According to the price monitoring of the business agency, the domestic PTA Market weakened in July. As of July 29, the average market price was 3554 yuan / ton, down 1.47% compared with the beginning of the month, and 36.42% lower than that at the beginning of the month. In July, new units were put into operation, terminal demand was weak, supply increased, inventory was high, fundamentals were under pressure, prices fluctuated downward, cost support and terminal demand were purchased on bargain at the end of the month, and the tail showed a slight recovery.
In terms of factory price, Yisheng Petrochemical announced that the PTA contract settlement price in July was 3570 yuan / ton, down 90 yuan / ton compared with the previous month; Hengli Petrochemical Company’s PTA settlement price in July was 3528.07 yuan / ton, and the advance collection in August was 3700 yuan / ton; the PTA settlement price in July was 3528 yuan / ton, and the PTA advance collection in August was 3800 yuan / ton; the PTA settlement price in July was 3730 yuan / ton, and the advance collection in August was 3800 yuan / ton.
Enterprise name: capacity (change of 10000 tons of units)
Jiaxing Petrochemical 220 stopped at night on July 12 and planned to overhaul for about 2 weeks
Liwan polyester 70 restart pending
Restart of Tianjin Petrochemical 34 in shutdown to be determined
Restart of Pengwei Petrochemical 90 in shutdown to be determined
Hanbang Petrochemical Co., Ltd. will restart in shutdown
Restart of Jialong Petrochemical 60 in shutdown to be determined
Fuhai Chuang 450 was put into operation on July 9 and has returned to normal
Hengli Dalian 250 new units are all put into operation smoothly with a load of 90%
Eason Hainan 200 delayed maintenance plan
Luoyang Petrochemical Company started maintenance for 27 days at the end of July
Shanghai Yadong Petrochemical Co., Ltd. plans to overhaul for 3 days at the end of August
Huabin Petrochemical 140 plans to stop for maintenance in mid and late August
Ningbo Taihua 120 is scheduled to stop for maintenance on August 3, and overhaul for 15 days
In terms of the plant, the 4.5 million ton PTA plant of fuhaichuang was put into operation with reduced load on July 9 and restored to full load on July 14. Jiaxing Petrochemical’s 2.2 million ton PTA plant was shut down in the evening of July 12, and it is planned to overhaul for about 2 weeks. Luoyang Petrochemical 32.5 plans to overhaul at the end of July. PTA start-up load decreased from 92% at the beginning of the month to about 88%, but it remained high. The new plant Hengli Dalian line 5 is 2.5 million tons, of which 1.25 million tons were put into operation on June 28, produced products on June 29 and started operation on July 2 to 90%. Another production line of 1.25 million tons was put into operation on the evening of July 11, and the overall load has reached 90%.
At present, PTA processing cost is more than 550 yuan / ton, and most of the plants are not less active in production, so they postpone the maintenance plan one after another. At present, PTA plant maintenance plan is mostly concentrated in August. Huabin Petrochemical 1.4 million tons / year unit is planned to be shut down for maintenance in late August, Ningbo Taihua 1.2 million tons / year unit is expected to be shut down for about half a month on August 3, and Shanghai Yadong Petrochemical 700 thousand tons / year unit is planned to be overhauled for 3 days at the end of August. It is expected that PTA plant will be overhauled as planned in August, and the start-up load will decrease slightly.
In terms of inventory, PTA market is still facing a certain contradiction between supply and demand. The demand side support is weak, and the inventory is further increased. PTA total inventory has been hovering at a historic high of 3.5 million tons in recent months. The possibility of large-scale removal of PTA inventory in the future is small, and the imbalance between supply and demand will remain for a long time. At present, the social inventory of PTA is constantly rising. As of the week of July 24, PTA social inventory reached 3.95 million tons, a record high.
Affected by the OPEC + crude oil production reduction agreement, the oil price is supported. At present, the factors restricting the continued rise of crude oil are still the concerns of demand. The crude oil price in July has significantly narrowed. As of July 28, the closing price of WTI main contract was 41.04 USD / barrel, up 3.06% compared with the beginning of the month. As of July 28, Asian PX (CFR China) closed at US $558 / T, up 3.14% from the beginning of the month. Recently, overseas units have come to an end and are being restarted gradually. The domestic start-up load is basically stable. At present, PX is still in a deficit state. With the recovery of plants, PX inventory has been significantly accumulated, and the domestic social inventory has reached a high level of 2.5 million tons.
In terms of downstream demand, Jinyi polyester plant was put into operation, and polyester production capacity was increased by 100000 tons / year. Polyester comprehensive operation rose to more than 87%. The characteristics of the off-season are obvious, the foreign trade demand is still in the recovery period, the number of orders is small, the terminal textile market is still light, the enthusiasm of textile factories to purchase raw materials is not high, and the transaction atmosphere is general. At the same time, with the gradual deepening of summer, some weaving and printing and dyeing enterprises have entered the summer vacation mode, which has a negative impact on the upstream product delivery. Under the background of textile off-season, the start-up rate of Jiangsu and Zhejiang decreased to around 55%, which was at a low level year on year. The demand for raw materials gradually weakened, resulting in the continuous accumulation of inventory, high inventory has become a common problem, the overall inventory of polyester market is concentrated in 30-39 days; in terms of specific products, POY inventory is up to 9-16 days, FDY inventory is around 20-27 days, and DTY inventory is about 28-39 days. Near the end of the month procurement, polyester factories generally reduce the preferential power, have a strong speculation mentality.
Xia Ting, an analyst at the business agency, believes that at present, raw crude oil and PX are beneficial to PTA. However, with the recovery of domestic PX plant maintenance and the increase of overall supply pressure, PX will show a state of accelerating accumulation of stocks, and will face the dilemma of accumulation or even expansion. Therefore, in the future, the price of PX will be under pressure, and the cost side support will be weakened. At the same time, PTA start-up and inventory are maintained at a high level, and the contradiction between supply and demand is difficult to improve under the background of off-season terminal, and the market is expected to weaken in early August. In the second ten days of August, PTA plant maintenance will increase, and the inventory pressure may decrease. In addition, the recovery of orders in the terminal textile market will boost the upstream market to a certain extent. Therefore, it is expected that PTA Market in August will show a “V” trend.