1、 Overview of yellow phosphorus industry
Yellow phosphorus is also called white phosphorus. White or light yellow translucent solid. Yellow phosphorus is located in the middle reaches of the whole phosphorus chemical industry chain. The downstream demand distribution of yellow phosphorus is mainly concentrated in phosphoric acid (43%) and phosphorus trichloride (37%), and is also widely used in specific applications. Yellow phosphorus is mainly used in other aspects to produce sodium hypophosphite, phosphorus pentasulfide, red phosphorus, hexametaphosphate, phosphorus pentoxide, etc., and its consumption accounts for about 15% of the total consumption of yellow phosphorus.
On December 27, the yellow phosphorus industry chain index was 201.92, down 0.5 points from yesterday, down 34.60% from the highest point of 308.75 in the cycle (2021-10-07), and up 162.13% from the lowest point of 77.03 on April 11, 2016. (Note: the period refers to the period from December 1, 2011 to now)
According to the entry conditions for Yellow Phosphorus Industry issued on January 1, 2009, if the existing yellow phosphorus plant fails to meet the requirements of these conditions in terms of raw material dust recovery, energy consumption, comprehensive utilization of tail gas, sludge phosphorus recovery, sewage treatment, safety guarantee and comprehensive utilization of phosphorus slag, relevant transformation must be completed within two years from the implementation of the entry conditions, The production can be continued only after passing the acceptance of relevant departments.
2、 Yellow phosphorus production capacity
Since the reform and opening up in 1978, after more than 40 years of rapid development, China’s yellow phosphorus industry has become the world’s largest yellow phosphorus producer, with production capacity accounting for 80% of the global production capacity. In recent years, under the national supply side reform, backward production capacity has been eliminated. At the same time, under the pressure of environmental protection supervision, yellow phosphorus production capacity and output have shown a downward trend.
China’s yellow phosphorus production capacity is distributed in the provinces with relatively concentrated phosphate rock resources and hydropower resources, mainly in Hubei, Sichuan, Guizhou and Yunnan. China has a yellow phosphorus production capacity of 1.365 million tons, of which the effective production capacity is 1.303 million tons. In terms of output, subject to the impact of yellow phosphorus tail gas treatment and the partial substitution of wet purification phosphoric acid for the downstream application of yellow phosphorus, the domestic yellow phosphorus output decreased rapidly from 881900 tons to 644900 tons from 2017 to 2019. In 2020, with the initial results of environmental protection improvement and the recovery of downstream demand, the domestic yellow phosphorus production will resume year-on-year growth, reaching 777500 tons. In 2021, the national yellow phosphorus effective capacity will be 1.37 million tons and the output will be 500000 tons (from January to September of 21).
Yunnan Province plays an important role in the production of yellow phosphorus. Its effective capacity reaches 541000 tons, accounting for 41.52% of the total effective capacity in China, ranking first in China. In 2020, the annual output of Yunnan was 386000 tons, accounting for 49.65% of the country. In the first half of 2021, the output was 129900 tons, accounting for 39.36% of the total national output.
3、 Import and export volume of yellow phosphorus
According to customs statistics, the cumulative export volume in 2019 was 922.2 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 45.82%. China’s cumulative import volume is 71.55 tons. From January to December 2020, China exported 86.4 tons of yellow phosphorus, with a year-on-year decrease of 90.63%. From January to November 2021, China exported 0 tons of yellow phosphorus. According to customs statistics, the cumulative import volume from January to December 2019 was 71.55 tons. From January to December 2020, China imported 0 tons of yellow phosphorus. From January to November 2021, China imported 344.7 tons of yellow phosphorus. At present, the general import tax rate of yellow phosphorus in China is 30%. Considering the cost of tariff and transportation, it is still not feasible to import yellow phosphorus on a large scale. It is estimated that in recent years, China’s yellow phosphorus is still mainly produced and sold by itself, and the import and export volume is small.
4、 Yellow phosphorus production process
China is a large country of yellow phosphorus production. The yellow phosphorus production process is mature. The electric furnace process is the mainstream process and the process is simple. The production of yellow phosphorus by electric furnace method is to mix the phosphate rock, silica and coke that meet the production requirements evenly according to a certain proportion, add them into the closed electric furnace, and heat the electric energy input through three-phase six electrodes to 1300 ~ 1500 ℃ for chemical reaction. P2O5 in phosphate rock is reduced to elemental phosphorus by C. The produced phosphorus vapor, CO and other gases escape from the furnace steam outlet pipe, are washed and condensed by water, and the phosphorus and Co are separated. The condensed phosphorus is refined to obtain finished yellow phosphorus, and the CO gas is purified for comprehensive utilization. The iron oxide in the charge is reduced to metallic iron, and the molten iron reacts with phosphorus to form ferrophosphorus, which is regularly discharged from the furnace hole together with calcium silicate slag.
5、 Analysis of yellow phosphorus Market in 2021
Figure: P value curve of yellow phosphorus products in 2021
According to commodity data monitoring, the price of Yunnan Guizhou yellow phosphorus rose sharply. The average price of yellow phosphorus was 16200 yuan / ton at the beginning of the year (January 1) and 41750 yuan / ton at the end of the year (December 28). The price rose sharply during the year, with a range of 157.72%.
As a small variety, the price of yellow phosphorus from January to march in the first quarter was the same as in previous years. The price fluctuated between 16200-17000 yuan / ton, and the price was relatively stable.
In the second quarter, affected by environmental factors, Yunnan large factory stopped in April, and the spot of yellow phosphorus was relatively tight. In mid April, the downstream opened the preparation before May Day, and the price of yellow phosphorus ushered in a small rising peak. The price of yellow phosphorus rose to about 17800 yuan / ton. In late May, the price of yellow phosphorus rose rapidly. Affected by drought, less water and power restriction in Yunnan, the power on of yellow phosphorus enterprises in some areas was less than 20%! Power rationing has not been alleviated, but is becoming more and more serious. The price of yellow phosphorus has risen to about 25000 yuan / ton. In June, the yellow phosphorus enterprises in Yunnan resumed production one after another. The downstream had obvious resistance to the high price of yellow phosphorus and kept the price down. The yellow phosphorus price began to decline, and the center of gravity in the field was close to the low end. The price of yellow phosphorus fell to about 19500 yuan / ton.
In the third quarter, due to power rationing in Yunnan in July, the operating rate of yellow phosphorus fell again, the price of yellow phosphorus rose again, and the quotation of yellow phosphorus rose to about 25000 yuan / ton. In August, the market price of yellow phosphorus first fell and then rose. The trading atmosphere in the later stage was good, and the average price at the end of the month was 28000 yuan / ton. According to an online document in September, Yunnan development and Reform Commission issued the notice of Yunnan provincial energy conservation leading group office on resolutely doing a good job in energy consumption double control, which mentioned that the production control of yellow phosphorus industry should be strengthened to ensure that the average monthly output of yellow phosphorus production line from September to December 2021 should not exceed 10% of the output in August 2021 (i.e. 90% reduction). Affected by this news, the downstream began to purchase yellow phosphorus at a high price, and the price of yellow phosphorus increased significantly. The market quotation of yellow phosphorus was as high as about 65000 yuan / ton. This can also be said to be the highest quotation of yellow phosphorus in history.
In the fourth quarter, there was a strong wait-and-see mood in the yellow phosphorus Market in October. The downstream procurement was more cautious and the price was reduced. The yellow phosphorus price was reduced when it was just needed, and the market quotation was about 46000 yuan / ton. In November, the price of yellow phosphorus continued to decrease, and the mainstream quotation was 36000-40000 yuan / ton. In December, the electricity price in Yunnan will rise, and the cost of yellow phosphorus enterprises will increase. The Guizhou Provincial mobilization meeting of the second central eco-environmental protection supervision group was held in Guiyang. According to the arrangement, the stationing time of the second central eco-environmental protection supervision group is one month. The arrival period (December 5, 2021 – January 5, 2022) affected the commencement of yellow phosphorus enterprises in Guizhou, and Guizhou enterprises have stopped production. Therefore, the downstream stock of yellow phosphorus is relatively active. The price rises accordingly. Up to now, the mainstream quotation of Yunnan yellow phosphorus is about 42000 yuan / ton.
5、 Future forecast
According to the yellow phosphorus analyst of the chemical branch of business society, under the power restriction and environmental protection policies in 2021, the operating rate of many production enterprises in China’s yellow phosphorus industry cannot be improved, the yellow phosphorus market is always in a state of insufficient supply, and the yellow phosphorus price continues to remain high. The price of yellow phosphorus has been adjusted at a high level for a long time. Most downstream traders are mainly on the sidelines. End customers have obvious resistance to high-end prices. They are more cautious in taking goods. They are more on the sidelines in the field and focus on sporadic procurement in the downstream, which is difficult to form a strong support for the market. With the resumption of production of yellow phosphorus enterprises in Guizhou put on the agenda, it is expected that the price of yellow phosphorus will be reduced to a certain extent in 2022.