In October, the rising trend of EVA market did not continue, ushered in the callback market, and the overall trend was stable, medium and downward. According to the data monitoring of the business agency, the average ex factory price of domestic EVA was 27533.33 yuan / ton on October 1 and 24200.00 yuan / ton on October 28. The decline rate in the month was 12.11%, up 22.02% compared with October 1.

As of October 28, the ex factory quotation of EVA is as follows:

product manufactor model Ex factory price

EVA yanshan petrochemical 18J3 25500 yuan / ton

EVA Beijing Organic Y2022 22000 yuan / ton

EVA BASF Yangzi V5110J 25100 yuan / ton

In October, the domestic EVA market stabilized first and then fell. In the first half of the month, the market was relatively strong, dominated by sideways price consolidation, dominated by negative factors in the second half of the month, and ushered in a falling market. However, on the whole, the fluctuation range of the market in the month was limited. In the first half of the month, although the market continued to rise and the power was insufficient, the strong prices of petrochemical enterprises and the high cost brought some support to the market. In addition, the good demand for photovoltaic materials also brought support to the market. However, in the second half of the month, the market is very bad. Petrochemical enterprises have successively reduced the ex factory price, with weak cost support. Under the power restriction policy, the operating rate of downstream factories has declined, and the market supply has not changed much. The transaction atmosphere in the mainstream market is general, multidimensional sustainability needs to be followed up, and the operators are cautious. Businesses have different mentality, mainly wait-and-see, and EVA prices fall.

In the upstream ethylene market, the external ethylene market showed an overall upward trend in October. Asian ethylene market prices continued to rise. As of the 26th, CFR Northeast Asia closed at US $1196-1206 / ton and CFR Southeast Asia closed at US $1111-1121 / ton. European ethylene market prices rose slightly. As of the 26th, FD northwest Europe closed at US $1252-1264 / T and CIF northwest Europe closed at US $1170-1178 / T. The price of ethylene in the United States rose. As of the 26th, the price was 790-807 yuan / ton. Throughout October, the overall demand of the external ethylene market was good, the market trading atmosphere was active, and the market continued to rise.

On the whole, the current competitive supply price is relatively strong, which has brought some support to the market, and in terms of demand, the demand for photovoltaic materials can still bring some benefits to the market. However, the market supply has not changed much, the inventory of hard material sources has increased gradually, the operating rate of downstream manufacturers has declined due to the impact of relevant policies, the maintenance just needs to be followed up, the operators are cautious and have a strong wait-and-see mood, and the overall transaction atmosphere of the market is deadlocked. At present, the market lacks obvious benefits. It is expected that the EVA market will rise in November or continue to weaken.

According to the data monitored by the business agency, the quotation of Shanxi industrial grade first-class potassium nitrate at the beginning of the month was 5425.00 yuan / ton, and the quotation of Shanxi industrial grade first-class potassium nitrate at the end of the month was 5675.00 yuan / ton, an increase of 4.61%, the current price increased by 4.13% month on month, and the current price increased by 38.41% year-on-year.

potassium nitrate

In October, the market of potassium nitrate in Shanxi generally showed an upward trend. As can be seen from the above figure, potassium nitrate has risen for three weeks and has risen to a high level. The potassium nitrate Market has a good digestion of supply, the market supply is tight, most traders are reluctant to sell and control the supply. There are few supply sources on the market, the downstream procurement is active, and the potassium nitrate market rises. The market of potassium nitrate continues to rise. According to the statistics of the business agency, the quotation of mainstream manufacturers of potassium nitrate in Shanxi this week is 5500-5800 yuan / ton (the quotation is for reference only). The quotation is different according to different procurement conditions.

Recently, the quotation of mainstream potassium chloride manufacturers has been temporarily stable: there is a tight supply of domestic potash fertilizer. Although the production enterprises are fully engaged in production, the operating rate is slightly low, the self-sufficiency rate is insufficient, and the international demand for potash fertilizer is strong, but there is a tight supply of domestic potash fertilizer. Under the influence of supply and demand and raw materials in the short-term potassium chloride market, the potassium chloride market is dominated by high-level consolidation.

In the near future, the supply of potash fertilizer market is insufficient, and the procurement of downstream factories is just in demand. It is expected that the potassium nitrate Market will mainly rise in the short term, and the long-term market still needs to wait and see. (the above prices are provided by major potassium nitrate manufacturers all over the country and sorted and analyzed by potassium carbonate analysts of business society. They are for reference only. Please contact relevant manufacturers for more price details).

441# silicon price trend

Prices of 441# silicon in various regions on the 26th are as follows:

The price range of #441 metallic silicon in Huangpu port is 43500-44500 yuan / ton; The price range of #441 metallic silicon in Tianjin port is 44000-45000 yuan / ton; The price range of #441 metallic silicon in Kunming is 43000-44000 yuan / ton; The price range of #441 metallic silicon in Sichuan is 43000-44000 yuan / ton; Fujian #441 metal trading range 37000-38000 yuan / ton; The price range of Shanghai #441 metal silicon is 49000-50000 yuan / ton.

Market analysis

The turnover of metal silicon market is sluggish, and the price generally continues to decline. The price of 441# metal silicon in Fujian has been adjusted to less than 30000, which is maintained at 43500-45000 yuan / ton as a whole, and the quotation in Shanghai is 49500 yuan / ton. At present, people in the industry are generally bearish about the future market. In addition, most manufacturers have a certain inventory. However, affected by the epidemic situation in Xinjiang, power control is becoming stricter, and the southwest is about to stop production in the dry season, metal silicon merchants are also more willing to support prices.

Future forecast

Business analysts believe that the silicon price may decline slightly in the short term, and the possibility of price correction cannot be ruled out in the long term.

The spot tin market price (10.15-10.22) fluctuated upward this week. The average price in the domestic market was 2853877.50 yuan / ton last weekend and 289762.50 yuan / ton this weekend, up 1.53% this week.

On October 22, the tin commodity index was 147.60, unchanged from yesterday, down 2.93% from the highest point 152.06 in the cycle (2021-10-21), and up 244.38% from the lowest point 42.86 on December 9, 2015. (Note: the period refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to now).

The futures market continued to strengthen this week, hitting a new high of $38800 / ton. Tin prices continue to set new record highs. Recently, long and short differences have increased. The market is on the sidelines, and some people are afraid of heights again. In the spot market, the processing fee has risen rapidly recently, and the smelter is under great pressure. With the recovery of tin price and good profits, the smelter is motivated to start work. In October, the impact of power rationing policy and environmental protection policy gradually weakened, and the future supply is expected to increase further. However, the overall inventory is still low and the supply is still tight. Overall, the pattern of tin supply and demand remains weak, and the price remains volatile. However, the supply side is tight, the domestic tin ingot inventory continues to be low, and the support for tin price is good.

According to the price monitoring of the business community, in the list of commodity prices rising and falling in the 42nd week of 2021 (10.18-10.22), there are 14 kinds of commodities rising month on month in the non-ferrous sector, including 3 kinds of commodities rising by more than 5%, accounting for 13.6% of the monitored commodities in the sector; The top three commodities were praseodymium neodymium oxide (6.50%), praseodymium neodymium alloy (5.65%) and neodymium oxide (5.51%). A total of 6 commodities decreased month on month, and 3 commodities decreased by more than 5%, accounting for 13.6% of the monitored commodities in this sector; The products with the top three declines were silicon (- 13.79%), zinc (- 10.44%) and aluminum (- 9.11%). The average rise and fall this week was – 0.29%, and the nonferrous metal market rose more or fell less this week.

In the future, the business community believes that the tight supply supports the rising tin price, which is difficult to alleviate in the short term. It is expected that the tin price will still maintain a strong trend of shock.

This week, the domestic methanol spot market fell sharply and remained high overall. This is mainly because the northwest takes out methanol, but the sales are general, the enterprise inventory increases, the Underground Tour in Shandong and so on, and the enthusiasm for receiving goods is not high. According to the monitoring data of business agency, from October 15 to 22, the average price of domestic methanol production enterprises in Shandong fell from 4480 yuan / ton to 3825 yuan / ton. During the cycle, the price fell 14.26%, the price rose 21.43% month on month and 97.93% year-on-year.

The methanol market fell sharply and the transaction was poor. After the sharp reduction of the factories in the main production area, the transaction was general, the local second adjustment soon appeared, and the terminal receiving price in northern Shandong was also reduced as scheduled. With the sharp decline of futures, mainland regions also began to follow the downward trend.

Summary of methanol market prices in various regions as of October 22:

Region, price

Qinghai region 3500 yuan / ton factory withdrawal cash exchange

Shanxi region 3500-3510 yuan / ton factory withdrawal cash exchange

Liaoning region 4150-4200 yuan / ton delivered to the plant

Fujian region RMB 3400-3450 / T ex warehouse spot exchange

Lianghu area The actual delivery refers to 3500-3600 yuan / ton, and the factory withdraws cash exchange

Anhui region 3600-3650 yuan / ton factory acceptance

Henan region Refer to 3700 yuan / ton factory withdrawal cash exchange

The prices of products in the methanol industry chain are mixed, the coal price of methanol upstream products is rising sharply, the price of natural gas is stable, and the cost of methanol is strongly supported; Among downstream products, the price of methane chloride in Shandong increased the most; Among related products, the price of urea in Shandong increased the most.

Comparison chart of coal / steam coal (upstream raw material) – methanol price trend of business community:

Comparison chart of natural gas (upstream raw material) – methanol price trend of business community:

In terms of external market, as of the closing on October 21, the closing price of CFR Southeast Asia methanol market was US $540.00-541.00/t, down US $1 / T. US Gulf methanol market closed at 146.00-147.00 cents / gallon, down 2 cents / gallon; The closing price of FOB Rotterdam methanol market was 442.00-443.00 euros / ton, down 8.25 euros / ton.

region ., Country, closing price, up and down

Asia CFR Southeast Asia 540.00-541.00 USD / ton – USD 1 / ton

Europe and America American Gulf 146.00-147.00 cents / gallon 0 cents / gallon

Europe FOB Rotterdam 442.00-443.00 euros / ton – 8.25 euro / ton

If coal prices stop falling, methanol cost support is still obvious. Methanol analysts of business society expect that the domestic methanol market will be mainly sorted out in the short term.

Recent price trend of sulfuric acid

As can be seen from the above figure, the domestic sulfuric acid market price fell this week, and the quotation fell from 871.67 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 866.67 yuan / ton at the end of the week, a decrease of 0.57%, a year-on-year increase of 118.03% compared with the same period last year. Overall, the sulfuric acid market fell this week, and the sulfuric acid commodity index was 134.89 on October 15.

The downstream market was boosted and the willingness to purchase was strengthened

From the manufacturer’s quotation, the prices of mainstream domestic sulfuric acid manufacturers fell this week, the manufacturer’s inventory was general, and the downstream demand was good. The quotation of Heze Jiangyuan sulfuric acid at the weekend is 900 yuan / ton, which is temporarily stable compared with that at the beginning of the week; Zouping Tianlu sulfuric acid is quoted at 720 yuan / ton this weekend, which is temporarily stable compared with that at the beginning of the week; Changzhou Qinghong sulfuric acid offers 1000 yuan / ton at the weekend, which is 50 yuan / ton lower than that at the beginning of the week; Changzhou Changjiang sulphuric acid quoted 850 yuan / ton at the weekend, down 50 yuan / ton compared with the beginning of the week; The quotation of Xiangcheng San’an sulfuric acid at the weekend is 980 yuan / ton, which is temporarily stable compared with that at the beginning of the week; Liaocheng Huatong sulfuric acid quoted 750 yuan / ton at the weekend, an increase of 70 yuan / ton compared with the beginning of the week.

From the perspective of upstream and downstream industrial chains, the upstream sulfur market rose slightly last week. The quotation increased from 1970.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 2036.67 yuan / ton at the end of the week, an increase of 3.38%, a year-on-year increase of 128.84% compared with the same period last year, with good cost support. The downstream bromine market rose slightly, and the quotation increased from 67125.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 69500.00 yuan / ton at the end of the week, an increase of 3.54%, a year-on-year increase of 123.39% compared with the same period last year. The downstream formic acid market rose slightly. The quotation increased from 8016.67 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 8050.00 yuan / ton at the end of the week, an increase of 0.42%, a year-on-year increase of 289.52% compared with the same period last year. On the whole, the upstream and downstream products had a positive impact on the price of sulfuric acid this week.

Market outlook rose slightly

In late October, the sulfuric acid Market in Shandong Province mainly rose slightly. The upstream sulfur price has recently been adjusted at a high level, with good cost support. The downstream bromine market has risen sharply, and the downstream formic acid market has been adjusted at a high level. The downstream has strengthened its enthusiasm for purchasing sulfuric acid, and the product trend is upward under the contradiction between supply and demand. Business society sulfuric acid analysts believe that under the influence of supply and demand and raw materials in the domestic sulfuric acid Market in the short term, the sulfuric acid market may rise slightly.

Trade name: chlorinated paraffin

Latest price: 8333 yuan / ton

Key points of analysis: on October 20, the price of chlorinated paraffin increased by 11.61% compared with the previous trading day. At present, the price of chlorinated paraffin 52 continues to rise and the transaction is general. Today, the price of raw liquid chlorine rose again and continued to rise recently. In the case of rising costs, the chlorinated paraffin market still has an upward trend.

Future forecast: the price of chlorinated paraffin will continue to rise in the short term.

According to the monitoring data of business society, the price of chlorinated paraffin increased this week. On October 11, the average ex factory price of domestic chlorinated paraffin 52 was 6766 yuan / ton, and on October 17, the average ex factory price of domestic chlorinated paraffin 52 was 7133 yuan / ton. This week, the price of chlorinated paraffin increased by 5.42%.

2、 Market analysis

This week, the domestic chlorinated paraffin started stably and the unit operated normally. Due to the influence of dual control, the price of raw materials rose strongly, driving the price increase of chlorinated paraffin. The ex factory quotation of chlorinated paraffin 52 in Anhui is about 7700 yuan / ton, that in South China is 7200-8000 yuan / ton, that in North China is about 7500 yuan / ton, that in Shaanxi is about 6900 yuan / ton, and that in Shandong is 7000-7300 yuan / ton.

In terms of raw liquid wax, the market price of liquid wax rose this week, ranging from 500-1500 yuan / ton. Due to the tight supply of liquid wax, there is still room for upward growth in the short term. In terms of raw liquid chlorine, the price of liquid chlorine generally rose this week, and the trading in North China was good, which may continue to rise in the short term.

3、 Future forecast

Analysts of chlorinated paraffins of business society believe that chlorinated paraffins rise due to the reduction of raw material supply and tight supply this week. At present, the cost pressure of chlorinated paraffin is large, and the downstream enterprises are in the mood of price offset. At present, there is still room for the price of raw materials to rise. It is expected that the price of chlorinated paraffin will continue to rise in the short term.

According to the monitoring of the business society, the price index of the domestic rare earth market rose slightly, some prices of the domestic praseodymium neodymium rare earth market rose, and the price of the heavy rare earth market was stable. According to the rare earth sector index of the business society, the rare earth index was 615 points on October 17, the same as yesterday, down 38.50% from the highest point of 1000 points in the cycle (December 6, 2011), It is 126.94% higher than the lowest point of 271 on September 13, 2015. (Note: the period refers to the period from December 1, 2011 to now).

It can be clearly seen from the rare earth index chart that the price of domestic rare earth has increased recently, the price of mainstream commodities in the rare earth market has increased recently, and the rare earth market has increased. In terms of products:

It can be clearly seen from the product price trend chart that the price trend of domestic praseodymium neodymium oxide, praseodymium oxide, neodymium oxide, metal neodymium, metal praseodymium neodymium and metal praseodymium rose. As of October 18, the price of neodymium oxide in domestic rare earths was 635000 yuan / ton, up 1.20%; The price of praseodymium oxide was 667500 yuan / ton, up 4.3% this week; The price of praseodymium neodymium oxide was 615000 yuan / ton, up 2.07% this week; The price of praseodymium neodymium alloy was 752500 yuan / ton, with a price increase of 0.67%; The price of metal praseodymium was 880000 yuan / ton, and the price trend increased by 2.33%; The price of neodymium was 785000 yuan / ton, with a price trend of 1.29%, the price of domestic rare earth rose, and the light rare earth market rose slightly.

The trend of products in the domestic rare earth market is rising, the structural change of supply and demand is small, and the demand for high-end magnetic materials is normal. In the near future, China’s rare earth quota on the supply side may be steadily increased, and the supply rigidity is optimized. In addition, with the implementation of the new energy efficiency standards, the proportion of frequency conversion air conditioners for domestic household appliances, the penetration rate of Nd-Fe-B continues to increase, and the demand side is relatively normal. The sales of new energy vehicles are normal, the demand for rare earth is at a high level, and the price of rare earth oxide is rising. When there is no lock order, the rare earth metal factory mainly focuses on waiting and watching, and the procurement is more cautious. At the same time, the national environmental protection inspector is still continuing, the peak season of traditional demand for rare earth is coming, superimposing the launch expectations of relevant policies of the rare earth industry, supply and demand are expected to resonate with policies, and rare earth prices rise slightly. According to statistics, the sales of new energy vehicles are acceptable. According to the data released by China Automobile Industry Association, the latest production and sales data released by China Automobile Industry Association (hereinafter referred to as “China Automobile Association”), the retail sales of new energy passenger vehicles in China reached 334000, a year-on-year increase of 202.1%; In the first three quarters, the retail sales of new energy vehicles were 1.818 million, with a year-on-year increase of 203.1%, and the substitution effect on the fuel vehicle market is continuing. Recently, the downstream demand is OK, and the price trend of domestic light rare earth market is rising.

It can be seen from the trend chart that the price of some dysprosium Series in China rose. As of the 18th, the price of dysprosium oxide was 2.74 million yuan / ton, and the price trend decreased by 0.18%; The price of dysprosium ferroalloy is 2.725 million yuan / ton, the price trend increases by 0.37%, the price of metal dysprosium is 3.535 million yuan / ton, the price increases by 0.57%, the price of domestic terbium series continues to rise, the price of domestic terbium oxide is 8.95 million yuan / ton, and the price of metal terbium is 11.55 million yuan / ton. The transaction in the domestic rare earth market is normal, and the leading magnetic material factory purchases actively, which makes the domestic heavy rare earth market price rise slightly. In the early stage, affected by the rainy season and epidemic situation, the rare earth supply in Myanmar has been disturbed. Recently, the war in Myanmar has started again, and the supply disturbance has been further aggravated. The global rare earth supply is relatively concentrated. Myanmar is one of the production areas second only to China and the United States. Myanmar has a great impact on the domestic heavy rare earth market products, the domestic supply is tight, and the risk of production reduction of separation enterprises using Myanmar mines in the south is increased. Affected by this, the domestic heavy rare earth market price rises.

National policy support. In early July, Vice Minister Wang Jiangping of the Ministry of industry and information technology pointed out that the regulations on the administration of rare earth will be introduced as soon as possible. We expect that the regulations will be introduced with a high probability within this year, and national legislation will regulate the high-quality development of the rare earth industry. Industry insiders believe that this reflects the strengthening of government control over the rare earth industry, which is conducive to the healthy development of the industry. Since 2021, the accelerated promulgation of the regulations on the administration of rare earth will, on the one hand, make the industry have laws to abide by and promote the rare earth industry chain to embark on the road of virtuous circle development; On the other hand, it reflects China’s determination to strictly control the supply order of rare earth and support the price of rare earth as an important strategic resource. The overall demand for rare earth products is OK, the downstream demand is normal recently, and the price of domestic rare earth market is rising.

With the sustainable development of new energy vehicles, wind power and variable frequency air conditioning in the downstream of rare earth, the demand continues. In addition, the domestic rare earth supply starts normally. Recently, the on-site transactions have increased and the goods are actively prepared. The peak season of traditional demand for rare earth is coming. Chen Ling, an analyst of business society, predicts that there is room for the market price of rare earth in the later stage.

According to the monitoring data of business agency, the price of flake alkali was consolidated this week. The average market price at the beginning of the week was 5833.33 yuan / ton, and the average market price at the weekend was about 5975 yuan / ton, with a price increase of 2.43%. At present, the domestic flake alkali market basically maintains a stable trend.

Upstream caustic soda

According to the monitoring data of business agency, the price of caustic soda went up. At the beginning of the week, the market price in Shandong was 1410 yuan / ton, and the average market price in Shandong was 1502.5 yuan / ton at the weekend. The price increased by 6.56%, and the price increased by 202.01% compared with the same period last year. On October 14, the caustic soda commodity index was 211.87, unchanged from yesterday, hitting a record high in the cycle, up 225.40% from the lowest point of 65.11 on October 9, 2020. (Note: the period refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to now)

According to the business agency, due to the shortage of caustic soda supply due to limited production and electricity, the shortage of caustic soda supply supports the rise of flake alkali price to a certain extent. In general, the flake alkali price may continue to consolidate the operation market in the short term, depending on the downstream market demand.

Business analysts believe that the domestic flake alkali market has maintained a stable trend. The supply of caustic soda is tight, while the demand for alumina in the downstream is relatively positive. In general, the price of flake soda may continue to consolidate the operation market in the short term, depending on the demand of the downstream market.