1、 Price data

As of August 29, the mainstream ex factory average price of domestic ground refined hydrogenated naphtha was 6773.25 yuan / ton, up 0.16% from 6762.60 yuan / ton on August 23. The actual transaction price of ground refined hydrogenated naphtha was about 6700-6900 yuan / ton.

As of August 29, the mainstream ex factory average price of domestic ground refined straight run naphtha was 6607.50 yuan / ton, down 0.41% from 6635.00 yuan / ton on August 23. The actual transaction price of ground refined straight run naphtha was about 6400-6700 yuan / ton.

On August 29, the naphtha commodity index was 83.59, unchanged from yesterday, down 18.54% from the highest point of 102.62 in the cycle (September 24, 2012), and up 97.89% from the lowest point of 42.24 on July 19, 2016（ Note: period refers to 2012-09-01 to now)

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

The price of refined naphtha rose slightly this week, the refined naphtha market was weak, and the downstream was mainly purchased on demand.

Upstream: international crude oil rose sharply, mainly due to the decline of crude oil and refined oil inventories in the United States last week according to the data of the American Petroleum Association (API). After superimposing the peak of China’s epidemic, demand continued to recover, boosting market confidence. In addition, the inventory data released by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) on Wednesday showed that crude oil inventories fell for the third consecutive week, Push oil prices to continue to rise.

Downstream: according to the monitoring of the business community, toluene fluctuated and fell this week. The price of toluene was 5682 yuan / ton on August 22 and 5630 yuan / ton on August 29, down 0.71% from last week. Mixed xylene rebounded slightly after falling this week and continued to decline. The price of mixed xylene was 5750 yuan / ton on August 22 and 5730 yuan / ton on August 29, down 0.35% from last week. In the PX market, the domestic PX price remained stable this week, at 7300 yuan / ton.

Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business community, in the list of commodity prices rising and falling in the 34th week of 2021 (8.23-8.27), there are 16 kinds of commodities rising month on month in the energy sector, including 4 kinds of commodities rising by more than 5%, accounting for 25% of the monitored commodities in the sector; The top three commodities were WTI crude oil (8.50%), Brent crude oil (7.67%) and coking coal (6.87%). A total of 0 commodities decreased month on month. The average rise and fall this week was 3.21%.

3、 Future forecast

Energy analysts of business society believe that the recent sharp rise in international crude oil, the weak operation of local refined naphtha market, less market trading, downstream on-demand procurement, strong market wait-and-see mood, and it is expected that the weak consolidation of local refined naphtha in the near future.

From August 20 to August 27, 2021, the market price of antimony ingots in East China was temporarily stable, with the price at 70000 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week and 70000 yuan / ton at the end of the week.

On August 26, the antimony commodity index was 97.45, unchanged from yesterday, down 4.76% from the highest point of 102.32 in the cycle (October 16, 2012), and up 107.43% from the lowest point of 46.98 on December 24, 2015（ Note: the period refers to the period from September 8, 2012 to now).

Price changes of European Strategic small metal antimony from August 20 to 27, 2021 (unit: USD / ton)

The market, August 20, August 27, rose and fell

European small metal antimony, 11475., 11475., 0

This week, the market price of antimony ingots was adjusted at a high level, and the international price was temporarily stable. At present, the manufacturer’s mentality is still strong, and the reluctance to sell has the upper hand. The upstream and downstream game mentality is strong. Affected by the expected tight supply of raw materials of antimony ore, most antimony ingots of domestic mainstream manufacturers are sold in limited quantities. At present, the price of antimony ingots is still at a relatively high level in history. At present, the downstream has a strong fear of heights, mainly on the whole, and the downstream purchases on demand.

As of August 27, the market price in Hunan is: 2# antimony ingot 68500 yuan / ton, 1# antimony ingot 70500 yuan / ton, 0# antimony ingot 71500 yuan / ton, which is the same as last week.

The current round of price rise is mainly boosted by the shortage of raw materials, but the recent downstream demand performance is poor, and the market wait-and-see mood is heavy. It is expected that the price of antimony ingot will maintain a volatile trend in the short term.

Domestic price trend:

It can be seen from the p-xylene trend chart that the market price trend of p-xylene this week is temporarily stable. By the end of the week, the ex factory price of domestic p-xylene was 7300 yuan / ton, which was the same as that at the beginning of the week, with a year-on-year increase of 58.7%. The price trend of domestic PX market this week is stable.

Recently, the domestic p-xylene supply is normal, the domestic PX operating rate is more than 60%, the 600000 ton unit of Sinochem Hongrun Petrochemical operates stably, the unit of Yangzi Petrochemical operates stably, the unit of Pengzhou Petrochemical operates stably, the PX unit of Yangzi Petrochemical operates normally, the unit of Jinling Petrochemical operates stably, the unit of Qingdao Lidong operates at full load, and the unit of Qilu Petrochemical operates stably, About 50% of Urumqi petrochemical units have been started, and the domestic p-xylene supply is general, but some overseas units are still under maintenance, and the domestic p-xylene price trend is stable. Recently, the closing price of international crude oil continued to decline, and the trend of PX external price declined. As of the 19th, the closing prices in Asia were US $865-867 / T FOB Korea and US $883-885 / T CFR China. Recently, the operating rate of PX units in Asia has not changed much. On the whole, the operating rate of p-xylene installation in Asia is more than 60%, the supply of PX goods in Asia is general, and the closing price of PX external price fell, The domestic p-xylene market price trend is temporarily stable.

Crude oil prices fell sharply this week. The settlement price of main contracts in WTI crude oil futures market in the United States was $63.50/barrel, and the settlement price of main contracts in Brent crude oil futures market was $66.45/barrel. Oil prices fell for six consecutive trading days, hitting a low since May. On the one hand, the strength of the US dollar pulled down the oil price valuation, and more importantly, it was the negative impact of cooling demand expectations, The superposition of the increase in production in oil producing countries and the end of the peak driving season in the United States has exacerbated market concerns. In addition, the spread of delta virus has made crude oil demand worrying. Crude oil prices fell this week, which was bad for the price of domestic petrochemical products, and the price trend of p-xylene was temporarily stable.

The downstream PTA market price trend declined this week. As of the 20th, the average PTA market price was 5000-5050 yuan / ton, down 5.87% this week. International crude oil prices fell sharply and lost some cost support. Recently, some PTA units have been restarted and the supply has increased slightly. At the same time, due to the weakening of terminal weaving orders and the continuous deterioration of profit level, the production reduction and shutdown plans of downstream polyester units have increased recently. According to market news, the four major polyester plants plan to start to reduce production by 20%. It is expected that the commencement of polyester units will further decline, the demand for PTA will weaken, and the destocking speed will slow down. On the whole, in the downstream, the opening probability of most weaving factories has decreased recently, and the inventory production mentality is cautious. At the same time, due to the lack of new orders in the market, after the original orders are gradually completed, the factories mainly return funds, and the startup rate may maintain a downward trend. Recently, the domestic PTA market price has declined due to the influence of crude oil, and the downstream market has fallen, The market price trend of p-xylene is mainly stable.

Chen Ling, PX analyst of business society, believes that the current cost performance is weak, the short-term crude oil price trend remains weak, and the downstream PTA and textile market trend falls. It is expected that the market price of p-xylene may fall slightly in the later stage.

1. Price trend

According to the price monitoring of the business community, on August 20, the average price of salicylic acid (industrial grade) mainstream manufacturers was 14666.67 yuan / ton, flat compared with the beginning of the week and the beginning of the month, with a price increase of 2.33% compared with the same period last year.

2、 Market analysis

The salicylic acid market has been running steadily for the time being this week. The enterprise has basically maintained the early quotation and has not adjusted the price yet. The enterprise determines the production according to the sales, and the supply and demand is roughly balanced. In addition, the raw material phenol has a small rise and the supporting force is OK. The salicylic acid market is running firmly. By the end of the weekend, the quotation of industrial salicylic acid enterprises was mostly in the range of 12000-15500 yuan / ton, the quotation of pharmaceutical grade was mostly in the range of 23000-26000 yuan / ton, and the quotation of sublimation grade was mostly in the range of 17200-20000 yuan / ton. There was little change in Salicylic acid at all levels.

In terms of raw materials, on August 19, the reference price of phenol was 9040.00, a decrease of 3.83% compared with August 1 (9400.00). From the perspective of business society, with the support of cost and supply, the cargo holders also have the intention to push up. They will pay close attention to the arrival of port shipping schedule next week. The business community expects that the market may maintain a strong price state.

3、 Future forecast

The salicylic acid analyst of business agency believes that at present, the raw material price is small, the cost support is good, the downstream demand is relatively stable, the enterprise determines the production by sales, and there is no inventory pressure. It is expected that the salicylic acid market will continue to be stable in the short term.

Recent price trend of sulfuric acid

As can be seen from the above figure, the market price of sulfuric acid in Shandong this week was temporarily stable, with the quotation of 775.00 yuan / ton, an increase of 81.29% year-on-year compared with the same period last year. Overall, the sulfuric acid market was temporarily stable this week, and the sulfuric acid commodity index was 120.62 on August 20.

The downstream market was boosted and the willingness to purchase was strengthened

From the manufacturer’s quotation, the price of mainstream sulfuric acid manufacturers in Shandong this week is temporarily stable, the manufacturer’s inventory is general, and the downstream demand is good. The quotation of Heze Jiangyuan sulfuric acid at the weekend is 830 yuan / ton, which is temporarily stable compared with that at the beginning of the week; Zouping Tianlu quoted 720 yuan / ton this weekend, which was temporarily stable compared with that at the beginning of the week; Changzhou Qinghong offers 1050 yuan / ton at the weekend, which is temporarily stable compared with the beginning of the week.

From the upstream and downstream industrial chain, the upstream sulfur market has increased slightly recently. The quotation increased from 1686.67 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 1756.67 yuan / ton at the end of the week, an increase of 4.15%, a year-on-year increase of 133.19% compared with the same period last year, and the cost support is good. The downstream bromine market fell slightly, and the quotation fell from 43062.50 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 42750.00 yuan / ton at the end of the week, down 0.73%, up 50.59% year-on-year compared with the same period last year. The downstream formic acid market rose slightly. The quotation increased from 3366.67 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 3400.00 yuan / ton at the end of the week, an increase of 0.99%, a year-on-year increase of 99.22% compared with the same period last year. On the whole, the upstream and downstream products had a positive impact on the price of sulfuric acid this week.

Market outlook rose slightly

In late August, the sulfuric acid Market in Shandong Province mainly rose slightly. The upstream sulfur price has increased slightly recently, and the cost support is good. Although the downstream bromine market began to decline slightly, the downstream formic acid market has increased, the downstream enthusiasm for purchasing sulfuric acid has been strengthened, and the product trend is upward under the contradiction between supply and demand. Sulfuric acid analysts of business society believe that under the influence of supply and demand and raw materials in Shandong market in the short term, the sulfuric acid market may rise slightly.

Since mid August, the domestic PTA spot market has shown a slight weakening trend. As of August 23, the average market price was 4965 yuan / ton, down 6.86% from August 15 and up 38.82% year-on-year.

In terms of units, Helen petrochemical 2#1.2 million tons and Ningbo Taihua 1.2 million tons PTA units were restarted, 30% of Yisheng new materials were started, the operating rate of PTA industry increased to more than 78%, and the supply was relatively sufficient.

In the crude oil market, as the epidemic situation increased the panic expectation of the market, the crude oil price fell to a low point in recent three months, weakening the support for PTA cost. As of August 20, the settlement price of the main contract in the U.S. WTI crude oil futures market was reported as USD 62.32/barrel, and the settlement price of the main contract in Brent crude oil futures market was reported as USD 65.18/barrel.

In terms of demand, some polyester units were restarted, and the operating rate increased slightly to around 83%, but overall, the production and sales of polyester were poor, and the increase of polyester load may be limited. In addition, the start of terminal weaving has weakened and the overall demand has declined.

Business analysts believe that the cost side oil price is weak, weakening the support for PTA. In terms of supply, the 3.3 million tons of Yisheng new material is planned to increase to 60% in the near future. There is a possibility of a slight increase at the PTA supply end, the downstream demand performance is poor, and the negative factors at both ends of supply and demand appear. It is expected that the PTA price will remain weak in the later period.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring data of business agency, the average market price at the beginning of the week was about 1055 yuan / ton, and the average market price at the weekend was about 1040 yuan / ton. The price fell by 1.42% and increased by 85.88% year-on-year. On August 19, the commodity index of thermal coal was 124.70, down 1.2 points from yesterday, down 5.69% from 132.23 points (2021-08-09), and up 178.97% from 44.70 points, the lowest point on January 20, 2016（ Note: period refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to now)

In terms of origin: the power coal supply in the origin has increased, and the overall supply has improved compared with the previous period, but there is still no significant increase in the output of some coal mines. According to the data released by the National Bureau of statistics, 314.17 million tons of raw coal were produced in July, a year-on-year decrease of 3.3%, and 226.187 million tons of raw coal were produced from January to July, a year-on-year increase of 4.9%. Downstream power plants: for downstream power plants, with the end of peak summer, the demand of power plants fell seasonally. At present, the daily consumption of the power plant has little change. Although the daily consumption of the power plant has decreased at this stage, it still focuses on just needed procurement. Comprehensive.

According to the data released by the General Administration of customs, China exported 80000 tons of coal in July 2021, down 84% year-on-year and 46.67% month on month. From January to July 2021, China exported 1.34 million tons of coal, a year-on-year decrease of 40.1%.

Business analysts believe that at this stage, however, the “peak summer” is coming to an end, and there is a downward trend in coal demand. However, it still focuses on just needed procurement. It is comprehensively expected that the price of thermal coal in the later stage will mainly be adjusted and operated, depending on the downstream market demand.

The cost of corn ethanol changed little, the cost of cassava ethanol decreased, and the corn ethanol market recovered slowly. According to the sample data monitored by the business society, from August 6 to August 13, the domestic ethanol market price rose from 6682 yuan / ton to 6720 yuan / ton, with a price increase of 0.56% during the week, a month on month decrease of 2.43% and a year-on-year increase of 8.83%.

The operating rate of major ethanol producing enterprises in Northeast China and East China is generally low. In some areas, due to the increase of demand, the ethanol market rose in a narrow range, coupled with the Limited Logistics and transportation, resulting in a short-term shortage of supply. Demand for liquor from the downstream is improving, and demand for Baijiu is still weak. The ethanol market in various regions fluctuated and recovered slowly.

In terms of raw materials, the price of domestic corn market in some areas strengthened slightly; The price of molasses is weak. Downstream, the domestic ethyl acetate market fell first and then hit the bottom, rebounded slightly, with the release of demand, the sustainability power is insufficient, and the market rise is very limited.

Latest price dynamics of ethanol market in various regions:

Region, category, price

Shandong region General level 6580 yuan / ton

Shandong region Superior corn 6750-7200 yuan / ton

Shandong region Corn anhydrous 7300 yuan / ton

Southern Jiangsu General level 6700-6800 yuan / ton

Northern Jiangsu General level 6500 yuan / ton

Anhui region Cassava general About 6600-6650 yuan / ton

Anhui region anhydrous About 7400 yuan / ton

Henan region Superior 6830-6850 yuan / ton, tax included

Henan region Absolute ethanol 7400-7650 yuan / ton, tax included

Hebei region General level 6700-6800 yuan / ton

Hebei region anhydrous 7250 yuan / ton

Heilongjiang Region Corn alcohol general grade 6200 yuan / ton, tax included

Jilin Region Ordinary alcohol 6300 yuan / ton, tax included

Guangxi region Honey alcohol 7250-7300 yuan / ton

Guangxi region 95% alcohol 6800-7150 yuan / ton

Guangxi region Absolute ethanol 7550-7750 yuan / ton

Guangdong region Cassava alcohol About 7000 yuan / ton

Guangdong region 95% ethanol About 6850-7050 yuan / ton

Guangdong region Anhydrous cassava ethanol About 7650-7850 yuan / ton

Sichuan region Corn alcohol About 7400 yuan / ton, including tax

Yunnan region Molasses alcohol 7100-7150 yuan / ton

The price of raw corn fluctuated. With the upcoming listing of new grain, middlemen actively sold it. The ethanol analyst of business society expects that in the short term, the domestic ethanol market is still likely to strengthen slightly.

According to the bulk list data of business society, as of August 13, the average quotation price of epichlorohydrin enterprises was 14200 yuan / ton, down 0.23% compared with the price at the beginning of the week, up 0.95% compared with the price on July 13, and up 3.40% year-on-year in a three-month cycle.

At the beginning of this week, the on-site spot supply was tight, which supported the manufacturer’s mentality, and the price rose. With the centralized replenishment of the downstream, the market trading rhythm slowed down. In addition, affected by the news of the restart of some parking devices, the downstream procurement mentality was cautious, the enthusiasm for inquiry weakened, the market transaction was general, and the focus of negotiation weakened.

Upstream propylene, according to the bulk list data of business society, as of August 12, the reference price of propylene was 7723.09, an increase of 0.95% compared with Monday’s price. Downstream procurement enthusiasm has been improved, and the market trading atmosphere is acceptable.

For downstream epoxy resin, as of August 11, the liquid epoxy resin Market in East China has been stable and down, the negotiation range is 32500-33500 yuan / ton, and the raw material bisphenol A has stopped rising steadily. The transaction is not optimistic, the cost support is weakened, and the activity in the field is down. It is expected that the mainstream negotiation offer in the local market in the short term is 32500 yuan / ton.

The epichlorohydrin analysts of business society believe that, in general, there is some support on the cost side and supply side in the near future, but the demand side is not followed up enough. It is expected that in the short term, the epichlorohydrin market may be dominated by stalemate and consolidation, and more attention should be paid to the market supply and demand.

1、 Price trend

According to the bulk list data of business society, pure benzene rebounded slightly after falling this week. On August 8, the price of pure benzene was 7450-7700 yuan / ton (average price 7610 yuan / ton), and on Sunday (August 15), the price of pure benzene was 7450-7600 yuan / ton (average price 7540 yuan / ton). The average price was 70 yuan / ton lower than last week, down 0.92%; Compared with the same period last year, it increased by 119.19%.

2、 Analysis and review

In the early stage of this week, due to the significant increase of pure benzene port inventory and the decline of styrene, the market mentality was suppressed, and the price continued to decline last week; Styrene rebounded in the second half of the week, driving the slight recovery of pure benzene. The epidemic spread, Limited Logistics in many places, limited shipment of enterprises, and affected demand at the same time. This week, Sinopec cut the listing price of pure benzene by 150 yuan / ton.

In terms of external market, the reference price of pure benzene in the Korean market on Friday (August 13) was US $979 / ton, which was flat compared with last week on August 6; The reference import price in East China was US $990 / T, down US $6 / T or 0.6% month on month on August 6.

In terms of crude oil, the spread of delta virus has dragged down the market mentality, and the market is worried that the growth of demand will be restrained. However, the decline in U.S. crude oil and gasoline inventories led to a rebound in oil prices. It is reported that the number of active oil rigs in the United States this week increased by 10 compared with last week and 225 compared with the same period last year. On August 6, Brent fell by US $0.11/barrel, or 0.16%; WTI rose US $0.16/barrel, or 0.23%.

Downstream: styrene: styrene fell first and then rose this week. On August 13, the price of sample enterprises was 9000 yuan / ton, which was flat compared with last week and increased by 71.43% compared with the same period last year. This week, the average operation of domestic styrene plants was 76.31%, down 1.5% from last week. On the whole, in the case of cash flow loss, the output reduction of styrene unit in August was higher than that in July, but the fundamentals of domestic styrene market were still weak, and the cost support was weaker than that in the early stage.

Aniline: Jiangsu Yangnong started shipping within the week, and another 100000 t / a unit of Nanhua was restarted. However, due to the impact of the epidemic, the shipment of enterprises was blocked, and the increment of market outward release changed little. The cost trend gradually stabilized, and the downstream demand was stable as a whole. The price of aniline was stabilized and consolidated this week. On August 13, the price of aniline in Shandong was 10400-10600 yuan / ton and that in Nanjing was 10600-10700 yuan / ton, which was stable compared with last week.

3、 Future forecast

In terms of crude oil, the global spread of mutated virus and the increase of crude oil production have pressured the oil price, and the short-term trend of oil price is weak. In the future, we will continue to pay attention to the impact of the epidemic situation, OPEC + decisions on crude oil production, the inventory dynamics of crude oil and refined oil in the United States, and the global economic situation on crude oil prices.

Downstream: the price of pure benzene went down, and the profit space of downstream products rebounded. Downstream main product styrene: under the influence of the global epidemic, the prospect of crude oil demand is under pressure. Although pure benzene has support, the profit point of styrene has been opened, and pure benzene can no longer guide the trend of styrene. The maintenance plan of styrene unit began to be implemented gradually in August, and the inventory fell slightly. The downstream will gradually transition to the peak season, and there is a new unit production plan. With the operating rate rising gradually, The demand for styrene will also increase slightly. It is expected that the short-term trend of styrene will rebound.

The trend of cost is full of uncertainty, which is difficult to support pure benzene; The downstream profit space expanded and the demand for pure benzene rebounded. It is expected that the price of pure benzene will stabilize next week, but the rebound lacks strong support. Continue to pay attention to the downstream market, the dynamics of domestic pure benzene units, and the impact of crude oil, external market and other trends on the price of pure benzene.