1、 Trend analysis

According to the nickel price monitoring of business society, the nickel price fluctuated and rose this week. As of November 12, the spot price was 148133.33 yuan / ton, up 2.76% from 144150 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week, up 15.61% from the beginning of the year, and up 20.96% year-on-year.

Nickel weekly rise and fall chart

According to the weekly rise and fall chart of business society, in the past 12 weeks, nickel prices have increased by 3 and decreased by 9, with more or less recent declines.

Macro factors: a large real estate group heavily indebted paid bond interest on time, which makes people expect that the real estate industry may get more policy support, and the domestic real estate risk appetite has warmed up.

Nickel industry chain

Supply: in November, the main mining area of Suli high nickel mine in the Philippines gradually entered the rainy season. Since the end of October, loading has been suspended or new shipping schedules have been suspended. With the advent of the rainy season, nickel ore shipments will decline seasonally again. Sumitomo Metal’s nickel production decreased month on month in the third quarter, the global nickel supply was still tight, and the superimposed nickel inventory continued to be deposed.

Downstream: the crude steel output of domestic stainless steel plants in November is expected to be 2.5812 million tons, with an increase of 14.39% month on month. The current inventory of stainless steel is still at a relatively low level, and there is no obvious increase in inventory. Entering the traditional off-season, the demand for stainless steel is relatively weak, mainly purchasing on demand.

To sum up: the macro level is strong this week, the nickel supply is still tight, the power restriction of downstream steel mills is relaxed, and the purchase may increase. However, the price of stainless steel was weak, which dragged down the price of nickel to a certain extent. The nickel price is expected to maintain a wide shock trend in the short term.

According to the monitoring sample data of business society, as of November 5, the average price of melamine enterprises was 19633.33 yuan / ton, down 2% from Monday’s price and up 13.49% from October 5.

Melamine market fell this week. This week, the price of raw urea fell first and then rose, the cost support was insufficient, the operating load rate of melamine enterprises remained high, the export slowed down, mainly on the sidelines, the domestic trade demand was flat, there was no significant improvement, the downstream procurement enthusiasm was not high, and the market atmosphere was light.

For upstream urea, the domestic urea market rose slightly on November 5, down 3.51% compared with the quotation on Monday. Upstream coal prices have fallen slightly recently and cost support has weakened. In terms of demand, the peak of agricultural demand has passed, sporadic fertilizer supplement in some areas, industrial demand is just needed, the demand for urea in downstream compound fertilizer and rubber plate plants is good, the operating load rate of melamine enterprises remains at a high level, and most of them follow up with the appropriate amount. In terms of supply, urea enters the centralized maintenance period, and the supply decreases. On the whole, the urea cost support is weakened, the downstream demand is weakened, and the urea supply is insufficient.

Melamine analysts of business society believe that at present, the cost support is insufficient and the supply and demand support is general. It is expected that in the short term, the melamine market may focus on sorting out the weak, and more attention should be paid to the guidance of market news.

As can be seen from the trend chart, since November 2, the propane Market in Shandong has fallen and ushered in a small rebound on November 9. At present, the propane price in Shandong is mostly around 6150 yuan / ton. According to the data monitoring of business agency, the average price of propane in Shandong market was 6530.75 yuan / ton on November 2 and 6138.28 yuan / ton on November 9, with a decrease of 6.01% and an increase of 6.46% compared with October 1.

As of November 9, the mainstream prices of propane in different regions in China are as follows:

region Specifications November 9th

East China Propane,% (V / V) not less than 95 6150-6200 yuan / ton

North China Propane,% (V / V) not less than 95 6100-6200 yuan / ton

Shandong region Propane,% (V / V) not less than 95 6100-6200 yuan / ton

South China Propane,% (V / V) not less than 95 6280-6380 yuan / ton

This week, the overall focus of the domestic propane market price moved downward. At the beginning of the month, the market was not well supported. Shandong propane market only rose on the 1st, and then began to fall one after another. Until the 9th, the market was well boosted, and Shandong propane market ushered in a slight rebound. One of the main advantages is that the international crude oil rebounded sharply from the weekend, which is good for the market mentality. Secondly, the weather temperature continued to decline in November, and the demand for terminal fuel increased. In addition, the high import cost brought some support to the market, and the domestic propane Market stopped falling and rose. However, the increase in the northern market was less than that in the southern market. Due to the impact of blizzard in some areas, the transportation in the northern market was blocked, which brought some restraint to the rising market, and the propane Market in Shandong increased slightly.

Saudi Aramco announced in November 2021 that both propylene and butane increased. Propane was 870 USD / T, an increase of 70 USD / t over the previous month; Butane is 830 USD / T, up 35 USD / T compared with the previous month.

At present, the rise of international crude oil has significantly boosted the market. There is little change in the supply of propane Market in Shandong. The demand is affected by the cooling weather, and the terminal demand has increased. There is a market demand for replenishment in the downstream, and the overall transaction atmosphere of the market is mild. However, due to the impact of Blizzard, the transportation is blocked in some areas, which has brought some restraint to the rising market. It is expected that the propane market will rise slightly in the short term.

According to the monitoring data of business society, as of November 8, the average ex factory price of domestic industrial grade dimethyl carbonate was 8633 yuan / ton. Compared with the price on November 5, 2021 (the reference price of dimethyl carbonate was 10833 yuan / ton), the average price was reduced by 2200 yuan / ton, a decrease of 20.31%. Compared with November 1 (the reference price of dimethyl carbonate was 13666 yuan / ton), the average price was reduced by 5033 yuan / ton, a decrease of 36.83%.

Since the beginning of November, the domestic supply of dimethyl carbonate has been increasing. In order to actively seize the downstream new order market, the quotation of dimethyl carbonate factory has been falling all the way. However, after the factory gradually transferred profits and shipped goods, the response of downstream and terminal markets is poor, and the procurement enthusiasm has not been significantly improved. At the beginning of this week (the 8th), the domestic dimethyl carbonate market fell sharply again, and the market trend can be described as a diving decline. On the 8th, the ex factory price of dimethyl carbonate in Shandong was referred to 8200-8400 yuan / ton, which was reduced by 1000-1500 yuan / ton compared with the previous working day, and the factory volume was dominated. The ex factory price of dimethyl carbonate in Anhui is 8300-8500 yuan / ton, down 1500-2000 yuan / ton compared with the previous working day. At present, there is still room for the actual transaction in the market. At present, after the market price of dimethyl carbonate fell sharply, the on-site supply-demand game appeared. As of the 8th, according to the monitoring data of business society, the average ex factory price of domestic dimethyl carbonate was 8600 yuan / ton, which was reduced by 2200 yuan / ton, or 20.31%, compared with the 5th.

In terms of propylene glycol, according to the monitoring data of business society, as of November 8, the average ex factory price of domestic industrial propylene glycol was 21266 yuan / ton. Compared with November 5 (the reference price of propylene glycol was 21833 yuan / ton), the average price was reduced by 567 yuan / ton, a decrease of 2.60%; Compared with November 1 (propylene glycol reference price 23900 yuan / ton), the average price was reduced by 2633 yuan / ton, a decrease of 11.02%.

On October 1, the overall stalemate in the domestic propylene glycol market fell. Since February 2 and 3, the on-site supply of propylene glycol has gradually recovered, and the price support given by the tight supply in the early stage has been loosening. In addition, the market of raw material propylene oxide has also declined, and the cost support is weak. At the beginning of this week (August), propylene glycol units in some parts of China resumed operation one after another, and the on-site supply continued to increase. On August 8, the propylene glycol market fell slightly again. The ex factory price of propylene glycol in Shandong was around 21000-21600 yuan / ton. At present, the downstream demand performance is general, the wait-and-see bearish atmosphere is strong, and the overall transaction is cold. As of August 8, According to the monitoring data of business society, the average ex factory price of propylene glycol is 21266 yuan / ton, a decrease of 2.60% compared with last weekend.

In terms of upstream propylene oxide, entering November, the propylene oxide market has operated stably. Recently, the market of raw material propylene fell, the price of liquid chlorine was weak, the cost support was loose, and the subsequent maintenance plans of the main factories were kept. However, the downstream was more cautious and wait-and-see, the purchase enthusiasm was not high, the factory was under pressure and the price was high, and the market stalemate was weak. On the 8th, according to the data monitoring of the business community, the average price of propylene oxide in Shandong was 16766 yuan / ton, compared with the 5th, A decrease of 3.08%.

Future trend analysis

At present, the demand for propylene glycol and dimethyl carbonate does not perform well. In the case of strong wait-and-see sentiment in the downstream, increased supply and insufficient demand, it is expected that in the short term, there will be a lot of stock accumulation on the site. In addition, the cost support given by the downward trend of raw materials is also loose. From the perspective of comprehensive supply and demand of raw materials, the analysts of propylene glycol and dimethyl carbonate in business society believe that in the short term, Domestic propylene glycol and dimethyl carbonate are mostly weak finishing operation, which does not rule out that there are still downside risks in the market. More attention should be paid to the specific changes at the supply and demand end.

Trade name: nitrile rubber

Latest price (November 8): 24950 yuan / ton

Key points of analysis: according to the monitoring of business society, the price of domestic nitrile rubber was 24950 yuan / ton on the 8th, which was stable compared with the previous day. The inventory of nitrile rubber market is small, which supports the high price of nitrile rubber. According to the monitoring of business society, as of November 8, domestic Lanhua nitrile n41e reported 22200 yuan / ton; At present, 3305e is reported as 23100 yuan / ton; 3308e quoted 24200 yuan / ton. The offer of market traders is generally stable.

Future forecast: the market supply is tight, and there is little change in the start-up of downstream industries. It is expected that the nitrile rubber market will continue to maintain a high level in the short term.

Price rise and fall of main domestic hydrogenated benzene market from October 29 to November 4 (unit: yuan / ton)

Region. Price on October 29. Price on November 5. Weekly rise and fall

East China, 7650., 7600. – 50

Shandong Province, 7550., 7500. – 50

This week (October 29 to November 4), the market price of hydrogenated benzene in Shandong decreased, from 7650 yuan / ton last weekend to 7600 yuan / ton this weekend, down 50 yuan / ton.

Summary of price adjustment of Sinopec pure benzene in 2021 (unit: yuan / ton)

Date., adjusted price., adjusted amount

October 8, 8000., + 300

October 11, 8400., + 400

October 26, 8100. – 300

October 28, 7600. – 500

In October 2021, the listing price of Sinopec’s pure benzene was raised twice and lowered twice. As of October 28, it was 7600 yuan / ton, of which Qilu Petrochemical was 7550 yuan / ton. Others: Dongming Petrochemical quoted 7700 yuan / ton, HSBC Petrochemical quoted 7600 yuan / ton, Jincheng Petrochemical quoted 7600 yuan / ton; Weilian chemical offers 7603 yuan / ton, Xinhai Petrochemical 7600 yuan / ton and Hongrun petrochemical 7550 yuan / ton.

Crude oil prices fell during the week. On November 3, international oil prices fell sharply. The settlement price of the main contract of WTI crude oil futures in the United States was US $80.86/barrel, down US $3.05 or 3.6%, and the settlement price of Brent crude oil futures was US $81.99/barrel, down US $2.73 or 3.2%. WTI and Brent crude oil both recorded the largest closing decline since August 2. At the macro level, the Fed tightened its monetary policy expectations and reduced the scale of bond purchases. In addition, the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported yesterday that the US crude oil inventory increased more than expected last week, dragging down oil prices.

Commencement of main units downstream of benzene hydrogenation in November 2021

Recently, the overall operation of downstream units has declined, and the demand for pure benzene and hydrogenated benzene has decreased.

In terms of pure benzene, the price was weak this week, the price of styrene turned down, the market mentality of pure benzene in East China fell, the bidding price in the downstream of Shandong fell, driving the price of pure benzene down, the on-site wait-and-see increased and the negotiation was light. In terms of demand, there are many centralized maintenance of downstream units, the demand for pure benzene and hydrogenated benzene is suspended, and the market price is weak in the near future. The price decline of downstream products once again affected the market mentality of pure benzene and hydrogenated benzene. In terms of future fundamentals, there are many negative factors at present, and the sharp decline in the crude oil market affects the market mentality. From the perspective of supply and demand, the market demand will recover after the restart of downstream units in November, but it will take a certain time. It is expected that the operation of hydrogenated benzene will remain stable and weak in the short term.

The latest ex factory price of ethylene oxide in East China, North China and Northeast China is 10000 yuan / ton, that in Central China is 10200 yuan / ton, and that in South China is 9900 yuan / ton.

Upstream, ethylene supply continued to be in short supply, resulting in upward price shocks. On October 23, Chevron Phillips Chemical shut down its 850000 T / a cracking unit in Cedar bayou, Texas; On October 27, Xingxing new energy’s 300000 t / a MTO unit in Zhejiang stopped production.

In terms of ethylene oxide, it can be clearly seen from the weekly k-column chart that ethylene oxide was slightly stable in the first week of this month. It rose to varying degrees in the three weeks of service, and the latest price has reached the 10000 Yuan line. The high raw material price is the core factor, which leads to the shortage of spot in the ethylene oxide Market, which leads to the chain reaction of the contraction of the supply of downstream monomer manufacturers.

Under the influence of the environment, the prices of bulk products soared, causing fluctuations in the mentality of people in the industry, and there are generally bullish expectations. The soaring prices of crude oil and coal push up the price of ethylene, which in turn raises the production cost of ethylene oxide. Under the high cost, in order to pursue profits, the enterprises of cogeneration units chose to produce ethylene glycol with greater profit space. In addition, the high price of methanol and coal in the early stage made the enterprises of MTO units quite unbearable. They had to reduce the burden or stop the line to control the cost, resulting in a shortage of goods in the market. When the downstream learned that ethylene oxide was out of stock, they chased up and bought one after another, and even there were some irrational fluctuations in the price in the later stage. However, it is worth mentioning that since the start of construction after this year, people in the downstream market have been feeding back the low demand. The monomer manufacturers have followed the rise to support the market, which is also intended to boost the market mentality. Compared with the beginning of the month, hPEG increased by 20.95%, TPEG by 20.37%, monoethanolamine by 41.67%, diethanolamine by 46.23%, triethanolamine by 44.86% and AEO-9 by 19.05%.

At present, the profit margin of ethylene oxide is much larger than that of ethylene glycol. All subsequent cogeneration units have production adjustment plans. At present, the daily eg output of Sanjiang Petrochemical has been reduced by nearly 60%. Based on the latest ethylene CIF Northeast Asia outer disk price of 1200 US dollars / ton and the ex factory price of 10000 yuan / ton in East China, the profit of ethylene oxide is about 1600 yuan / ton. However, the downstream monomer is at the end of its strength. Today, the market price has dropped secretly, with a strong wait-and-see atmosphere. If the cost side support falls, ethylene oxide may also usher in an inflection point. We need to pay close attention to the changes of market supply.

In October, the high market price of butyl acetate in China fell, which was mainly affected by the sharp drop in the price of acetic acid in the upstream and the surge in the contradiction between supply and demand. According to the monitoring of business society, butyl acetate fell by 11.45% in the month. At the end of the month, the domestic mainstream quotation of butyl acetate was 12500-12700 yuan / ton.

First, the lower price of acetic acid in the upstream dragged down. The price of acetic acid fell in October. According to the monitoring of business society, the decline of acetic acid was 24.5%. Domestic acetic acid enterprises have more devices, stable operation and increased inventory, while the downstream is affected by limited power production, the downstream operation is low, there is no significant increase in market demand, the market purchase is still rational, and the on-site trading is light, resulting in the continuous increase of acetic acid inventory. In addition, the market source consumption is slow, and the quotation of domestic acetic acid enterprises is constantly reduced in order to maintain shipment.

In addition, the operating rate of major manufacturers is high this month, and the market supply is sufficient. However, according to the market, the air atmosphere is strong, and the manufacturer’s quotation has fallen one after another. It is reported that the reduction range of major manufacturers is about 500 yuan / ton. Traders are not active in taking goods, downstream factories are only limited to just need to buy, and the market trading is not active, which eventually leads to the gradual decline of the market offer. In addition, the price of butyl acetate produced from n-butanol, a by-product in Hebei, also hit a new low. It is reported that the low price in Shandong is close to 12000 yuan / ton.

Future forecast: in the near future, the market may remain weak due to the loose cost and supply. Due to the cool market mentality, it is expected that the demand in the later stage will be difficult to improve, and the market is expected to still have room for decline.

Price trend in October

According to the bulk list data of business society, the market price trend of cryolite continued to rise in October. The average market price at the end of the month was 7000 yuan / ton, an increase of 6.46% over the price of 6575 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month, and a year-on-year increase of 22.09%.

Analysis of industrial chain in the month

In October, the domestic cryolite market was strong and upward, the upstream raw materials were tight, the price rose, and the cryolite market kept up with the rise. Domestic enterprises adjusted the quotation according to their own shipment situation. The overall high-level operation of the market was dominated. The cryolite manufacturer’s production capacity was low, the inventory was tight, the cryolite quotation was high, the downstream was purchased on demand, and the enterprises sold according to the order, Supply and demand performance was stable. As of the 31st, the ex factory price of cryolite in Henan was 6500-8200 yuan / ton, up 1400 yuan / ton month on month; The ex factory price in Shandong was raised by 500 yuan / ton simultaneously, and the quotation was about 7200 yuan / ton. The actual transaction price was mainly negotiated.

Upstream, the domestic soda ash market was strong and upward. On October 31, the average price of soda ash was 3575 yuan / ton, an increase of 15.32% over the monthly price of 3100 yuan / ton. The price rise of soda ash is affected by the dual control policy. The supply of soda ash decreases and the price rises.

The market of downstream aluminum industry fluctuated downward in October. On October 29, the average market price of domestic aluminum ingots in East China was 20210 yuan / ton, down 11.02% from the average market price of 22713.33 yuan / ton on October 1. In the early stage, affected by the dual control of energy consumption, the production capacity was reduced, the supply was tight, and the aluminum price fluctuated and rose; In the later stage, black building materials fell sharply, the performance demand for building materials weakened, aluminum ingots were affected, and the market was weak and downward due to the accumulation of electrolytic aluminum social inventory.

Future forecast

At present, the supply of domestic cryolite market is tight, the upstream raw materials continue to be tight, and the cryolite market continues to rise. In addition, the downstream demand is OK, the enterprise quotation is strong, and there is no possibility of short-term price reduction. It is expected that the cryolite market will be stable in the later stage.

441# silicon price trend

In October, the price of metal silicon cooled down across the board. According to the data monitoring of the business society, metal silicon changed from leading the rise to leading the fall, appearing in the top ten of the decline list for many times, while in September, it was in the second place of the commodity rise and fall list. As of the 29th, the national metal silicon quotation was 41375 yuan / ton, and 441# metal silicon price has been adjusted back to within 500 million, down 31.99% month on month.

In October, low altitude news continued to interfere with the silicon market

1. The downstream demand is low: the downstream demand is reduced and the procurement is cautious. It is understood that the dual control of energy consumption has reduced the operating rate of silicone and aluminum enterprises. In addition, the current silicon price is too high, the downstream procurement is cautious, and the market trading situation is poor.

2. Increase in spot supply: Recently, silicon plants in Sichuan, Yunnan and other main production areas have resumed production, which has alleviated the tight spot supply in the market to a certain extent. The market has more supply and less demand, and the merchants have little power to support the price.

3. Traders sell at low prices: the price of metal silicon continues to decline, traders continue to take profits at a high level and sell goods held at low prices at this stage, resulting in frequent low-price transactions, increased market supply and further reduction of silicon price.

Outlook for positive factors in November

1. The dry season is coming, and the supply is insufficient: it is reported that the power supply in some areas of Xinjiang is tight, some metal silicon plants are forced to limit power, and the operating rate is low. Yunnan and Sichuan will usher in the dry season from the middle of next month, and the commencement will also be limited. At that time, the output will be reduced. Power rationing and rising electricity prices will limit the supply of metal silicon until the end of the dry season in the first half of next year.

Supply and demand relationship

Cost side: according to the price monitoring of business society, the price of primary metallurgical coke in Shanxi was 4094 yuan / ton and that of secondary metallurgical coke was 4038 yuan / ton on October 27. The spot market is relatively strong. Recently, the environmental protection policy has become stricter. Coke steel enterprises are facing a certain degree of production restriction, with weak supply and demand. At present, the raw coal price is still high, the profit of coke enterprises is low, the expectation of production restriction of coke enterprises is stricter, and the future expectation of coke supply is tight. At present, the cost of entering the furnace is high, and the price support mentality of coking enterprises is strong.

Demand side: according to the monitoring data of business society, as of October 28, the average price of organosilicon DMC market quotation in mainstream areas was 51666 yuan / ton. Compared with October 1 (organosilicon DMC reference average price of 63300 yuan / ton), the average price was reduced by 11634 yuan / ton, a decrease of 18.38%. At present, the trading atmosphere of silicone DMC is general, and the mentality of operators is frustrated. In the short term, the effective price support of silicone DMC is limited. Aluminum alloy fell, customers were in a strong wait-and-see mood, and the general inquiry list did not place an order.

4、 Future forecast

At present, the market transaction is sluggish and mainly wait-and-see. However, with the advent of the dry season in November, it is difficult for the main production areas Yunnan and Sichuan to meet the normal output. The large factories in Xinjiang reduce or stop production due to power supply restrictions, and the supply of metal silicon is about to usher in a big gap. Business analysts believe that the silicon price in November was mainly weak, but there is limited room for reduction. After the price of mainstream manufacturers is closed, the price may be corrected when making another quotation.