1、 Price trend:

According to the bulk list data of business society, the domestic market of PA6 fell after rising in March, and the spot prices of various brands rose first and then fell. As of March 30, the mainstream offer price of the sample enterprises for China viscosity 2.75-2.85 was about 15833.33 yuan / ton, up or down by + 0.21% compared with the average price at the beginning of the month.

2、 Analysis of influencing factors:

Industrial chain: upstream, the price of caprolactam fluctuated sharply in March. In the second week of this month, the sharp rise of international crude oil led to the increase of pure benzene price, the cost side of caprolactam was strongly supported, and petrochemical plants raised the price of caprolactam. After the crude oil fell back in the middle of the year, it resumed its rise in the latter half of the year, but there were great differences among market participants and the positive transmission was poor. At the end of the month, there was less supply in the market, the bad news weakened, and caprolactam stopped falling and rebounded. It is suggested to pay attention to the trend of raw material market and changes in supply.

In March, the upstream caprolactam price recovered slightly after falling, and the cost side support of PA6 strengthened from weak. The operating rate of domestic PA6 polymerization plant is generally stable at more than 70% this month. On the cost side, the international crude oil price fluctuation caused by the situation in Russia and Ukraine benefited the PA6 industrial chain in the first half, and rose again after the international crude oil price fell in the second half. After that, the operators were more worried about the market uncertainty and weakened the support effect on the cost side of PA6. The supply side of PA6 continues the previous abundant pattern, the demand of downstream enterprises just needs to be stable, and the on-site trading situation this month is general. The low-end supply of goods in the whole month is acceptable, the inventory position of enterprises and sellers is not high, and the mentality is strong. The logistics obstruction in many places caused by health events in the month has not ended, which also affects the trading of some PA6. At present, PA6 is porous and intertwined, and the market situation is biased towards cost side guidance.

3、 Future forecast:

Business analysts believe that: in March, the spot price of PA6 rebounded after rising, the trend of caprolactam recovered narrowly after falling, and the cost side of PA6 supported the fluctuation. Downstream enterprises tend to buy on bargain hunting and just need to take goods to maintain production. It is expected that the trend of PA6 market may be weak in the short term.

According to the data monitoring of business agency, the average ex factory price of LLDPE (7042) in East China was 8890.00 yuan / ton on March 21 and 8990.00 yuan / ton on March 28, with an increase of 1.12% and 0.90% compared with February 1.

According to the data monitoring of business agency, the average ex factory price of LDPE (2426h) in East China was 11566.67 yuan / ton on March 21 and 11750.00 yuan / ton on March 28, with an increase of 1.58% and a decrease of 2.99% compared with February 1.

According to the data monitoring of business agency, the average ex factory price of HDPE (5000S) in East China was 9616.67 yuan / ton on March 21 and 9716.67 yuan / ton on March 28, with an increase of 1.04% and 8.36% compared with February 1.

This week, the overall PE spot market showed a phased upward trend, and the three varieties increased to varying degrees, but the overall fluctuation was limited. International crude oil rose during the week, bringing obvious support to the market in terms of cost. In some areas of petrochemical enterprises, the ex factory price is increased by a narrow margin, and the downstream maintains replenishment on demand. The market trading atmosphere is general, but the upstream mentality is strong, and the price is mainly adjusted with the increase.

During the week, Liansu futures market surged, bringing positive support to the spot market. On March 28, the opening price of polyethylene futures 2205 was 9100, the highest price was 9275, the lowest price was 9075, the closing price was 9219, the former settlement price was 9098, the settlement price was 9182, up 121, or 1.33%, the trading volume was 433467, the position was 280180, and the daily position was increased by 1019. (quotation unit: yuan / ton)

At present, the international crude oil decline has brought limited support to the market. In terms of supply, the PE market has decreased, and the downstream demand is relatively weak. Multidimensional holding makes up on demand and general enthusiasm for entering the market. It is expected that the price of PE spot market may fall in the short term.

According to the data monitoring of business agency, the average price of acetic acid in East China was 5150 yuan / ton on March 25, an increase of 5.10% during the week compared with 4900 yuan / ton at the end of last week. As of March 25, the market price of acetic acid in various regions rose and fell as follows:

Region, March 19th ., March 25th ., Price rise and fall

South China, 4800 yuan / ton, 5050 yuan / ton ., two hundred and fifty

North China, 4700 yuan / ton, 4900 yuan / ton, two hundred

Shandong Province, 4600 yuan / ton, 4850 yuan / ton, two hundred and fifty

Jiangsu Province, 4550 yuan / ton, 4900 yuan / ton, three hundred and fifty

Zhejiang Province, 4650 yuan / ton, 5000 yuan / ton, three hundred and fifty

During the week, the acetic acid market was sorted upward, and the manufacturer’s quotation continued to rise. At the beginning of the week, acetic acid manufacturers in East China stopped for maintenance. The operators were optimistic and intended to increase. During the week, the downstream demand was stable, the manufacturers shipped smoothly, there was no pressure on the inventory, the market supply was reduced, and when the market trend was good, the acetic acid manufacturers actively negotiated shipment, and the quotation was constantly adjusted.

The market of upstream methanol rose first and then fell this week. The overall rise was dominated. The rebound of crude oil and the continuous low level of social inventory contributed to the rise of this round of methanol market. From March 18 to 25, the average price of domestic methanol production enterprises rose from 2787 yuan / ton to 3025 yuan / ton. During the cycle, the price rose by 8.52%, the price rose by 14.04% month on month and 29.83% year-on-year.

Downstream, the market of ethyl acetate rose sharply. On March 25, the price of ethyl acetate in East China was about 8570 yuan / ton, an increase of 7.05% in the week. In terms of enterprise start-up, the main large factories in Shandong maintained normal start-up, with good trading within the week, driving the market atmosphere higher. Some manufacturers in South China reduced their production load, resulting in poor shipment of some factories due to the superposition of epidemic diseases. Most of the market offers were high, and the cost led to the increase of ethyl acetate price.

According to the acetic acid analyst of business society, at present, there are more maintenance manufacturers in the acetic acid market, the enthusiasm of downstream purchasing increases, the pressure of enterprise inventory decreases, the transportation is blocked in East and North China affected by the epidemic, the market supply is tight, and the traders intend to increase, the market outlook may continue to be adjusted upward, and pay attention to the situation of enterprise devices.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring data of business agency, the price of caustic soda is running well this week. At the beginning of the week, the average price of Shandong market is 1038 yuan / ton, and at the end of the week, the average price of Shandong market is about 1082 yuan / ton. The price increases by 4.24%, and the price increases by 120.82% compared with the same period last year. On March 24, the caustic soda commodity index was 155.68, up 2.87 points from yesterday, down 41.36% from the highest point 265.47 in the cycle (2021-10-27), and up 139.10% from the lowest point 65.11 on October 9, 2020. (Note: the period refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to now)

2、 Market analysis

Caustic soda prices are running better this week. At present, the average market price in Shandong is about 900-1120 yuan / ton. The mainstream ex factory quotation of 32% liquid alkali in Hebei is about 1100-1250 yuan / ton. Some caustic soda enterprises have little inventory pressure in the near future, and the downstream demand is OK.

According to the price monitoring of the business society, in the price rise and fall list of chlor alkali industry in the 11th week of 2022 (3.14-3.18), there were 3 kinds of commodities rising, 1 kind of commodity falling and 1 kind of commodity rising or falling to 0. The main commodities rising are: hydrochloric acid (7.33%), calcium carbide (0.74%), caustic soda (0.60%); The main commodities falling were PVC (- 1.54%). The average rise and fall this week was 1.42%.

Business analysts believe that in the near future, the price of caustic soda is mainly running well this week, and some caustic soda enterprises have little inventory pressure in the near future, and the downstream demand is OK. It is comprehensively expected that the subsequent large, stable and small dynamic market operation of caustic soda is mainly based on the downstream market demand.

Recent price trend of calcium carbide

As can be seen from the above figure, the factory price of calcium carbide in Northwest China rose slightly this week. This week, the average ex factory price of mainstream calcium carbide manufacturers in Northwest China rose from 4350.00 yuan / ton last weekend to 4533.33 yuan / ton this weekend, an increase of 4.21&, down 11.97% year-on-year compared with the same period last year. On March 17, the calcium carbide commodity index was 118.78, unchanged from yesterday, down 44.03% from the highest point of 212.23 in the cycle (2021-10-26), and up 114.06% from the lowest point of 55.49 on March 14, 2016. (Note: the period refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to now)

The upstream cost support weakened and the downstream market fell slightly

Judging from the manufacturer’s quotation, the factory price of calcium carbide in Northwest China rose this week: oviganon quoted 4550 yuan / ton of calcium carbide this weekend, up 100 yuan / ton compared with last weekend; Inner Mongolia Zhonglian calcium carbide quoted 4550 yuan / ton this weekend, an increase of 250 yuan / ton compared with last weekend; Ningxia Xingping calcium carbide quoted 4500 yuan / ton this weekend, up 200 yuan / ton compared with last weekend.

From the upstream raw material market, the blue carbon market rose first and then fell this week. The quotation of Shenmu small materials this weekend is 1700 yuan / ton, which is 150 yuan / ton lower than that last weekend; The quotation of CMCC this weekend is 1750 yuan / ton, which is 150 yuan / ton lower than that of last weekend; The quotation of bulk materials this weekend is 1750 yuan / ton, which is 200 yuan / ton lower than that last weekend. The price of upstream raw materials fell slightly and the cost support weakened, which had a negative impact on the price of calcium carbide.

From the downstream market, the ex factory price of PVC fell slightly this week. This week, the ex factory price of PVC fell from 9070.00 yuan / ton last weekend to 8920.00 yuan / ton this weekend, a decrease of 1.65%, a year-on-year decrease of 0.47%. The price of PVC fell slightly this week, the enthusiasm of downstream customers for calcium carbide procurement weakened and strengthened, and the downstream PVC market had a negative impact on the price of calcium carbide.

Downstream products fell slightly, while calcium carbide fell slightly in the aftermarket

In the middle and late March, the calcium carbide market may fluctuate slightly and fall mainly. The price of raw material blue carbon fell slightly, the cost support of calcium carbide weakened, the downstream PVC market fell slightly, and the downstream demand weakened. In the future, it is predicted that the price of calcium carbide in Northwest China may fluctuate slightly in the middle and late March.

According to the data monitoring of business agency, the acrylonitrile market rose slightly this week (3.11-3.18). As of March 18, the price of acrylonitrile was 11900 yuan / ton, up 1.71% from 11700 yuan / ton last Friday. At present, the domestic acrylonitrile supply is still loose, but the plan of Shanghai Secco, Shandong Haijiang and other enterprises to overhaul their acrylonitrile units in mid and late March boosted the bullish atmosphere in the market, and the market offer increased slightly. As of March 18, the mainstream of acrylonitrile market offer in East China was between 11700 ~ 12500 yuan / ton.

The price of raw propylene fell sharply this week, and the cost support weakened. According to the monitoring of business agency, as of March 18, the domestic propylene price was 8267 yuan / ton, down 8.77% from 9062 yuan / ton last Friday.

ABS, nitrile rubber, acrylic fiber and other downstream markets have general sales and stable operation, which has a certain rigid support for acrylonitrile.

List of listed prices of acrylonitrile enterprises in March

enterprise ., Listing price in March (yuan / ton)

Fushun Petrochemical, twelve thousand and two hundred

Anqing Petrochemical, eleven thousand and eight hundred

Jilin Petrochemical, eleven thousand and eight hundred

Kollur ,. eleven thousand and eight hundred

Haijiang, Shandong, eleven thousand and four hundred

Silbon ., twelve thousand

Shanghai Secco, eleven thousand and eight hundred

Zhejiang Petrochemical ., eleven thousand and seven hundred

Future forecast: acrylonitrile analysts of business society believe that some enterprises have maintenance plans in mid and late March, and it is expected that the pressure on the supply side will be relieved in the later stage, but the domestic epidemic control may affect the demand side or be hit, and the price of acrylonitrile in the later stage is mainly shock consolidation.

441# silicon price trend

After rising for five consecutive weeks, metal silicon showed a negative decline. On the 18th, the average price of metal silicon in the domestic market was 23700 yuan / ton, down 0.88% on a weekly basis. The culprit of this price reduction is the demand side. The market sentiment is negative and the willingness to purchase metal silicon is weak.

The price of 441# silicon in various regions on the 18th is as follows:

The price range of #441 metal silicon in Huangpu port is 23600-23700 yuan / ton, with an average price of 23650 yuan / ton; The price range of #441 metallic silicon in Tianjin port area is 23400-23600 yuan / ton, with an average price of 23500 yuan / ton; The price range of #441 metallic silicon in Kunming is 23400-23500 yuan / ton, with an average of 23450 yuan / ton; The price range of #441 metallic silicon in Sichuan is 23300-23500 yuan / ton, with an average of 23400 yuan / ton; The price range of Shanghai #441 metal silicon is 24400-24600 yuan / ton, with an average price of 24500 yuan / ton.

Influencing factors of metal silicon price fluctuation

Benefit

On the supply side, Yunnan production area is greatly affected by the epidemic, the production of silicon plants is blocked, and the transportation of raw materials and products is difficult due to road control and other reasons, and the freight rate is also increased, resulting in tight market supply; On the raw material side, the prices of clean coal, petroleum coke and silica have increased, and the production cost has increased. At present, the main positive factors are the support of raw materials. The silicon factory has a tough attitude of reluctant to sell, and the price has been falsely high all the way.

Bad

Under the game of market supply and demand, the seller’s market is at a disadvantage, the prices of silicone and aluminum alloy have fallen, the market sentiment has been affected, but the price of metal silicon has been suppressed, the panic of some silicon factories has appeared, and the sale at a lower price has led to more transactions.

The ex factory price of organosilicon DMC is around 35000-39000 yuan / ton, and the overall market will maintain stable operation after warming. The supply and demand of silicone is unbalanced, and some new production capacity is continuously released. However, due to the impact of the epidemic, the procurement and replenishment of the downstream are stagnant. It is expected that the silicone market will be consolidated and operated in a narrow range; Polycrystalline silicon showed a slight upward trend. The main reason supporting the rise of polycrystalline silicon is that the increase of domestic silicon material supply in March was less than expected, but the downstream resisted high prices, and the mobility of silicon materials may continue to be limited in the later stage; Aluminum alloy merchants basically have no intention of hoarding goods. Shanghai aluminum plummeted and aluminum alloy followed. Most merchants choose to wait and see,

Future forecast

Recently, the consumer side just needs to purchase, the inquiry activity is reduced, the cost of the supply side is stronger, and the willingness to support the price is strong. At present, it is in the stalemate game stage, and the mentality trend of the buyer and the seller is seriously divided. Business analysts expect metal silicon prices to continue to decline in the short term.

Cobalt prices fell slightly this week

According to the data monitoring of business agency, the domestic cobalt price fell slightly this week, and the cobalt market fell back. As of March 21, the average price of cobalt was 566300 yuan / ton, down 0.39% from 568500 yuan / ton on March 14 last week. On March 20, the cobalt commodity index was 203.85, unchanged from yesterday, down 14.67% from the highest point of 238.91 in the cycle (April 15, 2018), and up 191.88% from the lowest point of 69.84 on July 5, 2016. (Note: the period refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to now). The impact of cobalt price on the historical high is blocked, and the risk of cobalt price decline remains.

The international cobalt price rose slowly and violently this week

From the trend chart of LME cobalt price, it can be seen that the high level of LME cobalt price this week is temporarily stable, which is still good for the domestic cobalt market, and the price difference between domestic and foreign cobalt prices is weakened.

Domestic mobile phone shipments fell

According to the domestic mobile phone market data released by China Academy of communications and communications in February 2022, the domestic mobile phone shipment in February 2022 was 14.864 million, a year-on-year decrease of 31.7%. From January to February 2022, the total shipments of mobile phones in the domestic market totaled 47.886 million, a year-on-year decrease of 22.6%. Mobile phone sales fell sharply month on month, the demand of cobalt market was lower than expected, and the rising power of cobalt Market weakened.

Market Overview

Bai Jiaxin, a data analyst of business agency, believes that the sales of new energy vehicles fell slightly, the sales of mobile phones fell sharply, and the demand of cobalt market fell. This week, the high level of international cobalt price is stable, the price difference between domestic and foreign cobalt prices is weakened, the rising power of cobalt price is weakened, the domestic cobalt price is close to the historical high, the rise of domestic cobalt price is too fast, and the falling risk of domestic cobalt market still exists. Overall, the high demand still exists, the rising power of cobalt market is weakened, the domestic cobalt price rises too fast, and the risk of cobalt market decline still exists. It is expected that the cobalt price will rise slightly in the future.

1、 Price trend

As can be seen from the above figure, the domestic isobutyraldehyde market price fell sharply this week. This week, the average price of isobutyraldehyde in the mainstream domestic market fell from 15266.67 yuan / ton last weekend to 11233.33 yuan / ton this weekend, down 26.42%. Overall, isobutyraldehyde prices fell sharply this week.

2、 Market analysis

The quotation of mainstream isobutyraldehyde manufacturers fell sharply this week: the ex factory quotation of lihuayi isobutyraldehyde this weekend was 11500 yuan / ton, which fell by 3700 yuan / ton compared with last weekend; Hualu Hengsheng isobutyraldehyde’s ex factory quotation this weekend is 11200 yuan / ton, which is 4300 yuan / ton lower than that last weekend; Shandong Zhenkun isobutyraldehyde offered 11000 yuan / ton this weekend, down 4100 yuan / ton compared with last weekend.

From the upstream and downstream industrial chain, the propylene market in the upstream raw material market of isobutyraldehyde fell sharply this week. The quotation fell from 9062.17 yuan / ton last weekend to 8267.17 yuan / ton this weekend, down 8.77%. The market price of upstream raw materials fell sharply, and the cost support was not affected by the supply and demand side, which had a negative impact on the price of isobutyraldehyde. From the downstream industrial chain, the market price of neopentyl glycol fell slightly, and the quotation fell from 18166.67 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 17900.00 yuan / ton at the end of the week, down 1.47%. The neopentyl glycol market fell slightly, and the downstream demand weakened, which had a negative impact on isobutyraldehyde.

3、 Future forecast

The market trend of isobutyraldehyde in the middle and late March may decline slightly. The upstream propylene market fell sharply and the cost support was insufficient. The downstream neopentyl glycol market fell slightly, and the downstream purchasing enthusiasm weakened. Isobutyraldehyde analysts of business society believe that under the influence of supply and demand and raw materials in the short-term isobutyraldehyde market, the isobutyraldehyde market may fluctuate and decline slightly.

According to the data monitoring of business agency, the price rise of industrial grade and battery grade lithium carbonate gradually slowed down this week. On March 17, the average price of industrial grade lithium carbonate in East China was 475400 yuan / ton, which was 1.36% higher than that in early Zhou (the average price of industrial grade lithium carbonate in East China was 469000 yuan / ton on March 13). On March 17, the average price of battery grade lithium carbonate in East China was 499600 yuan / ton, which was 1.75% higher than that in early Zhou (the average price of battery grade lithium carbonate in East China was 491000 yuan / ton on March 13). As of March 17, the comprehensive quotation of industrial grade lithium carbonate market is around 440000 ~ 495000 yuan / ton, and the comprehensive quotation of battery grade lithium carbonate market is around 480000 ~ 522000 yuan / ton.

According to the observation of market changes, the rising trend of lithium carbonate price has slowed down this week, and the price adjustment range of enterprises has also decreased. At present, the output of the supply side has begun to increase, part of the output in Qinghai has been released, and the tension of lithium carbonate has been alleviated. The downstream material factory has also basically completed the procurement this month. It tends to be cautious about the procurement of high priced lithium salts. There are few transactions in the market, and most manufacturers are mainly on the sidelines.

The downstream lithium hydroxide market rose. At present, some lithium salt plants are still in the maintenance stage, the output level has not been fully restored, and the industry supply is still at a low level. The demand side performed well. The increment of high nickel orders led to the increase of lithium hydroxide procurement demand, and the focus of market negotiation rose steadily.

The price of lithium iron phosphate in the downstream operates stably, the supply of manufacturers is tight, the negotiation focus is high, the overall market negotiation atmosphere is OK, the focus of the upstream market is high, the price is high, the lithium iron phosphate Market has certain support, and the overall market is strong.

Lithium carbonate analysts of business society believe that the current demand for lithium carbonate has slowed down, and the downstream market is mainly replenishing the warehouse. In addition, the current severe domestic epidemic situation and the implementation of traffic closure management in many regions have affected the transportation of goods to a certain extent. Therefore, the recent price adjustment is mainly stable, and it is expected that the short-term lithium carbonate price may be strong.