On July 27, the price of raw silk was 424000 yuan / ton. In the past three months, the raw silk showed an overall upward trend, rising 29400 yuan / ton, or 7.45% compared with that before March, and 56.75% year on year.

On July 27, the silk commodity index was 131.88, up 0.62 points from yesterday, down 20.28% from 165.42 points (2018-02-21), the highest point in the cycle, and 63.08% higher than the lowest point of 80.87 on May 05, 2020（ Note: period refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to now)

From the five-year price comparison chart, the average price of 18 years is at a high level in five years, but it can be seen that the price of raw silk in 21 years shows a trend of overall growth, and 17.19.21 raw silk price shows an overall upward trend.

In the past period, typhoon fireworks entered the country, which brought a long period of heavy wind, which not only caused fertilizer loss in mulberry garden, but also blew some mulberry strips and broken some mulberry leaves. In order to minimize losses and ensure the normal breeding of autumn silkworm production, the management work after the disaster of sericulture production should be carried out. Especially, the mulberry planting in the field should pay attention to the drainage of ditches, so as to make small communication between big ditches and rivers, so as to make the mulberry garden free of water or less water.

Analysts of business society believe that raw silk prices will continue to run at a high level. Since 2021/7/18, the 30 day average on the 7-day average will start the upward trend, and the current two average lines are up in the same direction. According to 2021/7/25, the probability of change of operation situation (i.e. 30 day average under 7-day average) in the next 7 days is 45.22%.

According to the monitoring sample data of business society, as of July 27, the average price of melamine enterprises was 13300 yuan / ton, up 0.50% compared with the price on July 20, 24.69% compared with the price on June 27, and 15.65% year-on-year in a three-month cycle.

In mid and early July, the melamine market rose steadily, with an increase of 22.53%. Since late July, the melamine market has been mainly stable, and the low-end quotation has increased. The recent export support is stable, but the domestic trade demand is flat. With the melamine price rising to a high level, the resistance in the downstream is increasing, the manufacturers follow up the new orders in general, and the market wait-and-see mood is strong.

Melamine export data from January to June 2021 (unit: kg)

Upstream urea, the urea market in Shandong rose on July 26, up 1.08% compared with the price on July 20. On the whole, the urea cost support is strengthened, the downstream demand is weakened, and the urea supply is tight.

Melamine analyst at the business community believes that the upstream urea price is rising and the cost side has certain support. But with the improvement of the melamine operating rate and the lack of follow-up on domestic trade demand, the melamine high-end price or rational callback is dominated by short-term or stable adjustment.

Orthobenzene market remained stable

According to the data monitoring of business society, the price of orthobenzene this week is 6200 yuan / ton. As of July 26, Sinopec quoted 6200.00 yuan / ton of o-xylene, which was stable compared with 6200 yuan / ton of o-xylene at the beginning of the week. However, the upstream and downstream market of the industrial chain rose and the adjacent benzene Market warmed up.

Raw material prices fell slightly

According to the data detection of business society, the price of mixed xylene fell this week, the price of raw materials in the upstream of orthobenzene fell, the market of the upstream industrial chain of orthobenzene fell, the rising power of orthobenzene market weakened, and the downward pressure still exists.

The downstream market continued to rise

According to the data of business society, the price of phthalic anhydride continued to rise this week, and the market of phthalic anhydride rose. The downstream market of orthobenzene has recovered, the demand for orthobenzene has recovered, the demand for orthobenzene is strong, and the rising power of orthobenzene has increased.

Future forecast

Bai Jiaxin, an ortho xylene data analyst at business society, believes that the mixed xylene in the upstream and downstream of the ortho xylene industrial chain fell this week, the price of phthalic anhydride continued to rise, the rise of the ortho xylene industrial chain slowed down, and the ortho xylene market was temporarily stable this week. The price of phthalic anhydride continued to rise in the future, the driving force for the rise of phthalic anhydride remained, and the market of phthalic anhydride remained stable in the future.

According to statistics, the price trend of domestic ammonium nitrate rose this week. By the end of the week, the market price of domestic ammonium nitrate was 3550 yuan / ton, up 2.01% from 3480 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week and 51.71% year-on-year. On July 23, the ammonium nitrate commodity index was 186.84, unchanged from yesterday, hitting a record high in the cycle, an increase of 141.49% from the lowest point of 77.37 on October 31, 2016（ Note: the period refers to the period from February 1, 2013 to now).

This week, the domestic ammonium nitrate market price hit a record high. The domestic ammonium nitrate manufacturers generally started their units, and the supply of ammonium nitrate in the field was normal. Some manufacturers reported that the upstream coal raw material price was high, the cost increased significantly, and the manufacturer’s price reached a historical high. Recently, the supply of goods in the field was tight, the transportation was normal, and the market price of ammonium nitrate increased slightly. Recently, the shipment market of ammonium nitrate manufacturers is normal, the downstream purchases on demand, the domestic ammonium nitrate manufacturers start normal, and the prices of some manufacturers are at a historical high. Up to now, the mainstream negotiation in Shaanxi is 3500-3600 yuan / ton, the mainstream negotiation in Shandong is 2700-2900 yuan / ton, and the price in Hebei is 4400-4500 yuan / ton.

The price trend of domestic concentrated nitric acid was temporarily stable this week. The price at the weekend was 2450 yuan / ton, which was the same as 2400 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week. Anhui Jinhe quoted 2650 yuan / ton; Shandong helitai offers 2500 yuan / ton. Shaanxi Xinghua offers 2350 yuan / ton. Recently, the domestic maintenance units operate normally, the market supply of concentrated nitric acid is normal, and the delivery of goods in the site is general. The price of nitric acid in the site remains high, and the market price of ammonium nitrate rises.

The price trend of upstream liquid ammonia rose this week. The price at the weekend was 4750 yuan / ton, up 2.89% from 4616.67 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week. As domestic commodities usher in a new round of rising cycle, especially the upstream coal of liquid ammonia, the rise is strong. Good cost support is obvious. In addition, the supply of liquid ammonia continues to be tight. At present, it is still affected by the low operating rate of domestic devices and too many maintenance devices, resulting in an obvious decline in supply, resulting in insufficient supply in the market, superimposed with dealer speculation and other factors, and the price of liquid ammonia rises. In the downstream, the current agricultural fertilizer has increased, the downstream demand is general, and the market price trend of ammonium nitrate has increased slightly.

Recently, the demand of the downstream civil explosive industry is normal, coupled with the normal production and sales of nitro compound fertilizer, the demand for calcium ammonium nitrate has increased, coupled with the continuous rise in the price trend of raw material market, and the coal market price remains high. However, the spot supply of ammonium nitrate in the field is general, and the cost rise has a certain positive impact, Ammonium nitrate analysts of business society believe that the market price of ammonium nitrate may remain high in the later stage.

Spot silver prices fell 3.24% on the day

According to the data of business news agency, the average price of silver market in the morning on July 19 was 5270 yuan / kg, which was 5336.67 yuan / kg higher than that in the spot market on July 16; 24%; Compared with the early average price of 5304.33 yuan / kg in the spot market in early July (July 1), the decrease was 0.65%; Compared with the beginning of the year (01.01), the spot price of silver was 5550 yuan / kg, a decrease of 5.05%.

On July 19, the spot price of gold was 378.01 yuan / g, down 0.64% compared with the spot price on July 16; The average price of the spot market in early July (7.1) was 366.77 yuan / g, up 3.06%; The spot price of gold was 392.70 yuan / g at the beginning of the year (01.01), down 5.05%.

Precious metals have a downward trend

Since late May, the overall trend of precious metal prices has been declining. On the one hand, based on the slowdown of investment demand for precious metals, according to relevant data, the global gold ETF position changed little in June, with a total size of 3624 tons, 285 tons less than the high 3909 tons in October last year. The sharp drop in investment demand is mainly due to changes in the macroeconomic environment, especially the rising trend of global interest rates in the first quarter, and the corresponding game factor – rising inflation expectations and concerns in the market. On the whole, it is difficult to reappear the situation that the price and volume rose together promoted by the early monetary easing policy, and the market gradually entered a rational range. This also means that the influence factor coefficient will start to change, and the influence of physical demand on price will gradually rise. On the other hand, in the process of gradual economic recovery, the demand for silver is expected to support the price of silver, especially the increase of demand for solar panels and electrical applications. Based on the previous surge, silver prices gradually squeeze out investment water, later resilience will be relatively strong.

O-benzene market stable

According to the data monitoring of the business association, the settlement price of o-benzene this week was 6200 yuan / ton, which was stable compared with the settlement price in June. As of July 19, Sinopec’s price of o-xylene was 6200.00 yuan / ton, which was stable compared with the price of o-xylene of 6200 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month. Overall, the market of o-benzene remained stable.

Raw material prices fall

According to the data test of business news agency, the mixed xylene price fluctuated and fell this week, the mixed xylene market fell, the raw material price of the upstream of o-xylene fell, the o-xylene cost stabilized, and the o-xylene rising power weakened.

Lower market rebounds

According to the data test of business association, the price of phthalic anhydride is stable this week, and the market of phthalic anhydride is strong and stable. The downstream market of o-benzene is stable, the demand for o-benzene is strong, and the rising power of o-benzene still exists.

Future forecast

Bai Jiaxin, an o-xylene data analyst of business news agency, believes that the price of o-xylene mixed with xylene fell this week, the rising power of o-xylene weakened, the price of phthalic anhydride remained high and stable, and the rising power of o-xylene remained. The external quotation of o-xylene rose slightly this week, and the support for o-xylene rising was limited. On the whole, there is some support for the rise of o-benzene in the future, but the support is limited. It is expected that the price of o-benzene will be strong and stable in the future.

Trade name: urea

Latest price (July 19): 2780.00 yuan / ton

On July 19, the ex factory quotation of urea in Shandong was temporarily stable, which was the same as that on July 16, with a year-on-year increase of 67.81%. The price of upstream coal and liquefied natural gas has risen slightly recently, and the cost support has been strengthened. In terms of demand, there is a small amount of topdressing in North and East China, but the agricultural demand is general; The downstream compound fertilizer, rubber sheet factory and melamine enterprise started well, and most of them were purchased and used at any time, and followed up at a proper amount. From the aspect of supply: in the near future, the production of urea enterprises has been reduced and resumed alternately, the recovery of start-up is slow, the daily output is about 160000 tons, and the supply side is tight. At the same time, enterprise inventory and social inventory are also maintained at a low position. On the whole, the cost of urea is still supporting, the downstream demand is weakening, and the supply of urea is tight. In the future, more attention should be paid to the printing details.

It is expected that the ex factory price of urea in Shandong will rise slightly in the future: the average price quoted by the manufacturer is about 2800 yuan / ton.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring data of business news agency, the price of caustic soda went up. The average price of Shandong market was 555 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week, and 587.5 yuan / ton at the end of the week. The price increased by 5.86% and 15.76% compared with the same period last year. The commodity index of caustic soda on July 15 was 82.01, up 2.15 points from yesterday, down 60.36% from 206.87 (November 14, 2017), the highest point in the cycle, and up 25.96% from 65.11, the lowest point on October 9, 2020（ Note: period refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to now

2、 Market analysis

The price of caustic soda went up this week. The price of caustic soda in Shandong is rising, and the mainstream ex factory price of 32% caustic soda is 540-670 yuan / ton. Due to the tight supply of caustic soda due to maintenance by manufacturers, the downstream demand is slightly better than before. Now the caustic soda manufacturers adjust their prices according to their own conditions. It is expected that caustic soda will mainly run in the upward market in the future. The price of caustic soda in Hebei Province is on the rise. At present, the mainstream ex factory price of 32% caustic soda is 600-700 yuan / ton. It is expected that caustic soda will run well in the future.

Downstream: due to the demand of downstream alumina for caustic soda inventory, caustic soda manufacturers are mainly active in shipping, and the trading atmosphere is acceptable. There is a good demand for caustic soda. At present, the price of caustic soda is running well.

According to the price monitoring of business association, in the price rise and fall list of chlor alkali industry in the 27th week of 2021 (7.5-7.9), there are 2 kinds of commodities rising, 0 kinds of commodities falling, and 3 kinds of commodities falling to 0. The main commodities rising were caustic soda (0.95%) and PVC (0.14%); The average rise and fall this week was 0.22%.

Business analysts believe that in the near future, the price of caustic soda in Shandong has risen, and the inventory of caustic soda manufacturers has decreased recently, while the demand for downstream alumina is strong. It is expected that caustic soda will run well in the future, and the downstream market demand will be taken into consideration.

In the early trading, the main contract of Shanghai lead 2108 was greatly affected by the inventory pressure after the opening, and it mainly went down after the opening. By the end of the 13th, the settlement price of the main contract of Shanghai lead 2108 was 15735 yuan / ton, down 1.61%.

Affected by the futures market, the quotation range of lead ingot in domestic spot lead market is about 15450-15550 yuan / ton, with an average price of 15500 yuan / ton, down 100 yuan / ton compared with the previous trading day. This week, the domestic social inventory is still rising, and the downstream is in the low and peak season, but the demand is still on demand. Today, there are some bargain hunting enquiries in the spot market, but the whole market remains on the sidelines with limited turnover. In the future, the business community believes that the price of lead will continue to fluctuate in the short term in the market where the downstream demand has not yet improved.

1、 Price trend

The price of pure benzene stopped rising this week and turned to fall. On July 4, the price of pure benzene was 8653-8800 yuan / ton (average price: 8770 yuan / ton). On Sunday (July 11), the price of pure benzene was 8400-8750 yuan / ton (average price: 8630 yuan / ton). Compared with last week, the average price of pure benzene was 140 yuan / ton, down 1.6%; Compared with the same period last year, it increased by 173.97%.

2、 Analysis and comment

Internationally, the international oil price continued to decline this week, while the price of pure benzene in Asia fell. Domestic, this week, East China port inventory continued to decline, pure benzene spot market remains tight supply. Sinopec’s listed price of pure benzene was stable at 8750 yuan / ton within the week, providing certain support to the market. In terms of demand, most of the downstream products are at a loss, and they have strong resistance to high price pure benzene, and the enterprises generally ship.

In terms of external market, the reference price of pure benzene in South Korea market on Friday (July 9) was US $1025 / T, down US $31 / T or 2.94% on July 2; The import reference price of East China was US $1054 / T, down by US $21 / T or 1.94% on July 2.

In terms of crude oil, the OPEC + meeting was cancelled at the beginning of the week, and there was no plan to further increase production for the time being, and international oil prices rose. However, the market is worried that the excessively fast rising oil price will trigger a price war again, and the crude oil market will cool down rapidly. On July 2, Brent fell 0.62 USD / barrel, or 0.81%; WTI fell 0.6 USD / barrel, or 0.8%.

Downstream: styrene: this week, the price of styrene fluctuated. On July 9, the price of sample enterprises was 9500 yuan / ton, up 2.56% from last week and 74.85% from the same period last year. Crude oil recovered, pure benzene dropped slightly, ethylene remained stable, and styrene cost remained unchanged. The restart and maintenance of styrene plant are mutual, but the new production is delayed, and the output increase is less than expected.

Aniline: this week, aniline was weak. Jinling aniline plant is restarted and will be delivered soon; Wanhua chemical’s new aniline plant entered the market, the later supply is expected to increase significantly, and the market is bearish in the later stage. The price in Shandong is 10000-10200 yuan / ton; The price of aniline in Nanjing is 10200-10400 yuan / ton.

3、 Future forecast

In terms of crude oil, pay attention to OPEC +’s latest decision on increasing production, the impact of US crude oil and refined oil inventories, and US dollar exchange rate on oil prices.

Downstream: downstream main product styrene: short-term styrene cost support is strong, supply increment is less than expected, short-term styrene market is still in a strong shock stage.

Short term supply will continue tight pattern, but the downstream market is difficult to break through in the short term, it is expected that the pure benzene market will be frozen next week. Continue to pay attention to the downstream market, profit margin, domestic and foreign trends of pure benzene plant, crude oil, external market and other trends on the price of pure benzene.