1、 Price trend

As can be seen from the above figure, the ex factory price of domestic potassium chloride increased slightly this month. At the end of this month, the ex factory quotation of domestic salt lake potassium chloride was 3490.00 yuan / ton, an increase of 300 yuan / ton or 9.40% compared with the beginning of the month, and a year-on-year increase of 61.95% compared with the same period last year. At the end of the month, the market price is about 4100-4200 yuan / ton. The domestic market price of imported potassium chloride increased slightly, and the quotation increased from 4316.67 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month to 4550.00 yuan / ton at the end of the month, an increase of 5.41%. On February 27, the commodity index of potassium chloride (import) was 118.86, unchanged from yesterday, hitting a record high in the cycle, up 22.90% from the lowest point of 96.71 on September 16, 2021. (Note: the period refers to the period from September 1, 2021 to now)

2、 Market analysis

The quotation of mainstream domestic potassium chloride manufacturers increased slightly this month: the ex factory quotation of Qinghai Salt Lake potassium chloride at the end of the month was 3490 yuan / ton, which increased by 300 yuan / ton compared with the beginning of the month. Youdeshi offered 4600 yuan / ton of potassium chloride at the end of this month, up 300 yuan / ton compared with the beginning of this month. Zibo Dehe offered 4650 yuan / ton of potassium chloride at the end of this month, up 300 yuan / ton compared with the beginning of this month. Anhui Badou’s potassium chloride distribution quotation at the end of this month was 4400 yuan / ton, an increase of 100 yuan / ton compared with the beginning of this month. The price of 62% white potassium in the port is about 4400 yuan / ton. Border trade 62% Russian White potassium is about 4300-4400 yuan / ton.

Judging from the downstream market of potassium chloride, the ex factory price of potassium carbonate increased slightly this month. The quotation increased from 8266.67 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month to 8433.33 yuan / ton at the end of the month, an increase of 2.02%, an increase of 27.30% year-on-year over the same period last year. The ex factory price of potassium nitrate increased slightly this month. The quotation increased from 6100.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month to 6300.00 yuan / ton at the end of the month, an increase of 3.28%, an increase of 50.90% year-on-year over the same period last year. Overall, the downstream market of potassium chloride rose slightly, and the downstream demand for potassium chloride was good.

3、 Future forecast

The overall trend of potassium chloride Market in the middle and early days of March may rise slightly. After the signing of the large contract for potassium chloride of US $590 / ton, it boosted market confidence. The price of potassium chloride in Salt Lake and zangge has risen, and the volume has been increased one after another, but the market supply is still limited and the supply is relatively tight. With the advent of spring ploughing, agricultural demand has increased, and traders are actively taking goods. In terms of industry, the downstream market of potassium chloride increased slightly, the downstream demand is good, and the just need to purchase is the main. The international price of potash fertilizer has been adjusted at a high level. At present, the international CIF price range of potassium chloride is generally at the level of US $600-800, and the domestic potash fertilizer is still likely to rise. Potassium chloride analysts of business society believe that the domestic price of potassium chloride may rise slightly in the short term.

Price trend in February

According to the data monitoring of the bulk list of business society, the price trend of cryolite was slightly reduced in February. On February 28, the average market price in Henan was 7250 yuan / ton, a slight decrease of 50 yuan / ton compared with 7300 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month, a decrease of 0.68% within the month and a year-on-year increase of 13.87%.

In February, the domestic cryolite market was mainly stable and wait-and-see. After the year, the start-up of cryolite manufacturers changed little compared with that before the year, the enterprise inventory was not under pressure, and the downstream demand was OK. Due to the high quotation before the festival, the quotation of individual manufacturers was slightly reduced for smooth shipment after the year. On the whole, the market supply and demand were relatively balanced, the shipment of enterprises was stable compared with that before the year, and the market ran smoothly. As of the 28th, the ex factory price of cryolite in Henan was 6800-8500 yuan / ton, down 200 yuan / ton month on month; The ex factory price in Shandong is temporarily stable, and the quotation is about 7600 yuan / ton. The actual transaction price is mainly negotiated.

Upstream and downstream market analysis

Upstream, the domestic soda ash market continued to rise. On February 28, the average price of soda ash was 2616 yuan / ton, up 19.62% from 2187 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month. After the Spring Festival, the soda ash market atmosphere was strong, the enterprise shipment was smooth, the soda ash inventory decreased, and the manufacturer’s price increased.

The downstream aluminum price fluctuated upward in February. On February 25, the average price of domestic aluminum ingots in East China market was 22830 yuan / ton, up 5.73% from 21593.33 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month. After the festival, the market demand is large, the aluminum destocking is obvious, the aluminum price rises rapidly, the downstream demand is adjusted in the later stage, the intention of hoarding is small, and the rise of aluminum price is weakened. However, due to the support of overseas factors, the aluminum market is still strong.

Future forecast

At present, in terms of supply and demand performance of cryolite market, the operating rate of enterprises is not high, there is no pressure on inventory, and the downstream demand is stable. It is expected that the cryolite market will be stable in the later stage.

Data monitoring shows that in February, the mainstream market of polyacrylamide (CPAM, cation, molecular weight 12 million, 10-30 ionic degree) in China’s domestic market was generally weak, with the quotation of 17200 yuan / ton on the 1st and about 17157.14 yuan / ton on the 28th, a slight decrease of 0.25%.

Industrial chain: acrylic acid: in February, the market situation in East China increased significantly by 15.9%. On the 1st, it was about 16033.33 yuan / ton, and on the 28th, it rose to 16033.33 yuan / ton. Among them, the monthly highest price appeared at 16100 yuan / ton on the 17th-22nd, and the lowest price was 16033.33 yuan / ton during the Spring Festival holiday. Affected by the macro situation, the international crude oil price continues to rise, the propylene price fluctuates greatly this month, the overall increase is obvious, the cost support is improved, the operating load of the acrylic acid industry is not high, and the downstream operation gradually returns to normal. It is expected that in the short term, the acrylic acid market may be high and wait-and-see operators, so we need to pay more attention to the guidance of market news. Acrylonitrile: affected by its raw material market and overhaul expectations, the market price of acrylonitrile increased by about 150 yuan / ton this month. At present, the average price of the domestic market is about 11500 yuan / ton. In the future, we still need to pay attention to the raw material end and the downstream operation. For the change of the demand end, the recent market shock is mainly consolidation, and the possibility of the upward shift of the focus of follow-up negotiations caused by the continuous rise of cost support is not ruled out.

Liquefied natural gas is used in the production process. According to the data monitoring of business agency, the domestic LNG market rose sharply in February, with an increase of more than 100% in the month. The price rose rapidly from about 3800 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month to about 8000 yuan / ton at the end of the month. Shandong, Henan and other places broke through the 9000 yuan mark, and the market focus moved up rapidly. The strength of international crude oil has brought obvious benefits to the market. The domestic liquefied gas market continues to strengthen as a whole. Superimposed on the increase in market demand in February and the decrease in supply, the domestic liquefied natural gas market is much higher than that in the same period last year. According to the analysis of business society, the current rise is basically in place. With the warmer weather and the limited downstream receiving capacity, the domestic liquid market will return to rationality.

Future forecast: the situation in Russia and Ukraine is uncertain, market concerns are high, and international crude oil continues to rise. Affected by this, the market of propylene and liquefied natural gas is strong, and the upstream of polyacrylamide and fuel cost support are good; On the supply side, the enterprise has sufficient inventory; Downstream end: the demand is relatively stable, and its driving effect on the price is not obvious; Circulation end: normal logistics and reasonable cost. As for the future, the analysis of business society believes that the biggest impact on polyacrylamide in the near future is the supporting role of upstream costs and the promotion of downstream demand. It pays close attention to the development of International Geopolitics and the impact on bulk raw materials.