1、 Price trend of lithium carbonate:

(Figure: P value curve of lithium carbonate product)

2、 Market analysis:

Product: according to the data of the business club’s bulk list, the market of lithium carbonate ran smoothly on the 28th. On April 28, the average price of industrial grade lithium carbonate in East China was 41900 yuan / ton, which was the same as that of yesterday and 3.9% lower than that of April 1. On April 28, the average price of battery grade lithium carbonate in East China was 46700 yuan / ton, which was the same as that of yesterday, down 6.22% compared with that of April 1. At present, the mainstream price of industrial lithium carbonate market is around 38000-45000 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price of battery lithium carbonate market is around 45500-48000 yuan / ton.

On April 27, the lithium carbonate commodity index was 106.75, down 0.26 points from yesterday, down 73.65% from 405.10 (2018-01-07), and up 8.33% from 98.54, the lowest point on October 16, 2014. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business agency, there are 16 kinds of commodities in the rise and fall list of bulk commodity prices on April 27, 2020, among which there are 3 kinds of commodities with an increase rate of more than 5%, accounting for 3.4% of the number of commodities monitored in this sector; the top 3 commodities with an increase rate are butadiene (9.55%), sulfuric acid (8.55%) and acetone (7.36%). There are 23 kinds of commodities falling on a month on month basis, and one kind of commodities falling by more than 5%, accounting for 1.1% of the number of commodities monitored in this sector; the top three products falling are hydrobenzene (- 6.44%), aniline (- 3.77%) and caustic soda (- 3.45%). The average increase and decrease of this day is 0.01%.

3、 Future forecast:

According to analysts of lithium carbonate of business club, the current market demand is weak, the trade is flat, and there is a strong wait-and-see atmosphere on the market. It is expected that in the short term, the market of lithium carbonate will be mainly weak and stable.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring of bulk data from the business association, the domestic acetic acid market remained high and firm after continuous rise. As of April 27, the quotation in Henan was about 2250-2300 yuan / ton; in Shandong, it was about 2350-2500 yuan / ton; in Hebei, it was about 2450 yuan / ton; in Shaanxi, it was about 2450 yuan / ton; in Jiangsu, it was about 2350-2450 yuan / ton; in Zhejiang, it was about 2450-2 yuan / ton About 550 yuan / ton; about 2350-2400 yuan / ton from South China, up 20.33% from April 7.

2、 Cause analysis

Products: after the continuous rise, the domestic acetic acid market began to return to rationality, traders and downstream markets’ intention to prepare goods before the festival turned weak, and the market volume declined. Due to the centralized maintenance of enterprises in the future, the market supply was tight, and the inventory was then reduced to a low level. How long did the enterprises make shipments? Some enterprises limited the number of shipments. At present, the acetic acid market remains high and strong.

Industry chain: in the upstream, the domestic methanol market has declined, and the price of each region has been adjusted according to the supply-demand relationship. The downstream just needs to prepare goods, and the traders operate cautiously. At present, the price is about 1620 yuan / ton; the domestic acetate, vinyl acetate and other industries operate slightly and stably, and the raw materials support is good, but the terminal market demand is poor, and the industry negotiation is soft; PTA industry starts at a high level, and the market is in a trading atmosphere Sliding, dominated by forward trading, the downstream demand performance is flat and the supply continues to increase, so there is a possibility of further decline in the start-up of terminal weaving links.

International: affected by the epidemic situation and equipment maintenance, the supply of international acetic acid market has declined, and the price of acetic acid is still rising slightly. At present, the price of acetic acid Market in North America is about 485 US dollars / ton; that in Asia is about 280-330 US dollars / ton; that in Europe is about 570 euros / ton.

3、 Future forecast

According to the acetic acid analyst of the business association, the domestic acetic acid market tends to be stable before the May Day holiday. Downstream users and traders have mostly completed the stock preparation, the market trading atmosphere has become weak, the spot supply in the future market has been set to decline, the downstream industry has started a higher operation, the demand for acetic acid is good, and the price of acetic acid is expected to be high and strong in a short time.

1、 Price trend

According to the data in the bulk list of business associations, the average ex factory price of domestic caprolactam liquid on April 20 was 8800 yuan / ton, and the average ex factory price of domestic caprolactam liquid on April 26 was 8566 yuan / ton, with the weekly price dropping by 2.65%.

On April 26, the caprolactam commodity index was 43.09, unchanged from yesterday, down 56.91% from the highest point in the cycle of 100.00 (2017-03-02), and up 9.37% from the lowest point of 39.40 on April 7, 2020. (Note: cycle refers to 2017-03-01 till now)

2、 Market analysis

Product: caprolactam prices fell this week. The raw material market is not good, the supply increases, and the downstream demand weakens. Up to now, the price of caprolactam liquid of Shandong Luxi Chemical Co., Ltd. is 8100 yuan / ton, cash is delivered from the factory, the capacity of the manufacturer is 300000 tons, and the actual transaction can be discussed. The price of Nanjing Dongfang caprolactam liquid is 8950 yuan / ton, the 400000 ton / year unit is in normal operation, and the caprolactam unit is in normal operation. The price of Baling Hengyi caprolactam liquid is 8775 yuan / ton. The 450000 ton / year unit is normally started and accepted. The price of caprolactam liquid in Baling Petrochemical Company is 8775 yuan / ton, and the 300000 ton / year unit is normally started and accepted.

Industry chain: this week, pure benzene returned to a weak position, and the price fell continuously in the week. On April 19, the listing price of pure benzene was 3000-3900 yuan / ton (average price of 3350 yuan / ton), and on April 26, the listing price of pure benzene was 3000-3500 yuan / ton (average price of 3170 yuan / ton), down 5.37% compared with last week. This week, the price of PA6 in China fell. Despite last week’s rise due to the positive cost side, this week’s resumption of production in the polymerization plant began to show the effect. Supply is on the rise and social inventory is on the rise. In addition, the downstream mainly adopts the strategy of just need replenishment, with less consumption. The contradiction between supply and demand has intensified.

Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business association, in the 16th week of 2020 (4.20-4.24), there are 14 kinds of commodities rising month by month in the list of commodity prices in the chemical industry sector, among which there are 2 kinds of commodities rising by more than 5%, accounting for 2.2% of the number of commodities monitored in the sector; the top three commodities are acetone (10.26%), acetic acid (8.14%) and ethanol (3.33%). There are 45 kinds of commodities falling on a month on month basis, with 13 kinds of commodities falling by more than 5%, accounting for 14.6% of the number of commodities monitored in the sector; the top three products falling are hydrochloric acid (- 29.76%), crude benzene (- 17.03%), n-butanol (industrial grade) (- 12.35%). This week’s average was – 1.76%.

3、 Future forecast

Caprolactam analysts believe that this week’s raw material pure benzene fell, the cost of negative. In the near future, the maintenance of the unit will be restarted gradually, and the supply of caprolactam will increase. Downstream demand decreased, prices began to fall, manufacturers lack of confidence. It is expected that the weak finishing of caprolactam will be the main in the later stage.

1、 Price trend

According to the data monitoring of the business agency, up to April 21, the domestic phosphorus ore market has been operating stably. Based on several sample areas, the reference price of the primary and high-end 30% grade phosphorus ore mainstream areas is around 330-430 yuan / ton.

2、 Market analysis

Products: since April, the domestic phosphorus ore market as a whole has continued to operate stably, the market has remained stable and consolidated, the market as a whole has almost no fluctuation, the factory continues to supply old orders, and the new order increment is still small. At present, the quotations of several major domestic phosphorus ore sales areas are relatively stable, and the phosphorus ore market in Guizhou area is temporarily stable and put into operation. In Guizhou area, 30% of the phosphate ore truck plate quotations are 330-370 yuan / ton, and 28% of the grade phosphate ore cargo plant quotations are 320-340 yuan / ton. The phosphorus ore market in Yunnan Province is running smoothly. It is heard that 28% of the quality ammonium phosphate ore in Yunnan market has a reference quotation of 290 yuan / ton for the vehicle plate outside Yunnan Province, 275 yuan / ton for the low-end; 29% of the phosphate ore in Yunnan Province has a factory quotation of 320 yuan / ton. The quotation in Hubei area is temporarily stable. The factory quotation of 30% phosphate rock in Liushugou, Hubei Province is 430 yuan / ton. Hubei Xingfa Chemical Co., Ltd. mainly supplies 24% – 28% quality phosphate rock. The phosphate mine is recovered for mining. The ore part of the enterprise is for the group’s own use. The export is mainly for the surrounding old customers. The quotation of Yichang ship plate of 28% quality phosphate rock in the early stage is 410 yuan / ton. There is no quotation for the new sheet at present. At present, Hubei Zhongping Phosphate Mine mainly supplies 26% quality phosphate ore, the mine is closed for mining and has not been restored yet. It mainly supplies orders from old customers around, and there is no new quotation. In the early stage, the quotation of 26% quality phosphate ore raw ore yard is about 270 yuan / ton.

Industry chain: at present, the domestic yellow phosphorus market has entered into a high-level operation from the low in the early stage. The market processes more orders in the early stage, and the price of new orders is high-end. The net phosphorus factory acceptance transaction in Yunnan Province is 17100-17300 yuan / ton, and the price of some high-end quotations is 17500 yuan / ton. The phosphoric acid market is stable and wait-and-see for the time being, with individual enterprises raising prices sporadically and overall prices slightly.

3、 Future forecast

According to the analysis of the data analyst of the business agency, it is expected that the price of phosphate rock will rise slightly in the near future due to the impact of a small increase in the downstream market price.

1、 Price trend

According to the data of the commodity list of business association, the average price of formaldehyde in Shandong Province on April 20 was 916.67 yuan / ton, and the average price of formaldehyde in Shandong Province on April 21 was 906.67 yuan / ton, down 1.09%. The current price is 37.18% lower than last year.

2、 Market analysis

Products: Recently, the price of formaldehyde in domestic market has fallen. As of April 21, the main factory quotation of Hebei is about 800 yuan / ton, that of Shandong is 840 yuan / ton, and that of Jiangsu is 1035 yuan / ton. The annual output of 120000 tons formaldehyde plant in Linyi Yinhe, Shandong Province has been restarted, with the formaldehyde content of 36.7-37%. Linyi Jinyuan Chemical Co., Ltd. has two formaldehyde production lines with an annual production capacity of 80000 tons and formaldehyde content of 37%, which have been restarted. The formaldehyde market has sufficient supply of goods, and the trading atmosphere in the market is cold. Formaldehyde manufacturers are actively selling goods, and the price is falling.

Industry chain: upstream methanol: international oil price breaks the historical low, WTI futures encounter a crazy sell-off, falling to a negative value for the first time in history, the world financial environment affects the domestic economic environment, the mentality of methanol participants is affected, and the price drops. The downstream procurement just needs to be dominated, and the overall transaction is light. The quotation of formaldehyde enterprises was affected by the decline of raw materials, and the market fell.

3、 Future forecast

Recently, the mentality of upstream methanol manufacturers is different. At present, the financial environment and international oil price have become the main logic affecting bulk commodities. Therefore, the formaldehyde analysts of the chemical branch of the business society expect that the domestic formaldehyde price or consolidation will be dominated in the near future.

1、 Price trend

On April 18, the tin commodity index was 67.47, unchanged from yesterday, down 32.70% from the highest point in the cycle of 100.25 (2011-09-05), and up 57.42% from the lowest point of 42.86 on December 9, 2015. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now).

2、 Market trend analysis

Domestic market: this week, Lunxi will take the lead and then restrain. Closed on Monday, it quickly rose to a weekly high of $15650 / ton after opening on Tuesday, and then fell back under pressure. As of 16:30 on Friday, the latest price of Lunxi was $15015 / ton. Weekly level rose 65 US dollars / ton, or 0.43%, with 1047 transactions and 17339 positions, down 260. The mainstream price in the spot market this week is 131500-133000 yuan / ton, up 2500 yuan / ton from last week. In terms of premium, the premium of Yunxi is 5000-5500 yuan / ton, that of ordinary Yunzi is 4500-5000 yuan / ton, and that of small brand is 4000-4500 yuan / ton.

Industry: this week, the basic metals rose under the stimulation of a lot of more information. At the beginning of this week, OPEC + oil producing countries reached a historic production reduction agreement. Subsequently, European and American countries successively introduced various plans to restart the economy, boosting market confidence. The domestic economic data released in the first quarter showed that the economy had gone out of an obvious positive trend compared with last month. The central bank implemented targeted reduction and other measures for small and medium-sized banks.

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, in the 15th week of 2020 (4.13-4.17), there are 10 commodities in the list of commodity prices rising and falling, among which the top three commodities are zinc (2.63%), aluminum (1.75%) and tin (1.71%). There are 7 kinds of commodities falling on a month on month basis, and the top 3 products are titanium concentrate (- 3.28%), neodymium (- 1.39%) and silicon (- 1.21%). This week’s average was 0.12%.

3、 Future prospects

Next week, most of the basic metal market will be supported by long single transactions, and the spot market will maintain a certain degree of activity and persistence. Today, Xinhua news agency has announced that the 17th session of the 13th National People’s Congress will be held from April 26 to 29, and the market expects more policy guidance. Bulls can still make a difference, and each basic metal will be ready to make a breakthrough.

1、 Price trend

This week, the domestic market of cyclohexanone was mainly consolidated. According to the monitoring data of the business agency, the average price of domestic producers of cyclohexanone at the beginning of the week was 5533 yuan / ton, and the price of cyclohexanone at the end of the week was 5566 yuan / ton, up 0.60% in the week, 21.60% lower than that of the same period last month and 42.01% lower than that of the same period last year.

2、 Market analysis

Product: this week, the market of cyclohexanone was narrowed and consolidated, Sinopec’s listing of pure benzene slowly rose to 3050 yuan / ton, with certain support in cost. In the early stage, due to the positive market push, the downstream solvent was mostly prepared at low price, and the factory’s shipment was acceptable. With the promotion of cost and the cooperation of downstream, the external offer actively rose to 5900 yuan Yuan / ton, but the demand of the terminal market has not improved significantly, the confidence of the market is insufficient, the enthusiasm of downstream procurement is weakened, the market transaction atmosphere is general, and the factory price drops to about 5500 yuan / ton. Because some chemical fiber factories enter the market for procurement, the market is slightly supported, and the market of cyclohexanone is weak and stable.

Industrial chain: raw materials, pure benzene: this week, the price of pure benzene in East China rose first and then fell. In the week, due to the shortage of pure benzene in Shandong, some of the lower reaches of Shandong Province entered the eastern China port area to search for goods, which led the spot market negotiation to strengthen to 3500-3600 yuan / ton. At the same time, due to the recovery of downstream styrene operating rate, the industry believes that the subsequent decline of pure benzene is limited, and the short covering sentiment drives the transaction. The industry has a good intention to buy pure benzene in the far month, which also supports the firmness of spot price. Due to the sharp drop of crude oil price, the center of gravity of East China market fell, and spot negotiation weakened to 3350-3450 yuan / ton.

Caprolactam: this week, the main driving force of caprolactam is the change of supply-demand relationship and the firmness of pure benzene market. In terms of supply and demand: in recent years, caprolactam plants have been shut down for more maintenance, including Lanhua science and technology innovation, Tianchen Yaolong, Shijiazhuang refining and chemical industry, Hubei sanning short-term maintenance, Shanxi Lubao short-term load reduction, and caprolactam overall starting load is not high. In the aspect of downstream polymerization, due to the increase of slice orders last week, the current starting load has increased to support the demand for caprolactam. Moreover, the demand for nylon elastic yarn is boosted by the heat of the ear band of the mask, and the increase in the consumption of nylon elastic yarn, to a certain extent, promotes the expansion of PA6 high-speed spinning chips and caprolactam. Cost: Although the crude oil price fell back and WTI fell below $20, the price of pure benzene was still strong, and the cost of caprolactam was not bad. In April, Sinopec’s listing price of caprolactam was increased by 600 yuan / ton to 9000 yuan / ton. The spot price in East China also rose to a high of 9000 yuan / ton. However, due to the drop in crude oil price and the decline in the enthusiasm for speculation in the market, there was not much high price trading. The spot price of caprolactam in North China was still 8700-8800 yuan / ton.

Adipic acid: the adipic acid market is stronger this week. Crude oil shocks down, while raw material benzene trend is strong, the industry continues to wait and see the market, downstream replenishment enthusiasm from strong to weak. Middlemen offer to explore the rise carefully, waiting for the guidance of raw material information. At present, the mainstream negotiation in East China focuses on 5900-6200 yuan / ton acceptance or self delivery. The average weekly price of East China market was 5800 yuan / ton, up 3.57% on month.

3、 Future forecast

From the cost point of view, crude oil is running at a low level, the main refining plant of pure benzene has a high load, the spot delivery pressure is still there, the long-term market is still short-term or weak shocks. From the supply side, Chongqing Huafeng plans to overhaul next week, and cyclohexanone spot starts to decline, but the market spot supply is abundant, and the terminal market demand is low, and the downstream purchase demand is relatively small. Although there are a small number of chemical fiber orders this week, it is still difficult to support the market, and the operators are cautious. Business community cyclohexanone analysts expect the market to be weak in the short term. Pay attention to the raw material pure benzene market.

1、 Price trend

According to the data monitored by the business agency (average ex factory price of SG5 of calcium carbide method), the average price of domestic PVC mainstream on April 15 was 5712.5 yuan / ton, up 4.82% from the beginning of the month, down 15.46% from the same period last year On April 15, the PVC commodity index was 72.39, up 0.16 points from yesterday, down 27.61% from the cycle’s highest point of 100.00 (2011-09-05), and up 24.23% from the lowest point of 58.27 on December 20, 2015. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

Spot: according to the data monitoring of business agency, as of April 15, the main quotation range of domestic PVC is around 5550-5800 yuan / ton. At present, the mainstream price of pvc5 carbide in Changzhou is around 5450-5550 yuan / ton, the interval price of pvc5 carbide in Hangzhou is around 5430-5530 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price of PVC ordinary carbide in Guangzhou is around 5500-5550 yuan / ton.

Futures: pvcv2009 contract rose and fell, closing at 5435 yuan / ton, 15 yuan higher than the previous trading day; trading volume was 210218, – 72527; positions were 206435, + 2038, base difference was 25 yuan, + 0 yuan; 5-9 price difference was 40 yuan, – 5 yuan.

2、 Market analysis

Products: PVC futures fell below 5000 in late March, with low prices, pessimistic attitude of the industry. Spot price of PVC fell simultaneously, and the profits of the manufacturers decreased significantly. After the return of the Qingming Festival, the domestic PVC market ushered in a turning point, and the price went up frequently for several consecutive days. This increase is mainly due to the positive impact of cost end crude oil and futures, because PVC market has a strong financial attribute, and the upward trend of futures drives the rise of PVC; at the same time, downstream demand has a certain recovery. After the end of the holiday, downstream factories replenish a certain amount of goods. In addition, PVC enterprises have entered the maintenance state in spring, market output has decreased, social inventory has declined, and manufacturers have a strong mentality of boosting, Multiple positive signals support PVC price rising. Due to the impact of public health events, domestic and foreign demand is not good, the export of PVC products and raw materials has been affected to some extent, and PVC prices are under normal pressure. Recently, PVC futures have risen sharply. At present, PVC has been rising for several days in a row, and now it has become stable. The manufacturers are willing to hold up the price strongly, while the downstream replenishment is appropriate, the trading is cautious, the actual transaction in the market is slightly low, the operators are calm and wait-and-see mood is strong. It is expected that there will still be a risk of falling in the future.

Demand side: according to the exchange, PVC industry accumulates inventory before and after the Spring Festival, and the market enters the off-season. After the festival, downstream product industry starts in succession, and the market gradually recovers vitality. This year, affected by public health events, the resumption of work in the lower reaches was delayed, and the construction started in April. The export of PVC downstream products is mainly floor, hard pipe, profile and sheet film, but most of the export volume is small, only the export volume of floor products is large, at present, the order is not high, the export is temporarily blocked, and more domestic sales. In the downstream industry, the real estate pipe industry is better, and the demand and start-up of medical protective equipment manufacturers are better. On the whole, the demand side is lack of follow-up at home and abroad.

Supply end: in the first quarter, PVC production was on the high side, with abundant supply and high sales pressure. In the second quarter, PVC manufacturers mostly entered the spring maintenance season, and the starting load of some enterprises was reduced to a certain extent. With the increase of maintenance enterprises in the future, the output was reduced, and the social inventory was gradually reduced, which is expected to ease the current situation of oversupply, which is good for PVC. The following is the maintenance status of some enterprises:

Industrial chain: on April 14, the international oil price fell again, and WTI crude oil in the United States was 20.11 yuan / barrel, down $2.30 (- 10.26%). Brent crude fell $2.14 (- 6.74%) to $29.60 per barrel. The main reason is that OPEC + and other oil producing countries’ production reduction agreements disappointed the market, the share of production reduction is difficult to offset the decline of fuel demand caused by the new crown epidemic, and the U.S. crude oil inventory increased significantly than expected, which increased the market panic atmosphere. Due to the increasingly serious public health events in foreign countries and the sharp decline in oil demand, which may lead to a sharp contraction in economic activities and cannot support the price of ethylene, analysts of business data expect that the price of ethylene will keep a narrow decline in the future. In the middle of April, the market of calcium carbide fluctuated slightly. The price of raw materials in the upstream is low, the cost support is not enough, the price of PVC in the downstream is low, and the procurement enthusiasm of customers in the downstream is low. The future market forecasts that the price of calcium carbide in the northwest region may fall slightly in mid April.

Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business agency, there are six commodities in the list of commodity prices rising and falling on April 15, 2020, among which the top three commodities are HDPE (3.63%), LDPE (0.64%) and polybutadiene rubber (0.63%). There are 0 goods falling month on month. The average price of this day is 0.33%.

3、 Future forecast

PVC analysts of the business club think: PVC futures are quite volatile at present. After several days of continuous rise, the spot market began to stabilize. Most of the operators hold a wait-and-see attitude and lack of upward momentum. Some enterprises began to make a correction in their quotations. It is expected that the trend of PVC in the short term is mainly consolidation.

Since September 20, 2019, the bulk chemical industry market has started a unilateral downward trend, and the chemical industry index has fallen for six consecutive months. In the second quarter of 2020, the chemical industry market index finally ushered in a turning point, and the chemical industry index has stopped falling and rebounded since April 8. According to the monitoring of the bulk commodity data provider (100ppi. Com), the chemical index was 816 on September 20, 2019, 598 on April 8, 2020, down 26.7% on the whole, 633 on April 14, up 7 points from yesterday, 37.70% from the highest point 1016 (2012-03-13), and 5.8% from the lowest point 598 on April 8, 2020 5%. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-12-01 to now)

According to the price monitoring of business agency (100ppi. Com), after the Qingming Festival, there are 37 kinds of commodities in the list of commodity prices rising and falling from April 7 to April 14, 2020. Compared with March, there are 13 kinds of commodities rising, including 23 kinds of commodities rising by more than 5%, 16 kinds of commodities rising by more than 5%, as shown in the following table, accounting for 26.4% of the monitored commodities in the chemical sector; 8 kinds of commodities rising by more than 20% Acetone (47.37%), propane (40.57%), propylene (30.39%), propylene oxide (26.61%), pure benzene (25.47%), isopropanol (20.74%), crude benzene (20.34%) and phenol (20.3%).

A total of 29 goods fell month on month, down 30 from March. There are 6 kinds of commodities with a decline of more than 5%, 40 kinds less than that in March, accounting for 6.9% of the monitored commodities in the chemical sector; the top 3 products with a decline are butadiene (- 14.40%), hydrogen peroxide (- 8.43%) and ethylene (- 6.91%). After the Qingming Festival, the chemical industry as a whole showed more growth and less decline, and the number and range of rising commodities increased significantly. Is the “spring” of the chemical market really coming?

From the perspective of products, in April, the chemical industry rebounded. The main factors for the rise of chemical products are: the expected release of crude oil production reduction in advance, the current rise of mask raw materials to stimulate the upstream, the overseas disinfection market is good, the international market is low, and the terminal demand is low

1. Affected by the favorable release of crude oil in advance, the products with rapid reaction in the chemical market are mainly pure benzene, toluene, xylene, crude benzene, propylene, propane, styrene, phenol ketone and other petrochemical products. Among them, taking the most representative pure benzene as an example, pure benzene, as an important basic raw material of petrochemical industry, has a very high linkage with crude oil. After the Qingming Festival, with the good news of crude oil production reduction, the price of pure benzene rose sharply in the atmosphere of petrochemical industry chain. According to the data of the business club’s bulk list, after the Qingming Festival, affected by the 25% rise in crude oil on April 2, the bottom reading of pure benzene rebounded, with a strong rise. On April 3, the price of pure benzene in Shandong Province was 2420 yuan / ton; on April 10, the price of pure benzene in Shandong Province was 3070 yuan / ton, and on April 14, the price of pure benzene in Shandong Province was 3350 yuan / ton, an increase of 38.43%. The pure benzene market rebounded rapidly, and the listed prices of various factories were raised continuously. The increase of refining in various regions was more significant. The market was in a high mood of bottom reading and speculation. In terms of external market, South Korea imported pure benzene of 318.33 US dollars / ton, up 44 US dollars / ton, up 16.04% from the beginning of the month; East China imported pure benzene of 376 US dollars / ton, up 72 US dollars / ton, up 23.68% from the beginning of the month. The external market continued to rise, leading to a strong rebound in the domestic pure benzene market.

2. The rise of mask raw material polypropylene in the current period has driven the rise of products in the industrial chain. The main chemical products in this round are: propylene, propane, propylene oxide, n-butanol, acrylic acid and other products. Taking propylene as an example, it jumped up and down in a short week, with the most eye-catching performance. After the Qingming Festival, polypropylene (PP), the main downstream product of propylene, soared. Firstly, polypropylene fiber material entered the crazy level of RMB 10000 per day. Secondly, polypropylene (drawing) rose from RMB 6383 / ton to RMB 8533 / ton from April 6-10, with an increase of 33.68%, which led to a sharp rise in PP market, accounting for 70% of propylene market The share of polypropylene rose sharply, propylene also staged a surge. Taking Shandong market as an example, according to the monitoring data of business association, the price of enterprises in Shandong region generally increased by more than 1000 yuan / ton on April 12, up 35.02%. Some enterprises even increased by 5000 yuan / ton, up nearly 100%. The market transaction suddenly increased from 5000-5200 yuan / ton to 8000-12000 yuan / ton. On April 14, the price of most enterprises fell by 1000 yuan / ton, and some of the soaring enterprises have recovered to the price before the surge. Now, the market transaction is between 7000-7900 yuan / ton, gradually returning to a reasonable range.

3. Due to the spread of overseas epidemic, the disinfectant export market is very good. The chemical products that are obviously affected by this are isopropanol. According to the monitoring data of business agency, on March 14, isopropanol offered 6025 yuan / ton, on April 7, 10767 yuan / ton, and on April 14, isopropanol offered 13000 yuan / ton, up 115.77% in a month. At present, isopropanol in the U.S. continued to rise, while isopropanol in Europe ended stable and fell. From the perspective of China’s export price, the price of export to Europe remains high in the short term. As of the 13th day, the negotiation range of domestic regions is about 12500-13000 yuan / ton. According to the current international situation, the demand for disinfectant and other resources in the European market will remain high. From the perspective of export orders, the current export orders have been scheduled to the first ten days of May, and the current market is expected to continue to be good until June. Of course, we should continue to pay attention to the progress of overseas public events. If the inflection point does not appear until May, the overseas isopropanol procurement will continue or be postponed to August. Business analysts believe that the domestic price of isopropanol will remain high and focus on the impact of market products and the stability of export orders. According to the monitoring of the business association, the market heat of ethanol, which has been abandoned by the overseas disinfection market, has also attracted much attention since it entered April. It is reported that Japan, South Korea, Southeast Asia and other countries import superior index ethanol, and Guangdong and other regions mainly export disinfectant products such as hand sanitizer. At present, ethanol has obvious price advantages compared with isopropanol, and the future market is worthy of attention.

4. Due to the low international market and low domestic demand, the price of butadiene has been falling significantly. From the beginning of April to now, the price of domestic butadiene market has continued to fall broadly, with a drop of 31.17%. The main reason is that the contradiction between supply and demand is prominent and the low price of external market drags. The prices of butanediene manufacturers have been lowered for many times, but the market supply and demand pattern is still stagnant, and the pressure on the supply side still exists In the first place, the continuous reduction of external quotation has dragged down the domestic spot market, and in the second place, the downstream purchase mainly maintains rigid demand, while the inquiry purchase is still cautious. After the return of the Qingming holiday, the base price of domestic manufacturers in Northeast China was lowered and the transaction was not smooth. The supply price of many factories such as Sinopec was lowered many times, and the offer of the merchants followed the decline. However, the downstream purchase intention was still poor, and the domestic butadiene market remained depressed in the short term.

5. The products with obvious decline due to the blocked export and poor domestic sales are the most prominent ones, such as hydrogen peroxide. After the Qingming Festival, the price of hydrogen peroxide continued to fall, with a cumulative decline of 8.43% after the festival, ranking the second in the chemical industry sector. After the festival, the supply of hydrogen peroxide has been in a relaxed state, the paper and printing industry as a whole is in a downturn, export orders have been reduced, and hydrogen peroxide department is in a weak position In the situation of oversupply, the price has been falling all the way, and the short-term hydrogen peroxide Market is mainly weak.

Urea, another important product, is not necessarily. After the festival, it experienced a trend of first decline and then a small rebound. The overall situation is still in a low state. The main reason is that April is the traditional off-season of the domestic urea market, the agricultural demand is basically over, the industrial demand, the composite fertilizer factory mainly consumes the inventory in the previous period, and the demand of rubber plate factory is weak; on the export side, the lowest price of this Indian bidding is the east coast The lowest is 257.65cfr, and the lowest is 251.9cfr on the west coast. There are 11 enterprises bidding, with a bidding volume of nearly 1691 thousand tons. China’s supply of goods is small, and the actual support for the domestic market is insufficient. After the festival, the market trading atmosphere will improve later, and downstream manufacturers will follow up appropriately affected by the mentality of buying up and not buying down. In terms of logistics, high-speed freight may be charged from May 1, and the logistics pattern will be changed. It is expected that the domestic urea market will be stable in the short term.

6. Domestic terminal demand is low, the contradiction between supply and demand is prominent, and it is hard to be optimistic in the short term. Affected by this, inorganic chemicals (sulfur, calcium carbide, caustic soda, sulfuric acid, phosphoric acid, etc.), fluorine chemicals (fluorite, hydrofluoric acid, aluminum fluoride R22, etc.) and chemical fertilizer products (monoammonium phosphate, potassium sulfate, potassium chloride, etc.) are still in the low and even short-term decline.

From the perspective of industrial chain, in April, the chemical industry chains and plates were significantly differentiated, including aromatic and olefin plates, propylene industry chains, styrene industry chains and phenol ketone industry chains showing an upward trend, while chlor alkali plate, fluorine chemical industry and fertilizer plate showing a downward trend. In general, under the influence of low crude oil level and global epidemic situation, there are endless products with sharp rise and fall, epidemic prevention materials are over hyped, terminal demand is low, and the market is in an irrational state. Take propylene industrial chain and fluorine chemical industry as an example

Propylene industry chain. As shown in the figure below, the propylene industry chain experienced a sharp dive after the surge. The main reason is the impact of polypropylene propylene inflation. Currently, the overall upward trend plays an important role in the continued rise of the chemical industry index. According to the monitoring data of business association, from April 6 to April 14, upstream propane rose 47.59%, downstream PP 36.29%, propylene oxide 23.21%, butanol 21.32%, acrylic acid 16.32%, isooctanol 11.18%, acetone 47%, phenol 20.3%, all the products in the propylene industry chain were eye-catching in the whole chemical industry.

Fluorine chemical industry. In April, the market of fluorine chemical industry declined unilaterally, which is quite different from the trend of the whole chemical industry, as shown in the following figure of the trend of hydrofluoric acid industry chain. Fluorite and hydrofluoric acid, as raw materials of fluorine chemical industry, have declined in varying degrees since April. Fluorite and hydrofluoric acid have declined by 5.46% and 2.39%. Influenced by international health events, the export of refrigerant industry has been greatly hit. In addition, the domestic automobile industry has greatly shrunk, and the demand for downstream refrigerant has declined sharply. The upstream raw materials are in poor condition, and the market continues to fall. In addition, with the rise of temperature, the operating rate of domestic fluorite enterprises has increased, the supply of fluorite sources has increased, and the price of fluorite has gradually fallen. By the end of 14 days, the average price of fluorite in China was 2983 yuan / ton, the average price of hydrofluoric acid market was 10640 yuan / ton, and the operating rate of downstream refrigerant industry was about 30%. In recent years, the air conditioning industry has been stagnant, and there is strong resistance to high price raw materials. The manufacturers of hydrofluoric acid who are not active in purchasing hydrofluoric acid report heavy losses, accelerating the plunge of raw materials, and there is no good support in the later stage of fluorochemical industry. It is expected that the fluorochemical sector will go Love is still dominated by decline.

From the perspective of the chemical industry, the six consecutive declines in the end of the chemical market at the beginning of April stopped the rebound. First, the surge of raw materials and products under the massive demand for epidemic prevention materials has contributed to the rise of the chemical market; second, many products hit a five-year or ten-year low at the end of March, and the rebound of bottom reading products also played an important role in the early arrival of the turning point of the chemical market.

On March 20, China raised the export tax rebate rate for some chemicals. The Ministry of Finance and the State Administration of Taxation issued the announcement on improving the export tax rebate rate of some products. According to the announcement, the export tax rebate rate of ethylene, propylene, 1-butene, 2-butene, isoprene, acetylene, cyclohexane, o-xylene, m-xylene, styrene, ethylbenzene, glycol, propylene glycol, butanediol and other chemicals is set to 13%. Affected by the epidemic, China’s chemical terminal consumer goods market has declined significantly, coupled with the collapse of international crude oil prices, and the adjustment of export tax rebate rate is expected to ease the pressure on China’s chemical enterprises.

Compared with the trend of WTI crude oil, the trend of chemical industry market is consistent with that of crude oil in 2020. The whole chemical industry market keeps falling along with the trend of crude oil. Although the decline is lower than that of crude oil, the overall trend is consistent. The chemical industry index hit a new low at 598 on April 8 (Note: cycle index 2011-12-01 to now). However, since the turning point of the chemical market, the upward trend has been strong. Now, OPEC + has finally reached an agreement on production reduction, but the amount of production reduction is not enough to offset the decline in demand caused by the epidemic prevention and control. After the sharp rise of crude oil, it fell again, but the chemical market did not follow the trend of crude oil. On April 13, the chemical market continued to rise strongly. This round of chemical index continued to rise mainly due to the demand of mask market Under the influence of polypropylene propylene skyrocketing, driven by the propylene industrial chain upstream and downstream chemicals skyrocketing. On the 14th, propylene fell back rationally, but other products in the industrial chain haven’t been adjusted. How long can the chemical industry market continue to rise in this round? Is the spring of chemical market really coming? At present, with the rapid rise of raw materials, the sharply increased cost and the terminal market demand is far less than expected. Many chemical enterprises will have to reduce the operating rate or shut down. In the second quarter, they will also enter the traditional maintenance season of chemical enterprises. Currently, the terminal demand has not fully recovered, and the subsequent chemical industry may rely on production restriction and price protection to maintain the market. In the follow-up, more attention should be paid to the national policy level and the progress of the global epidemic.

1、 Price trend

According to the data of the bulk list of business agencies, the domestic dry process aluminum fluoride market price fell this week, with the average market price at the beginning of the week of 9266 yuan / ton and at the end of the week of 9166 yuan / ton, down 1.08% compared with last week’s price.

2、 Market analysis

This week, the price of aluminum fluoride fell: the factory price of aluminum fluoride of Zhengzhou Tianrui Crystal Technology Co., Ltd. was 8500 yuan / ton, that of Shandong LUZHENG Chemical Co., Ltd. was 9600 yuan / ton, and that of Zhengzhou Zerun Energy Chemical Co., Ltd. was 9500 yuan / ton.

Market analysis: this week, the price trend of hydrofluoric acid has declined. In the near future, the on-site manufacturers are not in good condition. Some domestic manufacturers are restarted. The domestic spot supply of hydrofluoric acid is sufficient, the purchasing demand is low, and the price trend of hydrofluoric acid market has fallen. In the near future, the price of raw material fluorite has declined. The market price of hydrofluoric acid has been affected to some extent, and the price trend of domestic hydrofluoric acid has declined. By the end of the week, the southern region The mainstream of hydrofluoric acid negotiation is 9500-10500 yuan / ton, and the price of hydrofluoric acid in the northern market is 10000-11000 yuan / ton. This week, the price of most manufacturers of aluminum fluoride remained stable, Zhengzhou Zerun slightly reduced, the manufacturers basically resumed production, and the price of aluminum fluoride fell steadily.

3、 Future forecast

Analysts of aluminum fluoride industry in the chemical branch of business society think: at present, the market price of hydrofluoric acid has a downward trend, and some manufacturers in the downstream aluminum fluoride market have also reduced. It is expected that the market price of aluminum fluoride will fall next week.