441# silicon price trend

In November, the overall trend of metal silicon fell first and then stabilized. As of the 29th, the national price of metal silicon was 28130 yuan / ton, down about 1800 yuan / ton compared with the beginning of the month, down 29.60% month on month.

At the beginning of this month, the silicon price continued to fall in the market of last month. From November 1 to 10, the metal silicon fell by 32.85%. Affected by the weak demand performance, the market was in a depressed state, and the raw material cost support continued to weaken, resulting in serious price pressure on downstream customers. However, as the dry season approached, the anti falling sentiment of many silicon manufacturers increased, and the metal silicon increased by 5.84% in the third week. Some manufacturers stopped the furnace one after another, and the silicon price continued to approach the cost line, which enhanced the merchants’ mentality of reluctant to sell, the downstream procurement enthusiasm also increased significantly, and the metal silicon price was steadily promoted. At the end of the month, after the small outbreak of demand last week, the heat decreased again, the transaction slowed down slightly, and the price operated weakly and stably.

Import and export data of metallic silicon in October

In October, the sharp decline in domestic metal silicon led to a decline in export volume. According to customs data, China’s metal silicon export in October was 51000 tons, a significant decrease of 29% month on month and 12% year-on-year. From January to October, the total export of metallic silicon was 657000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 34%. It fell sharply in October, and the atmosphere of silicon market is more pessimistic. Foreign customers mainly need to replenish inventory. At present, foreign inventory is relatively low. It is expected that the export volume will increase to a certain extent in November.

The cost of electricity price rises in dry season

At present, the electricity price in the dry season has been implemented in Western Sichuan, with an average increase of 2-3 gross / kWh. The power production cost of silicon plants will directly increase by more than yuan, and it is difficult to reduce the electricity price compared with the current situation. There is little room for further reduction of metal silicon. Considering the cost reasons, the merchants are not willing to make concessions. However, in the recent period, when the price of metal silicon is lowered, the market performance is still cold, and the inquiry and transaction show a downward trend.

Downstream aspect

Organosilicon: according to the monitoring data of the business society, as of November 29, the average price of organosilicon DMC market in the mainstream areas was 31480 yuan / ton. The downstream demand side was general, the wait-and-see mood was strong, the overall market was stable, the downstream digestion of raw materials was relatively slow, mainly just needed to buy, and the market was mainly consolidated and operated.

Polysilicon: at present, the price range of polysilicon material is 170000-210000 yuan / ton. Based on the tight market supply, the performance of the middle and lower reaches is mainly weak. It has been strong before, but the market has also shown signs of peaking, which does not rule out the possibility of falling from the high price in the later stage.

Aluminum alloy: the outbound volume of Wuxi Gongyi has increased significantly today, and the transaction of aluminum alloy ingots has warmed up. Today, ADC12 is quoted at 20000 yuan / ton in Wuxi, 20200 yuan / ton in Foshan and 20300 yuan / ton in Chongqing.

Future forecast

With the arrival of the dry season in December, silicone and polysilicon will be purchased stably, and the demand will continue to output, which will break the current upstream and downstream game state of the metal silicon industry chain. With the superposition of the current metal silicon production cost of about 20000 / T and the favorable support of the cost side, the silicon price is expected to stop falling and stabilize. In addition, near the end of the month, it is not ruled out that some silicon plants sell goods at low prices in order to recover funds, and the price is relatively lower. To sum up, the trend of metal silicon is expected to stop falling and rebound in the short term.

Trend of metallic magnesium (11.1-11.30, the same below)

In November, the price of magnesium ingots “jumped up and down”, which was difficult to balance between supply and demand, resulting in repeated price fluctuations. According to the price data of business agency, as of November 26, the market tax included spot exchange was 36666.67 yuan / ton, an increase of about 1000 yuan / ton compared with the beginning of the month, an increase of 42.86%.

Market analysis in November

In the early stage, the demand for magnesium ingots continued to be weak due to the willingness of the purchaser next month. As the profit margin of magnesium plant has been significantly reduced and ferrosilicon continues to be weak and stable, the prices of blue carbon and thermal coal fell, and the magnesium price then hit the bottom and rebounded supported by costs. In the middle of the month, the overall market continued to rise after stability, and the overall shipment of the market was good. In addition, Yulin area was supported by local collection and storage policies, and there were few spot stocks in some factories. The market was willing to support the price, and the price rose rapidly, which directly led to the suspension of orders from some downstream customers and the decline of price. At the end of the month, the magnesium market suddenly became active again, and the price of magnesium ingots rebounded again.

From the perspective of supply-demand relationship

On the supply side, looking back on the sharp fluctuations in the magnesium market this month, the manufacturer’s inventory deserves attention. Most magnesium factories basically emptied their inventory at the beginning of the month. In addition, the collection and storage policy released the increasing power for the demand of the magnesium market. The overall inventory of the factory is small, and most factories need to arrange orders and make reservations. Moreover, after customers’ orders are replenished one after another, the factory futures scheduling cycle continues to extend.

On the demand side, the continuous follow-up performance of the downstream is not strong, mainly purchasing according to the price, the mentality of the downstream customers is still obvious, there are many replenishment operations on bargain hunting, and the high trading volume is small.

From the perspective of raw material relationship

Ferrosilicon fell 36.72% in November

In terms of ferrosilicon, the bidding price of ferrosilicon in November was basically between 10000-11000 yuan / ton, and some steel mills began to explore the price at the beginning of September. The steel bidding price fluctuated around 4500-6000 yuan / ton. In recent days, affected by the upward trend of futures, it has given great information to the market, and traders’ willingness to purchase has increased. However, most steel mills have not opened the bidding in December, and the mainstream steel mills have not entered the market yet, so the future market is mostly on the sidelines.

Thermal coal fell 16.05% in November

In terms of thermal coal, since the national development and Reform Commission launched a heavy attack on the coal market on October 18, the “three brothers” of coal have entered the downward channel. Although the intermediate futures market fluctuated, the overall trend continued to decline. The price of thermal coal fell 16.05% in November.

Future forecast

At present, the magnesium ingot market needs to find a new balance point. When there are few spot factories, the inventory situation of manufacturers is different, the quotation performance is different, the merchants are reluctant to sell and support the price, and it is not easy for the magnesium market to go down. Considering the continuous weak performance of downstream demand and the difficulty of price change acceptance, it is difficult for the magnesium market to continue to rise. Business analysts believe that for the short-term trend of magnesium market, we need to wait and see the demand side. According to the situation, when the transaction situation improves, the price will rise steadily.

The price of plasticizer DOP fluctuated slightly and warmed up this week

According to the data monitoring of the business agency, the DOP price fluctuated and warmed up slightly this week, and the overall DOP market warmed up slightly this week. As of November 19, the DOP price was 12137.50 yuan / ton, a slight increase of 0.94% compared with the DOP price of 12025 yuan / ton on November 12 last weekend; DOP market recovered slightly.

Isooctanol prices bottomed out and warmed up this week

According to the price monitoring of business agency, the price of isooctanol hit the bottom and warmed up this week. Downstream customers purchase and stock goods, the price of isooctanol rises briefly, the cost of plasticizer DOP rises, and the driving force of DOP rise increases.

The price of phthalic anhydride fluctuated and fell this week

According to the price monitoring of business society, the phthalic anhydride market continued the decline in November this week, and the phthalic anhydride price fluctuated and fell. The phthalic anhydride market fell, the delivery of phthalic anhydride was general, the support for the rise of phthalic anhydride weakened, the downward pressure increased, the cost of DOP decreased, and the downward pressure of DOP increased.

PVC prices stopped falling and rebounded this week

According to the price monitoring of business society, the PVC market rebounded from the bottom this week, and the overall PVC price fell slightly this week. The PVC disk was strong, the futures PVC price fluctuated and rose, which boosted the rising atmosphere of the spot market, the enterprise quotation was tentatively increased, the market trading atmosphere gradually improved, the focus began to move up, and the PVC spot price stopped falling and warmed up. PVC market rose, which was good for DOP market.

Future expectations

Bai Jiaxin, DOP data analyst of business society, believes that DOP raw materials are not supported this week, phthalic anhydride prices fall, isooctanol prices hit the bottom and rebound, DOP cost shocks stabilize, DOP falling pressure still exists, PVC prices stop falling and rebound, DOP demand improves, downstream customers’ purchasing enthusiasm increases, and DOP rising power increases. Generally speaking, DOP cost decreased, demand recovered, and DOP price shocks stabilized in the future.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring data of business agency, the price of caustic soda decreased. At the beginning of the week, the market price in Shandong was 1262.5 yuan / ton, and the average market price in Shandong was 940 yuan / ton at the weekend. The price decreased by 11.53%, and the price increased by 91.84% compared with the same period last year.

2、 Market analysis

Caustic soda prices fell this week. At present, liquid alkali shows a downward trend, and alumina enterprises have reduced the purchase price of liquid alkali for many times. The price of caustic soda in Shandong is weak, and the mainstream ex factory price of 32% caustic soda is 900-1000 yuan / ton. The purchase price of liquid alkali was lowered in the alumina market, and the price of liquid alkali was lowered due to insufficient downstream support.

Downstream: the spot quotation of alumina has fallen, and the downstream support is insufficient. At present, alumina enterprises generally purchase caustic soda and constantly exert pressure on caustic soda. The demand for alumina is general, and the shipment of caustic soda enterprises is general.

According to the price monitoring of the business society, in the price rise and fall list of chlor alkali industry in the 45th week of 2021 (11.8-11.12), there were 3 kinds of commodities rising, 2 kinds falling and 0 kinds rising or falling. The main commodities rising are: calcium carbide (0.74%), hydrochloric acid (0.63%), PVC (0.33%); The main commodities falling were caustic soda (- 11.22%) and light soda (- 0.68%). The average rise and fall this week was – 2.04%.

Business analysts believe that recently, the overall transaction of caustic soda is weak, the purchase price of alumina downstream of caustic soda has been lowered for many times, and the shipment of caustic soda is general. It is expected that caustic soda will continue to be weak in the future, depending on the downstream market demand.

From November 12 to November 19, 2021, the bidding price of crude benzene decreased significantly, from 6421 yuan / ton last weekend to 5601 yuan / ton this weekend, a weekly decrease of 12.77%.

Summary of price adjustment of Sinopec pure benzene in 2021 (unit: yuan / ton)

Date., adjusted price., adjusted amount

October 8, 8000., + 300

October 11, 8400., + 400

October 26, 8100. – 300

October 28, 7600. – 500

November 16, 7400. – 200

November 18, 7000. – 400

On November 18, 2021, the listing price of Sinopec’s pure benzene was reduced by 400 yuan / ton to 7000 yuan / ton, of which Qilu Petrochemical implemented 6950 yuan / ton. Others: the quotation of Dongming Petrochemical is 7300 yuan / ton, that of HSBC Petrochemical is 7000 yuan / ton, and that of Jincheng Petrochemical is 7000 yuan / ton; Weilian chemical offers 6803 yuan / ton, Xinhai Petrochemical 7000 yuan / ton and Hongrun petrochemical 7650 yuan / ton

In terms of crude oil, crude oil fluctuated and fell this week, and the price fell broadly. The epidemic situation in Europe worsens again, and the demand for crude oil may be frustrated; The United States may release strategic oil reserves, and the number of active oil rigs in the United States continues to increase this week. The possibility of an increase in crude oil supply also depresses oil prices. Month on month (MOM) on November 12, Brent fell 3.28 USD / barrel, or 3.99%; WTI fell $4.69/barrel, or 5.81%.

This week, affected by the weakness of crude oil and styrene, the price of pure benzene went down all the way. Sinopec continuously reduced the ex factory price by 600 yuan / ton, and the market’s bearish expectation of pure benzene in the future strengthened. Market news in the week said that Zhejiang Petrochemical No. 4 atmospheric and vacuum distillation unit had been put into operation, the supply of pure benzene was expected to increase in the later stage, the inventory of Shandong local refining enterprises accumulated, and the inventory of ships arriving at the main port in East China increased. The continuous decline of downstream styrene also depresses the market mentality. The price of hydrogenated benzene decreases all the way with pure benzene. In addition, the cost pressure of hydrogenated benzene enterprises in the near future is large, and the mentality of suppressing crude benzene is strong. At present, coking enterprises are in a state of loss after five rounds of increase and decrease, and local enterprises have taken the initiative to limit production. The overall output of crude benzene is low and the supply is slightly tight. However, under the influence of fundamentals and a large number of negative factors downstream, it is still difficult to escape the fate of price reduction this week. The bidding price of crude benzene in Shandong has been significantly reduced by 820 yuan / ton and 5600 yuan / ton.

In the future, the business society believes that the recent trend of crude oil has fluctuated and fell, or it may continue to be bad for the pure benzene market. The trend of styrene in the downstream is weak, but it is expected that some units in the downstream will restart, the demand for pure benzene may increase, the fundamentals are bad and good news coexist, and the crude benzene price has decreased greatly this week. Under the environment of slightly tight overall supply and strong price support mentality of coking enterprises, it is expected that the market price will still be weak consolidation in the short term, with limited downward space.

According to the data of business agency, as of November 21, the average price of domestic fuel oil 180CST was 5150.00 yuan / ton (including tax), down 2.28% from 5270.00 yuan / ton on November 15.

On November 21, the fuel oil commodity index was 104.30, unchanged from yesterday, down 16.12% from the highest point of 124.35 in the cycle (2021-10-26), and up 126.35% from the lowest point of 46.08 on August 15, 2016. (Note: the period refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to now)

The downward price of domestic marine oil raw materials has limited support for fuel oil 180CST. According to the business news agency, as of November 21, the self raised low sulfur quotation of 180 CST fuel oil in Zhoushan area was 5350 yuan / ton, and the self raised low sulfur quotation of 120 CST fuel oil was 5450 yuan / ton; The quotation of 180 CST self extracting low sulfur fuel oil in Shanghai is 5050 yuan / ton, and the quotation of 120 CST self extracting low sulfur fuel oil is 5150 yuan / ton.

International oil prices fell one after another. According to the monitoring of business news agency, WTI crude oil fell by 6.97% and Brent crude oil fell by 4.80%. Although the U.S. commercial crude oil inventory data was positive last week, the main concern was the epidemic in Europe and the United States wanted to release strategic crude oil reserves with major economies. The short market atmosphere still put pressure on oil prices.

Singapore’s fuel oil inventory decreased, which supported fuel oil prices. It is understood that Singapore enterprise development authority (ESG): as of the week of November 17, Singapore’s fuel oil storage fell 393000 barrels to a more than one month low of 21.356 million barrels. Singapore’s light distillate oil depot increased by 1357000 barrels to a three week high of 11.21 million barrels. Singapore’s medium distillate oil depot rose 23000 barrels to a two-week high of 9.162 million barrels.

Future forecast: crude oil has fallen sharply, which is bad for the ship fuel market. The market has a strong bearish mentality, cautious downstream procurement and strong wait-and-see mood. The market price of fuel oil 180CST low sulfur is about 5000-5300 yuan / ton, and the market price of fuel oil 120cst low sulfur is about 5100-5400 yuan / ton. It is expected that the fuel oil 180CST market may have a downward trend in the near future.

In mid November, the EVA market showed a steady downward trend, and the market lacked favorable support. According to the data monitoring of the business agency, the average ex factory price of domestic EVA was 22000.00 yuan / ton on November 14 and 21666.67 yuan / ton on November 19. The decline rate during the week was 1.52%, 4.41% lower than that on November 1.

As of November 19, the ex factory quotation of EVA is as follows:

product manufactor model Ex factory price

EVA yanshan petrochemical 18J3 22000 yuan / ton

EVA Beijing Organic Y2022 20000 yuan / ton

EVA BASF Yangzi V5110J 23000 yuan / ton

This week, the overall weak situation of the domestic EVA market remained unchanged, and the price decreased steadily. During the week, most petrochemical enterprises mainly supported the price, and some narrowly reduced the ex factory quotation. The cost support was general, there was no obvious pressure on the merchant’s inventory, and there was little willingness to decline. The overall demand of the terminal had not been significantly improved, and the downstream demand was mainly maintained. The overall mentality of the market was weak.

In the upstream ethylene market, the external ethylene market has continued to decline recently. Asian ethylene market prices fell. As of the 17th, CFR Northeast Asia closed at US $1146-1156 / ton and CFR Southeast Asia closed at US $1061-1071 / ton. The price of ethylene market in Europe fluctuated and fell. As of the 17th, FD northwest Europe closed at US $1222-1222 / T and CIF northwest Europe closed at US $1162-1170 / T. The price of ethylene in the United States fell. As of the 17th, the price was 761-779 yuan / ton. Recently, the external ethylene market continued to decline as a whole, with poor demand, cold market trading atmosphere and difficult transaction.

At present, most petrochemical enterprises mainly support the price. There is no obvious pressure on the merchant’s inventory and no willingness to make a substantial profit. There is no significant change in the market supply recently. In terms of demand, the strong photovoltaic demand has brought some support to the market. The downstream market is generally enthusiastic, and the overall shipping atmosphere of the market is poor. It is expected that the EVA market may not rise in the short term.

Price trend

According to the bulk list data of business society, the domestic PA66 market was stable and weak in mid November, and the spot price of some brands decreased. As of November 18, the average ex factory price of PA66 adhesive injection molding sample enterprises of business society was about 39500 yuan / ton, with an increase or decrease of – 1.25% compared with the average price at the beginning of the month.

Cause analysis

Industrial chain: upstream, adipic acid Market in East China has stabilized after recent decline. The price of raw material pure benzene fluctuated, the cost support weakened, large factories in the early maintenance resumed work one after another, and the market supply increased significantly. Adiponitrile has not improved much. The capacity loss claimed by large international manufacturers in the medium and long term is still affecting the market, and the supply shortage has not improved. Due to the high dependence on imports of adiponitrile, most domestic PA66 production loads are forced to operate at a low level.

The price of upstream raw material adiponitrile is high, and the cost side support of PA66 is acceptable. In terms of industrial operating rate, in addition to environmental protection policies, it is mainly affected by the shortage of adiponitrile. Except Zhejiang Huafeng, the operating rate of PA66 enterprises decreases. In terms of imported materials, the medium and long-term import and export goods of each port are insufficient, and the inventory position is not high. In terms of the demand of terminal enterprises, the demand follow-up is slow this week, the confidence of sellers is weakened, and the offer is lowered from the high level.

Future forecast

Business analysts believe that the spot price of PA66 was weak and stable in mid November. The end price of raw materials is high and stable, the shortage of adiponitrile has not been improved, the overall load of the polymerization plant is low due to the lack of raw materials, and the supply side is beneficial to the spot. However, in terms of demand, the purchase operation of downstream factories is just needed, the on-site trading volume is weak, the buyers are more resistant to the high offer, and the wait-and-see atmosphere is strong. It is expected that PA66 may continue to operate in a weak adjustment in the near future.

1、 Price trend

According to the bulk list data of business society, the price of toluene fluctuated and fell this week. It began to fall rapidly on Thursday. On November 5, the price was 6590.4 yuan / ton; On Friday (November 12), the price was 6500 yuan / ton, down 1.37% from last week; Compared with the same period last year, it increased by 92.31%.

2、 Analysis and review

The trend of crude oil fluctuated this week, the market guidance for toluene was not strong, and the market focus returned to the demand side. Gasoline fell in shock; The downstream just needs to be the main, and the negotiation is light. Sinopec continuously lowered the price of toluene, the market mentality turned empty, and the price fell with it.

In the external market, toluene rose first and then fell this week. On Friday (November 12), the price of toluene imported from South Korea was US $862 / ton, up US $5 / ton, or 0.58% compared with November 5.

Crude oil fell sharply this week. U.S. crude oil inventories continued to increase, the U.S. dollar jumped, and OPEC + lowered its oil demand forecast for the fourth quarter, suppressing oil prices. However, the end of international travel restrictions in the United States and the adoption of the trillion dollar infrastructure bill gave a positive boost to the market. The demand for crude oil may grow, and the market is worried about supply or shortage. On November 5, Brent fell 0.57 USD / barrel, or 0.69%; WTI fell US $0.48/barrel, or 0.59%.

Downstream: in terms of TDI, TDI in East China fell continuously this week. On November 12, domestic goods executed 14875 yuan / ton, down 2.94% from last week and up 2.59% from the same period last year.

In the PX market, the domestic PX price continued to stabilize this week, with the price at 7300 yuan / ton, an increase of 69.77% over the same period last year. As of November 12, the closing prices in Asia were US $905-907 / T FOB Korea and US $923-925 / T CFR China.

In terms of gasoline, gasoline prices in Shandong fell this week. On November 12, the price was 7810.8 yuan / ton, down 0.96% from last week and up 48.81% from the same period last year.

3、 Future forecast

In terms of crude oil, tight crude oil supply still exists, short-term long short game, and the trend of crude oil fluctuates. Continue to pay attention to the impact of the global epidemic, OPEC + decisions on crude oil production, the inventory dynamics of crude oil and refined oil in the United States, and the global economic situation on crude oil prices.

Although the supply of toluene is tight, the demand continues to be weak; The rising power of crude oil is weakened; Coupled with strong negative xylene, toluene may still fall. Pay attention to the dynamics of toluene plant, downstream plant dynamics and demand, as well as

Commodity index: on November 14, the polyacrylamide commodity index was 108.83, the same as yesterday, down 2.40% from the highest point 111.51 in the cycle (2021-11-03), and up 31.29% from the lowest point 82.89 on August 2, 2020. (Note: the period refers to the period from April 1, 2019 to now)

According to the data monitoring of business society, since November, the mainstream price of polyacrylamide (CPAM, cation, molecular weight of 12 million, 10-30 ionic degree) in China’s market has been slightly weak. The domestic mainstream price was 18250 yuan / ton on the 1st, 18000 yuan / ton on the 8th and 17812.5 yuan / ton on the 14th, with a decrease of 2.4% in the half month and 1.04% in the week from the 8th to the 14th.

Among them, raw material acrylonitrile: so far this month, the mainstream market quotation has been stable at about 15400 yuan / ton, which has little impact on the change of polyacrylamide cost. It is reported that the supply has increased this week, and the tight market supply situation has been alleviated. Raw material acrylic acid: since the beginning of the month, the domestic acrylic acid has fluctuated and declined. According to the data of business society, the mainstream quotation in the market on the 1st was about 18733.33 yuan / ton, the mainstream quotation on the 8th was about 17700 yuan / ton, and the main quotation on the 14th was 17566.67 yuan / ton, with a half month decrease of 6.23%; The monitoring shows that the recent downstream demand for acrylic acid is light, the enthusiasm for inquiry and procurement is general, the wait-and-see atmosphere is strong, the supply is slightly sufficient, the cost and demand support are insufficient, and the acrylic acid market price is under pressure.

LNG is used in the production process. According to the monitoring data of business society, the domestic LNG market fell first and then rose this week, and then started to rise in an all-round way. The rebound was mainly due to the controllable inventory of the liquid plant, the improvement of shipping atmosphere and the increase of demand after the continuous price reduction sales in the early stage. On November 14, the average price of domestic LNG was 7793.33 yuan / ton, an increase of 636 yuan / ton compared with 6856.67 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week, an increase of 9.29% during the week. The LNG analyst of business agency believes that: at present, the market trading is good, the shipment of liquid plants turns smoothly, and the price support mentality is strong. In addition, the raw gas auction continues to boost the market, and the domestic LNG market rebounds upward. However, after the continuous rise, considering the downstream receiving capacity, the increase is expected to narrow, and there may be a risk of local reduction.

As for the future market, the supporting role of raw materials acrylic acid and acrylonitrile is weakened, and the future market of fuel liquefied natural gas may be reduced. The sharp rise in the cost of raw materials in the early stage led to the high cost of taking goods downstream, resulting in the delay of procurement; Recently, the prices of raw materials and costs have decreased slightly, the downstream purchasing has increased, and the transaction is more stable than that in the early stage. It is expected that in the future, there is little possibility of a sharp decline in polyacrylamide, and there is a great possibility of a slight correction and stabilization.