1、 Price trend

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, the sulfur production price in East China was 653.33 yuan / ton during the week, and the price was stable during the week, down 30.74% compared with the same period last year.

2、 Market analysis

This week, the sulfur price trend in East China was stable, the quotation of local refineries remained stable within the week, the domestic sulfur market was generally weak, the sorting operation was carried out, the downstream plants were not enthusiastic to purchase in the market, the trading was mainly on demand, the market operation mentality was not active, and the operators were cautious under the guidance of lack of information. During the week, Sinopec’s quotation of solid-liquid sulfur in East China and Shandong was stable; Sinopec’s price in North China increased by 20 yuan / ton, and the price of solid sulfur was 530-630 yuan / ton, with little price increase.

In the downstream, the domestic demand for phosphate fertilizer is weak, and it is mainly purchased on demand. This week, the domestic market of ammonium phosphate maintained stable operation, the prices of Monoammonium and diammonium had no obvious change, and the trend was stable. At present, the demand was in the off-season, the domestic market was light, and the enterprise mentality was general. In the aspect of sulfuric acid, the manufacturers have less inventory and higher downstream demand, and the price trend in Shandong Province is rising.

3、 Future forecast

Aftermarket forecast: the sulfur analysts of the business agency believe that although the domestic sulfur market quotation this week is generally stable, the enthusiasm of the factories and traders to wait for the market is not high, and the purchase in the market is often replenished on demand, and the overall market lacks effective support, and more standstill is given priority to. It is expected that the short-term sulfur market situation will be weak and sorted out.

Business agency data monitoring showed that the average spot price of domestic gold on the 13th was 400.58 yuan / g, up 0.21% compared with 399.75 yuan / G on the first day, 16.94% higher than 342.54 yuan / g at the beginning of the year (01.01), and 20.75% higher than that of 331.75 yuan / G, the valley value of the year (3.19).

On the 13th, the domestic spot price of silver was 4447.33 yuan / kg, an increase of 1.73% compared with the spot price of 4371.67 yuan / kg on the first day; the spot price of silver at the beginning of the year (01.01) was 4281.67 yuan / kg, a decrease of 1.62%; and the spot price of silver was 2942.67 yuan / kg, up 51.13% compared with the spot price of silver at the beginning of the year (3.19).

400 yuan / g at the gold station

In 2020, the gold price rose sharply, and the spot gold price broke through 400 yuan / g for the first time last week

（1） In addition, the central banks of various countries have relatively loose capital prices, frequent capital market liberalization and high liquidity.

（2） The major Western economies are greatly affected by the epidemic, and their economic expectations are poor. There is a surge in demand to protect against currency depreciation or economic downside risks.

（3） Under the influence of money making effect, the total scale of global gold ETF increased by 25% in the first half of the year due to the market expectation of buying up but not buying down.

Silver bottom rose 51.13% and jumped out of the “epidemic pit”

Silver has a strong industrial attribute. In the early stage, it was dragged down by the overall market of nonferrous metals plate, and the decline was relatively large. Due to the influence of precious metals, the decline was small. In March, silver led the decline of nonferrous metals plate, and fell to the historical low of nearly nine years.

Recently, the non-ferrous plate strong return, silver prices also rise, gold and silver ratio gradually return.

There are many investment channels for precious metals, and we should operate cautiously in the future

Mainstream gold investment: Gold Fund and gold futures There are many ways of gold spot investment, such as Shanghai gold exchange spot contract and physical gold (gold bar) investment. Among them, spot contract can be divided into spot firm offer contract, spot spot spot contract, spot deferred settlement contract and cash delivery deferred contract. Spot real offer contract is the same as physical gold investment and has no leverage The advantages of other spot contracts are the introduction of leverage trading system, the use of margin trading, short-term operation, high yield and high risk. It is easy for ordinary people to confuse that bank paper gold is also spot gold investment. In fact, its subject matter is the certificate of gold ownership rather than real gold, which belongs to precious metal derivative products. Most banks can only buy it and the Investment Commission is relatively high.

At present, the price of precious metal gold is running around 400 yuan / g, which is relatively high. It is at the peak price in recent 10 years, and it is mainly operated with caution in the future market. As for gold bar investment, it is estimated that the investment cost performance is not high because of its lack of leverage and full payment. After breaking through the 400 resistance level, we will wait and see the interest rate policies of central banks, US dollar liquidity, inflation expectations and changes in the epidemic situation.

According to the sample data monitored by the business agency, the domestic BDO market price was 7880 yuan / ton at the beginning and end of the week, down 4.60% month on month and 14.35% year-on-year.

This week, the domestic BDO market is weak and deadlocked. The whole line of Meike has been restarted, and the load is increasing slowly; however, the whole line of Tunhe river has been shut down for maintenance and Kaixiang in the same period due to the device problems, and the start-up load in the site has no obvious change and continues to operate at a relatively low level. The supplier has a strong attitude to support the market, the offer is stable and upward, and some manufacturers control sales to stimulate downstream buying. However, the downstream response to this is flat, the operating rate of various industries is flat compared with the previous period, and the early stage inventory is mainly digested. The contract negotiation is relatively stable, and a small number of just needed spot positions are replenished. The lower reaches are in conflict with high prices, and large orders negotiate to depress prices; the main suppliers and demanders are in a dilemma of ups and downs in the focus of negotiations.

In terms of the plant, this week, Meike restarted on July 5, and the load was slowly increasing; Tunhe was shut down for maintenance on July 5; Kaixiang planned to shut down for maintenance on July 10 due to device problems; Tianye phase I 30000 ton unit was shut down for maintenance on May 18, and the restart time was not determined; Dongyuan, Ronghe and Xinye were shut down for repair, and the restart time of the other device was uncertain; the load of Hemei No.1 plant was 80%, and the restart time of the other device was uncertain; and The cat will be stopped for maintenance on June 25, with an estimated 20 days; Panjin Dalian will be stopped for maintenance on June 10 to the middle and late July.

In terms of raw materials, methanol prices have been strong this week, and the overall transaction is still active. Yankuang Yulin 1.3 million ton methanol plant in Shaanxi Inner Mongolia region has been shut down since July 6. Cathay Pacific and jinchengtai continue to maintain maintenance status, Xinao and Rongxin maintain low load operation, the upstream supply is significantly reduced, the factory’s delivery pressure is small, and the production and sales balance is maintained in the week. In the second half of the week, the new price of the southern line is pushed in a narrow range, and the transaction of new orders is less than that at the beginning of the week.

Calcium carbide: the regional performance of domestic calcium carbide market is obvious this week. In terms of supply, Ningxia and Wuhai are in sufficient supply, with a reduction of 30-50 yuan / ton. Under the influence of limited power supply and cost pressure, the starting load is low and the supply capacity is reduced. In terms of demand, Shaanxi Province has sufficient and stable goods, Henan Province has a positive purchase, and the arrival volume is at a low level. North China, affected by the supply contraction in the Wumeng region, has a positive purchase.

Downstream: PBT: the load of Kaixiang, Tunhe, Changshu Changchun and Wuxi Xingsheng is about 50%; Meizhou Bay, Shandong weijiao and Meiyuan units are in normal operation; Kanghui two lines are about 60%; Yizheng Chemical fiber is about 60%. A 60000 ton production line is planned to be overhauled on July 15, with an estimated 20 days. PTMEG: the load of supporting PTMEG is about 60%. External mining plant: Xiaoxing load is about 60-70%; Sanlong full load operation.

At present, the factory is still in a state of loss. Meanwhile, the start-up on the floor is low. Under the willingness of suppliers to make profits, the offer is firm and the sales volume is controlled. The downstream load is also low, and some PBT factories have production line maintenance plan in mid July, so the demand may be reduced slightly, and the demand side support is insufficient. At present, the basic news is flat and lacks effective guidance. BDO analysts of business agency predict that the consolidation of domestic BDO market in the short term will be the main trend, and there is no rule out that there may be a small push up, focusing on the change of mentality of the supply and demand side.

1、 Price trend

2、 Market analysis

According to business agency data, potassium sulfate Market is stable this week. Mannheim potassium sulfate factory: 50% powder 2550; 50% particles and 52% water soluble powder about 2650. The report station of potassium sulfate manufacturer in water salt system: Xinjiang 52% powder 2450; Qinghai 50% powder 2250-2300. The market of potassium sulfate is mainly stable, and the market is mostly 52 full water soluble demand. The mainstream market quotation is about 2550-2700 yuan / ton. The overall sales situation is good. Because there is no stock of potassium sulfate for the time being, and the price of potassium chloride is stable, the market should be more stable. It is not ruled out that the local small rise is not ruled out. At present, the demand is not very prosperous. The price rise is intentional, but there is not enough power.

3、 Future forecast

Business Club potassium sulfate analysts believe: potassium sulfate is temporarily out of stock, and the price of potassium chloride has stabilized, so the market is mainly stable in the short term.

According to the data monitored by the business agency, as of July 7, the average price of domestic rubber grade white carbon black was 4566.67 yuan / ton. This week, the domestic rubber grade silica ran smoothly with limited demand. The silica market as a whole remained stable, with normal shipment and general inventory.

Since 2020, due to the influence of public events, the silica market continues to operate in a weak position, with a cold trading atmosphere and insufficient demand. Under the pressure of cost, enterprises are operating under pressure, and some enterprises limit production and stop production, which has a huge impact on the whole industry. Low prices are frequent, and the transaction scope is maintained at the cost line and low level. As of July 2020, the mainstream of rubber grade silica is at present The price is 4000-5000 yuan / ton, which is 1.44% lower than the price in early March. Rubber grade silica plays an important role in the application of “green tire”. It has the advantages of environmental protection. The amount of exhaust gas discharged in the production process of tire is far lower than that of traditional manufacturing. Moreover, the tire itself has low rolling resistance, energy saving and emission reduction. It plays an important role in reducing air pollution and environmental protection compared with traditional tires Compared with “green tire”, it has the characteristics of wear resistance, moisture resistance and skid resistance, which can increase the service life of the tire.

The upstream hydrochloric acid is running steadily as a whole, and the downstream purchasing enthusiasm is general, and the shipment is smooth. At present, the mainstream price of hydrochloric acid in North China is 300-450 yuan / ton.

On July 6, the hydrochloric acid commodity index was 92.11, up 0.66 points compared with yesterday, 7.89% lower than 100.00 points (2011-09-12), and 412.29% higher than the lowest 17.98 points on September 05, 2012. (Note: period refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

On July 6, the chemical index was 671, unchanged with yesterday, down 33.96% from 1016 (2012-03-13), and 12.21% higher than 598, the lowest point on April 8, 2020. (Note: period refers to 2011-12-01 to now)

Business agency silica analysts believe: silica market overall stable in the short term. (the above prices are provided by major silica manufacturers all over the country and sorted out and analyzed by business silica analysts for reference only. Please contact relevant manufacturers for more price details.)

1、 Price trend chart of nitric acid Market

Nitric acid price curve

According to the monitoring of business agency, the average price of nitric acid in East China this week is 1450 yuan / ton, and the quotation is stable.

2、 Market analysis

The price of concentrated nitric acid is basically stable this week. The quotation of Jiangsu Hongze Yinzhu Chemical Co., Ltd. is 1300 yuan / T, which is flat compared with last week; Anhui Jinhe offers 1350-1400 yuan / T, which is flat compared with last week; Shandong helitai Chemical Co., Ltd. offers 1700 yuan / T, which is flat compared with last week; nitric acid market demand is stable, and manufacturer’s quotation is stable.

According to the monitoring of the business agency, the liquid ammonia in the upstream fluctuated in a wide range in June, returning to a weak position at the end of the month, which was detrimental to the price of nitric acid. For the downstream aniline, the aniline price dropped this week. On July 3, the aniline price in Shandong was 4100-4180 yuan / ton, and that in East China was 4100-4300 yuan / ton, a decrease of 4.58% compared with last week. For the downstream TDI, according to the data from the business club’s large list, the TDI market in East China on June 30 was as follows The average price was 10566.67 yuan / ton, down 1.83% from the previous day.

3、 Future forecast

Downstream market weakness, business community nitric acid analysts predict that the price of nitric acid will decline.

1、 Domestic sodium pyrosulfite price trend chart

According to the monitoring of the business agency, the domestic sodium pyrosulfite price continued to decline at the bottom this week. The average price of industrial sodium pyrosulfite at the beginning of the week was 1526.67 yuan / ton, while that at the weekend was 1383.33 yuan / ton, down 9.39%.

2、 Market analysis

This week, the overall market situation of sodium pyrosulfite is still weak. The price range of industrial sodium pyrosulfite is 1200-1500 yuan / ton, and most of the prices are around 1400 yuan / ton. The continuous weakness of downstream demand leads to the overstock of domestic sodium metabisulfite inventory. Downstream trade entities are cautious in purchasing. Enterprises mainly complete orders from old customers, but the number of new orders is limited. The atmosphere of market transaction is general and fast in and fast out are the main factors. After entering July, some manufacturers lowered the factory price again, and the domestic sodium metabisulfite market price went down again. (the above prices all refer to the external quotation of domestic mainstream enterprises, and some unreported enterprises are not included in the scope temporarily. The prices are for reference only and have nothing to do with the final pricing of manufacturers. Please contact all manufacturers for details.).

The price of sodium sulfite and sodium sulfite remained relatively stable, while the price of sodium sulfite remained relatively stable.

3、 Future forecast

Business agency analysts believe that the problem of strong market supply and weak demand is difficult to ease in the short term, and the market price of sodium pyrosulfite is under pressure in the short term.

The crude benzene commodity index on June 30 was 39.65, unchanged with yesterday, 69.93% lower than 131.84 (2013-01-28), and 29.83% higher than the lowest point of 30.54 on April 8, 2020. (Note: period refers to 2011-09-01 to now).

In June 2020, the crude benzene market will rise first and then restrain. The ex factory price in North China will be 2801.67 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month and 2531.67 yuan / ton at the end of the month, with a monthly drop of 9.64%.

Summary of Sinopec pure benzene price adjustment in June 2020 (unit: yuan / ton)

Price adjustment amount after date adjustment

June 5 3600 + 100

June 10 3700 + 100

June 15 3600 – 100

19 June 3550 – 50

June 23 3500 – 50

June 24 3450 – 50

June 28 3250 – 200

In June 2020, Sinopec increased the ex factory price of pure benzene twice and lowered it five times, with a cumulative decrease of 250 yuan / ton. By the end of the month, Sinopec North China pure benzene implemented 3250 yuan / ton, down 250 yuan / ton compared with the previous month.

At the beginning of the month, the domestic crude benzene price went up. Under the influence of the upward trend of international crude oil, the external market of pure benzene and the increase of Sinopec’s listed price of pure benzene, the bidding price of crude benzene was greatly increased. In addition, the operating rate of downstream hydrogenated benzene enterprises had reached a high level in 2020, which promoted the price of crude benzene to further increase, the market mentality was good, and the market recovered significantly. Sinopec Huabei lowered the price of pure benzene twice in a row in the middle of June, with a cumulative reduction of 150 yuan / ton and the implementation of 3550 yuan / ton. The external market of pure benzene also continued to decline, which affected the overall mentality of the crude benzene market. In addition, after the crude benzene price was raised on November 11, the downstream hydrobenzene enterprises’ cost pressure increased, and they were more resistant to the high price crude oil. The market mentality was poor, the bearish atmosphere was strong, and the receiving situation was not good. Crude benzene fundamentals were under pressure, and crude benzene fell back to the increase of this month, and the price was basically the same as that at the beginning of the month. After entering the last ten days of the year, the new round of tender price of crude benzene was significantly lowered in advance on the last working day before the festival. The bidding price of mainstream enterprises in Shandong was 2530-2535 yuan / ton, with a reduction rate of about 350 yuan / ton. The pure benzene market continued to decline. Sinopec adjusted the price of pure benzene to 3450 yuan / ton for two consecutive days, The reduction range was 100 yuan / ton, and the external market of pure benzene also continued to decline. In addition, the frequent rise and fall of crude oil market in recent years led to the aggravation of market wait-and-see sentiment. The high port inventory of pure benzene affected the overall mentality of the crude benzene market. The bearish atmosphere was strong and the situation of receiving goods was not good. The crude benzene price entered the downward channel.

In terms of supply, although the coking enterprises in Shandong and Shanxi are affected by various production restriction factors, the operating rate has decreased to a certain extent, but the current profits of coke are high, the downstream demand is strong, the coking enterprises start higher, the overall supply of crude benzol has not decreased, and the overall inventory is on the high side. The crude benzene inventory purchased by downstream hydrobenzene enterprises on a bargain in the early stage is more, which is not digested in a short period of time In the end, the overall social inventory is high, crude benzene price is difficult to have action.

Price changes of domestic main hydrobenzene markets in June 2020 (unit: yuan / ton)

Monthly price rise and fall on the 15th and 30th

East China 3500-3600 3700 ～ 3800 3000-3150-475

Shandong area 3400-3500 3650-3700 3000-3050-425

Negative factors occurred frequently in the downstream hydrobenzene market. The hydrobenzene market fundamentals were under pressure in June when the price of pure benzene continued to decline. As the price of pure benzene continued to decline, the pressure of enterprise cost increased, and the crude benzene price was continuously suppressed. The downstream start-up of hydrobenzene also continued to decline this month. The whole industrial chain is in the downward channel, and the downstream demand pressure of crude benzene market is large.

In the aftermarket, the business community believed that crude oil prices suck, the whole industry chain market sentiment was strong, the port inventory of benzene was high, prices continued to decline, crude benzene social inventory was high, downstream demand was not strong, crude benzene market pressure was bigger, the crude benzene market pressure was expected to be greater in the near future, and the future market still needs to focus on crude benzene and benzene inventory.

OPEC and Russia may ease production cuts from August, and oil prices may come under pressure

Summary: according to recent sources, OPEC and Russia may ease production reduction from August, which will put pressure on future oil prices. Four OPEC + sources said that with global oil demand recovering and oil prices rebounding from lows, OPEC and Russia may loosen their previous record production reduction agreement since August. OPEC and its allies have previously agreed to cut production by 9.7 million barrels / day from May to July, equivalent to 10% of global demand. The scale of production reduction has reached an all-time high.

OPEC and Russia have yet to discuss extending the production reduction agreement until August, which means the scale of production reduction is likely to drop to 7.7 million B / D, the source said. Yesterday, API data showed that crude oil inventory decreased by 8 million barrels, Cushing inventory increased by 1.64 million barrels, gasoline decreased by 2.46 million barrels, and distillate oil increased by 2.64 million barrels. The overall data is positive, but this is the data as of last Wednesday, which does not fully reflect the impact of recent US re isolation on demand. Focus on tonight’s EIA data. In the past two days, the gross profit of rbcL gasoline in the United States rose. Today, the Middle East to Far East freight rate fell to 1.12 from 1.81 on June 22, and EFS fell to 0.59. Crude oil bottomed out and rebounded in the second quarter. Our strategic suggestions are in line with the actual trend as a whole. In the report of “expected resumption of work, rough road for crude oil rise in May” on April 30, we proposed to buy on bargain, Brent reached the target of 42 and WTI reached the target of 38. According to the report “crude oil in June may fall back in June, the center of gravity moves upward” in the report on June 2. It is suggested to buy on bargain. Brent’s first target is around 45. The actual trend basically conforms to our expectation, and the highest drop of Brent is 44.

Industry news:

1. A spokesman for the national oil company (NOC) said on Monday that the company hopes to resume oil production after international negotiations ended the blockade of troops stationed in eastern Libya; and (2) the government of national unity (GNA), headquartered in Tripoli, recently repelled the eastern based state of Libya The LNA’s 14 month offensive has regained control of most of the northwest; ③ although Libya has been in a divided state since 2015, international agreements stipulate that only national oil companies can produce and export oil, and the blockade has caused billions of dollars in revenue losses to Libya; ④ a spokesman for the national oil company said in a statement that In recent weeks, under the supervision of the United Nations, the national oil company, the GNA and the countries in the region have held talks; ⑤ the spokesman said: “we hope that the countries in the region will lift the blockade and let us resume our work.” It is understood that Turkey supports GNA, while UAE, Russia and Egypt support LNA. The blockade was imposed because Turkey’s increasing support for GNA made it impossible for LNA to maintain its attack on Tripoli; and (6) previous data showed that Libya’s crude oil production before the blockade was about 1.2 million barrels / day, but in recent months, it has been less than 100000 barrels / day due to the blockade. However, this means that once the national oil company of Libya resumes production, it may lead to another 1 million barrels / day of surplus crude oil production in the market, which will make the balance of supply and demand more difficult

2. OPEC’s oil production in June decreased by 1.25 million B / D compared with that in May; 1) according to the estimation of petro logistics, the oil production of the organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) in June was 1.25 million B / D lower than that in May, as the organization was trying to implement the production reduction agreements reached with Russia and other allies. ② The OPEC + alliance, formed by OPEC and its allies, has agreed to cut production by 9.7 million barrels per day from May 1 to ease the sharp drop in oil prices and demand caused by the new coronavirus crisis. OPEC’s production reduction quota in this agreement is 6.084 million barrels per day. ③ “Excluding Iran, Libya and Venezuela, the remaining 10 OPEC countries are still 1.55 million barrels / day away from full implementation of the agreement,” petro logistics said in an email. Iraq, Nigeria and Kuwait have been the main countries that have reduced supply since May, while Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Angola have seen relatively limited reductions. ”

3. Russia plans to export 9.3 million tons of ultra-low sulfur diesel from the Baltic Sea in July and 1.167 million tons in June.

4. After the implementation rate of production reduction reached 96% in May, Russia intensified the reduction in June. As of last Sunday, Russian oil companies had produced a total of 35.62 million tons of crude oil and condensate this month, according to the cdu-tek Department of Russia’s energy ministry. According to the conversion rate of 7.33 barrels per ton, it is equivalent to an average of 9.324 million barrels per day. If Russia extracts condensate at the same level as in May (with a daily output of about 800000 barrels per day, according to the calculation of Bloomberg), the country’s daily crude oil production will reach 8.524 million barrels this month, further approaching the OPEC + production target.

5. Alberta governor Kenney: Alberta “urged” Texas to follow Canada’s lead in reducing oil production. Global oil supply is expected to be short in 12-18 months. “Optimistic” about the “strong future” of the oil industry.

6. Petroleum logistics, an oil transportation consultancy, said Iraq still needs to cut production by 300000 barrels a day to fully comply with the OPEC + agreement. OPEC and 10 non OPEC countries need to reduce production by 1.55 million B / D to fully comply with the OPEC + agreement.

1、 Price trend

According to the data from the business club’s bulk list, the domestic propylene (Shandong) market price experienced two and a half rounds of ups and downs this month, which was 6643 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month, 6845 yuan / ton at the end of the month, with a monthly increase of 3.04%; the monthly high price appeared on June 4, with a monthly price of 6906 yuan / ton, and the monthly low price appeared on June 13, with a monthly amplitude of 5.91%.

2、 Analysis and comment

At the beginning of June, Shandong propylene market increased by about 250 yuan / ton in a week, and the price in the middle of June showed an obvious correction, with a cumulative decrease of 350 yuan / ton in the seventh day of the second week. From June 14 in the middle of the month, the price stopped falling again and rose again. Last Friday, June 19, the price had risen 350-450 yuan / ton. The price remained stable at the weekend, falling about 250 yuan / ton from the 22nd to 26th. After the Dragon Boat Festival holiday, the price rose again from the 27th, and has risen by 250 yuan / ton today. The market transaction is between 6750 and 7050 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price is about 6850 yuan / ton. At present, the pressure of propylene manufacturers is small, and there are many sets of devices to transmit maintenance information.

On the upstream side, crude oil prices have declined slightly in the near future, but the future market is still bullish, and the overall situation is fair, which still has a pulling effect on propylene.

PP market at the beginning of this month has been generally stable after a small rise, with a monthly increase of 2.61%, which has little impact on propylene.

This month, the price of acrylic acid showed a step downward trend, with a monthly decline of 10.47% and a monthly amplitude of 11.15%, which had a negative impact on propylene.

Propylene oxide market continued to rise in the first half of this month, while it fluctuated slightly in the second half of this month, with a monthly increase of 12.31% and a monthly amplitude of 13.48%, which had a slight positive impact on propylene.

Epichlorohydrin fluctuated this month, with a monthly decline of 5.72%, which had a small negative impact on propylene.

Isopropanol, as one of the raw materials of foreign disinfectant, has been rising continuously in the first ten days of this month, while the price in the middle and last ten days is fluctuating and declining, with a monthly increase of 1.30% and a monthly amplitude of 21.16%, which may have a negative impact on propylene.

The domestic n-butanol price fluctuated and stabilized in the first half of this month, and continued to rise in the second half of this month, with a monthly increase of 6.89% and a monthly amplitude of 9.51%. It is reported that the operating rate of butanol is relatively high recently, which is good for the propylene market.

Octanol market rose steadily this month, with a monthly increase of 12.75%, and the operating rate was higher, which also had a positive impact on propylene.

The price of phenol in the East China market rose rapidly in the first ten days, remained stable in the middle of the year, and continued to stabilize after a small drop in the last ten days, with a monthly increase of 9.63% and a monthly amplitude of 15.56%.

The market trend of acetone in East China is similar to that of phenol. In the first ten days, the price of acetone rose rapidly, and remained stable in the middle of the year. In the last ten days, it continued to stabilize after a small drop, with a monthly increase of 16.06% and a monthly amplitude of 30.42%, which had a significant impact on the favorable effects of propylene.

3、 Future forecast

According to propylene analyst of chemical branch of business agency: in a comprehensive view, although the price of crude oil in the international crude oil market has been slightly reduced, the future market is still ideal, which has a certain positive effect on propylene. Downstream prices have been up and down, but the operating rate is ideal, trading is more active, manufacturers’ inventory pressure is small, and some units are out of service. Therefore, it is expected that propylene prices may still rise in recent days.