According to the data of business agency, on February 25, the average price of silver market in early trading was 4952.67 yuan / kg, down 1.45% daily, up 3.33% from the average price of 4793 yuan / kg in spot market before the holiday (January 31).

On February 25, the spot market price of gold was 389.30 yuan / g, down 0.68% on the day, up 4.36% from the spot market price of 373.05 yuan / g before the holiday (January 31).

Comparison of price trends of precious metal gold and silver in recent 1 year

 
In the long term, the price trend of precious metals has a good convergence and the trend is basically the same.

Price trend of precious metals and crude oil

War emergency sentiment subsided and precious metal prices retreated

The conflict between Russia and Ukraine intensified, and the war triggered a sharp decline in global stock markets, pushing up oil prices and prompting investors to buy Precious Metal Gold for safe haven.

The war triggered huge fluctuations in market sentiment, and the precious metals gold and silver rose sharply; With the development of the war situation, the United States and NATO “online support” did not put out the fire and only stayed on the new sanctions. Biden made it clear that he would not fight with Russia in Ukraine. The uncertainty of the war in Ukraine was weakened, the market panic was reduced, and the price of precious metals was corrected after soaring.

Short term formation of uplink channel

The recent impact factors of precious metal news are mainly divided into two lines; First, the conflict between Russia and Ukraine is constantly fermenting, and there should be more risk aversion; Second, US inflation soared, and the expectation of raising interest rates suppressed the interest free assets of precious metals.

In the short term, the impact factors of the expected interest rate increase have weakened. The risk aversion caused by the conflict between Russia and Ukraine dominates the recent price market. At present, the upward channel is formed in the short term.

Future forecast

In the long run, the monetary easing policy is gradually ebbing, and the expectation of interest rate hike suppresses the continuous rise of precious metal prices. In the short term, precious metals are likely to continue to rise, but there is an upper limit.

According to the price monitoring of business agency, the domestic PTA market rose significantly on February 24. The average market price in East China was 5685 yuan / ton, up 3.98% from the previous trading day and 23.20% year-on-year. PTA futures 2205 closed at 5794, up 292, or 5.31%.

Affected by the sudden tension in Ukraine, the price of Brent crude oil futures in London broke through $100 a barrel on the 24th, the first time in more than seven years. On the 23rd, London Brent crude oil futures for April delivery closed at US $96.84 a barrel. The last time Brent crude oil futures in London was above $100 a barrel was in September 2014.

Statistics of recent changes in domestic PTA units

manufacturing enterprise Unit capacity (10000 t / a) Device change

Yisheng Ningbo two hundred It was overhauled on February 10. It was originally planned to restart on February 24, but now it is postponed to restart in March.

Yisheng new materials three hundred and thirty From February 9 to the end of February, the load was reduced to 50%.

three hundred and thirty The construction started in late February increased to 80%.

Yisheng Dalian two hundred and twenty-five On February 24, it was overhauled for about two weeks.

three hundred and seventy-five It is planned to be overhauled in May.

Zhongtai petrochemical one hundred and twenty About 80% of the construction started in early February.

Yangzi Petrochemical sixty-five Maintenance on March 25 and February.

Dushan energy two hundred and twenty Minor repair, to be determined.

Zhuhai Yinglishi one hundred and twenty-five It is planned to overhaul on March 26 and restart on April 10.

Yisheng Hainan two hundred It is planned to be overhauled in April.

In terms of plant, the 2.25 million ton PTA plant of Yisheng Dalian was overhauled for about two weeks on February 24. Another 3.75 million ton PTA unit is planned to be overhauled in May. Ineos (Zhuhai) 1.25 million ton PTA plant is scheduled to be overhauled on March 26 and restarted on April 10. Yangzi Petrochemical 650000 T / a PTA unit is scheduled to start maintenance on March 25 and restart on May 15. Yisheng Hainan 2 million ton PTA plant is planned to be overhauled in April. Dushan energy’s 2.2 million ton PTA unit is planned to be repaired in a short time, and the specific time is uncertain. Under the low processing cost, the overhaul is expected to rise, and the current operating rate of the domestic industry is around 79%.

At present, PTA is still dominated by the cost side. Some market analysts believe that there are concerns that the outbreak of conflict between Russia and Ukraine and its impact on global energy supply will stimulate the surge of crude oil prices. In addition, if it has been in the background of low processing costs, the probability of joint load reduction and pressure reduction of domestic PTA major manufacturers is too high. At the same time, with the gradual recovery of downstream polyester market and terminal loom industry, the demand side will also improve. The business agency expects the short-term PTA price to remain upward.

1、 Price trend

According to the data monitoring of business agency: on February 23, the average price of domestic LNG was 8090 yuan / ton, up 4223 yuan / ton from 3866.67 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month, up 109.22% within the month and 173.31% compared with the same period last year.

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

In February, the domestic LNG market rose sharply, with an increase of more than 100% in the month. The price rose rapidly from about 3800 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month to about 8000 yuan / ton at the end of the month. Shandong, Henan and other places broke through the 9000 yuan mark, and the market focus moved up rapidly. The price of this month is mainly due to the market recovery after the Spring Festival, coupled with the boost of cold air, and the increase of urban fuel demand. At the same time, in order to protect the people’s livelihood, the market has more limited gas limits, some liquid plants shut down, the market supply is reduced, the inventory of liquid plants is generally not high, and the price rises. Moreover, the increase of feed gas this month has accelerated the rise of domestic liquid price under the support of cost, with an increase of about 173% compared with the same period last year. As the price continues to rise, the downstream resistance is becoming more and more obvious, and the trading activity is declining. The increase has narrowed and stabilized near the end of the month. At present, 7800-8200 yuan / ton in Inner Mongolia, 7950-8500 yuan / ton in Shaanxi, 7500-8500 yuan / ton in Shanxi, 7850-8100 yuan / ton in Ningxia, 8500-8900 yuan / ton in Hebei and 8550-9000 yuan / ton in Henan. The terminal price is about 6300-9400 yuan / ton. The spot CIF price of LNG in China is US $23.69/million British heat, and the price is reduced.

According to the weekly rise and fall from November 29, 2021 to February 20, 2022, the domestic LNG cycle rose and fell with each other, with a decline of 15.97% on December 6, and then rose for nearly a month. It began to fall in January. After the Spring Festival, the price rose sharply, with an increase of 37.41% in the week of February 7, and then maintained an upward trend.

region Specifications February 23rd February 1st Rise and fall

Inner Mongolia liquified natural gas 7800-8200 2950-4200 + 4850/+4000

Shaanxi liquified natural gas 7950-8500 2980-3780 + 4970/+4720

Shanxi liquified natural gas 7500-8500 2980-3850 + 4520/+4650

Ningxia liquified natural gas 7850-8100 3800-4380 + 4050/+3720

Henan liquified natural gas 8550-9000 4350-4900 + 4200/+4100

Hebei liquified natural gas 8500-8900 4800-4950 + 3700/+3950

Downstream products rose more or fell less:

Methanol, according to the monitoring data of business society, the average price of domestic methanol production enterprises was 2597 yuan / ton on February 22. The trading atmosphere in the domestic methanol market is temporary, the traders are relatively active, and the downstream is mostly purchased on demand. The international oil price is strong, the linkage of PP, plastics and other commodities is strengthened, and methanol futures are mainly sorted out. In the short term, the methanol market may operate firmly, and some may rise.

Liquid ammonia, on the 23rd, Shandong liquid ammonia market remained stable, and the market price changed little compared with yesterday. The market inventory pressure eased slightly and increased, and the downstream inquiry was normal. Today, the quotation of most large factories in Shandong is stable, the ammonia release of manufacturers is reduced, the supply is slightly tightened, and the shipment is lower than that of last week. At present, the market demand is acceptable, most dealers follow the market, the downstream procurement is normal, and the market inventory continues to go. Today, the mainstream price in the region is 4150-4350 yuan / ton. It is expected that the market will be stable in the near future.

On February 22, the reference price of urea was 2664.00, an increase of 0.76% compared with February 1 (2644.00). The upstream coal price fell slightly, the LNG price was adjusted at a high level, and the cost support was general. From the perspective of demand: agricultural demand is wait-and-see, and industrial demand is enhanced. With the advent of spring ploughing, domestic fertilizer use has entered the peak season, but the national development and Reform Commission emphasizes the work of ensuring the supply and stabilizing the price of chemical fertilizer. The price of urea has fallen slightly recently. Affected by the rise or fall of buying, dealers are not active in taking goods, and there is a strong wait-and-see atmosphere. After the Winter Olympics, the compound fertilizer plant and plate plant will gradually resume work, and the bargain hunting will be followed up. After a sharp rise in the market price of melamine in the downstream, it fell slightly, weakening the enthusiasm for urea procurement. From the perspective of supply: at present, the daily output of urea is more than 150000 tons, and the supply is sufficient. On the whole, the cost of urea is generally supported, the downstream demand is enhanced, the urea supply is sufficient, and the slight rise of urea in the future is dominated.

3、 Future forecast

The LNG analyst of business agency believes that: the demand increased and the supply decreased in February. Supported by the superimposed cost, the domestic LNG market is much higher than that in the same period last year. At present, the rise is basically in place. With the rise of temperature and the limited downstream receiving capacity, the domestic liquid market will return to rationality.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring data of business agency, the average ex factory price of domestic chlorinated paraffin 52 was 6307 yuan / ton on February 14 and 6025 yuan / ton on February 21. The price of chlorinated paraffin 52 fell by 0.21% this week.

2、 Market analysis

This week, 52 chlorinated paraffins were adjusted sporadically, the market fluctuated slightly, and the overall operation was stable. Manufacturers in various regions adjust their prices slightly according to the situation. The cost side support is good, and the downstream demand follow-up is general. As of February 21, the ex factory quotation of chlorinated paraffin 52 in Anhui is about 6300 yuan / ton, that in Shaanxi is about 6700 yuan / ton, that in Northeast is about 5750 yuan / ton, and that in Shandong is 5000-5200 yuan / ton.

In terms of raw liquid wax, the price trend of domestic liquid wax this week is upward, the production and sales of refineries are balanced, the trading atmosphere is good, and the stable operation is mainly in the short term. In terms of raw liquid chlorine, the domestic liquid chlorine price rose steadily this week, the market trend is optimistic, and the transaction is OK. The price of liquid chlorine may continue to rise in the short term.

3、 Future forecast

Analysts of chlorinated paraffin in business society believe that the current raw material market is gradually strengthening, and the cost side is favorable support. The downstream demand is waiting to be released, the manufacturer’s inventory is low, and some parts rise sporadically. It is expected that in the short term, the chlorinated paraffin will fluctuate in a narrow range and run smoothly.

1、 Price data

According to the bulk list data of business society, the price of petroleum coke of local refining manufacturers decreased slightly this week. The average price of Shandong market on February 20 was 4066.25 yuan / ton, down 0.31% from 4078.75 yuan / ton on February 14.

On February 20, the commodity index of petroleum coke was 316.26, unchanged from yesterday, down 0.31% from the highest point of 317.24 in the cycle (2022-02-17), and up 372.81% from the lowest point of 66.89 on March 28, 2016. (Note: the period refers to the period from September 30, 2012 to now)

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

The refinery shipped well this week and the price fluctuated at a high level. At present, the early-stage contracts of most refineries have been implemented, the price of petroleum coke is high, the downstream receiving is cautious, and the local refining inventory has increased at present.

Upstream: crude oil prices remained high this week, mainly driven by the risk expectation of supply interruption. Under the background that OPEC + and its allies failed to increase production as expected, the tension between Russia and Ukraine heated up the expectation of crude oil supply interruption. In addition, in the post epidemic era, the global economy continues to recover, and the growth expectation of fuel demand also supports oil prices.

Downstream: the price of calcined coke rose this week; The market price of metallic silicon rose slightly; The price of downstream electrolytic aluminum rose. As of February 20, the price was 22726.67 yuan / ton.

The petroleum coke analyst of business society believes that at present, most of the early-stage contracts of refineries have been implemented, the petroleum coke price is high, and the downstream receiving is cautious. With the end of the Winter Olympic Games, carbon enterprises may start construction one after another, and the downstream demand will increase. It is expected that the petroleum coke price may be mainly high in the near future.

Acetic anhydride prices fell sharply this week

According to the data monitoring of business agency, the price of acetic anhydride fell sharply this week. As of February 18, the price of acetic anhydride was 7950 yuan / ton, down 10.67% from 8900 yuan / ton on February 11 last weekend. The actual transaction price fell below 8000 yuan / ton, touching the cost of some manufacturers.

The price of raw material acetic acid fell

As can be seen from the price trend chart of acetic acid in business society, the price of acetic acid fell sharply this week, down 8.65%. The price of acetic acid fell sharply this week, the market of acetic acid fell, the cost of acetic anhydride fell, and the downward pressure of acetic anhydride increased.

Outlook

According to the acetic anhydride data analyst of business society, the price of acetic acid fell sharply this week, the price of methanol fell, the cost of acetic anhydride fell, the market of acetic anhydride fell sharply, and the price of acetic anhydride approached the cost line. In the future, the demand for acetic anhydride is insufficient, the supply is sufficient, and the falling space of acetic anhydride is limited. It is expected that the market of acetic anhydride will stabilize after a slight decline in the future.

The price of industrial grade and battery grade lithium carbonate rose continuously this week. On February 17, the average price of industrial grade lithium carbonate in East China was 399000 yuan / ton, which was 6.51% higher than that in early Zhou (the average price of industrial grade lithium carbonate in East China was 374600 yuan / ton on February 13). On February 17, the average price of battery grade lithium carbonate in East China was 422000 yuan / ton, which was 6.57% higher than that in early Zhou (the average price of battery grade lithium carbonate in East China was 396000 yuan / ton on February 13). As of February 17, the comprehensive quotation of industrial grade lithium carbonate market is around 403000 ~ 430000 yuan / ton, and the comprehensive quotation of battery grade lithium carbonate market is around 420000 ~ 465000 yuan / ton.

According to the observation of market changes, the price of lithium carbonate continued to rise significantly this week, the supply and demand of lithium ore and lithium salt in the market is still tight, and the gap of domestic lithium carbonate is still obvious. In terms of supply, the market was affected by the maintenance of lithium salt enterprises. In February, the supply remained low, and the development of output growth was relatively slow. In terms of demand, the production and sales of domestic new energy vehicles continued to exceed expectations, driving the release of production and sales of cathode materials, especially the output of lithium iron phosphate remained strong.

The downstream lithium hydroxide Market is rising. At present, the upstream lithium carbonate market continues to rise, and the cost boost is obvious. Some manufacturers may overhaul in late February, and the supply side is expected to reduce. In addition, the demand side is positive, and the market is running firmly.

The price of lithium iron phosphate in the downstream is temporarily stable. At present, the manufacturer has tight supply, insufficient supply, high negotiation focus, and fair market negotiation atmosphere. The price of raw materials in the upstream is high, and the price is high. The lithium iron phosphate Market has certain support, and the overall market is strong.

Lithium carbonate analysts of business society believe that the current tense situation of global lithium mine supply and demand is difficult to alleviate in the short term, and domestic demand continues to rise. The demand for replenishment by downstream enterprises is still. With the increase of operating rate, the demand continues to rise. It is expected that the short-term lithium carbonate price will continue to operate at a high level.

According to the monitoring data of business agency, as of February 11, 2022, the average price of organosilicon DMC market quotation in mainstream areas was 31420 yuan / ton. Compared with the price on February 1, 2022 (organosilicon DMC reference price 31660 yuan / ton), the average price was reduced by 140 yuan / ton, a decrease of 0.76%.

It can be seen from the data monitoring chart of business society that after the Spring Festival in 2022, the domestic silicone DMC market as a whole is weak and mainly operates to maintain stability. On the first day of construction after the festival (the 7th day), the domestic large organosilicon DMC factory in Shandong reduced the ex factory price of organosilicon DMC by 600 yuan / ton. The quotation of organosilicon DMC of the factory after the festival was around 31000 yuan / ton. Most other factories maintained the quotation before the festival, and there was no significant change in the market. However, the price reduction of large manufacturers has brought a trace of uneasiness to the post holiday market. In addition, the downstream demand is gradually opening. The overall trading atmosphere of silicone DMC is general, and the market situation continues to be weak. As of February 11, the ex factory price of domestic silicone DMC was around 31000-31800 yuan / ton. In the first week after the festival, the overall market fell slightly and operated steadily.

According to the business agency, the following is the current price of organosilicon DMC in some parts of China (for reference only, unit: yuan / ton)

region February 1st February 11th Rise and fall

Shandong region thirty-one thousand and six hundred thirty-one thousand – six hundred

East China thirty-one thousand and five hundred thirty-one thousand and five hundred 0

Northwest China thirty-one thousand and five hundred thirty-one thousand and five hundred 0

In terms of upstream metal silicon, the price of 44# metal silicon remained stable on the 10th, with an average price of 20840 yuan / ton in the domestic market, up 0.24% from before the festival. At present, most quotations are tentatively raised, and the market trend of returning after the festival is not clear. 441# silicon is 20800-20900 yuan / ton. From the perspective of supply, Southwest China is in the dry season, and most silicon plants are still in the shutdown stage. At present, the electricity price is rising, the overall production cost is rising, and the social inventory of metal silicon is reduced. From the perspective of demand, the overall price of silicone DMC remains stable. The reference quotation is around 31000-31500 yuan / ton, and the procurement demand has not been fully opened; The aluminum alloy ingot Market rose slightly, giving certain support to metal silicon.

Silicone DMC market outlook forecast

After the Spring Festival holiday, the domestic market of organic silicon DMC has gradually recovered, and the main demand for downstream stocks is just as needed. The organosilicon DMC data division of the business community believes that in the short term, the downstream demand of domestic organic silicon DMC market has been opened up, and the market is stable and stable.

Price trend

According to the price monitoring of business agency, the price trend of cryolite in Henan Province fell first and then rose this week. On February 11, the average market price in Henan Province was 7300.00 yuan / ton, unchanged from the beginning of the week and flat month on month.

quotations analysis

The domestic cryolite market was stable temporarily, and the quotations of enterprises in Henan and Shandong were stable during the week. The cost of cryolite and the supply of raw materials are basically stable. The enterprises in the north are affected by heating, and the operation is low. The price of cryolite is mainly strong. The operators in the field hold a wait-and-see attitude towards the future market. As of February 11, the ex factory quotation of cryolite in Shandong is 7000-7600 yuan / ton, and that in Henan is 6700-8700 yuan / ton.

The price trend of upstream soda ash was strong this week. As of February 11, the average market price was about 2325 yuan / ton, with an increase of 4.49% during the week. Soda ash was sorted upward this week, and manufacturers actively shipped after the festival, with a strong price increase mentality.

Downstream, the aluminum market fluctuated and rose. On February 11, the aluminum price was 22946.67 yuan / ton, an increase of 6.26% during the week. During the Spring Festival, the export demand of electrolytic aluminum increased and the social destocking was obvious. Affected by the Winter Olympic Games, the northern aluminum plant reduced production, favorable supply and demand, and the aluminum price was sorted up.

Future forecast

The domestic cryolite market is operating firmly. The downstream needs to be purchased after the festival. The on-site cargo holders have a wait-and-see mentality. The operating rate of cryolite enterprises is OK, and there is no pressure on inventory. It is expected that the short-term cryolite trend will continue to operate at a high level, with specific attention to the downstream demand.

According to the data of business agency, as of February 13, the average price of domestic fuel oil 180CST was 5640.00 yuan / ton (including tax), up 2.55% from 5500.00 yuan / ton on February 7.

On February 13, the fuel oil commodity index was 114.23, unchanged from yesterday, down 8.14% from the highest point of 124.35 in the cycle (2021-10-26), and up 147.89% from the lowest point of 46.08 on August 15, 2016. (Note: the period refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to now)

The shortage of domestic marine oil raw materials and the rising price support the cost of fuel oil 180CST. According to the business news agency, as of February 13, the self raised low sulfur quotation of 180 CST fuel oil and 120 CST fuel oil in Zhoushan area was 5900 yuan / ton, and the self raised low sulfur quotation of 120 CST fuel oil was 6000 yuan / ton; The quotation of 180 CST self extracting low sulfur fuel oil in Shanghai is 5650 yuan / ton, and the quotation of 120 CST self extracting low sulfur fuel oil is 5750 yuan / ton.

Tensions between Russia and Ukraine have escalated, adding to concerns about tight global energy supplies. In addition, the International Energy Agency (IEA) warned that unless OPEC’s major oil producing countries in the Middle East increase production, the global oil price may rise further, because it is difficult for the OPEC alliance to resume production for a “long time”, and the crude oil price has risen to a seven-year high of more than $90 a barrel. Due to the rebound in demand after the epidemic, the global supply lags behind, and the oil inventory is at the lowest level in seven years, Crude oil prices rose. The situation in Ukraine and Russia is tense, and multiple factors affect the rise of international oil prices.

Singapore’s fuel oil inventory decreased, which supported fuel oil prices. It is understood that the Singapore enterprise development authority (ESG): as of the week of February 9, Singapore’s fuel inventory decreased by 929000 barrels to a three-week low of 22.156 million barrels; Singapore’s medium distillate oil inventory decreased by 774000 barrels to a four week low of 7.436 million barrels; Singapore’s light distillate stocks fell 1.428 million barrels to a two-week low of 14.302 million barrels.

Future forecast: the high international crude oil price supports the ship fuel market. The price of raw materials and refined oil in the ship fuel market rises, and the tight supply boosts the fuel oil price. However, the terminal demand is light, the purchasing sentiment is general, and it is mainly wait-and-see. The market price of fuel oil 180CST low sulfur is about 5600-5900 yuan / ton, and the market price of fuel oil 120cst low sulfur is about 5650-5950 yuan / ton. It is a single discussion. It is expected that the fuel oil 180CST market may continue to rise in the near future.