrofluoric acid market is declining in the near future. Chen Ling, an analyst of business agency, thinks that the market price of fluorite may fall slightly. Fall back

1、 Price trend

According to the list of bulk data of business agency, the average price of domestic phosphoric acid on March 20 was 5322.33 yuan / ton, a slight decrease of 0.31% compared with 5350 yuan / ton on the 16th of the week, and the index of phosphoric acid commodity on March 22 was 116.58, flat with yesterday, down 9.60% from 128.96 points (2019-07-25) in the cycle, and up 27.90% from 91.15 points, the lowest point on October 13, 2016. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now) / P >

2、 Market analysis

Product: the price of yellow phosphorus at the raw material end continued to be lowered this week, and the market price of phosphoric acid slightly decreased with the cost end. At present, the terminal demand is general, the phosphoric acid market is weak, the trading center is slightly low, some of the early quotations are high, the manufacturers reduce the prices, the market enthusiasm is not high, watch carefully. According to the monitoring of the business association, as of March 20, the average market price of 85% industrial purified water phosphoric acid was about 5300 yuan / ton, that of Sichuan was about 4700-5300 yuan / ton, that of Guangxi was about 5350 yuan / ton, that of Beijing was about 5400 yuan / ton, and that of all regions was mostly about 4700-5700 / ton. The market situation was weak, and some manufacturers lowered about 50 yuan.

Industry chain: at present, the yellow phosphorus market continues to be dominated by weak consolidation operation, with general on-site trading. The factory acceptance of net phosphorus in Yunnan Province is about 16800-17100 yuan / ton, including the latest quotation of 17000 yuan / ton for Yunnan Pingbian yellow phosphorus plant. This week, the phosphorus ore market fluctuated slightly, and the overall stable operation is the main factor. At present, the phosphorus ore market in Guizhou has basically recovered, but the operating rate of production enterprises is not high, and low and medium load production is mainly for self use. The demand of phosphate Market is poor, and the confidence in the market is insufficient.

Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business association, in the 11th week of 2020 (3.16-3.20), there are 15 kinds of commodities rising month by month in the list of commodity prices in the chemical sector, among which there are 3 kinds of commodities rising by more than 5%, accounting for 3.4% of the number of commodities monitored in the sector; the top 3 commodities are isopropanol (26.40%), acetic anhydride (6.37%) and dichloromethane (5.38%). There are 39 kinds of commodities falling on a month on month basis, 14 kinds of commodities falling by more than 5%, accounting for 16.1% of the number of commodities monitored in this sector; the top three products falling are pure benzene (- 17.60%), chloroform (- 15.79%) and crude benzene (- 14.52%).

3、 Future forecast

According to the phosphoric acid analyst of the chemical branch of the business society, the yellow phosphorus at the raw material end is down, the phosphoric acid market goes with the market, and the price is down slightly, with little change. The phosphoric acid market is expected to remain weak and stable in the short term.

Market Overview:

According to the monitoring of bulk data from the business agency, the dichloromethane market in Shandong continued to rise this week. At the beginning of the week, the price of dichloromethane was about 2230 yuan / ton, and at the end of the week, it was about 2350 yuan / ton, up 5.38% in the week.

Market analysis:

Product: due to the long-term low price shipment in the early stage, the inventory pressure of dichloromethane enterprises in Shandong Province is no longer there, and the enterprises have raised their prices one after another, but the downstream market demand is still not getting better and the support is insufficient. At present, the quotation in Shandong is about 2350 yuan / ton, Jiangxi Liwen is about 2700 yuan / ton, and Jiangsu is about 2950 yuan / ton.

Industry chain: on the upstream side, the domestic methanol market demand surface is light, the contradiction between supply and demand depends on each other, in addition to the transmission of the new Northwest price decline, the mainland continues to decline, at present, about 1780 yuan / ton; the overall production of liquid chlorine market is relatively stable, and the downstream market demand is flat, at present, about 200-300 yuan / ton. In the downstream, there is no obvious improvement in the domestic refrigerant market demand end, and the demand is mainly rigid. At present, the demand is about 17500-19000 yuan / ton; in the recovery of pharmaceutical and agricultural market and solvent industry, the demand is flat, and the price support for dichloromethane is insufficient.

Future forecast:

According to the methane chloride data analyst of business association, at present, the supply of dichloromethane in Shandong Province is gradually recovering, but the downstream market demand has not improved significantly. In addition, the raw material support is insufficient, and it is expected that the operation will be light and stable in a short time.

1、 Price trend

According to the bulk data monitoring of the business agency, the trichloromethane market in Shandong fell sharply this week. At the beginning of the week, the price of trichloromethane was around 1900 yuan / ton, and at the end of the week, it fell to about 1600 yuan / ton, down 15.79% in the week.

2、 Cause analysis

Product reason: with the gradual resumption of production, the supply of chloroform in Shandong Province has improved, but the downstream market demand has recovered slowly. In addition, the upstream methanol continues to weaken, the support for chloroform is insufficient, and the price continues to decline. At present, the price in Shandong Province is about 1600 yuan / ton, Jiangxi Liwen about 2300 yuan / ton, and Jiangsu about 2600 yuan / ton.

Industry chain: on the upstream side, the domestic methanol market demand surface is light, the contradiction between supply and demand depends on each other, in addition to the transmission of the new Northwest price decline, the mainland continues to decline, at present, about 1780 yuan / ton; the overall production of liquid chlorine market is relatively stable, and the downstream market demand is flat, at present, about 200-300 yuan / ton. In the downstream, there is no obvious improvement in the demand end of domestic refrigerant market for the time being, and the demand is mainly rigid. At present, about 17500-19000 yuan / ton is needed; in the recovery of pharmaceutical agricultural market and solvent industry, the demand is flat, and the price support for trichloromethane is insufficient.

3、 Future forecast

According to the methane chloride data analyst of business association, at present, the supply of trichloromethane in Shandong Province is gradually recovering, but the downstream market demand has not improved significantly. In addition, the raw material support is insufficient, and it is expected to run in a weak position in a short time.

On March 18, the contracts of Shanghai Jiaotong 04 and Shanghai Jiaotong 05 all broke through 10000 yuan. The main force reported 9965 points on that day, down 315 points, or 3.06%.

 
Among them, the Shanghai Rubber 05 contract broke 10000 yuan for the first time in four years, with the lowest point of 9930. This price is also the lowest since January 2016, with a drop of 26% compared with the highest point of 13425 yuan / ton in 2020.

On the 19th, Shanghai Jiaotong once again fell in depth, with its lowest price at 9395, down more than 800 points.

 
The natural rubber commodity index on March 18 was 30.08, up 0.06 points from yesterday, down 69.92% from the cycle’s highest point of 100.00 (2011-09-01), and up 6.86% from the lowest point of 28.15 on November 25, 2015, according to data from Business News Agency (100ppi. Com).

 
On March 18, the state-run all latex newspaper of Shanghai market for 18 years was 10200 (+ 100) yuan / ton,. The spot price of str20 warehouse in Qingdao market was reported at 1270 (+ 0) US dollars / ton, and the shipment price of str20 in Qingdao market in March was reported at 1270 (+ 0) US dollars / ton. Thai raw material market film 41.11 (+ 0.16) THB / kg; Thai three tobacco film 43.2 (+ 0) THB / kg; field glue 38.3 (+ 0.3) THB / kg; Cup glue 31.5 (+ 0.1) THB / kg. Synthetic rubber: the market price of Qilu Petrochemical styrene butadiene rubber 1502 in North China is 9200 (+ 0) yuan / ton; the market price of cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber is 9100 (+ 0) yuan / ton.

The spot market of natural rubber in China keeps up with the trend of futures. On the morning of the 18th, Qingdao and Shanghai markets, domestic rubber: the mainstream price of domestic whole milk in the 18th year is about 10000-10100 yuan / ton, imported rubber: the mainstream price of 3L in Vietnam in the 18th year is about 10350-10450 yuan / ton, the mainstream price of hongmanli / Lianyi tobacco sheet rubber in the 3rd year of Thailand in the 18th year is about 12400-12500 yuan / ton, and the raw film of Thailand Heai raw material market is 41 THB/ About kg, about 43.2 THB / kg for the three cigarettes, about 38.3-38.5 THB / kg for the field glue, and about 31.5 THB / kg for the cup glue; in the afternoon, Shanghai glue fell rapidly, the main contract fell below the 10000 yuan threshold, and reported 9965 yuan / ton. Most traders suspended quotation and shipment. Shanghai Rubber fell sharply again on the 19th, with traders suspending quotation and shipment.

 
Figure 4: domestic spot trend of natural rubber

Factor analysis: 1. The global macro situation is grim in the near future, which has a great impact on all levels, causing a short of commodity investment level due to worries about economic prospects; 2. Crude oil has a continuous sharp drop, which has an obvious impact on the future market, with most commodities falling, while cost reduction, good synthetic rubber, and the reduction of downstream demand has an impact on Tianjiao under the role of substitution; 3. Social inventory has been in place before the Spring Festival At a high level, the number of imported rubber arriving in Hong Kong after the Spring Festival has been increasing, and the inventory has been negative. 4. At present, the start-up of tire factories has been increasing gradually, but under the current situation, the export orders have been seriously affected, and the weak demand has obviously suppressed Tianjiao. To sum up, it can be seen that the multiple factors of macro environment and industry lead to the first break of natural rubber market since January 2016.

Future market forecast: in terms of supply, China is still in the cut-off period, and the follow-up output will be affected due to the occurrence of powdery mildew in Yunnan due to drought; foreign orders will arrive at the post one after the Spring Festival, with a great pressure on warehousing. In terms of demand, restricted by the current situation of global spread, the reduction of foreign demand for rubber products seriously affects the export of China’s rubber products. Although the operating rate of China’s tire enterprises has increased significantly, the weak demand has a great impact on production, and the downstream demand side of natural rubber is in a severe situation. It is expected that global concerns will continue in the near future, and the impact of changes in foreign prevention and control situation on the export level of rubber products needs to be paid close attention to; the current domestic prevention and control situation is good, and the recovery speed of production and circulation will be accelerated. In the short term, we should guard against the weakness of the general environment and the continuous effect of panic, leading to a substantial price adjustment; in fact, the psychological support of the 10000 yuan pass is obvious, and there is a greater possibility of repeated shocks around the price in the future.

1、 Price trend of lithium carbonate:

(Figure: P value curve of lithium carbonate product)

2、 Market analysis:

Product: the market of lithium carbonate was stable on the 18th. According to the price monitoring of the business agency, the average price of industrial grade lithium carbonate in East China on March 18 was 44200 yuan / ton, which was the same as that of yesterday and 36.86% lower than that of the same period last year. On March 18, the average price of battery grade lithium carbonate in East China was 51200 yuan / ton, which was the same as yesterday, down 36.32% compared with the same period last year. At present, the mainstream price of industrial lithium carbonate market is around 40000-47000 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price of battery lithium carbonate market is around 48000-52000 yuan / ton.

On March 17, the lithium carbonate commodity index was 112.61, unchanged from yesterday, down 72.20% from 405.10 (2018-01-07), the highest point in the cycle, and up 14.28% from 98.54, the lowest point on October 16, 2014. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business association, there are 12 kinds of commodities in the rise and fall list of bulk commodity prices on March 17, 2020, including 1 kind of commodity with an increase of more than 5%, accounting for 1.1% of the number of commodities monitored in this sector; the top three commodities are isopropanol (14.67%), nitric acid (3.33%) and acetic anhydride (3.18%). There are 21 kinds of commodities with a decline of more than 5% on a month on month basis, accounting for 1.1% of the number of commodities monitored in the sector; the top three products with a decline are chloroform (- 10.53%), styrene (- 3.78%) and propane (- 3.65%). The average price of this day was – 0.17%.

3、 Future forecast:

Analysts of lithium carbonate of the business association believe that the downstream construction has been started in succession, the market inquiry has increased, and the atmosphere is positive. It is expected that the industrial lithium carbonate market will continue to operate strongly in the short term. At present, the demand of the downstream power market is recovering slowly. It is expected that in the short term, the battery grade lithium carbonate market will be consolidated and wait-and-see operation, and more attention should be paid to the cost and downstream demand.

1、 Price trend

According to the data of the business club’s bulk list, the market price of cryolite this week was weak and stable. The average market price in Henan was 5900.00 yuan / ton in the week, down 1.12% compared with the average market price of 5966.67 yuan / ton last weekend, down 7.33% compared with the same period last year..

2、 Market analysis

Products: according to statistics, the price trend of cryolite keeps stable operation. As of the 13th, the factory price of cryolite in Shandong is about 6000-6950 yuan / ton; the factory price of cryolite in Henan is 5000-6700 yuan / ton, 200 yuan / ton lower than last week. At present, the operation of cryolite enterprises in Henan Province is normal, the inventory is sufficient, the quotation of manufacturers is mainly stable, and the enterprises sell according to the order. Affected by the environmental protection policy, the upstream raw materials are in short supply; the downstream users purchase on demand, and the cryolite market is weak and stable.

Industry chain: the price trend of upstream fluorite rose slightly this week. The average price of domestic market at the weekend was 3400 yuan / ton, up 0.99% in the week. Affected by the recent health events, some fluorite manufacturers have not resumed production, the on-site operating rate is not high, and the supply of domestic fluorite is tight. Downstream fluorite market purchases on demand, the on-site delivery situation has improved, and the market price of fluorite continues to rise. In the downstream aluminum industry, the risk of excess capacity still exists in the aluminum industry, the downstream consumption is not optimistic, the international trade situation is complex and changeable, and the stable operation of the industry is still under pressure. This week, the aluminum price trend continues to decrease, the weekend market average price is 12656.67 yuan / ton, 1.48% lower than 12846.67 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week, and the overall price has little change.

3、 Future forecast

According to the cryolite product analyst of the business association: in terms of the supply and demand performance of the cryolite market, the manufacturers have started normally with sufficient inventory, and the downstream side tends to buy on demand. However, due to the influence of upstream raw materials, the enterprise’s quotation will not be greatly adjusted. It is expected that the market of cryolite will be weak and stable in the later period, and the market demand will be specifically focused.

On March 15, the PX commodity index was 44.00, which was the same as yesterday, setting a new low in the cycle, 57.03% lower than the highest point of 102.40 on February 28, 2013. (Note: cycle refers to 2013-02-01 to now).

According to statistics, the market price trend of p-xylene in China is temporarily stable, the operation of new 600000 ton plant in Hongrun is stable, the operation of petrochemical plant in Pengzhou is stable, 50% of petrochemical plant in Urumqi is started, one line of aromatics plant in Fuhai Chuang is started, CNOOC Huizhou refining and chemical plant is overhauled, the PX plant in Hengli Petrochemical is put into operation, other units are temporarily stable, and the operation rate of domestic p-xylene plant is stable In about 70%, the domestic market supply of p-xylene is normal, and the market price trend of p-xylene is stable. The operating rate of PX plant in Asia is about 80%. On March 13, the closing price of PX market in Asia was temporarily stable. The closing price was 591-593 US dollars / ton fob in South Korea and 611-613 US dollars / ton CFR in China. More than 40% of PX in China needed to be imported. The stability of external market price had certain support for the market price of PX in China, and the market price trend of PX was temporarily stable.

WTI crude oil futures market rose in the US, with major contracts at 31.73 yuan / barrel, or 23 US dollars. Brent crude oil futures rose, with major contracts up $2.22 to $35.44 a barrel. In recent years, crude oil prices fluctuated, and domestic p-xylene prices were stable.

In terms of downstream PTA, the price has been maintained at 3800-3900 yuan / ton in the near future, and the social inventory of PTA has not changed much in the near future. It is understood that at present, the terminal weaving enterprises return to work less than expected, the inventory pressure is transmitted to all links of the industrial chain from bottom to top, the contradiction between PTA supply and demand is more prominent, the PTA operating rate is maintained at about 80%, and the textile operating rate in Jiangsu and Zhejiang rises to 70%, but the PTA market price changes little, and the price trend of p-xylene is temporarily stable.

In the near future, the crude oil price trend is volatile, the downstream PTA market price remains at a low level, and the downstream demand of the terminal is not significantly improved. Business analysts believe that PX market price may maintain a volatile trend.