Data show that the natural rubber commodity index on August 27 was 34.18, up 0.15 points compared with yesterday, 65.82% lower than 100.00 points (2011-09-01), and 25.29% higher than 27.28 points, the lowest point on April 2, 2020. (Note: period refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

Figure 2: natural rubber mainstream price trend in the first half of August 2020

As can be seen from the trend chart of the first half of the month in Figure 2, the quotation on August 1 was 10860 yuan / ton, and that on the 15th was 11017.5 yuan / ton, with an increase rate of 1.45%; the highest point in the first half of the month was about 11132 yuan / ton on the 7th, and the lowest point was 10822 yuan / ton on the third day, with the maximum amplitude of 2.86%.

Figure 3: price trend of natural rubber from the second half of August 2020 to now

As shown in Figure 3, the data of natural rubber (standard 1) in East China monitored by the business agency shows that the mainstream price of Baodao whole milk market was about 11017.5 yuan / ton on August 16, and 11587.5 yuan / ton on August 28, with an increase of 5.17% in the past half month. Among them, the highest point in the second half of the month is 11587.5 yuan / ton on 27 days, and the lowest is 11017.5 yuan / ton on 16 days. The maximum amplitude is also 5.17%.

Among many factors, the delay of new rubber and the shortage of spot rubber are the biggest factors leading to the rise of natural rubber market this month. In 2020, due to the special situation, epidemic situation, weather and other factors, the opening time of Southeast Asia production area was delayed, the release of raw material production was slow, and the rubber production was greatly affected, so the annual production reduction was inevitable. The market expects that the supply side of Southeast Asia will not increase indefinitely in the third and fourth quarters. At the same time, the amount of new rubber in Hainan and Yunnan production areas in China is not optimistic so far. Local traders say that the rubber warehouses in Kunming and Banna of Yunnan Province are basically empty, and the shortage of goods continues.

Spot glue is in short supply, which coincides with the golden nine silver ten traditional sales peak season. In recent months, the operating rate continued to rise slightly, and it is expected that the tire industry in the third quarter will be improved to some extent. At present, some enterprises have attracted the tide of price rise. In the context of economic recovery, downstream demand is gradually warming. According to a number of data, the warming of the automobile industry will bring about a sustained growth in the downstream demand of natural rubber since the third quarter. Although the speed is relatively slow, the golden age, silver and ten are coming, and there are still strong expectations in the industry for the peak season of downstream demand.

In terms of the aftermarket, the traditional consumption peak season is coming, and the purchasing demand is enhanced. In addition, there is a shortage of domestic rubber and some imported rubber in many places, and the trend of natural rubber concussion is expected to continue. However, some of the natural rubber trade has not made much profit so far. The rise of natural rubber will not be a continuous big rise. The market has high expectations for “gold, silver and ten”, and keeps a cautious and long-term view Point.

August 27, approaching the weekend, domestic adipic acid prices run smoothly. The manufacturer’s quotation is stable for the time being. The normal operating rate of the device is about 80%. The inventory pressure is obvious. The market is in a state of oversupply, the downstream demand is weak, and the off-season effect is still in effect. On the cost side, pure benzene has fallen slightly since late August, with an amplitude of nearly 1%. After the upward market of pure benzene in late July, the current periodic correction is insufficient to support the downstream adipic acid.

In terms of local markets:

The market of adipic acid in East China is weak and stable, with a slight rise and fall in the market price with limited range and few market inquiries. The downstream demand is weak. Most dealers follow the market and make profits to ship goods. The manufacturers’ inventory pressure is general and the transaction is cold. The mainstream prices in the market today are: Shandong source 6400-6600 yuan / T acceptance price, Jiangsu source acceptance price is 6500-6700 yuan / T, and the downstream is mainly rigid demand procurement.

Compared with the beginning of the week, the market of adipic acid in South China has not changed much, the market trading is generally inactive, dealers generally give in profits to ship goods, manufacturers’ inventory pressure is still large, the transaction is general, the mainstream market prices today are: Shandong source 6500-6700 yuan / T acceptance price, Jiangsu source acceptance price 6600-6800 yuan / T, downstream mainly rigid demand procurement.

This week, adipic acid is suffering from supply pressure and weak demand, which may still maintain a weak market. Price rise and fall powerless, do not rule out the possibility that prices continue to fall.

1、 Price trend of lithium hydroxide

(Figure: P value curve of lithium hydroxide products)

2、 Market analysis

On August 26, the market of industrial grade lithium hydroxide stabilized temporarily. As of August 26, the average price of domestic industrial grade lithium hydroxide enterprises was 54666.67 yuan / ton, which was flat compared with the beginning of the week, and fell by 4.09% year-on-year in a half year cycle, according to the data of the business club’s bulk list. At present, the spot market of lithium hydroxide is sporadic, and the market of industrial grade lithium hydroxide is mainly stable. The commodity index of lithium hydroxide on August 25 was 130.16, flat with yesterday, 65.88% lower than 381.48 (2016-09-12), and 30.16% higher than 100.00, the lowest point on September 04, 2014. (Note: period refers to 2014-09-01 to now)

According to customs statistics, in June 2020, China’s import volume of lithium hydroxide was 109.27 tons, the import amount of that month was about 760000 US dollars, and the average import price of that month was 6914.39 US dollars / ton; in June 2020, China’s export volume of lithium hydroxide was 4350.46 tons, the export amount of that month was about 40.98 million dollars, and the average export price of that month was 9420.3 dollars / ton.

According to the price monitoring of the upstream lithium carbonate, the overall price of lithium carbonate in East China market slightly increased in August. The industrial carbon price showed a small rise, but the electricity carbon price remained stable this month. As of August 26, the average price of industrial grade lithium carbonate in East China was 40000 yuan / ton, which was 300 yuan / ton higher than that at the beginning of the month (the average price of industrial carbon in East China was 39700 yuan / ton on August 1), an increase of 0.76%. On August 26, the average price of battery grade lithium carbonate in East China was 44900 yuan / ton, which remained stable compared with the average price at the beginning of the month (August 1: the average price of carbon in East China was 44900 yuan / ton).

3、 Future forecast

Business Club lithium hydroxide analysts believe that the price of upstream lithium carbonate has been slightly explored in the near future, the cost side has a certain support, and the inquiry of industrial grade lithium hydroxide is general. It is expected that the industrial grade lithium hydroxide Market will be stable in the short term.

1、 Price trend

According to the business club’s big list data, the domestic caprolactam price rose slightly this week. The average ex factory price of caprolactam on August 17 was 9416 yuan / ton, and that on August 23 was 9450 yuan / ton, with a price increase of 0.35%.

2、 Market analysis

Caprolactam prices rose slightly this week, with the operating rate of 79%. As of August 23, the price of caprolactam liquid of Shandong Luxi Chemical Co., Ltd. was 9000 yuan / ton, and the factory had delivered the factory in cash. The production capacity of the factory was 300000 tons. The actual transaction could be discussed. Nanjing Dongfang caprolactam liquid price is 9950 yuan / ton. The 400000 tons / year plant is in normal operation, and the caprolactam unit is in normal operation. Baling Hengyi caprolactam liquid price is 9700 yuan / T, 450000 tons / year, the plant is normally started up, accepted and delivered. The price of caprolactam liquid of Baling Petrochemical Company is 9700 yuan / ton, and the 300000 tons / year unit is normally started and accepted.

This week, the raw material of pure benzene in the North declined significantly, and the restart of downstream maintenance equipment was delayed, which put pressure on the supply and demand side of the north. The listed price of pure benzene in North China of Sinopec was reduced by 100 yuan / ton, while no adjustment was made in other regions. The market is waiting for Sinopec’s price guidance. This week, pure benzene port inventory is still high, but unloading pressure is reduced.

3、 Future forecast

Caprolactam analysts believe that the price of raw material pure benzene began to fall this week after rising, and the cost support was insufficient. The downstream demand has slightly improved, and caprolactam enterprises mainly support the price. It is expected that the low price of caprolactam in the short term will be the main finishing operation.

International crude oil price high narrow range shock, unable to boost domestic asphalt market price. At the same time, the supply of asphalt market is sufficient, and there is no driving force for the price of asphalt to rise. According to the price monitoring data of the business agency, the asphalt price was reported at 2525 yuan / ton on August 21, 0.10% higher than that at the beginning of the month.

This week’s meeting of the OPEC + Joint Ministerial Supervision Committee (jmmc) will put pressure on oil producers whose production exceeds the target to further reduce production in August September. However, the scale of OPEC production reduction has not been adjusted. This week, the international crude oil market lacks the directional news, the international crude oil price high level narrow range movement.

Recently, the northeast, North China and other regions have more rainfall, the asphalt market demand is general, the market transaction is light, and the asphalt price is falling. The rainfall in East China and Northern South China is obviously reduced, and the terminal road construction projects are gradually recovering, and the asphalt demand is recovering. Affected by the flood peak transit in Southwest China, the terminal demand is poor.

This week, the domestic asphalt plant operating rate was 67%, a slight decrease of 68% compared with last week. The operating rate of asphalt plant continued to maintain a high level. The speed of asphalt accumulation in refineries was fast, and the asphalt market inventory was sufficient.

Business agency analysts believe that the international crude oil price fluctuates at a high level, the impact of rainfall is gradually weakening, and the asphalt market will usher in the peak demand season, and the asphalt price is expected to rise.

1、 Price trend chart of nitric acid Market

Nitric acid price curve

According to the monitoring of business agency, the average price of nitric acid in East China this week was 1516 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week and 1500 yuan / ton at the weekend, down 1.1%.

2、 Market analysis

The price of concentrated nitric acid was stable. Jiangsu Hongze Yinzhu Chemical Co., Ltd. quoted 1400 yuan / T of concentrated nitric acid, which was flat compared with last time; Anhui Jinhe quoted 1300-1350 yuan / ton, which was about 50 yuan / ton lower than last week; Shandong helitai Chemical Co., Ltd. quoted 1750 yuan / ton, which was flat compared with last time; Huainan Aodeli chemical products Sales Co., Ltd. quoted 1330 yuan / ton of concentrated nitric acid, which was 70 yuan lower than last week/ The supply pressure of nitric acid market increased, the market trading was light, and the quotation of individual manufacturers declined.

According to the monitoring of the business agency, the upstream liquid ammonia rose by 1.62% this week; the average price of aniline in the lower reaches this week was 4350 yuan / ton, the quotation was stable; and the downstream TDI rose by 10.53%.

3、 Future forecast

To sum up, nitric acid analysts of the business community predict that the upstream and downstream support, nitric acid prices may rise.

1、 Trend analysis

Trade name: nitrile rubber

Latest price (August 19): 13533 yuan / ton

Analysis points: the domestic NBR market offer rose slightly, with the mainstream average price at 13533 yuan / ton, up 0.49% compared with the previous day. According to the monitoring of the business agency, the price of NBR in the domestic market rose slightly. The mainstream price of NBR 3305 in Lanhua was 12900-13100 yuan / ton, and that in Nandi 1052 was 14800-15200 yuan / ton.

The prices of butadiene and acrylonitrile continue to rise. According to the monitoring of the business agency, the domestic butadiene price is 5320 yuan / ton, and the ex factory price of acrylonitrile in Shanghai Secco is 7600 yuan / ton.

Aftermarket forecast: raw materials go up, NBR market is expected to rise slightly in the short term.

According to the data monitored by the business agency, as of August 18, the price quoted by pet water bottle manufacturers was 5466.67 yuan / ton, and the price of mainstream manufacturers was around 5400-5500 yuan / ton. The East China region maintained the sorting out, and the downstream was cautious to wait and see, and just needed procurement was the priority.

The pet market is in a weak position. The negotiation focus is low, the cost support is fair, the downstream demand is poor, the polyester bottle chip manufacturers are slow to ship, and the overall atmosphere is dull. At present, the mainstream manufacturers in East China offer around 5400-5500 yuan / ton, the mainstream market negotiation is around 5300-5400 yuan / ton, Xiamen Tenglong price is 5500 yuan / ton, Guangdong Taibao is 5450 yuan / ton, Zhuhai China Resources is 5550 yuan / ton, Zhejiang is 10000 yuan Kai 5450 yuan / ton, Yizheng Chemical fiber 5450 yuan / ton, mostly hold a cautious wait-and-see attitude.

The negotiation focus of upstream PTA market tends to be strong, with cautious wait-and-see, limited downstream demand and poor transaction atmosphere.

On August 17, the rubber and plastic index was 619 points, up 1 point compared with yesterday, 41.60% lower than 1060 (2012-03-14), and 17.23% higher than the lowest point of 528 on April 06, 2020. (Note: period refers to 2011-12-01 to now)

Pet analyst of business agency thinks: in the short term, the pet market shocks and arranges, looks carefully. (the above prices are provided by major pet manufacturers all over the country and analyzed by pet business analysts for reference only. Please contact relevant manufacturers for more price details.)

According to the price monitoring data of business agency, as of August 17, the reference average price of domestic n-propanol including packaging in mainstream areas was around 12200 yuan / ton. Compared with the price on August 1, the average price increased by 320 yuan / ton, or 2.80%.

Sales improved slightly in early August, and then stabilized after a small increase in the offer of n-propanol

In the first week of August, the overall high-level and narrow range operation of n-propanol market, the downstream demand improved compared with the end of July, and the shipment volume increased. On the 7th of the weekend, the n-propanol market went with the market, and the quotation of n-propanol bulk water in the secondary market in Shandong Province was slightly increased by 200-300 yuan / ton, and the overall market continued to operate stably.

In the second week, the overall performance of the domestic n-propanol market was stable, the inventory was low, the downstream demand was normal, the cost support was stable, the sales side of n-propanol market was calm, and the high-level quotations from factories and dealers were mainly stable. As of August 17, the bulk water price of n-propanol in Jiangsu, Zhejiang and Shanghai regions was around 10500-11000 yuan / ton; the packaging price of n-propanol in Shandong was around 11500-12500 yuan / ton, and some high-level quotations were 13000 yuan / ton (including packaging); the unit operation of n-propanol in Nanjing area was normal, and the ex factory bulk water price of n-propanol from Nanjing Rongxin Chemical Co., Ltd. was 11000 yuan / T. Dealers in different regions still have reservation on the price. It is not easy to monitor the price. As a result, the specific negotiation situation may be different. There are differences in each region. The actual negotiation is the main one. The future market needs to wait and see the change of raw material price and shipment.

In terms of raw materials, ethylene has shown a downward trend in the near future. Asian ethylene market prices fell, with CFR Northeast Asia closing at $755-765 per ton and CFR Southeast Asia closing at $695-705 per ton as of the 11th. The price of European ethylene market fell. As of the 11th, the price of European ethylene market was FD, which closed at 702-709 US dollars / ton in northwest Europe and 692-700 US dollars / ton in CIF northwest Europe. The price of ethylene in the United States rose. As of the 11th, the price was 385-403 US dollars / ton. Generally speaking, the Eurasian ethylene market was in a downward trend, while the US ethylene market had a large decline in the early stage, and now it is in a small rebound. The overall ethylene market demand is poor and the trading atmosphere is general.

Production status of n-propanol in China

In 2019, there are five n-propanol production enterprises in China, with a total capacity of about 220000 tons / year. Among the five manufacturers, except Zibo NOAO Chemical Co., Ltd., which has been shut down all year round, the other manufacturers are in normal production. Therefore, the actual domestic production capacity is about 160000 tons / year. The situation of each manufacturer is as follows:

It can be seen from the above table that the production capacity of n-propanol is relatively concentrated, with CR3 of 93%. Nanjing Nuo new materials account for 46% of the total capacity, Zibo NOAO 28%, Nanjing Rongxin chemical 19%, Changchun chemical and PetroChina Jinzhou Petrochemical Co., Ltd. the production capacity is relatively small. If considering the actual production capacity after Zibo NOAO has been shut down for many years, Nanjing nuo’ao and Nanjing Rongxin chemical are almost monopolized, and the two production capacities together account for 90% of the actual total capacity.

Stable demand for n-propanol and high stable operation in the future

The production and operation of n-propanol in China is normal, and the supply and demand relationship is generally maintained in a relatively balanced state. At present, n-propanol is relatively stable by downstream demand. Therefore, analysts of the n-propanol industry of the chemical branch of the business society believe that the domestic n-propanol market is mainly stable in the near future, the secondary market may adjust the price according to the factors such as inventory and sales volume, and pay attention to the cost of raw materials and the supply of goods in the later stage.

According to the monitoring of the business agency, the price of domestic anhydrous hydrofluoric acid dropped slightly this week. As of the end of the week, the market price of hydrofluoric acid was 8800 yuan / ton, down 0.23% from the beginning of the week, and 23.01% lower than that at the beginning of the week.

Recently, the domestic hydrofluoric acid price has dropped slightly. Up to now, the mainstream price of domestic hydrofluoric acid in various regions is 8000-8500 yuan / ton. The domestic hydrofluoric acid trading market is weak. The negative factors of hydrofluoric acid price fall include the following aspects:

First, the market price of hydrofluoric acid raw material fluorite decreased slightly. As of the end of the week, the domestic fluorite price was 2688.89 yuan / ton. Recently, the domestic spot supply of fluorite was sufficient, and the on-site shipment was not positive, and the price of fluorite dropped slightly. By the end of the weekend, the mainstream of domestic fluorite negotiation was RMB 2550-2700 / T. the decline of fluorite price was a negative effect on hydrofluoric acid market, and the domestic hydrofluoric acid market price declined.

Second: the domestic market of refrigerants is weak this week. Recently, the sales market of automobile industry is general, but the market of refrigerant downstream of the terminal remains at a low level. The demand for refrigerants has not been significantly improved. The foreign economy has been recovering continuously. However, the export of refrigerant terminals has not changed much. However, the domestic air conditioning industry has started to operate at a low level and the demand for maintenance and after-sales service is weak. On the whole, foreign demand is on the whole There was no significant improvement. At present, the load of refrigerant R22 manufacturers is not high, and the inventory is in a reasonable range. Although the market price has increased, the downstream receiving capacity is limited, and there is a lot of wait-and-see mood. The actual transaction center of gravity is shifted downward. Some traders are looking for positive shipment, and the quotation is slightly lower than the manufacturer’s ex factory price. There is a phenomenon of cost inversion. The mainstream of on-site negotiation is 16000-16500 yuan / ton 。 The market of R134a in China continues to decline and has fallen to the bottom. The automobile market continues to be depressed with weak demand. The focus of market trading has shifted down and the atmosphere of transaction is light. With sufficient supply of goods in the market and the impact of new production capacity entering the market, the competition is fierce, the supply side gradually forms a negative situation, the price keeps falling, the downstream demand is not improved, and the market price of hydrofluoric acid falls slightly.

Third, the domestic hydrofluoric acid spot supply is sufficient, the hydrofluoric acid on-site device operates stably, and the hydrofluoric acid market price is lower. So far, the mainstream hydrofluoric acid negotiation in the southern region is 8000-8500 yuan / ton, and the hydrofluoric acid price in the northern market is 8000-9000 yuan / ton. Recently, the price trend of domestic hydrofluoric acid market has dropped slightly. Some manufacturers report that hydrofluoric acid is still in the crack, and some manufacturers still have losses and the market is not good.

On the whole, affected by various negative factors, the domestic hydrofluoric acid market price fell down. In addition, the demand of downstream refrigerant industry did not significantly improve, and the upstream fluorite price fell. Chen Ling, an analyst of hydrofluoric acid in the business agency, believes that the market price of hydrofluoric acid may continue to decline.