Price trend

According to the bulk list data of business society, the domestic POM market strengthened in early January, and the spot price rose. As of January 13, the average offer price of POM injection molding sample enterprises of business society was about 20800 yuan / ton, with an increase or decrease of + 0.65% compared with the average price at the beginning of the month.

Cause analysis

Industrial chain: in the upstream, the recent formaldehyde market has fallen weakly. The raw material methanol market rose in a narrow range, as the inventory of upstream enterprises decreased after new year’s day, the market atmosphere improved, and the mentality of people in the industry was supported. However, due to the impact of environmental protection control, the operating rate of downstream plate plants has decreased, the demand is poor, and it is difficult for formaldehyde manufacturers to ship. It is expected that the price of formaldehyde in Shandong will mainly fall in the near future.

The upstream formaldehyde continues to be weak, and the cost side support of POM is general. In terms of industry load, the operating rate of domestic POM enterprises decreased slightly at the beginning of the month. Although Yuntianhua maintenance is about to start, the market supply is still tight, and it is reported that some enterprises still have the intention to reduce the negative. There is no inventory pressure for enterprises. In the case of insufficient imports in the domestic market, the tight supply pattern continues. Due to the continuation of the strong support from the supply side, the offer of merchants is generally high. The market price of 24000 yuan / ton is common and higher. The seller’s operation tends to be firm and reluctant to sell. The spot price is high, the wait-and-see atmosphere in the downstream is strong, the situation of buyers chasing up is poor, and the on-site trading is relatively light. The ex factory reference price of shenhuaning coal mc90 is about 20500 yuan / ton, and the cash is withdrawn by itself. Tianye Chemical and Yuntianhua sealed the plate.

Future forecast

Business analysts believe that: in early January, the domestic POM market continued to rise, the upstream formaldehyde market was weak, and the cost support of POM was general. The on-site supply continues to be tight due to the insufficient equipment maintenance and import of domestic enterprises, and the reluctant selling operation of merchants increases. At present, the downstream is more resistant to the high price supply. In addition, there are terminal enterprises entering the holiday one after another, and there are few transactions on the floor. It is expected that the spot price of POM may continue to rise.

According to the monitoring data of business agency, as of January 12, 2022, the average ex factory price of domestic butanone market was 12200 yuan / ton. Compared with the price on January 9 (butanone reference price of 12333 yuan / ton), the average price was reduced by 133 yuan / ton, a decrease of 1.08%. Compared with the price on January 1 (butanone reference price of 11533 yuan / ton), the average price was increased by 667 yuan / ton, an increase of 5.78%.

It can be seen from the data monitoring chart of business society that in January 2022, the domestic butanone market continued to rise in a narrow range after the festival, and the tight spot supply on the floor continued to support the high and strong offer of butanone industry. This week, the downstream demand gradually weakened, the goods were prepared cautiously, the wait-and-see mood became stronger, and the market trading showed a stalemate. On the 10th, the butanone market continued to rise, weak and stable. 11. On the 12th, due to demand constraints, the operators’ mentality was unstable, and the domestic butanone market fluctuated downward. The butanone factory in Shandong reduced the ex factory price of butanone by 200 yuan / ton, the ex factory price of butanone to around 12000 yuan / ton, the price of butanone in Jiangsu decreased by 200-300 yuan / ton, and the ex factory quotation of butanone was around 12300-12500 yuan / ton. As of the 12th, the domestic butanone market had weakened as a whole. The ex factory price of butanone was around 12000-125000 yuan / ton, and the average price was 12200 yuan / ton, a decrease of 1.08% during the week.

In terms of index, the butanone commodity index on January 11 was 133.33, down 0.73 points from yesterday, down 0.54% from the highest point of 134.06 points in the cycle (2022-01-10), and up 164.23% from the lowest point of 50.46 points on March 3, 2016. (Note: the period refers to the period from November 1, 2012 to now)

Upstream, in January, the domestic liquefied gas market ushered in a collective rise. Shandong region generally pushed up sharply, with an obvious range. As of January 10, the price of civil gas in Shandong rose to above 5500 yuan / ton. The good start of the market is mainly driven by international crude oil. The continuous rise of international crude oil after new year’s day has brought obvious support to the liquefied gas market. In addition, Saudi Aramco’s CP price was introduced in January. Although propylene butane fell, the decline was less than expected, which also gave a certain boost to the domestic market. In addition, there is a certain replenishment demand in the downstream after the festival, the enthusiasm for entering the market is high, the manufacturers ship smoothly, the inventory is mostly at a low level, and the prices rise one after another.

Future analysis of butanone

At present, the downstream demand of the domestic butanone market is relatively calm, with more transactions and single discussions. The butanone data division of the business society believes that in the short term, China’s butanone market is mostly sorted and operated in a narrow range, and more attention needs to be paid to the travel needs of raw materials and the follow-up situation.

According to the monitoring data of business society, as of January 11, 2022, the average price of organosilicon DMC market quotation in mainstream areas was 29300 yuan / ton. Compared with the price on January 1, 2022 (organosilicon DMC reference price of 25800 yuan / ton), the average price increased by 3500 yuan / ton, or 13.57%. Compared with December 20, 2021 (the reference price of silicone DMC is 23900 yuan / ton), the average price is increased by 5400 yuan / ton, an increase of 22.59%.

It can be seen from the data monitoring chart of business society that at the end of 2021, the domestic silicone DMC market has steadily warmed up after the sharp decline in the early stage. In 2022, after the new year’s day in January, the silicone DMC market continued to rise steadily. On the first day after the Festival (January 4), a large factory in Shandong took the lead in raising the ex factory price of silicone DMC, The increase range was 1600 yuan / ton. The ex factory price of organosilicon DMC in this factory rose to 27600 yuan / ton. Most of the other factories made stable quotations, and the sealing plate in the field began to increase. On the 5th, other mainstream monomer factories also raised the ex factory price of organosilicon DMC by 300-800 yuan / ton. The ex factory price of organosilicon DMC was near 26500-27600 yuan / ton, facing the continuous rise after the festival, The operators are reluctant to sell, receive orders in limited quantities, and the downstream replenishment atmosphere is good. The on-site prices continue to be high and operate firmly. On the 10th, the organosilicon DMC market once again ushered in a general rise. The ex factory price of organosilicon DMC was around 28000-30000 yuan / ton, and the price returned to the 30000 era. At present, as of the 11th, the spot supply of organosilicon DMC continues to be tight, the factory sells more in Limited quantities, approaching the time point of goods preparation before the festival, the downstream procurement is active, the inquiry increases, and the trading atmosphere on the site is good.

In terms of index, the silicone DMC commodity index on January 10 was 151.03, up 12.68 points from yesterday, down 54.12% from the highest point of 329.21 in the cycle (2021-10-10), and up 114.53% from the lowest point of 70.40 on July 27, 2016. (Note: the period refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to now)

In terms of upstream metal silicon, the price of 44# metal silicon was weak on the 10th. The average price in the domestic market was 20940 yuan / ton, down 1.32% since the beginning of the year. The metal silicon market was getting worse and worse. Near the Spring Festival, traders were ready for a holiday, manufacturers’ production willingness was poor, and furnace shutdown continued to increase. At the same time, the demand for metal silicon at the downstream terminal continued to shrink, and the demand for aluminum alloy was weak, The downstream enterprises of organic silicon have started to prepare goods one after another, and the demand has increased.

Future trend forecast of silicone DMC Market

At present, the on-site supply of organosilicon DMC is still tight and reluctant to sell. Good pre-sale orders in the early stage give strong support to the organosilicon DMC factory. The factory mainly offers high and stable prices, and the enthusiasm of downstream demand for goods preparation has not decreased. The organosilicon DMC Data Engineer of business society believes that the domestic organosilicon DMC market mainly operates high and stable in a short period of time, More attention should be paid to the trend changes of supply and demand.

1、 Price trend

According to the data monitored by the business agency (the average ex factory price of calcium carbide SG5), on January 7, the average mainstream price of PVC in China was 8340 yuan / ton, an increase of 20 yuan / ton compared with 8320 yuan / ton before the festival, an increase of 0.24%, and an increase of 17.26% compared with the same period last year.

2、 Market analysis

In the first week after the festival, the PVC market fluctuated in a narrow range, and the price increased by 0.24% during the week. At the beginning of last week, the disk fluctuated strongly, and the PVC futures price rose, driving the spot market to rise slightly. However, most enterprises adjusted within 50 yuan / ton, and some enterprises did not adjust the price. In the middle and late weeks of the week, the futures stopped rising and turned down, and the PVC spot price fell slightly. In addition, the downstream has maintained just needed procurement and bargain hunting, and the market trading atmosphere has improved slightly. Approaching the Spring Festival holiday, the downstream product industry has been on holiday, the demand continues to weaken, and there is no good news in the market. Therefore, the short-term inflection point is unknown, and the PVC fundamentals continue to be weak. As of the end of last week, the quotation range of domestic pvc5 electric stone enterprises was mostly around 8200-8850 yuan / ton. The pvc5 electric stone delivered in Tianjin was 8400-8450 yuan / ton, the mainstream price of PVC ordinary electric stone in Guangzhou was 8500-8600 yuan / ton, and the range of pvc5 electric stone in Changzhou was 8450-8500 yuan / ton; Domestic market prices fluctuate little.

According to the weekly increase and decrease from October 18, 2021 to January 9, 2022, the domestic PVC mainly decreased in the cycle, with the largest decrease of 17.43% in the week of October 25. Since November, the price fluctuation is small, and the range is within 3%. In the cycle, there is less bullish and more decline, and the market is weak.

For the external price, CFR China maintains US $1330 / ton, CFR Southeast Asia maintains US $1340 / ton, and CFR India maintains US $1550 / ton.

International crude oil prices fell on January 7. The settlement price of the main contract of us WTI crude oil futures was US $78.90/barrel, down US $0.56 or 0.7%, and the settlement price of the main contract of Brent crude oil futures was US $81.75/barrel, down US $0.24 or 0.3%. The US employment data is not ideal, the expected cooling of demand has overshadowed supply side concerns such as Libya’s production reduction, and the oil price is under pressure.

Ethylene, on January 7, the US ethylene market, FD US Gulf quoted us $871-889 / ton. Recently, the US ethylene market fell and the demand was general. On January 7, according to the European ethylene market, FD northwest Europe quoted us $1557-1567 / ton, up US $2 / ton, and CIF northwest Europe quoted us $1441-1449 / ton, up US $6 / ton. On January 7, in the Asian ethylene market, CFR Northeast Asia quoted us $971-981 / ton, down US $45 / ton, and CFR Southeast Asia quoted us $961-971 / ton, down US $40 / ton. Affected by the decline of upstream crude oil price, the ethylene market may mainly fall below in the later stage.

On January 10, the reference price of calcium carbide was 4583.33, a decrease of 0.72% compared with January 1 (4616.67). The price of raw material blue carbon was adjusted at a low level, and the cost support of calcium carbide was weakened. Meanwhile, the downstream PVC market has continued to decline recently, and the downstream customers’ enthusiasm for calcium carbide procurement has weakened. On the whole, the upstream support of calcium carbide was insufficient, the downstream demand was general, and the price of calcium carbide fell slightly. In the future, it is expected that the factory price of calcium carbide in Northwest China may fluctuate slightly

3、 Future forecast

PVC analysts of business society believe that the current cost support is OK, but near the Spring Festival, the downstream demand continues to weaken, the inventory of PVC enterprises increases, and there is a certain pressure on sales. It is expected that PVC will continue to maintain a weak trend in the short term.

Price trend

According to the price monitoring of business agency, the price trend of cryolite in Henan was stable this week. On January 7, the average market price in Henan was 7300.00 yuan / ton, an increase of 0.34% month on month and 22.18% year-on-year.

quotations analysis

The domestic cryolite market continues to be high and strong, the quotation of enterprises in Henan and Shandong is stable within the week, and the supply of raw materials tends to be stable in terms of cost. At present, the high price of cryolite is mainly due to the influence of northern winter heating and the reduction of manufacturers’ limited production. Individual enterprises have high quotation of cryolite due to the high price of raw hydrogen fluoride and cost pressure. As of January 7, the ex factory quotation of cryolite in Shandong is 7000-7600 yuan / ton, and that in Henan is 6700-8700 yuan / ton.

The market price of upstream soda ash decreased significantly this week. As of January 7, the average market price was about 2250 yuan / ton, and the price decreased by 450 yuan / ton during the week, a decrease of 16.67%. The soda ash started stably this week, the output increased during the week, and the downstream demand after the new year’s Day festival was average. It just needed to be purchased. In order to maintain the reduction of delivery quotation, the market trading atmosphere was weak.

In the downstream, the aluminum market first fell and then rose. On January 7, the aluminum price was 21063.33 yuan / ton, an increase of 3.40% during the week compared with the price of 20370.00 yuan / ton at the end of last week. The European energy crisis and the rise of electricity price led to the reduction of production of more aluminum plants in Europe, which led to the recovery of domestic aluminum demand, good de stocking of society, improvement of supply and demand, rise of aluminum price and upward consolidation of the market.

Future forecast

The quotation of domestic cryolite enterprises remains stable at a high level. Northern Enterprises limit production and reduce production due to the impact of winter heating. In addition, the rise of downstream aluminum price is good for the market. The mentality of field operators is optimistic. It is expected that the short-term cryolite trend will continue to wait and see at a high level, and pay specific attention to the downstream demand.

According to the monitoring data of business agency, as of January 6, the average ex factory price of n-butanol in Shandong was 9533 yuan / ton. Compared with the price on January 3 (the reference average price of n-butanol was 8300 yuan / ton), the average price increased by 1233 yuan / ton, or 18.88%.

It can be seen from the data monitoring chart of the business agency that after the new year’s day, the domestic n-butanol market in Shandong ushered in a sharp rise. The spot inventory on the site was low, the supply was tight, the downstream demand performed well, and the trading atmosphere was positive. On the 4th, the transaction focus of the n-butanol market rose steadily. The ex factory price of n-butanol in Shandong was referred to 8500 yuan / ton, and the average daily price was increased by 200 yuan / ton, The increase was 2.41%. On the 5th, the n-butanol market increased greatly. Affected by the parking of devices in some areas, the supply in the site continued to tighten. The quotation of mainstream n-butanol plants in Shandong increased significantly, and the high price has risen to around 10000 yuan / ton, with the maximum increase of 1700 yuan / ton in two days. On the 6th, the n-butanol market continued to gather upward, and the low-end price in the venue decreased. The ex factory price of n-butanol in Shandong was around 9600-10000 yuan / ton, and the average price was 9866 yuan / ton. Compared with that before the festival, the three-day increase had reached 18.88%.

In terms of index, on December 22, the commodity index of n-butanol (industrial grade) was 64.40, the same as yesterday, down 51.13% from the highest point 131.79 in the cycle (2021-05-16), and up 115.46% from the lowest point 29.89 on November 30, 2015. (Note: the period refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to now)

In terms of upstream propylene, the market price of propylene in Shandong rose steadily from the 4th after the festival. As of the 6th, the cumulative increase after the festival was 4%. The oil price rose strongly, the cost side was boosted, and the propylene price increased in line with the trend. The downstream demand is general, and the rise of propylene is blocked in the off-season. On January 5, the propylene commodity index was 63.27, up 1.06 points from yesterday, down 37.26% from the highest point of 100.85 points in the cycle (September 7, 2011), and up 93.31% from the lowest point of 32.73 points on September 29, 2015. (Note: the period refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to now)

Future analysis of n-butanol

At present, the supply side of the n-butanol market remains tight in the short term, the supply side gives market support, and the downstream demand is stable. The n-butanol datagrapher of business society believes that recently, the n-butanol market in Shandong continues to operate at a high level, and more attention needs to be paid to the changes of supply and demand.

According to the monitoring data of business agency, the reference of the average ex factory price of n-butanol in Shandong at the beginning of the year was 9266 yuan / ton, and the reference of the average ex factory price at the end of the year was 8233 yuan / ton, with an overall decline of 11.15% in the whole year.

In 2021, the domestic n-butanol market in Shandong fluctuated frequently. The n-butanol market rose sharply and fell sharply throughout the year, which is generally classified as a sharp rise in the first half of the year and a fall back in the second half of the year. The highest price of n-butanol in the whole year appeared in the first half of 2021. According to the monitoring data of the business society, on May 15, 2021, the ex factory price of n-butanol in Shandong Province was 16166 yuan / ton, and the price exceeded 16000 yuan, which was the highest price of n-butanol in the whole year of 2021. It can be seen from the annual price comparison chart of the business society that the price also reached a new high of n-butanol in ten years. The lowest price of n-butanol in the whole year appeared in the second half of 2021. According to the monitoring data of business society, on December 13, 2021, the ex factory price of n-butanol in Shandong was 7500 yuan / ton, which was the lowest price of n-butanol in the whole year in 2021, and the maximum amplitude of the whole year was 113.19%.

According to the monthly rise and fall chart of n-butanol in Shandong from January 2020 to November 2021, the price of n-butanol rose and fell each other in 2021. In the first quarter, the market of n-butanol in February created the largest increase month of the whole year, with a single month increase of 78.13%. In the second quarter, the market of n-butanol continued to rise. In the third quarter, the n-butanol market in September created the largest decline month in the whole year, with a monthly decline of 33.62%. In the fourth quarter, the n-butanol market continued to be weak and fell, and the price once fell to 7500 yuan / ton. At the end of the year, the n-butanol market returned to calm as a whole.

Review of domestic n-butanol market in 2021

In the first quarter, the price of n-butanol rose more or fell less. In January, the downstream goods preparation before the new year’s day has ended, the downstream demand has weakened, the Spring Festival holiday has not arrived, and a new round of goods preparation has not been started. There is a strong wait-and-see mood in the venue, and the price of n-butanol has declined as a whole, with a decrease of 10% in January. In February, before the Spring Festival, the downstream butyl demand was good, the goods were actively prepared, the supply of n-butanol was tight, and the quotation was strong. After the festival, the n-butanol market rose sharply, and the upstream and downstream transmission was smooth. At the end of the month, the average ex factory price of n-butanol was 15200 yuan / ton, an increase of 78% in February. In March, the “high level is difficult to keep”, the downstream cost is under heavy pressure, the demand is cold, and the n-butanol market continues to decline, with a decline of 23.13% in March. The overall increase of n-butanol in the first quarter was 25.54%.

In the second quarter, n-butanol rose sharply, with an increase of 33% in the second quarter. In April, the n-butanol market stopped falling and rebounded, the low-end price transactions in the market improved, the small and medium-sized orders increased, the spot transactions of factories were smooth, and the center of gravity continued to move upward. In April, n-butanol increased by 18.18%. In May, after the labor day, the market of n-butanol continued to rise. On May 15, the average ex factory price of n-butanol in Shandong was 16166 yuan / ton, and the price in South China exceeded 16600 yuan / ton, setting a record high in ten years. Under the high price, the downstream pressure increased sharply, the wait-and-see was strong, and the demand weakened. After the sharp rise of n-butanol market, it fell sharply, with an overall increase of 8.21% in May. In June, the n-butanol market gradually warmed up, the inventory was low, the factory quotation continued to rise, the demand side performed well, and the on-site trading atmosphere returned to temperature. In June, n-butanol increased by 6.04%.

In the third quarter, in July and August, the n-butanol market fluctuated frequently, the market support was still good, and the price continued to run upward as a whole. Under the frequent fluctuation of n-butanol market price, the low-end price did not fall by 14500 yuan / ton. In July and August, the price of n-butanol remained 14600-15600 yuan / ton, with a cumulative increase of 5.62% in July and August. In September, the policy of limiting production and power supply in all provinces was implemented. The downstream operation of n-butanol was insufficient, the demand was greatly reduced, and the market price of n-butanol fell sharply. At the end of September, the average ex factory price of n-butanol fell below 10000 yuan / ton, with a monthly decline of 33.19%.

In the fourth quarter, after the National Day in October, the n-butanol market recovered steadily, the downstream operating rate increased, the on-site trading atmosphere was active, and the factory quotation began to rise widely. In the middle of the year, the high price of n-butanol in Shandong exceeded 13000 yuan / ton. However, the downstream butyl users slowed down their procurement, the market wait-and-see atmosphere rose again, and the n-butanol market fell rapidly, In October, the n-butanol market experienced a sharp rise and fall, with an overall increase of 0.65%. In November, the downstream demand for n-butanol continued to be weak, and the factory offer price continued to adjust downward. In November, n-butanol decreased by 15.72%. In December, due to the lack of effective support, the decline of n-butanol intensified. On December 13, the price of n-butanol fell to the annual low, with an average price of 7500 yuan / ton as reference. Then, the downstream phased goods preparation increased, and the n-butanol market ushered in a small-scale recovery. As of December 31, the ex factory average price of n-butanol was 8233 yuan / ton as reference, with a decrease of 7.84% in December.

Summary and forecast

At the beginning of 2021, driven by the rise of chemical bulk products, the domestic n-butanol market rose sharply at the beginning of the year. Then, in the middle of the year, the market as a whole maintained a high level. In September and October of the second half of the year, the implementation of the Limited power production policy, the commencement of downstream plants of n-butanol decreased significantly, the demand for n-butanol was blocked, and the market price opened a downward channel. At the end of the year, Restrained by the cold demand, the market price of n-butanol fell to the freezing point of the whole year, and the lower and lower reaches of the low price have improved. At the end of December, the n-butanol market has slightly warmed up. It is expected that the domestic n-butanol market will continue to operate upward after the new year’s day in 2022, and maintain a bullish trend in the short term. After the Spring Festival, the market situation may be different from this year or show a downward trend, We still need to pay more attention to the specific changes in supply and demand.

According to the data monitoring of business agency, the market price of ammonium chloride fell in December. The price at the beginning of the month was about 1170 yuan / ton, and the price at the end of the month was about 1095 yuan / ton, down 6.41%. The construction of Lianhe alkali enterprise is around 70%, and the supply side is stable.

In December, the price of raw liquid ammonia fell slightly, and the support for ammonium chloride was weak. According to the monitoring of business agency, as of December 31, the price of domestic liquid ammonia was 4410 yuan / ton, down 2.29% from 4513 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month.

After the sharp drop in November, urea prices rebounded slightly in December, with little support for ammonium chloride. As of December 31, the domestic urea price was 2552 yuan / ton, up 1.92% from 2504 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month

In December, the downstream compound fertilizer industry of ammonium chloride started around 30 ~ 40%, and the transaction of ammonium chloride market was light.

Future forecast: the ammonium chloride analyst of business society believes that the current demand and cost of ammonium chloride are slightly weak, and the start-up strength and quantity of demand side are not large. It is expected that the ammonium chloride market may continue to be weak in the later stage.

Domestic price trend:

It can be seen from the p-xylene trend chart that the price trend of p-xylene in December was temporarily stable. By the end of the month, the domestic ex factory price of p-xylene was 6700 yuan / ton, which was the same as that at the beginning of the month, with a year-on-year increase of 42.55%. The price trend of domestic PX market was stable in December.

In December, the domestic p-xylene supply was normal, and the domestic PX operating rate was more than 60%. The 600000 ton unit of Sinochem Hongrun petrochemical, Yangzi Petrochemical, Pengzhou petrochemical, Yangzi Petrochemical, Jinling Petrochemical, Qingdao Lidong and Qilu Petrochemical operated stably, The start-up of Urumqi petrochemical plant is about 50%, and the domestic p-xylene supply is general, but the start-up of overseas plants is general, and the price trend of domestic p-xylene is temporarily stable. In December, the international crude oil price rose, and the PX external price rose. As of the 30th, the closing prices were US $874-876 / T FOB Korea and US $892-894 / T CFR China. Recently, the operating rate of PX units in Asia is normal. On the whole, the operating rate of p-xylene units in Asia is less than 60%, the supply of PX goods in Asia is general, the closing price of PX in the external market is rising, and the domestic market price of p-xylene is temporarily stable.

In December, the international crude oil price rose sharply, with crude oil rising by 16.33%. WTI stood above US $75 again and reached a nearly one month high. The rapid spread of Omicron variant virus, but the symptoms seem to be milder than those of the previous variant; The market hopes that Omicron will weaken its impact on global demand in 2022 and oil prices will be supported. The main reason is that Saudi Arabia believes that oil supply is still very scarce. In addition, although the epidemic trend is still serious, the symptoms of omiron infected people are relatively mild, which brings some optimism to the market. In a report on Monday, JPMorgan said that Omicron would not have any significant impact on the growth prospects. US stocks were boosted and rose, which was also good for oil prices. In addition, a preliminary survey released on Monday showed that U.S. crude oil inventories may decline for the fifth consecutive week last week, while gasoline inventories are expected to remain generally stable. Iranian Foreign Minister Abdullah Hyan said through the media on the 27th that the parties concerned with the comprehensive agreement on Iran’s nuclear issue began the eighth round of us Iran resumption of performance negotiations in the Austrian capital Vienna on the same day, and will focus on a “new common draft”, which focuses on the “unrestricted” sale of Iranian petroleum oil, and the sale funds will be deposited into Iran’s bank account in foreign currency. However, at present, it is still difficult to promote the negotiations. As of December 30, the settlement price of the main contract of WTI crude oil futures in the United States was reported as USD 76.99/barrel, and the settlement price of the main contract of Brent crude oil futures was reported as USD 79.53/barrel. On the whole, the international crude oil price rose sharply in December, and the price trend of p-xylene was temporarily stable.

In December, the downstream PTA market price rose sharply. As of No. 31, the average PTA market price was 4900-5000 yuan / ton, an increase of 10.25% in December. In December, PTA went out of stock as a whole, and there were a lot of plant maintenance and production reduction. At the beginning of the month, the operating rate of PTA industry was around 75%. With the short stop of 6 million ton plant of yishanhua in the middle of the month, the operating rate quickly fell to 61%, and then restarted one after another, rising to 80%. At present, the market supply is still sufficient. Most of the offers of downstream polyester plants are hard demand, and the overall trading atmosphere is light. The start-up of the downstream polyester industry in December remained around 80%, and the change was not too great. Due to the weak terminal demand, the polyester market mainly fell. With the boost of the cost side, there was a slight rebound at the end of the month, and the monthly decline of each product was around 2%. With the Spring Festival approaching, the comprehensive starting rate of looms in Jiangsu and Zhejiang fell from 67% at the beginning of the month to 60%. The overall demand was not followed up enough, and the actual trading volume slowed down, mainly consuming the early-stage inventory. The downstream PTA market price rose sharply, which was good for the domestic p-xylene market, and the p-xylene market price trend was temporarily stable.

Chen Ling, PX analyst of business society, believes that there is a certain positive support for the current crude oil cost. In addition, polyester manufacturers in the downstream of the terminal market have reduced production. As the Spring Festival approaches, the number of terminal orders decreases and some factories have holidays, the demand is still insufficient. However, PTA starts to maintain a high level, and the demand for PX can be supported by crude oil, It is expected that the market price of p-xylene may rise in the later period.

1、 Price data

According to the bulk list data of business society, the price of petroleum coke of local refiners continued to rise this week. The average market price in Shandong was 2801.25 yuan / ton on December 31, up 3.13% from 2716.25 yuan / ton on December 27.

On December 31, the commodity index of petroleum coke was 217.88, up 0.98 points from yesterday, down 16.90% from the highest point 262.19 in the cycle (2021-09-29), and up 225.73% from the lowest point 66.89 on March 28, 2016. (Note: the period refers to the period from September 30, 2012 to now)

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

This week, the refinery delivered well and the transaction was positive. The inventory of some refineries was low and the price continued to rise.

Upstream: the international crude oil price rose this week, and the Omicron mutant virus spread rapidly, but the symptoms seem to be milder than the previous variants; The market hopes that Omicron will weaken its impact on global demand in 2022 and oil prices will be supported. The main reason is that Saudi Arabia believes that oil supply is still very scarce. In addition, although the epidemic trend is still serious, the symptoms of omiron infected people are relatively mild, which brings some optimism to the market.

Downstream: the price of calcined coke remained stable as a whole this week, with an upward trend; The market price of metal silicon continued to decline; The price of downstream electrolytic aluminum rose. As of December 31, the price was 20370.00 yuan / ton.

Petroleum coke analysts of business society believe that the recent local refining manufacturers have good shipments and rising prices. At present, the downstream pre Festival procurement and low inventory in the local refining market. It is expected that the price of petroleum coke may continue to rise in the near future.