According to the monitoring of business society, the domestic polysilicon market continued to rise this week (9.6-9.10). As of September 10, the polysilicon price rose by 1.70%. At present, the price range of polysilicon material is 107000-138000 yuan / ton, and the single crystal material has exceeded 210000 yuan.

It can be seen from the weekly histogram of polysilicon monitored by business society that polysilicon has been rising continuously in recent 5 weeks, and the increase has slowed down this week.

From the supply side: this week, the supply of polysilicon was stable, and all enterprises in production operated normally. The orders of large silicon material manufacturers were signed in September, and some large manufacturers signed new orders in October. With the completion of preliminary unit maintenance, the output of silicon material hit the bottom in mid August, and then the supply continued to increase. This week, the output was also at a relatively high level in history, but the downstream silicon wafer supply was tight, the demand was enlarged, and the market performance was relatively balanced.

From the perspective of silicon wafers in the middle link of the industrial chain, silicon materials continue to operate at a high level, and the cost leads to an overall rise in the price of downstream silicon wafers. However, the performance of silicon wafer was relatively stable this week, and the price continued the trend of last week. However, under the condition of active market trading, there are rumors that enterprises are brewing a new round of price rise, and the market needs to be further observed.

On the demand side, in terms of terminal batteries and components, due to the continuous rise in the prices of upstream raw materials silicon and silicon chips, the cost also drives the prices of battery chips and components. The price of battery chips has little change this week, mainly because under the high cost pressure, many front-line component manufacturers slow down the purchase of battery chips and focus on OEM and double distribution, and the price of polycrystalline battery chips is approaching the critical point, Rising performance is weak. With the gradual slowdown of procurement, the price of battery chips began to loosen. It is expected that there will be reverse phagocytosis on the upstream silicon material in the later stage.

Business society believes that at present, the photovoltaic industry chain continues to operate at a high level and the price continues to move upward. However, at present, the rise of silicon material is slowed down due to the slowdown of downstream demand. It is expected that the market price will operate at a high point in the near future, but there is great upward pressure in the later stage.

1、 Price trend

According to the bulk list data of business society, the average price of domestic liquid caprolactam was 14750 yuan / ton on September 6 and 15150 yuan / ton on September 12. The price of caprolactam rose 2.71% this week.

2、 Market analysis

Due to the decrease of supply this week, the price trend of caprolactam continued to rise. As of September 12, the price of Sinopec caprolactam liquid was 15300 yuan / ton. The price of Baling Hengyi caprolactam liquid is 15300 yuan / ton, 450000 tons / year. The unit is started normally and delivered after acceptance. The price of caprolactam liquid of Baling Petrochemical is 15300 yuan / ton, 300000 tons / year. The unit is started normally and delivered after acceptance. Shandong Luxi Chemical caprolactam liquid price is 15000 yuan / ton, and the manufacturer’s production capacity is 300000 tons. The actual transaction can be negotiated.

This week, the raw material pure benzene rose continuously and the price rose sharply. In the early stage, the arrival of some ships was delayed, the port inventory was low, and the shipment of local refining enterprises was ok, so the price of pure benzene fluctuated and rose. It was reported in the middle of the week that a large styrene plant downstream was planned to be overhauled in October. The supply of styrene was expected to tighten, and the price rose sharply, driving the rise of pure benzene.

3、 Future forecast

Caprolactam analysts of business society believe that at present, the operation of caprolactam enterprises is low, the overall supply is reduced, and there is no change in the short term. The downstream slice market demand is acceptable. The rise of raw materials is strongly supported by the cost. It is expected that the price of caprolactam will continue to rise in the short term.

The market of aluminum fluoride was temporarily stable this week

According to the data of business agency, the price of aluminum fluoride was temporarily stable this week, and the strong market of aluminum fluoride was temporarily stable. As of September 10, the domestic price of aluminum fluoride was 8966.67 yuan / ton, which was temporarily stable compared with the price of 8966.67 yuan / ton last weekend (September 3), and the market of aluminum fluoride was stable; Compared with the price of 8866.67 yuan / ton on August 29, it increased by 1.13%. Aluminum fluoride market is strong and stable temporarily.

The price of aluminum ingot reached a new high in the week

According to the monitoring of business society, the aluminum commodity index on September 10 was 126.61, up 2.26 points from yesterday, hitting a record high in the cycle, up 133.51% from the lowest point of 54.22 on November 24, 2015. (Note: the period refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to now). Aluminum prices hit a new high this week, and the rise of aluminum market remains the same. The overall aluminum market is rising, and the rising power of aluminum fluoride price remains the same.

Raw material market stabilizes

According to the monitoring of the business community, the price of fluorite was temporarily stable this week, the price of hydrofluoric acid increased slightly, the market price of raw materials stabilized, the positive effect on the aluminum fluoride Market weakened, and the aluminum fluoride Market stabilized.

Market overview and forecast

Analysts of aluminum fluoride industry of business agency believe that this week, the market of aluminum fluoride raw materials stabilized, the rise of electrolytic aluminum remained, the cost of aluminum fluoride stabilized, and the downstream supported aluminum fluoride greatly. Generally speaking, the rising power of aluminum fluoride remains, and the expected strength of aluminum fluoride in the future is temporarily stable.

Spot price: according to the price monitoring of business society, the average price of domestic polyester staple fiber spot market on September 8 was 7101 yuan / ton.

Futures market: on September 8, the futures price of pf2201 contract closed at 6764, down 3.81% from the previous trading day, and the settlement price was 6844 yuan; The trading volume is 300763 hands; The position is 177005 hands, with a basis of 337. Domestic polyester industry chain futures closed mixed today, with PTA down 3.01% and ethylene glycol up 0.44%.

Analysis: on the cost side, crude oil fell slightly in recent days. PTA futures fell sharply in recent days due to the restart of devices. Today, they fell by more than 3%. However, ethylene glycol futures rose due to the high cost of coal prices in recent weeks. On the demand side, the polyester yarn factory just needs to purchase, and the sales of polyester staple fiber is weak. On the supply side, a polyester staple fiber plant in Zhejiang was overhauled and shut down for about one month, involving a production capacity of 100000 tons / year.

Forecast: in the future, the short-term polyester staple fiber price may fluctuate weakly under the condition of weak demand and the continued weakness of crude oil and PTA prices.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring data of business agency, the average market price at the beginning of the week was about 1111.25 yuan / ton, and the average market price at the weekend was about 1157.5 yuan / ton, with a price increase of 4.16% and a year-on-year increase of 108.28%. On September 5, the thermal coal commodity index was 139.46, which was the same as yesterday, hitting a record high in the cycle, up 211.99% from the lowest point of 44.70 on January 20, 2016（ Note: period refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to now)

Origin: the coal supply in the origin has improved. The sales of coal mines in the main origin is good. The number of coal vehicles on the mine is not reduced, and most of them are produced and sold immediately. Affected by environmental protection, and although at the beginning of the month, the coal management ticket of the coal mine is sufficient and the output has increased, the supply is still in a tight situation. Data from downstream power plants show that the inventory of power plants has decreased, and coastal power plants hold a wait-and-see attitude towards high price coal. Due to the weather, the peak power consumption of the power plant has passed, and the daily consumption shows a downward trend, but the inventory of the power plant is still at a low value, and the demand for replenishment is still increasing. Moreover, although the high price power plant is in a state of conflict, the users who just need it have to accept the current price.

According to the data released by the National Bureau of statistics on August 24, the national coal price rose steadily in mid August. The specific price changes of each coal are as follows: the price of anthracite (washing medium block, volatile ≤ 8%) is 1521.3 yuan / ton, an increase of 74.2 yuan / ton or 5.1% over the previous period. The price of ordinary mixed coal (mixed coal of Shanxi pulverized coal and lump coal, with calorific value of 4500 kcal) is 775 yuan / ton, which is the same as that in the previous period. The price of Shanxi Dahui (mixed coal with good quality and calorific value of 5000 kcal) is 865 yuan / ton, which is the same as that in the previous period. The price of Shanxi Youhun (high-quality mixed coal with calorific value of 5500 kcal) is 945 yuan / ton, which is the same as that in the previous period. The price of Datong blended coal (Datong blended coal with calorific value of 5800 kcal) is 970 yuan / ton, which is the same as that in the previous period. The price of coking coal (main coking coal, sulfur content < 1%) was 2525 yuan / ton, an increase of 225 yuan / ton or 9.8% over the previous period. The above data show that in mid August, the prices of coking coal and anthracite continued to rise sharply, and the price of thermal coal stabilized.

Business analysts believe that due to the weather, the peak power consumption of the power plant has passed, and the daily consumption shows a downward trend, but the inventory of the power plant is still at a low value, and the demand for replenishment is still increasing. Moreover, although the high price power plant is in a state of conflict, the users who just need it have to accept the current price. It is comprehensively estimated that in the later stage, the power coal is still strong, depending on the downstream market demand.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring data of business agency, the price of caustic soda was consolidated and operated. The market price in Shandong was 650 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week and 652.5 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week. The price increased by 0.38% and 38.1% compared with the same period last year. On September 5, the caustic soda commodity index was 93.88, unchanged from yesterday, down 54.62% from the highest point 206.87 in the cycle (November 14, 2017), and up 44.19% from the lowest point 65.11 on October 9, 2020（ Note: period refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to now)

2、 Market analysis

Caustic soda price consolidation operation this week. The price of caustic soda in Shandong has been adjusted and put into operation. Now the mainstream ex factory price of 32% caustic soda is 620-720 yuan / ton. Downstream demand is mainly on-demand procurement, and there is a strong wait-and-see mood. Now caustic soda manufacturers adjust their prices according to their own conditions, and it is comprehensively expected that caustic soda will mainly operate temporarily and stably in the follow-up. The price of caustic soda in Hebei fluctuates slightly. At present, the mainstream ex factory price of 32% caustic soda is 680-780 yuan / ton. It is expected that the subsequent consolidation and operation of caustic soda will be the main.

Upstream liquid chlorine showed an upward trend this week, but it is currently at a high level and resisted by the downstream. It is expected that there will be some room for decline in the later stage. Downstream: at present, alumina enterprises mainly purchase caustic soda on demand, and the quotation of caustic soda manufacturers is stable. In addition, the downstream has a mentality of resistance to high price caustic soda, and the two sides launch a price game.

According to the price monitoring of the business society, in the list of price rise and fall of chlor alkali industry in the 35th week of 2021 (8.30-9.3), there were 3 kinds of commodities rising, 2 kinds falling and 0 kinds rising or falling. The main commodities rising were: light soda ash (1.08%), PVC (0.80%), caustic soda (0.38%); The main commodities falling were hydrochloric acid (- 1.13%) and calcium carbide (- 0.92%). Both rose or fell by 0.05% this week.

Business analysts believe that recently, the price of caustic soda in Shandong has maintained stable operation, while the downstream alumina is mainly purchased on demand. It is expected that the follow-up consolidation and operation of caustic soda will mainly depend on the downstream market demand.

1、 Price trend

According to the bulk list data of business society, the domestic glycine market operated smoothly this week, and the average price of industrial glycine was stable at 25000 yuan / ton without rise or fall.

2、 Analysis and review

According to the price chart of the business club, the domestic glycine market has stabilized at a high level, and the price of industrial glycine is 25000 yuan / ton. It is understood that the enterprise mainly comes to customers, and the supply of goods is tight. The downstream demand is mainly rigid demand, and the demand situation is acceptable. With the support of demand, the price of glycine is strong and the industry profit is considerable.

Demand: downstream glyphosate rose slightly, and glyphosate technical rose to 52000 yuan / ton. It is reported that the factory orders are almost full, the supply is in short supply, and the demand in the overseas market is strong. In the peak demand season, the price is expected to continue to rise.

3、 Future forecast

Glycine analysts of business society believe that under the stimulation of the further rise of downstream glyphosate, glycine has the conditions to push up, and the price is expected to rise again.

According to the monitoring data of business society, as of August 31, the average ex factory price of domestic industrial grade propylene glycol was 17288 yuan / ton. Compared with August 1 (the reference price of propylene glycol was 16600 yuan / ton), the average price increased by 688 yuan / ton, or 4.12%.

In the middle and early August, the domestic propylene glycol market rose steadily. The rise of propylene glycol price was mainly supported by cost and unit. In terms of cost, in terms of cost, the recent upward trend of raw material propylene oxide gave propylene glycol cost support. In terms of devices, at the beginning of this month, the devices of Shandong propylene glycol plant were started and stopped, the overall operating rate was low, the supply pressure of propylene glycol plant was small, and the spot inventory was low. As of the 16th, the ex factory quotation of propylene glycol in Shandong was around 16900-17800 yuan / ton, and the average price was 17466 yuan / ton. Compared with the beginning of August, the average price increased by 866 yuan / ton, an increase of 5.22% in half a month.

In late August, a few days after the high-level operation of the propylene glycol market, the market trading atmosphere was flat. Most of the downstream companies needed to purchase, and the wait-and-see mood increased from high prices to the downstream. In addition, some plant units resumed operation, and the supply of propylene glycol in the site increased. Since the 19th, the price of propylene glycol in some factories decreased by 200-300 yuan / ton, The ex factory quotation of propylene glycol in Shandong decreased to around 16900-17400 yuan / ton. Subsequently, the transaction atmosphere in the propylene glycol market continued to be weak, and some factories with a high proportion of spot goods continued to accumulate stocks. On the 23rd, the sharp decline opened, and the middle and lower reaches remained cautious. Propylene glycol factories and cargo holders have sharply reduced the ex factory price of propylene glycol. As of the 25th, the ex factory price of domestic propylene glycol fell to around 16300-16800 yuan / ton, and then the market operated stably and weakly.

Until the 27th, the propylene glycol market rebounded. Due to the failure of propylene glycol units in Shaanxi, the supply of propylene glycol in the yard decreased. Under the low price, the enthusiasm of middle and downstream customers to take goods increased, the factory inventory decreased, and the propylene glycol price increased. On the 27th, the outgoing price of domestic propylene glycol returned from 17000 yuan / ton, with a reference of 17000-17500 yuan / ton. On August 30, the price of propylene glycol continued to callback slightly. As of August 31, according to the monitoring data of business society, the reference average price of propylene glycol in China was 17288 yuan / ton, which was increased by 688 yuan / ton compared with the beginning of August, with a monthly increase of 4.12%.

In terms of upstream propylene oxide, the propylene oxide market first rose and then stabilized in the first half of August, with a half month increase of 4.45%. At the beginning of the month, the mainstream quotation of propylene oxide Market in Shandong was around 16300-16400 yuan / ton, the factory inventory decreased, the burden of some Po units decreased, the supply side was slightly tight, the supply side supported the manufacturers’ mentality of supporting the market, the middle and lower reaches were cautious and active in preparing goods, the enterprise quotation increased, the market trading rhythm slowed down, the price operated stably under the supply-demand game, mainly waiting and sorting, On the 10th, the mainstream quotation of propylene oxide Market in Shandong was around 16500-16600 yuan / ton. With the improvement of downstream polyether orders, propylene oxide manufacturers had no pressure, the market transaction was active, the price rose slightly, the market digested and sorted again, and the price operated stably. In the second half of August, the market focus of propylene oxide continued to decline, and the market stabilized after a slight rebound at the end of the month. On the 16th, the mainstream quotation of propylene oxide Market in Shandong was around 16700-16800 yuan / ton. The factory inventory pressure was controllable, which supported the manufacturers’ strong market mentality. However, the downstream follow-up was general, and the market was temporarily consolidated. With the continuous downturn of new downstream polyether orders, the purchase price of propylene oxide was reduced, the supply-demand game weakened, the market was lowered, and the enterprises delivered goods at a profit in late August, Downstream just needed orders began to release. With the smooth decline of the market, the price stopped falling and increased slightly after stabilizing. Near the end of the month, the market was temporarily stable and waiting. In August, the propylene oxide market rose first and then fell. Near the end of the month, the market stopped falling and stabilized after a slight rebound. The overall trend fell slightly in August. According to the monitoring data of business society, as of August 31, the average price of propylene oxide enterprises was 16033.33 yuan / ton, down 1.64% compared with August 1 (the reference price of propylene oxide was 16300 yuan / ton).

Future trend analysis

At present, the domestic propylene glycol market is relatively stable, the downstream mostly maintains a cautious wait-and-see attitude, and the operation of Shandong factory is normal. The propylene glycol analyst of business society believes that in the short term, the propylene glycol market will focus on stable consolidation and operation, and the specific trend needs to pay more attention to the changes of supply and demand.

In August, the domestic liquid ammonia market fell sharply, especially in the latter ten days. According to the monitoring of business society, the liquid ammonia fell by 21.16% in the whole month of August, mainly due to the increase of market supply and the high inventory of manufacturers. In the case of low demand, the market was forced to reduce prices and arrange inventory, and the market continued to fall.

In August, the supply of liquid ammonia was abundant, especially in the middle and late ten days. With the resumption of maintenance units, the supply pressure increased sharply. Previously, under the influence of enterprise maintenance and domestic shortage, liquid ammonia experienced a soaring market in mid and late July. However, it did not last long. Since the end of July, the price of liquid ammonia continued to fall, and the market fell in August. On the one hand, the epidemic has led to poor traffic and inventory backlog. On the other hand, the high opening rate of enterprises has led to a surge in output. Without any favorable demand, liquid ammonia fell again and again. By the end of the month, the domestic market price of liquid ammonia was 3400-3800 yuan / ton.

On the cost side, liquid ammonia deviates from the upstream coal market. Due to the increase of cost pressure and the downward impact of liquid ammonia price, the profits of ammonia enterprises have shrunk sharply, and now they are hovering on the edge of loss. The domestic coal market continues to be hot. According to the monitoring of the business community, the power coal began to develop in the last ten days. From August 19 to 31, the power coal increased by 8.21%. At present, the power coal price has exceeded the 1100 yuan / ton mark（ (see figure above)

From the supply side, in early August, liquid ammonia was still at a high level, but the manufacturer has entered the accumulation period. In the middle and late ten days, domestic ammonia enterprises ushered in the centralized production resumption period. Previously, many sets of units were overhauled all over the country. The production resumption of units in the maintenance period was started in Shandong, Hebei, Ningxia, Anhui, Hubei and other regions, and the market supply increased significantly. More importantly, in the early July, affected by the domestic epidemic, the traffic was poor, the shipment of ammonia enterprises decreased, and the manufacturer’s inventory was generally high. The continuous high volume of ammonia enterprises forced the price of liquid ammonia to fall again and again, with a decline of more than 500 yuan / ton per week on the 27th.

On the demand side, urea also came out of the shock and decline in August. In particular, it continued to decline in the middle and late August. According to the monitoring of business society, urea fell by 13.43% in the whole month. Weak demand side is the main reason for the decline of urea. After entering August, the domestic agricultural demand for urea has basically ended, the procurement has slowed down, and the increment of industrial demand is also insufficient. The recession on the demand side has led to the continuous accumulation of industrial inventory, the continuous price reduction of manufacturers and the pessimistic downward market.

In the future, the pressure on domestic ammonia supply is still obvious, but at present, the price is at a low level. At the end of the month, ammonia enterprises have stopped falling and stabilized, and some enterprises raise their quotations. Moreover, the upstream cost surged, the pressure on enterprises increased significantly, the downstream space was insufficient in the later stage, and there was rebound demand in the market. However, from the demand side, it is expected that the seasonal increment space of compound fertilizer in September is limited, and the agricultural and industrial needs will still be weak. Therefore, it is expected that the liquid ammonia market will still be difficult to improve greatly, mainly rebounding slightly.