According to the data monitored by the business agency, at the beginning of the week, the quotation of domestic industrial grade first-class potassium nitrate was 5300.00 yuan / ton, and at the end of the week, the quotation of domestic industrial grade first-class potassium nitrate was 5440.00 yuan / ton, up 2.64%. The current price increased by 18.78% month on month, and the current price increased by 29.91% year on year.

This week, the domestic potassium nitrate market continued to rise, the potassium nitrate manufacturers led the market rise, the market supply is tight, most of them are concentrated in the hands of large traders, they are reluctant to sell, and the overall market turnover is slow. The overall supply is at a low level, the downstream market purchases on demand, the potassium nitrate market continues to rise, and the price reaches a new high, with some manufacturers reaching 5800 yuan / ton. According to the statistics of the business society: this week, the domestic mainstream manufacturers of potassium nitrate quoted 4800-5800 yuan / ton (the quotation is for reference only), and the quotation varies according to the procurement situation.

Recently, the quotation of potassium chloride mainstream manufacturers fluctuated: on July 9, the potassium chloride equipment of Qinghai Salt Lake Potash Fertilizer Co., Ltd. operated normally. The ex factory quotation is about 2450 yuan / ton, the quotation is temporarily stable, and the actual transaction price is mainly through negotiation. On July 9, Anhui Badou Chemical Co., Ltd. did not offer potassium chloride for the time being. Recent potassium chloride market remains high consolidation, inventory tension, is expected to be high strong later.

Recently, the domestic potash fertilizer market is resuming production, and most of the imported potash sources are concentrated in the hands of traders. The market supply is still tight. It is expected that the potassium nitrate Market will rise mainly in the short term, and the long-term market still needs to wait and see（ The above prices are provided by the main manufacturers of potassium nitrate all over the country and sorted out and analyzed by the potassium carbonate analysts of the business society. They are for reference only. For more price details, please contact the relevant manufacturers for consultation).

In July, affected by seasonal factors, LPG was in the traditional off-season of sales, but the rising market at the beginning of the month continued at the end of June, and the price continued to rise. According to the data monitoring of business society, the average price of LPG in Shandong market was 4326.67 yuan / ton on July 1 and 4426.67 yuan / ton on July 5, with an increase of 2.31% during the period and 6.84% compared with June 1.

As of July 5, the mainstream prices of LPG in various regions of China are as follows:

Specifications type of shipping region Mainstream quotation

Civil gas Motor transport North China 4250-4350 yuan / ton

Civil gas Motor transport East China 4250-4600 yuan / ton

Civil gas Motor transport South China 4420-4550 yuan / ton

Civil gas Motor transport Shandong Province 4350-4400 yuan / ton

Recently, there are many positive factors in the LPG market, and the leading price center has moved up. East China and North China showed the most obvious increase, followed by Shandong, and South China made up for it. In terms of international crude oil, the prices of international crude oil and external crude oil are running at a high level, and the news is favorable to the market mentality. Secondly, the CP price was introduced in July. Propane and butane were increased significantly. The rising import cost brought good support to the market. The mentality of the industry was good. Many manufacturers in the market delivered goods smoothly, and the market transaction atmosphere was mild. At present, the mainstream transaction price in Shandong is 4350-4400 yuan / ton. There is no obvious change in the supply of civil gas in Shandong.

The rise of LPG futures market also brought a certain boost to the spot market. On July 5, the opening price of LPG futures contract 2108 was 4943, the highest price was 4998, the lowest price was 4900, the closing price was 4988, the former settlement price was 4907, the settlement price was 4951, up 81, or 1.65%, the trading volume was 67413, the position was 51899, and the daily increase was 575（ Quotation unit: yuan / ton)

On July 5, international oil prices rose. The US futures market was closed during the Independence Day holiday. The settlement price of the main contract in Brent crude oil futures market was 77.16 US dollars / barrel, up 0.99 US dollars or 1.3%. The negotiations between the organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC +) reached a deadlock again, and the meeting was suddenly called to a halt. As soon as the news came out, oil prices rose sharply.

At present, the market is dominated by favorable factors, the price center is constantly moving up, the price of Shandong civil gas is about to exceed 4500 yuan / ton, the international crude oil continues to rise, the inventory of manufacturers is in a controllable state, and the mentality is relatively strong. However, as prices continue to rise, the resistance of the downstream increases, and the enthusiasm for entering the market has weakened compared with the previous period. LPG is still in the traditional off-season, and the terminal demand is weak, which brings a certain constraint to the market. The possibility of a substantial rise in the later period is limited. It is expected that the price of Shandong civil gas market will be strong in the short term, and there is still a possibility of weakening in the later period.

Recent trend of urea price

As can be seen from the figure above, the ex factory price of urea in Shandong Province rose this week, from 2760.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 2800.00 yuan / ton at the end of the week, with an increase of 1.45%, and a year-on-year increase of 70.39%. Overall, urea market rose this week, with urea commodity index at 130.23 on July 2.

Upstream support strengthened, downstream demand slowed down and supply side was tight

From the manufacturer’s quotation, the mainstream factory price of urea in Shandong rose this week. Urea in Yangmei plain has not been quoted this week; Shandong Ruixing urea quoted 2800 yuan / ton this weekend, up 40 yuan / ton compared with the beginning of the week; Mingshui chemical urea has not been quoted this week.

From the data of upstream and downstream industry chain, the upstream products of urea increased slightly this week as a whole: the price of liquefied natural gas increased slightly, from 3666.67 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 3750.00 yuan / ton at the end of the week, an increase of 2.27%, up 53.48% compared with the same period last year; The price of steam coal dropped slightly, from 995.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 975.00 yuan / ton at the end of the week, down 2.01%, up 69.89% compared with the same period last year. The price of liquid ammonia rose slightly, from 4416.67 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 4433.33 yuan / ton at the end of the week, with an increase of 0.38%, 44.56% over the same period last year. Melamine in the lower reaches of urea rose slightly this week, from 10733.33 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 10800.00 yuan / ton at the end of the week, an increase of 0.62%.

From the aspect of demand, the demand of agriculture in different areas has been cooling down, and the demand of agriculture has been decreasing; However, the price of compound fertilizer in the lower reaches has risen, and the construction of rubber sheet factories and melamine enterprises is acceptable, and most of them are used as soon as they are mined. In terms of supply, the daily output of urea plants is still lower than that of the same period last year, and the supply side is tight. At the same time, the enterprise inventory and social inventory are also kept at a low position. Affected by the shortage of coal, some areas begin to reduce production. On the whole, urea cost support is strengthened, downstream demand is stable, and urea supply is tight.

Agricultural demand decreases and future prices are bearish

In the first ten days of July, the urea market in Shandong may fluctuate slightly and fall mainly. Urea analysts of business news agency believe that at present, the agricultural demand in various regions has declined, the industrial demand has not seen obvious positive, the urea supply is tight, the downstream businesses have a strong wait-and-see atmosphere for high price urea, and the market price mainly fluctuates slightly.

Trade name: monoammonium phosphate

Latest price (June 30): 3016 yuan / ton

Commodity index: the commodity index of ammonium phosphate on June 30 was 93.72, up from yesterday, down 7.06% from the peak of 100.84 (2011-09-13) in the cycle, up 50.94% from the lowest point of 62.09 on September 19, 2017（ Note: period refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to now

Analysis points: according to the monitoring of business society, domestic monoammonium phosphate continued to operate at a high level and the supply decreased. Most enterprises have suspended their quotation and the quantity of orders in the early stage is large. The factory quotation of 55% ammonium powder is 3000-3200 yuan / ton, and 58% of the factory quotation is about 3200 yuan / ton.

Future forecast: due to the rising of raw material price, the demand for goods preparation in autumn increases, and the supply is relatively small, and the price of monoammonium phosphate continues to rise in the short term.