Recent price trend of isooctanol

As can be seen from the above figure, the ex factory price of isooctanol in Shandong fell this week. This week, the average ex factory quotation price of isooctanol in Shandong fell from 17900.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 17500 yuan / ton at the end of the week, a decrease of 2.23%, a year-on-year increase of 145.90% compared with the same period last year. Overall, the isooctanol market fell this week, and the isooctanol commodity index was 128.68 on August 13.

Downstream demand weakened and isooctanol fell again

From the perspective of manufacturer’s quotation, the ex factory quotation of mainstream manufacturers of isooctanol in Shandong fell this week: Jianlan chemical quoted 17500 yuan / ton of isooctanol this weekend, down 400 yuan / ton compared with the beginning of the week; Lihuayi offered 17000 yuan / ton of isooctanol this weekend, down 800 yuan / ton compared with the beginning of the week; Hualu Hengsheng offered 18000 yuan / ton of isooctanol this weekend, which was temporarily stable compared with that at the beginning of the week.

From the upstream and downstream industrial chain, the propylene market in the upstream raw material market of isooctanol increased slightly this week. The quotation increased from 7650.36 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 7750.36 yuan / ton at the end of the week, an increase of 1.31%, an increase of 10.15% over the same period last year. The market price of upstream raw materials rose slightly, which had a positive impact on the price of isooctanol due to the impact of supply and demand.

In the downstream market of isooctanol, the ex factory price of DOP fell slightly this week. DOP quotation decreased from 15500.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 14825.00 yuan / ton at the end of the week, a decrease of 4.35%, an increase of 111.79% over the same period last year. Downstream DOP prices fell slightly, downstream customers’ enthusiasm for octanol procurement weakened, and the demand for isooctanol weakened.

Weak demand and bearish outlook

In the middle and late August, the market trend of Shandong isooctanol may fluctuate slightly. On the whole, recently, isooctanol units have been started successively, the overall operating rate of the isooctanol industry has increased, the downstream market is general, and the demand has weakened. Therefore, the isooctanol analysts of business society believe that the domestic isooctanol market may fluctuate slightly in the middle and late August.

DOP prices want to rise after falling sharply

According to the data monitoring of business society, after the DOP price hit a record high in August, the DOP price continued to weaken. With the decline of octanol price, the DOP price fell. The PVC market slowly warmed up in August, stimulating the recovery of DOP market. On August 13, the DOP price stopped falling and rebounded. As of August 13, the DOP price was 14825.00 yuan / ton, down 5.72% from 15725.00 yuan / ton on August 4; Compared with the DOP price of 14650.00 yuan / ton on August 12, it increased by 1.19%.

Raw material prices weakened and fell

As can be seen from the isooctanol price trend chart, the isooctanol market fell sharply in August. This week, the isooctanol price fell by 6.3%, the cost fell and the DOP price fell. The price of octanol continued to fall this week, the downward pressure on DOP increased, and the price of DOP fell.

The downstream market stopped falling and picked up

It can be seen from the PVC price trend chart that PVC fell first and then rose in August. This week, the PVC market warmed up, DOP purchasing enthusiasm increased, DOP downward pressure weakened and the upward momentum increased.

Market overview and future expectations

Bai Jiaxin, a DOP data analyst at business agency, believes that the price of octanol, a DOP raw material, fell sharply this week, and DOP prices followed suit; The PVC market recovered, the purchasing enthusiasm of DOP downstream rose, and the upward momentum of DOP still exists. Centralized procurement appeared at the weekend, the price of octanol stabilized, and the rise of PVC price stimulated the rebound of DOP price; At the same time, Fujian Chunda and Dongying yimeide units shut down, DOP supply decreased, DOP downward pressure weakened and upward momentum increased. In the future, DOP is mixed, and DOP prices are expected to stabilize in the future.

According to the sample data monitored by the business agency, as of August 9, the average price of domestic BDO producers was 28750 yuan / ton, with a month on month increase of 51.12% and a year-on-year increase of 250.61%. In terms of market price, the mainstream negotiation of spot apron in East China is 29000-30000 yuan / ton, and the mainstream negotiation of spot apron in South China is 29000-30500 yuan / ton.

On the supply side, the extension of oil and the suspension of new business bidding have exacerbated the wait-and-see mood of operators. The resistance of major downstream households to high prices increased, and the cost transmission of some downstream industries such as PBT was blocked, so they were forced to reduce negative production. However, under the tight supply, some just need to follow up, and the focus of negotiation continues to rise.

In terms of devices, lanshantun river was overhauled for one month on July 25; Xinjiang Meike phase II was overhauled from July 8 to August 10; Xinjiang Xinye stopped for maintenance for 20 days on July 25; Dongyuan replaced the catalyst on August 4, which is expected to take 7-10 days; Chongqing Jianfeng plans to replace the catalyst on August 9.

Some units are undergoing maintenance or catalyst replacement, and the transportation in some regions is limited. The supply of goods in the market continues to be tight, and the manufacturer’s spot offer is high-end. However, with the passage of time, the mentality of chasing up in the downstream returns to calm, and the tension between supply and demand is expected to be broken. BDO analysts of business agency expect that the domestic BDO market will run strongly.

From August 2 to August 6, 2021, the market price of antimony ingots in East China continued to rise. The price was 66500 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week and 69000 yuan / ton at the end of the week, with a weekly increase of 3.76%.

On August 7, the antimony commodity index was 96.06, the same as yesterday, down 6.12% from the highest point of 102.32 in the cycle (October 16, 2012), and up 104.47% from the lowest point of 46.98 on December 24, 2015（ Note: the period refers to the period from September 8, 2012 to now).

This week, the market price of antimony ingots continued to operate steadily upward. The market price has been rising all the way. The manufacturers have a strong mentality of raising prices and are reluctant to sell. At present, most antimony ingots of domestic mainstream manufacturers are sold in limited quantities. Driven by the tight expectation of raw antimony ore, the rising intention of enterprises is high.

According to the price monitoring of the business community, in the list of commodity prices rising and falling in the 31st week of 2021 (8.2-8.6), there are four kinds of commodities rising month on month in the non-ferrous sector, including one kind of commodity rising by more than 5%, accounting for 4.5% of the monitored commodities in the sector; The top three commodities were metal silicon (8.38%), antimony (3.76%) and aluminum (0.52%). A total of 14 commodities fell month on month, and the top three products were copper (- 2.76%), lead (- 1.68%) and praseodymium neodymium alloy (- 1.60%). The average rise and fall this week was – 0.07%. Nonferrous market prices fell more or rose less this week.

As of August 6, the domestic market 2# antimony ingot was 68000 yuan / ton, 1# antimony ingot 70000 yuan / ton and 0# antimony ingot 71500 yuan / ton.

The business agency believes that the price of antimony ingots has continued to rise since July, mainly due to the tight supply of raw materials. At present, the manufacturers have a strong price support psychology, and it is expected that the price of antimony ingots will still have room to rise in the short term.

1、 Price trend

According to the data of business agency, on August 6, the average p value of diethylene glycol market price was 6000 yuan / ton, down 126.67 yuan / ton from last week, a decrease of 2.07%.

The price of glycol decreased slightly on Tuesday. The ex factory quotation of Sinopec in East China was reduced by 200 yuan / ton, and the ex factory quotation of Sinopec in South China was reduced by 100 yuan / ton.

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

As of August 6, the total inventory of diethylene glycol in the main port of East China was 1626 tons, a decrease of 444 tons or 21.45% compared with last Monday.

Sinopec South China unit operates smoothly. At present, the diethylene glycol production line of PetroChina northwest duzishan Petrochemical operates stably, with a production capacity of 60000 tons / year. It is mainly supplied to users in Xinjiang, and the export volume is small.

3、 Analysis and prediction

The increment of market supply side is limited, and the demand is still depressed. Wharf inventory remains unchanged, and market participants are cautious and conservative. In the near future, the crude oil price continues to decline, and the short-term diethylene glycol market is expected to be weak and operate in a narrow range.

According to statistics, the price trend of domestic fluorite decreased slightly in July. By the end of the month, the average price of domestic fluorite was 2611.11 yuan / ton, down 1.05% and 6.75% year-on-year compared with 2638.89 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month.

In July, the price trend of fluorite decreased slightly. Recently, the manufacturer reported that the order situation of fluorite was general, the shipment of merchants in the venue was normal, the supply of fluorite in the venue was relatively normal, and the price trend in the venue decreased slightly. The operation of domestic fluorite manufacturers is stable, the operation of mines and flotation units in the site is normal, the delivery of goods in the fluorite site is general, and the market price of fluorite changes little. In July, the downstream hydrofluoric acid market price trend was temporarily stable, and the downstream of the terminal was mainly purchased on demand. By the end of the month, the price of 97 fluorite wet powder in Inner Mongolia was 2400-2500 yuan / ton, the mainstream of 97 fluorite wet powder negotiation in Fujian was 2500-2600 yuan / ton, the price of 97 fluorite wet powder in Henan was 2500-2600 yuan / ton, and the price of 97 fluorite wet powder in Jiangxi was 2400-2600 yuan / ton, Recently, the price trend of domestic fluorite is relatively stable.

The market price of hydrofluoric acid in the downstream of fluorite is stable. As of the end of the month, the domestic market price of hydrofluoric acid is 10020 yuan / ton. The market price trend of hydrofluoric acid is temporarily stable, which has a certain negative impact on the upstream fluorite market, and the price trend of fluorite has little change. In July, the price trend of domestic downstream refrigerant products fell, the operating rate of the refrigerant industry in the field was not high, the sales of the automobile industry fell recently, the refrigerant market trend fell, the demand was mainly based on demand, and the price of the refrigerant industry decreased slightly. However, the manufacturers were under pressure to ship, the sales pressure was high, the operation of the refrigerant industry was low, and the market demand for hydrofluoric acid was limited. On the whole, the refrigerant market is dominated by negative factors, and the price trend of hydrofluoric acid and chloroform is stable, resulting in pressure on the refrigerant industry. At present, the load of refrigerant R22 manufacturer is not high, the inventory is within a reasonable range, and the market price trend drops slightly, but the downstream receiving capacity is limited, there is a lot of wait-and-see mood, the shipment of cargo carriers is normal, some merchants still have cost inversion, and the mainstream of on-site negotiation is 16000-16300 yuan / ton. Domestic R134a manufacturers operate at low load, and the price trend of R134a is declining. However, at present, the procurement is mainly on demand, the operation of downstream enterprises is not high, and traders are in a strong wait-and-see mood. At present, the market quotation of refrigerant R134a is mostly in the range of 20000-21000 yuan / ton, but the transaction atmosphere is general, the market trend of downstream refrigerant is declining, and the price trend of fluorite is declining slightly.

On the whole, the market of the downstream refrigerant industry has decreased slightly, but the recent hydrofluoric acid market supply is normal, the hydrofluoric acid market price in the North has increased slightly, and the fluorite supply is normal. Chen Ling, an analyst of the business society, believes that the fluorite market price may be stable in the short term.

1、 Price trend

According to the data monitored by the business agency (the average ex factory price of carbide SG5), the average price of domestic PVC mainstream was 9137.5 yuan / ton on July 30, an increase of 137.5 yuan compared with 9000 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month, an increase of 1.53% within the month, an increase of 41.12% compared with the same period last year.

2、 Market analysis

In July, the PVC market leveled first and then rose. In the second half of the month, the price rose vigorously and continued to maintain a high operating state. In the first half of July, the PVC market generally operated steadily, the price fluctuation range was less than 1%, and there was little adjustment. The futures price tried to rebound for many times, but stopped at 9000. The boost to the spot market was limited. In the second half of the month, the PVC futures rose strongly, broke through the barrier, driving the spot market to rise slightly. In addition, due to the influence of the limited power policy of raw calcium carbide, As a result of the tight supply of goods, the price rose to more than 5000 yuan / ton, the cost support was strong, and PVC went up. At the same time, due to the impact of tight raw materials and high prices, some PVC enterprises have reduced their operating load and device maintenance, the market supply has decreased, the supply side is good, and PVC has increased. Near the end of the month, the off-season factors and high price transactions were negative, and the PVC price decreased slightly, but it still showed an upward trend in the whole month.

In terms of spot, at present, the mainstream quotation range of pvc5 electric stone in China is mostly around 9100-9300 yuan / ton. The interval of pvc5 electric stone in Hangzhou is 9100-9200 yuan / ton; The mainstream of pvc5 electric stone in Changzhou is 9100-9250 yuan / ton; The mainstream price of PVC ordinary electric stone in Guangzhou is 9200-9280 yuan / ton; Local markets adjusted slightly.

In terms of futures, the price of PVC futures rose in July, rising to around 9300, driving the price trend of the spot market. On August 2, the opening price of v2109 contract: 9105, the highest price: 9110, the lowest price: 8895, the position: 332553, the settlement price: 8975, yesterday’s settlement: 9185, down: 210.

region technology 7 / 29 (yuan / ton) 7 / 1 (yuan / ton) Rise and fall remarks

East China Calcium carbide method 9220-9320 9030-9010 + 190/+310 Ex warehouse

south China Calcium carbide method 9250-9320 9080-9150 + 170/+170 Ex warehouse

North China Calcium carbide method 9050-9130 8930-9010 + 120/+120 Delivered

southwest Calcium carbide method 9050-9150 8950-9100 + 100/+50 Delivered

International crude oil, on July 30, the international oil price closed up. The settlement price of the main contract in the US WTI crude oil futures market was US $73.95/barrel, up US $0.33 or 0.5%, and the settlement price of the main contract in Brent crude oil futures market was US $75.41/barrel, up us $0.31 or 0.4%.

Ethylene, July 30, European ethylene market quotation, FD northwest Europe quotation of US $1309-1319 / ton, CIF northwest Europe quotation of US $1214-1218 / ton, July 30, American ethylene market, FD American Gulf quotation of US $1045-1062 / ton, recent American ethylene market quotation is stable, demand is general, July 30, Asian ethylene market quotation, CFR Northeast Asia quotation of US $1001-1011 / ton, CFR Southeast Asia quotation is USD 1001-1011 / ton. Recently, ethylene prices in Asia are mainly stable.. Affected by the rising price of upstream crude oil, the ethylene market may mainly rise in the later stage.

On July 30, the reference price of calcium carbide was 5133.33, up 11.59% compared with July 1 (4600.00). The price of blue carbon in the upstream increased slightly, the cost support was good, the PVC market in the downstream was consolidated at a high level, and the demand for calcium carbide increased. In the future, calcium carbide rose slightly, and a new round of power rationing in Inner Mongolia began. The output of calcium carbide decreased and the supply was in short supply.

3、 Future forecast

PVC analysts of business society believe that the current off-season is out, the downstream demand is limited, the atmosphere of high price transaction is general, and the offer of goods holders is loose, but the raw material calcium carbide is operating at a high level, and the cost support is still in place. Therefore, it is expected that the short-term PVC market will be generally stable with small fluctuations.

According to the monitoring of business society, the price trend of domestic industrial boric acid showed an increase in July. As of the end of the month, the market price of boric acid was 6512.50 yuan / ton, an increase of 1879.50 yuan / ton compared with 4633 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month, a year-on-year increase of 40.56%.

Boric acid prices continued to rise this week. At present, the price of raw materials is high, the cost is under pressure, and the spot market in some regions is out of stock. The price of imported boric acid has been rising all the way this month, with a trend of breaking through 10000 yuan. Domestic boric acid plants need to queue up to make an appointment.

According to the data monitoring of the business agency, the price of boric acid in some enterprises in the near future (for reference only, the actual transaction prices of different brands, different specifications and products are mainly negotiated)

Boric acid analysts of business society believe that the recent boric acid price continues to rise after high consolidation due to the influence of comprehensive factors at home and abroad. More attention should be paid to the guidance of market news.