1、 Price trend

On June 12, the average ex factory price of oil-based glycol in North China was 3750 yuan / ton, the same as last week, according to the data of business agency.

On June 11, the market price of ethylene glycol in East China was 3555 yuan / ton, down 70 yuan / ton, or 1.93% from last Friday.

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

As of June 11, the ethylene glycol inventory in the main reservoir area of East China was about 1.386 million tons, a decrease of 3900 tons or 0.3% compared with last Thursday, an increase of 7600 tons or 0.58% compared with Monday. Stocks are still high, although the gains and losses are small.

In terms of shipment, this week, the main port of Zhangjiagang delivered about 5400 tons per day, and Taicang delivered about 9600 tons per day to the two warehouses. Although the delivery has improved, it is still on the low side.

At present, the operating rate of glycol is about 56%, and that of polyester downstream is about 88%. Although the polyester end operating rate is acceptable, but the traditional off-season of textile industry is coming, polyester demand is facing weakening.

In terms of units, the ethylene glycol unit with an annual output of 400000 tons of Inner Mongolia Rongxin Chemical Co., Ltd. began to produce products on June 6, and the current daily output is about 800 tons. The device was temporarily shut down for maintenance. The 300000 ton glycol unit of Guizhou Qianxi Coal Chemical Co., Ltd. has been shut down for maintenance since the middle of April, and it has gradually returned to normal, and its output is slowly increasing. The current load is about 30%..

Futures, international oil prices plummeted on the 11th, coupled with inventory pressure, glycol futures prices continued to decline after a limited return.

3、 Analysis and prediction

According to the source, the reason why the inventory changes little in this period is that the storage capacity is nearly saturated, and the capacity of domestic oil-based and coal-based glycol production will return one after another in the later period. Since the development of global public health events, the demand for textile export has been in a low level. It is expected that the price of ethylene glycol will not be able to increase significantly in the short term.

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, as of June 10, the average ex factory price of 1.2D * 38mm viscose staple fiber in China was 9571 yuan / ton, up 43 yuan / ton, or 0.45%, or 18.89% year-on-year. In the first ten days of June, the price of viscose manufacturers remained stable, and the main manufacturers reported 8800-9500 yuan / ton. Entering the textile off-season, the order demand of human cotton yarn is general, and the quotation is basically unchanged.

Last week (June 1-7), cottonseed resources were tight, and dealers were reluctant to sell at a high price. The output of cotton linter is limited, the manufacturer holds the price for delivery, the quotation of the low inventory continues to rise, and the downstream purchasing behavior supports the price rise. But entering the textile off-season, the demand is flat, and the rise of cotton linter is limited. Last week, industrial grade cotton lint was reported at 3550-3650 yuan / ton, up 50-100 yuan / ton from the previous week. It is a long time for new cashmere to go on the market, and cotton linter may keep stable, medium and strong.

On June 10, the commodity price ratio index of viscose staple fiber and human cotton yarn was 96.65, which was the same as the previous day, 3.72% lower than the highest point of 100.38 (2019-07-21), and 13.80% higher than the lowest point of 84.93 on January 5, 2020. (Note: cycle refers to 2019-01-01 till now). As of June 10, the average ex factory price of 30s cotton yarn in the downstream Shandong area was 13933 yuan / ton, which was the same as the price in early June, down 22.72% year on year. The upstream raw material support is strong, but the order recovery strength of human cotton yarn is general. The manufacturer considers comprehensively, maintains the current status, and the quotation is stable, with the price range of 12800-15000 yuan / ton.

Business analysts believe that cotton linter price will be strong, but the downstream order demand recovery is waiting for time, and viscose support is strong. Due to the general order, the price of cotton yarn manufacturers is not strong, and it is expected that the price will be stable.

According to the data monitored by the business agency, the average price of domestic premium DMF enterprises as of June 10 was 4783.33 yuan / ton, down 0.35% compared with the same period last week. This week, the market of DMF was stable.

This week, the domestic DMF market maintained a stable operation, and the factory actively arranged the delivery of orders. At present, the supply of spot goods is sufficient, the delivery is smooth, the purchasing enthusiasm is general, and the factory’s intention to hold the price is obvious. As of June 10, Luxi Chemical quoted 4400 yuan / ton, Zhangqiu 4550 yuan / ton, and Hualu Hengsheng 5400 yuan / ton. There is a slight gap in the price. The MF market price is 0.35% lower than the beginning of June. The downstream demand of DMF Poor, maintain light and stable operation in the early stage.

Upstream methanol: the receiving center of downstream enterprises such as Lubei refinery is higher, the price of methanol in the northwest is rising partially, the market transaction atmosphere is good, the main stream of Guanzhong is rising to 1390-1500 yuan / ton, the receiving price of Shandong and other enterprises is rising and the futures are boosting, the downstream and traders are active in replenishment, the trading atmosphere is active, and the main factories in Gansu have stopped selling.

On June 9, the chemical industry index was 674, up 4 points from yesterday, down 33.66% from 1016 (2012-03-13), the highest point in the cycle, and up 12.71% from 598, the lowest point on April 8, 2020. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-12-01 to now).

DMF analysts think: in the short term, DMF is weak and stable, weak and volatile. (the above prices are provided by the main DMF manufacturers all over the country and sorted out and analyzed by the business DMF analysts for reference only. For more details, please contact the relevant manufacturers for consultation.)

According to the data monitored by the business association, as of June 9, the price of PET water bottle manufacturers was 5850.00 yuan / ton, up 1.75% compared with the same period last week, up 100 yuan / ton. At present, the price of mainstream manufacturers is around 5800-5850 yuan / ton. The price of bottle chip manufacturers is rising steadily, while the price of pet market is rising slightly.

The polyester bottle Market in East China has risen slightly. Now, the quotation of mainstream manufacturers is around 5800-5850 yuan / ton. The focus of market transaction is slightly stretched. It is mainly based on watching carefully. The polyester bottle Market in South China runs smoothly. The main spot price is 5600-5750 yuan / ton. The transaction atmosphere is general. The downstream market just needs to purchase. At present, the spot supply is sufficient, the shipment is smooth, and the inventory is low. At present, Xiamen Tenglong Price 5700, Guangdong Taibao 5850 yuan / ton, Zhuhai China Resources 5850 yuan / ton, Zhejiang wankai 5850 yuan / ton, Yizheng Chemical fiber 5850 yuan / ton.

PTA raw materials are in strong operation, pet cost has brought favorable support, some manufacturers have raised their prices, and the current construction is at a high level, with sufficient supply and limited space for price rise, and the procurement is just needed.

On June 8, the rubber and plastic index was 606, up 6 points from yesterday, down 42.83% from 1060 (2012-03-14), the highest point in the cycle, and up 14.77% from 528, the lowest point on April 6, 2020. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-12-01 to now)

Pet analysts of the business club believe that the pet market is stable in the short term, and the downstream just needs to purchase. (the above prices are provided by PET major manufacturers all over the country and sorted out and analyzed by PET analysts in business, for reference only. For more details, please contact relevant manufacturers for consultation)

1、 Price trend:

According to the data of the bulk list of business agencies, the market of PA6 in China was active in early June, and the spot price of some brands rose to a certain extent. As of June 8, the main offer price of traders for Zhongzhu 2.75-2.85 was about 11900.00 yuan / ton, up 2.88% from the average price at the beginning of the month.

2、 Analysis of influencing factors:

The domestic supply of caprolactam upstream of PA6 decreased in May, and the supply shortage and price rose sharply. In addition, the raw material pure benzene market is boosted by the good crude oil and external market, and the price of caprolactam liquid is currently high and strong. At present, public health events have eased, foreign blockade measures have been gradually relaxed, and crude oil chemicals market has picked up. According to the data in the bulk list of business associations, the average ex factory price of domestic caprolactam liquid on June 1 was about 9916.76 yuan / ton, and the average ex factory price of domestic caprolactam liquid on June 8 was about 9983.33 yuan / ton, with a weekly increase of 0.67%. It is expected that caprolactam market will mainly be sorted and operated in the short term. It is suggested to pay attention to the demand follow-up of downstream polymerization plants in the future.

PA6 market in May rose steadily after the smooth operation of the trend, early this month domestic PA6 spot offer continued to strengthen. The upstream caprolactam inventory is at a low level, and there is cost support. At present, the high price hike operation is favorable for PA6 cost end. The situation of domestic resumption of work is good, and the increase of consumption demand for overseas plasticization is good for domestic enterprises. At present, the export situation of PA6 is warming up, and the demand of domestic polymerization and slicing plants has been improved limited, and the transaction situation is general.

3、 Future forecast:

Business analysts think: in early June, the domestic PA6 market is relatively strong, and the spot prices of different brands have increased to a certain extent. The upstream caprolactam inventory is low, and the supply is still tight, which strongly supports the cost end of PA6. The demand of downstream slicers is general, and the purchase strategy is the main one. The consumption of export plastic products increased, PA6 trading volume was fair, and the interest giving sentiment of merchants weakened. It is expected that PA6 market will still slightly increase in the near future.

1、 Price trend of sodium pyrosulfite in China

According to the monitoring of business news agency, the price of domestic sodium pyrosulfite continued to decline again this week. The average price of industrial grade sodium pyrosulfite at the beginning of the week was 1576.67 yuan / ton, and the average price at the end of the week was 1526.67 yuan / ton, down 3.17% in the week.

2、 Market analysis

This week, the trading volume of sodium pyrosulfite market is still light. The market price range of industrial grade sodium pyrosulfite is 1300-1600 yuan / ton, and most of the prices are 1400-1500 yuan / ton. The prices of raw materials in the upstream market remained low, the demand in the downstream market continued to be weak, the domestic sodium metabisulfite inventory continued to overstock, and under the pressure of strong supply and weak demand, some enterprises lowered the ex factory prices again in June, and the domestic market price of sodium metabisulfite continued to decline at a low level. (the above prices refer to the foreign quotations of domestic mainstream enterprises, some of which are temporarily excluded from the scope. The prices are for reference only and have nothing to do with the final pricing of the manufacturer. For details, please contact each manufacturer for consultation).

This week, the domestic soda price fell 1.3%, the sulfur price rose 5.7%, the raw material cost of sodium metabisulfite remained low as a whole, and the price of sodium metabisulfite in the future recovered.

3、 Future forecast

Business analysts believe that strong supply and weak demand, in the short term, the market price of sodium pyrosulfite will continue to be weak.

1、 Price trend

According to the data monitored by the business agency, on May 31, the domestic carbon black quotation was 7033 yuan / ton, with a slight fluctuation in the price range of 100-300 yuan / ton. This month’s carbon black market mainly fluctuated.

In 2019, China’s carbon black overcapacity becomes more serious, and low price competition becomes the normal industry. Affected by this, the unit gross profit of carbon black has been significantly narrowed, which makes the operating performance of carbon black enterprises decline significantly. After the Spring Festival in 2020, the downstream demand is weak, and the current low price is fluctuating.

2、 Market analysis

Industrial chain:

By the end of 2019, China’s carbon black production capacity has reached more than 8 million tons, which is a serious surplus and the production and operation of enterprises are difficult. According to the statistics of carbon black branch of China Rubber Industry Association, 21.21% of the 33 major member enterprises are in a state of loss. This year, this situation has not been effectively improved, and there is a trend of expansion. This can be reflected by the operating rate. Last year, the operating rate of carbon black industry was 50% – 60%, while the current operating rate is only 44%. In addition, blocked exports also put pressure on the domestic market. Affected by the epidemic, China’s total export of carbon black in the first four months was 234000 tons, down 10.6% compared with the same period last year; the total import of carbon black was 27000 tons, up 18.3% compared with the same period last year.

In terms of raw materials, affected by the epidemic situation, the coal tar market fluctuated greatly. After the strong price rise in early March, affected by the sharp drop of crude oil, the price quickly fell and the weak operation lasted for a month. Since then, affected by the production restriction, the coal tar market began to increase slightly, with the price rising by 50-100 yuan.

From the perspective of demand, the overall trend is on the rise. According to the data of the terminal automobile industry in April, the industry’s production and sales have gradually returned to the normal level. The month on month ratio of production and sales continues to maintain a rapid growth, and the year-on-year ratio also ended to decline, showing a small growth. With the improvement of domestic epidemic situation, infrastructure projects in various regions have been carried out in succession, logistics and road transportation have improved significantly, supporting the increase of market demand and consumption of engineering tire and all steel tire downstream of carbon black. In addition, at present, part of southern China has entered the busy farming season, and the demand for bias tyres is increasing; in northern China, when the busy farming season comes later, the dealers of bias tyres have also started to adjust their inventory to prepare for the busy farming season, and the trading atmosphere of tyre market has picked up.

listed company

On April 29, the annual report of China’s top three carbon black enterprises was published. According to the annual report, in 2019, black cat’s carbon black production and sales volume are all around 960000 tons. As the leader of carbon black industry, the company achieved an operating revenue of 6.544 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 17.09%; its net profit loss was 276 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 168.89%. For the first time, the operating revenue of Yongdong Co., Ltd. surpassed that of Longxing Chemical Co., Ltd., ranking second. The company’s operating revenue was 2.856 billion yuan, up 10.40% year on year, and its net profit was 91.036 million yuan, down 67.24%. The company’s carbon black production and sales reached 330000 tons, of which sales increased by 19.10% year on year. Longxing Chemical realized an operating revenue of 2.806 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 9.07%; and realized net profit of 19.2212 million yuan, a decrease of 85.52%. The company’s carbon black production and sales are about 450000 tons, ranking the second in China. Three companies said in their annual reports that the main reason for the decline in performance is the excess of carbon black products.

3、 Future forecast

In the second half of the year, the carbon black market may be out of the hot water and the price may rebound to the bottom, according to the carbon black data division of the chemical branch of the business society.

1、 Price trend:

According to the data of the bulk list of the business agency, the market of PA6 in May was positive, and the spot prices of all brands increased to a certain extent. As of May 31, the main offer price of traders for Zhongzhu 2.75-2.85 was about 115666.67 yuan / ton, an increase of 11.58% compared with the average price at the beginning of the month.

2、 Analysis of influencing factors:

This month, the domestic supply of caprolactam in the upstream of PA6 was tight, with less spot, and the price of caprolactam liquid rose sharply. According to the data in the bulk list of business associations, the average ex factory price of domestic caprolactam liquid at the beginning of the month was about 8533 yuan / ton, and the average price at the end of the month was around 9916 yuan / ton, with a monthly increase of 16.21%. In addition, the raw material pure benzene market was boosted by good crude oil and external market, and the raw material pure benzene rose 19.21% this month. With the recovery of public health events, foreign blockade measures have been gradually relaxed, and crude oil chemicals market has picked up. But at present, the domestic price is higher than the import price, which restrains the sharp rise of domestic pure benzene price. It is expected that caprolactam market will mainly be sorted and operated in the short term.

PA6 market in May rose steadily after the smooth running trend. According to the data of the bulk list of business associations, at the beginning of the month, the lowest price of the whole month is 10366.67 yuan / ton, of which the rising trend is mainly reflected in the first half of the month (the average price is up 9.65%), and on May 7, the spot price of domestic PA6 rose 200-600 yuan / ton, and then continued to rise rapidly. This is highly consistent with the upstream caprolactam market, and it is self-evident that the rising market is benefited by the upstream market. In terms of demand, the buyer’s mentality is cautious, and the improvement of downstream demand is limited. At the end of the month, due to the low price of some polymerization plants and merchants, the offer narrow callback was caused, but the impact on the market is weak.

3、 Future forecast:

Business analysts think: in May, the domestic PA6 market is relatively strong, and the spot prices of all brands have a certain increase. The supply of upstream caprolactam was tight this month, and PA6 cost end was strongly supported. The downstream market demand is basically met, and PA6 trading volume has a downward trend, but businesses generally hold the market. PA6 market is expected to adjust in a narrow range in the near future.

1、 Price trend

The domestic butadiene market was weak and fell. According to the monitoring price of the business agency, the domestic butadiene market price at the beginning of the week was 4301 yuan / ton, while the domestic butadiene market price at the end of the week was 4184 yuan / ton, down 2.71% in the week. The price rose 8.19% month on month and 51.10% year on year.

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

Product: this week, the domestic butadiene market was weak and fell. Under the pressure of supply, the market atmosphere was short. At the end of the month, the export sales of northeast manufacturers increased, but the inventory of downstream raw materials remained high, poor transaction dragged down the price of suppliers, intensified market bearish expectations, and further dragged down the market. In the week, the external quotation rose slightly, which supported the mentality of some merchants in East China. However, the ship arrived at the port abundantly. At the same time, under the pressure of the decline in the north, the downstream inquiry intention was low, and the market trading was relatively stagnant.

In terms of enterprises, Sinopec’s supply price of butadiene in East China is stable at 4500 yuan / ton; Liaotong Chemical Co., Ltd. has 338 tons of supplies for online auction and sales, with the base price reduced by 400 yuan / ton to 3510 yuan / ton on a month on month basis, and the total turnover is 182 tons; Fushun Petrochemical’s supply of goods is restarted for export, with the price at 3500 yuan / ton and the turnover at 450 tons; Dalian Hengli’s 140000 ton / year butadiene plant is recovering within the week, with the listing price at 3780 yuan / ton; 70000 tons / year butadiene plant in Jiutai, Inner Mongolia was restarted, with the quotation of 3700 yuan / ton.

Industrial chain: styrene butadiene rubber: this week, the mainstream factory price of domestic styrene butadiene rubber has not been adjusted, and the market offer range has declined. Businesses offer around the supply price, while the inquiry is lower than the range, and the trading atmosphere is cold.

Cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber: this week, the ex factory price of cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber is stable, the market offer is constantly falling, the inverted price is frequent, the trading atmosphere is becoming lighter, and the real deal is becoming increasingly stalemate. Within the week, Maoming and Haopu Shunding units continued to shut down, Yangzi Shunding units were restarted one after another, other mainstream Shunding units were in normal operation, and Wanda and other units were in normal operation after restart, so the stock market was still abundant.

 
3、 Future forecast

On the positive side, the external market rose slightly, and the main downstream industries started relatively high. On the negative side, the northern spot export increase, Shenhua Ningshan coal plant may be restarted in advance, and there are plenty of ships arriving at the port. Under the condition that the supply and demand fundamentals are difficult to be improved significantly, butadiene analysts of the business community predict that the domestic butadiene market will continue to decline in the short term, with low-end consolidation as the main factor, and the market price range is 3500-3800 yuan / ton

This week (5.25-5.29) the price of NBR fell slightly. According to the monitoring of the business agency, the price of NBR at the beginning of this week was 14000 yuan / ton, and the price at the end of this week was 13900 yuan / ton, with an overall slight drop of 0.71%.

The rise and fall of raw material prices show each other, and mutual constraints have an impact on the price of NBR. The price of butadiene has slightly declined, and the price of acrylonitrile has slightly increased. According to the business news agency, the price of butadiene was 4301 yuan / ton at the beginning of this week, 4184 yuan / ton at the end of the week, down 2.72% on the whole; the factory price of acrylonitrile Shanghai Secco was increased from 7375 yuan / ton at the beginning of this week to 7500 yuan / ton at the end of the week, up 1.69% on the whole.

From the perspective of NBR enterprises, except for the 15000 T / a plant shutdown in Lanhua, the other main NBR plants are operating normally, and the overall operating rate of NBR has little change. According to the business agency, Lanzhou Petrochemical’s 15000 ton nitrile rubber plant was shut down for maintenance on May 27, and it is planned to shut down for 25 days. Zhenjiang Nandi, Jinpu YINGSA and Ningbo shunze units are under normal operation.

From the downstream side, at present, the downstream factory mainly consumes the early inventory, with a small amount of inquiry on demand, and the overall sales volume of NBR is slightly flat.

Aftermarket forecast: the NBR analysts of the business club believe that the downstream demand is flat, and the overall start-up of NBR is not low. It is expected that the NBR market will continue to be weak in the later stage, and some brands may slightly increase due to the impact of the plant shutdown.