1、 Price data

As of August 7, the mainstream ex factory average price of domestic refining and hydrotreating naphtha was 4700 yuan / ton, which was 2.45% higher than 4580 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week. The actual transaction price of hydrotreated naphtha was about 4600-4700 yuan / ton. Naphtha prices of local refineries rose alternately last week, with an increase of 100-200 yuan / ton. Manufacturers reported that the inventory pressure was generally reduced compared with the previous month, and the superimposed downstream demand slightly recovered, and naphtha prices rebounded.

The naphtha commodity index on August 7 was 58.10, flat with yesterday, down 43.38% from the cycle’s highest point of 102.62 (2012-09-24), and 37.55% higher than the lowest point of 42.24 on July 19, 2016. (Note: period refers to 2012-09-01 to now)

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

Last week, naphtha prices rose intensively and inventory pressure eased.

Upstream: according to the monitoring of the business agency, the international crude oil market fluctuated above $40, and the oil price reached its peak since March. The market’s positive and negative effects offset each other, and the market sentiment fell into anxiety. On the one hand, the economy is still in a slow recovery period, and the European and American economic stimulus plans are coming out soon. Compensatory production reduction in some OPEC + member countries is good, and the market supply has not yet made substantive action to relax production reduction. On the other hand, the epidemic situation in overseas countries is still more severe, and the number of new cases continues to soar, which makes the worry about crude oil demand rise obviously, and the oil price falls into a bottleneck period.

Downstream: according to the business club’s big list data, the domestic toluene market continued to rebound slightly last week. As of Friday, the domestic average price was about 3380 yuan / ton, up 0.6% from the previous week. The domestic xylene market rose slightly last week. As of Friday, the domestic average price was about 3550 yuan / ton, up 1.14% from the previous week. Domestic inventory pressure has been significantly reduced, and the risk of oversupply has been greatly reduced.

3、 Future forecast

Energy analysts of the business agency believe that the naphtha refining industry went up last week, the inventory pressure of manufacturers was relieved, and the downstream procurement was fair. It is expected that the price of locally refined and hydrotreated naphtha will temporarily stabilize in the near future, and there is insufficient driving force to continue to push up. The average price range may be 4550-4750 yuan / ton.

According to the sample data monitored by the business agency, the domestic BDO market price was 8200 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week, up 4.60% month on month and 12.39% lower than the same period last year.

The BDO market has been weak this week. The main factories such as Panjin Dalian, Dongyuan, Tunhe and Tianye are still in the process of parking, and the superimposed crane coal has been shut down for a week due to the upstream device problems, and the load inside the site is hovering at a low level; moreover, the transportation of some factories in Xinjiang is limited, and the spot supply is reduced. At the same time, the raw material side support is strong, the factory is still losing money, the supplier’s willingness to profit is strong, and the high offer is firm. However, the follow-up situation in the middle and lower reaches is general, some traders are cautious and the mainstream quotation is stable. This week, the downstream TPU and Pu slurry industry was suppressed by costs, and the price rose sharply, but the start-up change was not big, and the BDO procurement volume was limited. The main downstream factories mainly take delivery of goods in contract, while small orders are slightly higher than those in large ones. Moreover, after the restart of storage and parking devices, the favorable support at the supply side is weakened, and the operators are bearish on the future market, which makes it difficult for the market to push up sharply. Therefore, we should continue to pay attention to the device dynamics and the changes in downstream demand.

In terms of equipment, this week, Meike restarted on July 5 with a load of about 60%; Tunhe river was shut down for maintenance until the end of August; Kaixiang load was 60%; Dongyuan was in the process of shutdown, and it was planned to restart on August 10; Ronghe and Xinye stopped for maintenance, and the restart time was not determined; Hemei No.1 plant had a load of 80%, and the restart time of another device was uncertain; black cat load was 60%; Panjin Dalian was shut down for maintenance on June 10 to the beginning of August.

In terms of raw materials, methanol, this week’s methanol market range finishing, floating space 20-30 yuan / ton. The 300000 t / a methanol plant in Shilin, Inner Mongolia, is planned to be stopped for inspection, but the market stimulation is limited, and the bidding of each factory is slow, and the main stream is 1250-1280 yuan / ton. The maintenance of Baoji main plant in Guanzhong area is delayed, and the factory mentality is relatively firm, which has been increased three times in a week, but the high-end transaction is rare; the 1.2 million tons / year methanol plant in Xinjiang has steadily increased the load, but based on the public Due to the negative suppression of health events, the mainstream negotiations outside Xinjiang fell to 770-820 yuan / ton of spot exchange.

Calcium carbide: this week, the domestic calcium carbide market has slightly increased, with an increase of 50 yuan / ton. The production enterprises have a smooth delivery and low inventory. Some enterprises are in short supply, and the mentality of factory price adjustment is aggravated. Due to the high temperature in summer, calcium carbide enterprises are not stable in operation, and the supply is tight, and the overall market atmosphere is strong. In terms of the downstream, the vehicles waiting to be unloaded are low, and the procurement is active. From North China and East China, regional price adjustment has gradually appeared. Affected by the maintenance near the Northern Yuan Dynasty in Shaanxi Province, the mentality of stabilizing the price has been aggravated, and the main idea is to wait and see.

Downstream: PBT: the load of Kaixiang, Tunhe, Changshu Changchun and Wuxi Xingsheng is about 50%; Meizhou Bay, Shandong weijiao and Meiyuan units are in normal operation; Kanghui two lines are about 60%; Yizheng Chemical fiber is about 60%. A 60000 ton production line is planned to be overhauled on July 21, with an estimated 20 days. PTMEG: the load of supporting PTMEG is about 60%. Outsourcing plant: Xiaoxing load 70-80%, Sanlong full load operation. Other downstream: GBL industry load is 50%; PU slurry load is 50%; TPU current load is about 70-80%. The start-up of PBAT was stable.

At present, some units are still in the shutdown state, the spot supply is reduced, the factory inventory is controllable, and the short-term supply side is still good. In addition, some downstream and traders have a small amount of demand for replenishment. Under the support of the supply side, the focus of new single negotiation is expected to be explored, but the speed is slow and the range is limited. Although some downstream markets are better, they have little effect on the market due to the limited consumption; the main downstream market has little change, but there is still a short position expectation after inventory digestion. BDO analysts of business agency predict that the domestic BDO market will maintain stability next week, and the deposit may rise slightly, paying attention to the change of mentality of the supply and demand side and the actual order promotion.

The domestic ethanol market was high consolidation. Business agency monitoring showed that the domestic ethanol market price was 6212 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week and 6187 yuan / ton at the weekend. The price dropped slightly during the week, down 0.40%. The price rose by 2.27% month on month compared with the same period of last month, and the price increased by 15.01% compared with the same period last year.

This week, the domestic ethanol market is on the run, only Guangxi molasses ethanol is up. From the perspective of raw corn, first of all, the raw corn continues to be at a high level, and large factories in northern China have plans for shutdown and maintenance in succession this week; secondly, although the ethanol production enterprises in Henan have resumed production, their products have not yet entered the market; finally, at present, the downstream rigid demand is dominated, and the downstream demand is insufficient. Recently, the corn ethanol market in Northeast China has been stable. The company has plans to shut down in August. The company is reluctant to sell at low price and the inventory is not high. At present, the raw molasses is scarce, the cost of raw molasses is high, and affected by the surrounding areas, the molasses ethanol market in South China and Guangxi continues to rise this week. At present, there is only one molasses ethanol enterprise producing, and the enterprise’s quotation is rising, and the enterprise’s inventory is limited.

Logistics: at present, freight fluctuation is not big. This week, the freight rates of Heilongjiang Shandong Dezhou are 240 yuan / ton (floating up and down), 250 yuan / ton from Anhui Nanchang, 500 yuan / ton from Henan to Sichuan, and 160-220 yuan / ton from Qinzhou, Guangxi to Dongguan.

In terms of raw materials, corn: the price of corn is stable and weak. The heat of the 11th round of corn auction in Lincang has cooled down, and the transaction price has declined to varying degrees. The rising trend of grain ex warehouse price slowed down in Northeast China, and the purchase price of corn in Beigang was partially adjusted, and the quotation of traders in Southern Sales Area weakened. At present, the policy grain plan starts to put targeted rice to feed enterprises in the near future, which will affect the demand of feed corn in the future. In addition, the pace of temporary storage of corn in superimposed production areas accelerated, and the supply of corn in the market increased.

Ethyl acetate: the domestic ethyl acetate Market rose slightly this week. After the previous oversupply and continuous competition, the ethyl acetate Market was passively in a loss state. Recently, the load of Taixing Jinjiang ethyl acetate plant was reduced to 50%, and the ethyl acetate plant of Shandong jinyimeng was also shut down. The market supply will be reduced, which gradually alleviates the situation of market oversupply. The raw material acetic acid fell continuously last week, which eased the pressure of cost loss of ethyl acetate. After ethanol rose slightly this week, the supplier of ethyl acetate followed the trend and made a small increase in offer, driving the market transaction price higher.

In the future, the price of the 11th temporary storage corn auction fell slightly. At present, the maintenance of enterprises in Northeast China is relatively concentrated, involving a production capacity of 1.2 million tons, and it is possible to increase the maintenance capacity in the future. Enterprises in Henan Province have already produced products, and the supply is increasing. Under the condition of downstream rigid demand procurement, the market is likely to be weak with the increase of supply; the supply of raw material cassava in East China and Shandong is slowing down, and the enterprise may start to adjust. In the short term, the inventory of raw materials will be consumed, and the supply will decrease under the influence of raw materials, and the price may be adjusted. However, if the price in other places is stable, it will be adjusted The range is not big. Business agency ethanol analysts predict that the short-term domestic ethanol market high finishing operation.

In July 2020, the domestic tin ingot Market fluctuated and rose. The average price of domestic market was 139387.50 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month and 145475 yuan / ton at the end of the month, up 4.37%.

On July 28, the tin commodity index was 75.42, up 2.24 points compared with yesterday, 24.77% lower than 100.25 points (2011-09-05), and 75.97% higher than the lowest 42.86 points on December 09, 2015. (Note: period refers to 2011-09-01 to now).

In July, the futures market of Lunxi, Wuxi, Shanghai and Wuxi showed an upward trend. Shanghai Wuxi stock exchange rose sharply to 154400 yuan / ton on July 28, and rose 6% at the beginning of the trading, and then fell back to the rational range. Mainly affected by the basic data such as the depreciation of the US dollar, tin, as a small variety of non-ferrous metals, is more likely to receive the impact of on-site funds.

The spot market followed the trend of Shanghai tin this month, and the overall trend was mainly concussion before 28 days. Before and after 28 days, with the sharp rise of Shanghai tin price, the spot market followed the trend, and the price rose sharply. After that, the spot market followed the downward trend. By the end of the month, the mainstream price in the domestic spot market was 144000-147500 yuan / ton. As of the end of the weekend, Shanghai Tin’s 10 contract will face a premium of 500 yuan / ton for Yunxi, 500 yuan / ton for Yunzi and 2000 yuan / ton for small brands.

In the upstream, Myanmar originally planned to resume supply by the end of this month. Compared with the current situation, the lifting of the relevant ban was delayed, the supply recovery was slow, and the upstream supply was tight, which would affect the tin ingot supply in the future.

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, in July 2020, there were 17 kinds of commodities in the non-ferrous plate with a month on month increase in the price list of bulk commodities, including 7 commodities with an increase of more than 5%, accounting for 31.8% of the total number of commodities monitored in the plate; the top three commodities were silver (25.91%), zinc (11.12%) and cobalt (10.81%). There were five kinds of commodities that declined on a month on month basis. The top three products were praseodymium oxide (- 4.03%), magnesium (- 3.72%) and dysprosium oxide (- 2.88%). This month, the average rise and fall was 4.31%. Precious metals performed well this month, and tin prices rose sharply at the end of the month due to the overall improvement of the metal market.

Houshi business agency believes that on the evening of July 27, Inner Mongolia Xingye Mining Co., Ltd. issued an announcement saying that up to now, the company’s wholly-owned subsidiary xiwuzhumuqin banner yinman Mining Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as “yinman mining”) has the conditions to resume production and will resume production in the near future. On the day of the announcement, Xingye mining got back the “work safety license” temporarily withheld by the emergency department of Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region. With the resumption of production of “yinman mining”, the current situation of tight supply of domestic mining end will be alleviated to some extent, and the downstream demand is relatively general at present. The price of tin spot market mostly follows the trend of futures market. It is expected that the future high-level oscillation will be dominant.

Relevant data:

U.S. tin imports and exports both declined month on month in May: Washington, D.C. reported on July 2, the data released by the U.S. Department of Commerce showed that the US tin import in May was 2538436 kg, lower than that in April of 3044874 kg; in the first five months of this year, the total import was 17101787 kg. Tin exports from the United States in May were 135056 kg, lower than 176839 kg in April. In the first five months of this year, exports totaled 778178 kg.

Antaike: China’s refined copper, lead and tin production increased in June: Beijing on July 9, Antaike, a research arm of the China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association, said on Thursday that China’s major copper smelters’ cathode copper production in June increased by 0.6% to 699000 tons year-on-year. The output in June increased by 0.9% compared with the revised 693000 tons in May due to the weak impact of overhaul on supply of 22 smelters surveyed. From January to June, China’s cathode copper production fell 0.8% year-on-year to 4.1 million tons. Antaike said production would be limited by tight supply of copper concentrate and low processing costs, despite a reduction in maintenance materials for the project in July. Antaike predicts that the output of cathode copper will be maintained at about 700000 tons in July. China’s refined lead production rose 13.2 per cent in June from a year earlier to 418000 tons, the agency said. China’s refined lead production in July fell by about 3000 tons compared with the previous month due to major overhaul of refineries in Yunnan, Hunan and Jiangxi provinces, it added. Antaike said refined tin output at China’s 18 smelters increased by 5.9% month on month to 12081 tons in June, but it did not provide comparative data.

WBMs: Global tin market supply shortage of 17500 tons from January to may 2020: London news on July 22, the world Bureau of Metal Statistics (WBMs) released a report on Wednesday that the global tin market was short of 17500 tons from January to may 2020. The total reported inventory is 9200 tons lower than the level at the end of 2019. Demand is calculated novel coronavirus pneumonia. The total impact of the national blockade imposed on the new crown pneumonia epidemic is not yet fully reflected in the trade statistics. From January to may 2020, the world’s reported refined tin production decreased by 7700 tons compared with the same period last year. China’s apparent demand increased by 7% over the same period last year. From January to may 2020, the global demand for tin will be 157600 tons, an increase of 5.2% over the same period last year. Japan’s demand is 9500 tons, down 16.7% from January to may 2019. In May 2020, the global refined tin production is 27200 tons and the consumption is 32100 tons.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring data of business agency, the price of domestic soda ash has increased. The average market price in East China is about 1400 yuan / ton, down 17.17% from the same period last year. The commodity index of light soda ash on August 3 was 67.86, up 1.19 points compared with yesterday, 42.42% lower than 117.86 points (2017-11-21), and 7.46% higher than the lowest point of 63.15 points on November 18, 2015. (Note: period refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

2、 Market analysis

According to the business agency, the overall trend of domestic soda ash market has been rising steadily, and the price has fluctuated, with a one-day increase of 6.41% on August 3. Main reasons: the total inventory of No.1 soda ash decreased. In July, the domestic output of soda ash was 2.3097 million tons, with a quarter on month increase of 256600 tons. In July 2020, the overall operating rate of soda ash was 71.85%, with a month on month increase of 5.27%. The initial soda ash inventory was 1.251 million tons, 1.0233 million tons at the end of the month, and the inventory decreased by 226800 tons, or 18.14%. Clearing inventory is good, enterprise quotation increases. Second, the inventory of soda ash in the downstream float glass industry has increased. Recently, the terminal demand of glass spot market has increased steadily, and the orders of processing enterprises have also improved slightly. Production enterprises should take the initiative to pull prices in time to boost market confidence. The speed of purchasing glass by downstream processing enterprises has also improved slightly compared with that of other processing enterprises, so as to be used for later processing. Generally speaking, with the gradual weakening of rainfall and high temperature weather, the traditional sales peak season will come, and the prices of production enterprises will continue to rise slightly. Third, in the spirit of the soda ash industry meeting at the end of July, the price of soda ash was raised in August. Light soda increased by 150 yuan / ton and heavy soda increased by 300 yuan / ton.

3、 Future forecast

Business agency analysts believe that: for soda ash enterprises to adjust prices downstream procurement is not active, preferred procurement. At the level of market mentality, enterprises have a strong mentality of price increase, and some enterprises control delivery or sealing orders. The overall shipment of traders is general, the purchase price has no advantage, the shipment is light, the support of old customers, and the new orders are few. In addition, the price of early order is low and the shipment is smooth. After the price was announced, the market volume was not optimistic, the downstream conflicted, kept a wait-and-see attitude, mainly implemented the early orders, less new orders. However, in fact, the market atmosphere of soda ash enterprises is light, the downstream demand has not improved significantly, and the purchase on demand is the main factor. It is predicted that the price of soda ash in the short term will tend to be rational and maintain stable operation.

1、 Price trend

According to the price monitoring of the business club, the average price of salicylic acid (industrial grade) mainstream manufacturers was 14666.67 yuan / ton on July 31, which was flat compared with the price at the beginning of the month and decreased by 4.35% compared with the beginning of the year. Recently, salicylic acid market is weak and stable.

2、 Market analysis

In July, salicylic acid market continued to be weak and stable. In the off-season, consumption is difficult to boost, the enthusiasm of downstream enterprises’ inquiry is declining, and the uncertainty of the international environment is still increasing. China’s salicylic acid is mainly exported, and the shipping pressure has always existed. The new orders are not high, and the market transaction atmosphere is general. Some salicylic acid manufacturers’ devices are still under full load operation, and the shipment is under pressure, and the price is slightly reduced. As of August 3, the industrial grade price of salicylic acid of Zhenjiang MaoYuan Chemical Co., Ltd. was 15000 yuan / ton, and the price remained stable. The industrial grade price of salicylic acid of Hebei Jingye Chemical Co., Ltd. is 14000 yuan / ton, and the price is stable. The industrial grade price of new hualongxin salicylic acid is about 15000 yuan / ton, and the ex factory price of methyl salicylate is about 23800 yuan / ton, and the price is stable. The industrial grade price of salicylic acid of Yanying chemical is about 12000 yuan / ton, and the price is stable. The industrial grade salicylic acid of Henan Diduo Chemical Co., Ltd. is 14000 yuan / ton. The actual transaction is mainly through negotiation.

Phenol, the domestic phenol Market in July first suppressed and then rose, mainly downward. From the perspective of business agencies, in August, at present, the operating rate of phenol plants in China has reached a high level. At the end of August, Sinopec Mitsui phenol ketone plant will also resume production. Although some ports have delayed arrival, they are expected to arrive in the warehouse to replenish port inventory in the short term. In August, the factory will implement new contracts, but the demand side is difficult to improve greatly, and the overall downturn is expected The market is expected to continue to decline in early August, and the price space in East China is expected to be 5400 yuan / T.

3、 Future forecast

Salicylic acid analysts of the business agency believe that in the off-season demand in July is sluggish, the downstream inquiry fever is declining, there are not many new orders on the floor, and the market transaction atmosphere is general. It is expected that the trend will continue to be weak and stable in the short term, or will be slightly reduced.

1、 Price trend

According to the data from the business club’s bulk list, the price trend of cryolite market this week was stable, with the average price of 5833.33 yuan / ton in Henan during the week, which was flat compared with last weekend and decreased by 7.89% compared with last year. On July 30, cryolite commodity index was 70.85, flat with yesterday, down 30.00% from 101.21 (2011-10-31), and 6.78% higher than 66.35, the lowest point on September 05, 2016. (Note: period refers to 2011-09-01 to now).

2、 Market analysis

The price of domestic cryolite is stable this week. As of the 31st, the ex factory quotation of cryolite in Shandong is about 5000-6800 yuan / ton, while that in Henan is 5300-6000 yuan / ton. The quotation of cryolite manufacturers in Henan Province is mainly stable. The equipment of the enterprises starts normal and the inventory is sufficient. Most of the enterprises sell according to the order. At present, Zhengzhou Tianrui grain Co., Ltd. has about 70% of the plant’s production capacity of 30000 T / A, with more downstream demand and acceptable inventory; Jiaozuo Minli Industrial Co., Ltd. has full plant load, normal start-up and sufficient supply; Zibo Kunyu industry and Trade Co., Ltd. has normal operation of cryolite with an annual production capacity of 40000 tons, with normal inventory and stable sales, and there is no parking plan.

In terms of upstream fluorite, the domestic market average price was 2800 yuan / ton at the weekend, which was stable compared with last weekend. At present, the domestic fluorite manufacturers are operating stably, the inventory is acceptable, the supply of goods is normal, the downstream users mainly purchase on demand, the situation of goods taking is general, and the price trend of fluorite market is weak and stable. In terms of the downstream electrolytic aluminum, the market demand is slightly warmer, and the downstream terminal demand is bullish in the second half of the year. At present, the social inventory of electrolytic aluminum continues to move down. Under the performance of supply and demand, it is expected that it will be stronger in the later period.

3、 Future forecast

Cryolite analysts from the business agency believe that: at present, the supply and demand performance of cryolite market shows that the manufacturers are operating normally, the inventory is sufficient, and the downstream demand is also improved. It is expected that the cryolite market will be sorted up in the later stage, and the specific attention should be paid to the market demand.