Price trend

According to the bulk list data of business society, the domestic PA66 market generally fell in the first half of December, and the spot prices of various brands have been generally stable recently. As of December 16, the average ex factory price of PA66 adhesive injection molding sample enterprises of business society was about 37500 yuan / ton, with an increase or decrease of – 3.47% compared with the average price at the beginning of the month.

Cause analysis

Industrial chain: in the upstream, the domestic adipic acid cost continues to decline, the supply increases and the demand is low, and the market is weak. Since December, the operating rate of adipic acid has increased continuously, dragging down the market price. Adiponitrile has not improved much. The loss of production capacity of large international factories and the shortage of overseas transportation capacity are still affecting the market, and the supply shortage has not improved. Due to the high dependence on imports of adiponitrile, most domestic PA66 enterprises have operated at a low production load for a long time.

The upstream raw material adipic acid is weakly stable, the change of adiponitrile is limited, and the cost end support of PA66 is weakened. At present, there is no change in the operating rate of the industry compared with the previous period, the tight pattern of adiponitrile remains unchanged, and the operating rate of domestic PA66 industry continues to be low. The inventory of each port is insufficient. Due to the low overseas transportation capacity affected by international health events, it is in the current situation of insufficient medium and long-term arrival. In terms of demand, buyers follow up slowly with goods, there is great resistance to high price goods, the seller’s mentality is loose, and the offer is weak.

Future forecast

Business analysts believe that the spot price of PA66 is sideways this week. The shortage of adiponitrile at the raw material end has not improved, and the adipic acid market is weak and volatile. PA66 enterprise has a low overall load due to lack of raw materials, and the supply side supports the spot. However, downstream users have a deep resistance to high price goods, and the trading atmosphere on the floor is poor. It is expected that PA66 may continue to operate in a weak adjustment in the near future.

According to the data monitored by the business agency, as of December 13, the average quotation price of domestic premium DMF enterprises was 14775.00 yuan / ton, and the DMF price fluctuated upward. Compared with the same period last week, the price increased by 2.6%, with an overall increase of about 300 yuan / ton. The DMF price will rise in the short term.

The DMF market fluctuated upward, the price rose slightly, and the focus of negotiation was high. Compared with the same period last week, the price increased by 2.6%, or about 300 yuan / ton. At present, the manufacturers have strong willingness to support the price, and there is no pressure on the inventory, so as to promote the downstream follow-up procurement.

Upstream methanol: 2630 yuan / ton of methanol was negotiated in southern Shandong, and cash exchange was provided by nearby plants. The overall market was stable and above the middle, and the negotiation atmosphere was stable.

On December 12, the chemical industry index was 1108 points, which was the same as yesterday, decreased by 20.86% compared with the highest point of 1400 points in the cycle (2021-10-23), and increased by 85.28% compared with the lowest point of 598 points on April 8, 2020. (Note: cycle refers to the period since December 1, 2011)

Business agency DMF analysts believe that: in the short term, DMF is weak and finishing in a narrow range. (to know more about the latest industry market trends, welcome to pay attention to the official account of the business community, obtain commodity information, and grasp the price of commodities).

According to the monitoring data of business society, as of December 14, the average ex factory price of n-butanol in Shandong Province was 7566 yuan / ton. Compared with the price on December 13 (the reference average price of n-butanol was 7500 yuan / ton), the average price was increased by 66 yuan / ton, an increase of 0.89%. Compared with the price on December 1 (the reference average price of n-butanol was 8933 yuan / ton), the average price was decreased by 1367 yuan / ton, a decrease of 15.30%.

Since the beginning of December, the domestic n-butanol market in Shandong has opened the road of sharp decline. The downstream demand has been cautious, and the inventory of n-butanol plants has gradually accumulated. Under the condition of accumulated inventory, the pressure of factory shipment has increased, the wait-and-see mood in the downstream has become stronger, the contradiction between supply and demand has been intensified, and the offer price of n-butanol plants has been continuously reduced since the beginning of the month, After the price was lowered to a relatively low point, the low-end price transaction on the floor improved. However, the high-end price transaction was still under pressure, the overall atmosphere on the floor was still cold, and the market support was relatively weak. On December 13, the ex factory price of n-butanol in Shandong was referred to as 7400-7600 yuan / ton, and the average price was referred to as 7500 yuan / ton, a decrease of more than 16% compared with the beginning of the month.

The n-butanol market fell sharply for nearly half a month in a row, and the mentality of the operators was hurt. On December 14, the n-butanol market finally ushered in favorable support. Temporary parking was installed in the northwest, the timely supply in the yard was reduced, and the supply side support was enhanced. The downstream stock mood of n-butanol in Shandong was good, and the low replenishment orders increased. On December 14, The quoted price of some n-butanol factories in Shandong increased slightly by 100-200 yuan / ton. The ex factory price of n-butanol in Shandong was around 7600-7700 yuan / ton, and the average price was 7566 yuan / ton, with a single day increase of 0.89%. At present, the overall trading atmosphere of n-butanol in Shandong is getting warmer.

In terms of index, on December 13, the commodity index of n-butanol (industrial grade) was 61.14, down 2.72 points from yesterday, down 53.61% from the highest point 131.79 in the cycle (2021-05-16), and up 104.55% from the lowest point 29.89 on November 30, 2015. (Note: cycle refers to the period since September 1, 2011)

In terms of upstream propylene, according to the price chart of business society, Propylene last week (Shandong) the price rose slightly at the beginning of the week, but the rise was weak, and the price began to fall again. As of December 10, the propylene price in Shandong market was 7500-7550 yuan / ton. Entering this week, the main downstream polypropylene market continued to fluctuate and weaken, the supply of propylene market was sufficient, and the downstream demand support was insufficient, the contradiction between supply and demand still existed, resulting in the overall main tone of propylene market running downward, as of December On the 14th, the ex factory price of propylene in Shandong was 7437 yuan / ton, down 1.22% compared with the 6th.

Future analysis of n-butanol

According to the current situation, the adjustment of n-butanol units in some regions is good for the market and gives n-butanol some support. The n-butanol data division of business society believes that in the short term, the market focus of n-butanol in Shandong is expected to continue to adjust upward, and more attention needs to be paid to the changes of supply and demand.

According to the data of business agency, as of December 12, the average price of domestic fuel oil 180CST was 5060.00 yuan / ton (including tax), which was stable compared with that on December 6.

On December 13, the fuel oil commodity index was 102.08, down 0.4 points from yesterday, down 17.91% from the highest point 124.35 (2021-10-26) in the cycle, and up 121.53% from the lowest point 46.08 on August 15, 2016. (Note: the period refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to now)

The rising price of domestic marine oil raw materials supports the cost of fuel oil 180CST. According to the business news agency, as of December 12, the quotation of 180 CST fuel oil and 120 CST fuel oil in Zhoushan was 5300 yuan / ton, and the quotation of 5400 yuan / ton; The quotation of 180 CST self extracting low sulfur fuel oil in Shanghai is 5000 yuan / ton, and the quotation of 120 CST self extracting low sulfur fuel oil is 5100 yuan / ton.

International crude oil prices rebounded this week. At the beginning of this week, South Africa reported that the symptoms of local Omicron infection cases were mild. After that, the market was worried about undermining oil demand, and oil prices ushered in a retaliatory rebound. In addition, the Iranian nuclear negotiations are at an impasse, the possibility of Iranian oil returning to the market is reduced, and crude oil is also supported to a certain extent. Second, the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported on Wednesday that US crude oil inventories fell slightly last week, which benefited the oil market. OPEC +, an oil producing country, also acts as a ballast. OPEC + decided to continue to release 400000 barrels / day of production capacity as planned at the ministerial meeting on December 2, reflecting the confidence of the alliance led by Saudi Arabia and Russia in the future demand prospects. In addition, the organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC +) control production, it is unlikely that Iranian oil will return to the international market in the near future, the oil market remains in a tight balance, and the oil price is supported.

Singapore’s increased fuel stocks have limited support for fuel oil prices. It is understood that Singapore enterprise development authority (ESG): as of the week of December 8, Singapore’s fuel oil inventory increased by 812000 barrels, reaching a two-week high of 20.63 million barrels. Singapore’s light distillate stocks fell 319000 barrels to a one week low of 11.96 million barrels. Singapore’s medium distillate stocks fell by 601000 barrels to a one week low of 7.41 million barrels.

Future forecast: the international crude oil rises, the cost of ship fuel market is supported, and the price rises slightly, but the terminal demand is poor, the transaction is light, and the downstream procurement is cautious. The market price of fuel oil 180CST low sulfur is about 5000-5300 yuan / ton, and the market price of fuel oil 120cst low sulfur is about 5100-5400 yuan / ton. It is expected that the fuel oil 180CST market may be dominated by consolidation in the near future.

1、 Price trend

According to the bulk list data of business society, the domestic glycine market price remained stable this week, and the average price of industrial glycine remained stable at 35000 yuan / ton.

2、 Analysis and review

According to the monitoring of the business community, the glycine market operates stably. The price of industrial glycine in Hebei is 35000 yuan / ton, and that in Shandong is 35000 yuan / ton. The downstream demand is mainly just demand, and the demand is OK. The enterprise mainly completes the orders of old customers, and the new orders are limited. In terms of plant: the plant of the enterprise operates stably, the production is stable, and about 80% of the overall construction starts in the site.

Downstream products: the mainstream quotation of glyphosate technical drug this week is around 8000-85000 yuan / ton. The on-site inventory remains low, the demand does not decrease, and the price has a strong upward trend. At the same time, under the condition of high production threshold, it is difficult to have new production capacity put into operation. The industry has strong bullish expectations for the future market, and the glyphosate price remains high this week.

3、 Future forecast

Glycine analysts of business society believe that the current demand for glycine is supported, the price remains high, and the short-term market is mainly stable.

1、 Price trend

According to the bulk data list of business society, the average price of domestic phosphoric acid on December 10 was 11000 yuan / ton, an increase of 500 yuan compared with 10500 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week, an increase of 4.76% during the week and 120.74% compared with the same period last year.

2、 Market analysis

This week, the phosphoric acid market is stable and rising, and the enterprise offer is tentatively rising, but the wait-and-see mentality is strong. Recently, with the increase of electricity price in various regions and the shortage of phosphate rock supply, the price of yellow phosphorus has increased to 45000, and the raw material has increased, resulting in the rise of phosphoric acid market. The quotation of enterprises has begun to increase slightly. For example, the industry and trade in South Yunnan has increased to 12500 yuan / ton, some enterprises still have inventory, and the price has not been adjusted. Near the end of the year, the market trading is still tepid, and there is a certain pressure on the sales of phosphoric acid holders, Therefore, the rising mood is not high and is more cautious. According to the monitoring of the business community, the current quotation in Sichuan is 10000-10500 yuan / ton, that in Yunnan is about 12500 yuan / ton, that in Hubei is 11500-12000 yuan / ton, that in Shandong is 10500-11500 yuan / ton, and that in Shanghai is 10500-12000 yuan / ton. The price of phosphoric acid in various places has risen steadily this month.

According to the weekly rise and fall from September 13, 2021 to December 5, 2021, it can be seen that in the early stage of the phosphoric acid cycle, it was the main player, which decreased in the weeks of October 18 and November 1, and then maintained a steady rise trend. In December, supported by the cost, phosphoric acid started to rise slightly, with an increase of 4.76% this week.

region product Specifications date Price (yuan / ton)

Sichuan region phosphoric acid 85% industrial grade December 10th 10000-10500

Jiangsu region phosphoric acid 85% industrial grade December 10th 9500-10500

Shanghai area phosphoric acid 85% industrial grade December 3rd 10500-12000

Hubei region phosphoric acid 85% industrial grade December 3rd 11500-12000

Shandong region phosphoric acid 85% industrial grade December 3rd 10500-11500

For phosphate rock, at present, the overall phosphate rock market continues to operate stably, the downstream demand is normal, and more new orders are supplied to old contract customers. Therefore, phosphate rock analysts of business society believe that most of the domestic phosphate rock market will continue to operate at a high level and stably in the near future, and more attention needs to be paid to the news changes of supply and demand.

Yellow phosphorus, the domestic yellow phosphorus market price was temporarily stable on December 9. The overall market trading was ok, the downstream inquiry increased, and the procurement was more active. With the increase of electricity price in various regions, the supply of phosphate rock is tight and the cost of enterprises increases. The price of yellow phosphorus enterprises gradually moves closer to the high end. It is expected that the price of yellow phosphorus will mainly rise in the short term.

3、 Future forecast

Phosphoric acid analysts of the chemical branch of business society believe that at present, with the increase of raw materials, the phosphoric acid market rises slightly, but the market trading is general, and the offer of cargo holders is more cautious. Some enterprises are closed and wait-and-see. It is expected that the phosphoric acid may continue to rise slightly with the cost in the short term.

1、 Price trend

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, on December 9, the average price of salicylic acid (industrial grade) mainstream manufacturers was 16666.67 yuan / ton, flat compared with the beginning of the week, and the price increased by 20.48% compared with the same period last year.

2、 Market analysis

The salicylic acid market has been stable for the time being this week, and the market is generally stable. A few enterprises have increased slightly by about 500 yuan / ton, and large orders have made some profits. Recently, the market continues to be stable, the price of raw phenol is stable, and the market offer is large, stable and small. The negotiation reference is 9050-9100 yuan / ton. The cost side support is acceptable, the downstream demand is good, the trading is active, the enterprise has little shipping pressure, and the focus moves up slightly. Up to now, the quotation of domestic salicylic acid industrial enterprises is mostly in the range of 14900-19200 yuan / ton, the quotation of pharmaceutical grade is mostly in the range of 24000-27000 yuan / ton, and the quotation of sublimation grade is mostly in the range of 19500-23000 yuan / ton.

In terms of raw materials, the transactions in the East China market in the domestic mainstream region are general, with little change in fundamentals. The market offer is large, stable and small, and the negotiation reference is 9050-9100 yuan / ton. The market negotiation atmosphere is relatively flat, but the shipment pressure of East China’s cargo carriers is not large. First, the port inventory pressure is not large, and the domestic Factory Yangzhou Shiyou plant is shut down for maintenance, and the cargo carriers operate at a high price. However, the enthusiasm of downstream inquiry is general, just need to submit an offer, and the trading follow-up is limited.

3、 Future forecast

The salicylic acid analyst of business agency believes that the salicylic acid market continues to be large, stable and small during the week, and it is mostly adjusted in a narrow range according to its own shipment. It is expected that the salicylic acid market will continue to maintain a stable trend in the short term.

1、 Price trend

According to the bulk data list of business society, the average price of domestic phosphoric acid on December 3 was 10500 yuan / ton, which was flat compared with that at the beginning of the week, up 109.3% compared with the same period last year.

2、 Market analysis

This week, the phosphoric acid market continued to be stable with little price fluctuation. The price of yellow phosphorus as raw material was strong. The phosphoric acid market remained stable and wait-and-see. It was shipped at a stable price, mainly for old customers. At present, the downstream is still just in need of purchase, buy as you use, and the demand side support is OK. The phosphoric acid manufacturer has a stable start, abundant output, stable supply and demand, temporarily stable price and stable short-term market. According to the monitoring of the business agency, the current quotation in Sichuan is 9800-10500 yuan / ton, that in Yunnan is about 11000-11500 yuan / ton, that in Hubei is 10000-11000 yuan / ton, that in Shandong is 10000-11500 yuan / ton, and that in Shanghai is 10500-11000 yuan / ton. The price of phosphoric acid in various places has been generally stable this week.

region product Specifications date Price (yuan / ton)

Sichuan region phosphoric acid 85% industrial grade December 3rd 9800-10500

Yunnan region phosphoric acid 85% industrial grade December 3rd 11000-11500

Shanghai area phosphoric acid 85% industrial grade December 3rd 10500-11000

Hubei region phosphoric acid 85% industrial grade December 3rd 10000-11000

Shandong region phosphoric acid 85% industrial grade December 3rd 10000-11500

Phosphate rock, at present, the short-term supply tension in the domestic phosphate rock market has not improved much, the supply side continues to support the market, and the downstream demand remains just below the demand. Phosphate rock analysts of business society believe that in the near future, most of the domestic phosphate rock market will continue to operate at a high level, and more attention needs to be paid to the news changes in the supply and demand side.

For yellow phosphorus, the price of yellow phosphorus was lowered in November. At the beginning of the month, the price of yellow phosphorus was lowered too fast, and the price was slightly corrected in the middle of the month. After that, the yellow phosphorus market has been in a wait-and-see state, and the downstream procurement is more cautious and just needs to take the goods. Traders are more wait-and-see, the price is gradually stable, the price is firm and upward near the end of the month, the manufacturer has good confidence, obvious push up mentality, and the price is close to the high end. Up to now, the mainstream quotation of yellow phosphorus in Yunnan is about 36000-40000 yuan / ton; The mainstream quotation in Sichuan is about 38000-40000 yuan / ton; The mainstream quotation in Guizhou is about 35600-38000 yuan / ton.

3、 Future forecast

According to the phosphoric acid analyst of the chemical branch of the business society, the phosphoric acid market is temporarily stable this week, and the price has not fluctuated greatly. The operators have a calm mind and watch carefully the price trend of raw materials. It is expected that the stable operation probability of the phosphoric acid market is high when the supply and demand is stable.

The domestic aggregate MDI market continued to decline, and the monthly listing prices of major manufacturers were successively announced, all of which were reduced; The weekly guideline price of Shanghai factory has also been reduced, but the supply of goods is scarce. Mainstream dealers offer according to the market and negotiate shipment; End customers in the distribution market are approaching the end of the year, focusing on just needed procurement; Recently, the epidemic situation has been repeated, and the downstream industries affected in some regions have been suspended. Short term aggregate MDI market atmosphere is weak.

According to the sample data monitored by the business community, from November 26 to December 3, the market price of domestic aggregated MDI fell from 19600 yuan / ton to 19060 yuan / ton, with a decrease of 2.76% in the cycle, 8.66% month on month and 1.37% year-on-year.

Summary of domestic aggregate MDI market as of December 3:

Region, Wanhua goods, Shanghai goods

North China and Shandong 18700-18800 yuan / ton 18000-18100 yuan / ton

East China 18700-18800 yuan / ton 18000 yuan / ton

South China 18800 yuan / ton 18000 yuan / ton

Summary of domestic aggregated MDI traders as of December 3:

enterprise ., Model, price

Nanjing Tanqing Trading Co., Ltd Each model 19500 yuan / ton

Guangzhou Boshun Chemical Co., Ltd Shanghai Material 18800 yuan / ton

Shandong Bosu New Material Co., Ltd Wanhua material 19000 yuan / ton

Shandong Bosu New Material Co., Ltd Shanghai Material 18800 yuan / ton

Linyi Shijia Trading Co., Ltd Wanhua material 19000 yuan / ton

Affected by the newly discovered new crown variant strain, crude oil prices continued to fall, lack of confidence in the external market, and prices fell. The price of crude oil and styrene fell, and the price of pure benzene continued to fall this week.

Comparison chart of pure benzene (upstream raw material) – polymerized MDI price trend of business society:

Aniline: the price of aniline stabilized after falling this week. On November 26, the price of aniline in Shandong was 11000-11240 yuan / ton and that in Nanjing was 11200-11300 yuan / ton; On December 3, the price in Shandong was 9200-9380 yuan / ton; The price of aniline in Nanjing was 9300-10300 yuan / ton, down 16.82% from last week, up 16.88% from the beginning of the year and up 20.7% from the same period last year.

Comparison chart of aniline (upstream raw material) – polymerized MDI price trend of business society:

In terms of enterprises, Yantai Wanhua 1.1 million T / a plant operates normally; Ningbo Wanhua 1.5 million T / a plant phase I stopped on November 27 for 45 days; Phase II will stop on December 11 for 45 days. The 600000 T / a unit of Shanghai keschuang operates normally; The 380000 T / a unit of Shanghai Huntsman operates normally; Shanghai BASF 220000 T / a unit operates normally; Chongqing BASF 400000 T / a unit operates normally, and East Cao Ruian 80000 T / a unit operates normally.

In the future, business community aggregation MDI analysts expect that the domestic aggregation MDI market is depressed and mainly sorted out.

This week, the lead market (11.26-12.3) fluctuated downward. The average price of the domestic market was 15256 yuan / ton last weekend and 15168.75 yuan / ton this weekend, down 0.57% this week.

The commodity price K-bar chart uses the concept of K-line of price trend to reflect the weekly or monthly price changes in the form of bar chart. Investors can buy, sell and invest according to the changes of K-bar chart. Red means: rising; Green means: falling; The height of K column indicates the range of rise and fall. As shown in the figure above, the price of lead was weak and volatile in November.

On the whole, most electrolytic lead manufacturers at the supply side have resumed production, and the start-up of recycled lead enterprises has decreased slightly due to environmental protection factors recently. The downstream storage enterprises at the demand side started relatively stably, and their procurement enthusiasm was acceptable. There was no significant change compared with the previous period, and they still focused on maintaining rigid demand procurement. Under the weak balance of supply and demand, the price of lead may follow the trend of futures and fluctuate weakly.

According to the price monitoring of the business society, there are 9 commodities in the list of commodity prices rising and falling in the 48th week of 2021 (11.29-12.3). The top 3 commodities are magnesium (3.64%), metal praseodymium (2.68%) and cobalt (2.02%). A total of 10 commodities decreased month on month, and 1 commodity decreased by more than 5%, accounting for 4.5% of the monitored commodities in this sector; The products with the top three declines were silicon (- 11.45%), silver (- 3.84%) and copper (- 1.24%). The average rise and fall this week was – 0.32%.

The demand brought by the sprint of storage enterprises for the annual task basically offset the output growth brought by the resumption of production manufacturers. There are many negative factors in the recent fundamentals. Under the weak balance between supply and demand, the price of lead or the trend of futures is weak and volatile.