According to the monitoring data of business society, as of April 14, the average ex factory price of domestic n-butanol was 9333 yuan / ton. Compared with April 8 (the average reference price of n-butanol was 9366 yuan / ton), the average price was reduced by 33 yuan / ton, a decrease of 0.36%.

It can be seen from the data monitoring chart of business agency that this week, the domestic n-butanol market in Shandong showed a slight rise and then a slight decline, and the overall fluctuation of the market is not too large. At the beginning of the week (April 11), the domestic n-butanol market in Shandong moved slightly upward, the downstream demand for low-cost procurement improved, and the market atmosphere warmed up. Many n-butanol factories made firm offers. In the middle of the week, the n-butanol market remained relatively strong and consolidated. Near the end of the week, due to the logistics restrictions in some domestic regions, the downstream demand side support was slightly loose, and some factories in Shandong reduced the ex factory price of n-butanol, The reduction range is 200 yuan / ton. The low-end quotation of n-butanol is 9200 yuan / ton. As of April 14, the ex factory price of n-butanol in Shandong is around 9200-9400 yuan / ton, and the overall decline of the market during the week is 0.36%. At present, the difference between high and low prices of n-butanol in Shandong is small, the overall market demand is acceptable, and the trading atmosphere is relatively stable.

In terms of upstream propylene, on the 14th, the price of propylene in Shandong rose slightly, and the offer of enterprises was increased by 50 yuan / ton. At present, the mainstream price of propylene in Shandong was 8400-8550 yuan / ton. The price of crude oil fluctuated upward, and the cost support was ok, but the downstream demand was weak, the polypropylene market demand was weak, the market continued to be weak, and the upward space of propylene was limited. Forecast: pay close attention to the changes of future raw materials and demand, and it is expected that the short-term market shock of propylene will be dominated.

Future analysis of n-butanol

At present, the on-site circulation performance of n-butanol is acceptable. The overall price difference of domestic n-butanol is large, the transaction of high-end price is limited, the transaction atmosphere of low-end price is good, and the core demand of the on-site is relatively stable. The n-butanol datagrapher of business society believes that in the short term, the domestic n-butanol market in Shandong is mainly stable, finishing and operation, and more attention needs to be paid to the changes of raw materials and information on the supply and demand side.

According to the data monitored by the business agency, as of April 13, the average price of domestic rubber grade high-grade white carbon black was 6325.00 yuan / ton, which had no significant change compared with the same period last week. The overall market is mainly running smoothly. At present, the market supply is normal and just needs to be purchased.

The market price of white carbon black has a stable trend. Compared with the same period last week, the price has not changed. The overall market supply and demand is balanced. The downstream just needs to purchase, mainly for contract customers. The logistics is smooth, and the market negotiation atmosphere is flat. The latest quotation of the enterprise: Jinan jinrihe Chemical Co., Ltd. is 6000 yuan / ton, Jinan Century Lianxing economic and Trade Co., Ltd. is 6000 yuan / ton, and Foshan Shunde Jinchun silicon material Co., Ltd. is 9100 yuan / ton, Shandong Jiquan Biotechnology Co., Ltd. (gas phase method) is 38000 yuan / ton, Shandong Jiquan Biotechnology Co., Ltd. (precipitation method) is 8200 yuan / ton, and Shandong Shouguang Changtai Weina chemical plant is 7700 yuan / ton. The manufacturer ships actively and gives up the order.

As of April 11, the domestic hydrochloric acid market price of upstream hydrochloric acid was temporarily stable, which was the same as that of April 8, with a year-on-year increase of 43.75% compared with the same period last year. The recent market of upstream liquid chlorine has increased slightly, the cost support has been strengthened, the price of downstream polyaluminium chloride has been adjusted at a low level, and the market price of ammonium chloride has been adjusted at a high level, the rising power is insufficient, and the downstream purchase intention is general.

Ranking of chemical index: on April 12, the chemical index was 1176 points, down 5 points from yesterday, down 16.00% from the highest point of 1400 points in the cycle (2021-10-23), and up 96.66% from the lowest point of 598 points on April 8, 2020. (Note: the period refers to the period from December 1, 2011 to now)

Business agency white carbon black analysts believe that the trend of rubber grade white carbon black is stable in the short term, and the price range is about 6000-6500 yuan / ton. (to know more about the industry chain market trends, welcome to pay attention to the official account of the business community, obtain commodity information, and grasp the commodity price).

This week (4.6-8), the domestic liquid ammonia Market stabilized after the festival, with little rise or fall in the market. Prices in northern regions such as Shandong and Hebei increased slightly, which was mainly affected by the reduction of supply in the region and the failure of some devices. According to the monitoring of business society, as of April 8, the weekly increase of liquid ammonia in Shandong was 0.34%. At present, the mainstream quotation range of liquid ammonia in Shandong is 4700-4900 yuan / ton.

Supply side

On the supply side, this week, the overall ammonia release in many domestic places was mainly flat compared with the previous week, with a partial decline. In particular, there are too many unit maintenance in the south, and the reduction of supply leads to the price of liquid ammonia rising above the 5000 yuan mark. Affected by public health events in northern regions such as Shandong, the shipment is not smooth, but it is also accompanied by plant shutdown and maintenance. The temporary inspection of a set of Shuntian and Zhengyuan devices alleviates the supply pressure, and the ammonia price in the region is mainly supported and stabilized.

Cost side

The upstream coal market is affected by the regulation policy, and the price maintains the previous level. At present, the profits of downstream methanol and liquid ammonia manufacturers are generally boosted. With the fall of natural gas price, the cost pressure of gas head enterprises has been relieved. According to the monitoring of business society, LNG fell by 2.14% this week.

Demand side

From the terminal point of view, the downstream of liquid ammonia still maintained a moderate growth trend, the price of urea was slightly corrected, and ammonium chloride and other products rebounded. On the whole, the downstream agricultural demand is still strong, and the industrial demand is normal. With the advent of spring ploughing, domestic fertilizer has entered the peak season, and dealers take goods actively. However, affected by the epidemic, urea shipment is blocked and freight rates rise sharply. The operating load of compound fertilizer plant, plate plant and melamine plant is high, and the bargain hunting is followed up appropriately.

From the above figure, the price comparison chart of urea and liquid ammonia shows that the trend of liquid ammonia and urea is basically the same, and the curve crosses in April. It is mainly due to the impact of the high decline of urea price, and the strong price of liquid ammonia also brings some cost pressure to the downstream. However, at present, the price difference between the two has narrowed and maintained a reasonable level.

From the above figure and the liquid ammonia industry chain diagram, at present, the profits of the liquid ammonia industry chain continue to improve, the natural gas price in the upstream of the gas head falls, the coal price is affected by the policy, and the price remains weak, which is conducive to alleviating the downstream cost pressure. The middle and lower reaches recovered, the enterprise profit increased, and the profit of liquid ammonia increased significantly compared with the previous period. The downstream areas have also improved significantly, with formic acid, ammonium chloride and ammonium nitrate rising to varying degrees.

Future forecast

The business society believes that at present, the overall supply side remains stable, the differentiation trend in the region is obvious, the market shows a pattern of weak in the north and strong in the south, while the demand side remains dominated by rigid demand, and the possibility of demand amplification is unlikely. However, at the same time, many places have maintenance plans, the supply side also maintains a reasonable and tight level, and the future trend of supply and demand will continue to be balanced. In addition, public health events are still fermenting, which will still bring some pressure on transportation in the later stage. Overall, under the condition of small supply pressure, the ammonia market may still maintain a high consolidation pattern in the near future.

This week, the domestic EVA market showed a phased upward trend, and the overall upward trend was obvious. According to the data monitoring of the business agency, the average ex factory price of domestic EVA was 20933.33 yuan / ton on April 1 and 21566.67 yuan / ton on April 8, with an increase of 3.03% during the week and 10.60% higher than that on March 1.

As of April 8, the ex factory quotation of EVA is as follows:

Products, manufactor., model., Ex factory price

EVA., Yanshan Petrochemical, 18J3., 21200 yuan / ton

EVA., Beijing Organic, Y2022., 20500 yuan / ton

EVA., BASF Yangzi, V5110J., 23000 yuan / ton

In early April, the domestic EVA market rose significantly as a whole. At present, the market is dominated by favorable factors, and the price of EVA is relatively strong. At the beginning of the month, the ex factory quotation of petrochemical enterprises increased significantly, which brought some support to the cost side. The demand for photovoltaic materials is good, and the spot supply in the market is tight. In addition, the supply of goods for auction is limited, the upstream inventory is mostly in a controllable state, the mentality is relatively strong, and the merchant price rises slightly. But on the whole, the downstream demand is weak, and the market trading atmosphere is weak.

At present, although the international crude oil price fluctuates, the price is relatively high, and the raw materials have brought some support to the market. The market demand for photovoltaic materials is good, and the supply of EVA spot market is still tight. Although the downstream demand is general, there is no pressure on the upstream inventory and the mentality is strong. It is expected that the price of EVA market may still rise in the short term.

This week, the domestic methanol market fell in a narrow range, the market atmosphere was slightly deadlocked, the traders bought gas in general, and the shipment was not smooth. The support of raw coal price for methanol production cost was weakened. Although the unit maintenance and supply of some enterprises were slightly favorable, the downstream demand was still depressed.

According to the monitoring data of business agency, from April 1 to 8, the average price of domestic methanol production enterprises fell from 3070 yuan / ton to 3022 yuan / ton. During the cycle, the price fell by 1.55%, the price fell by 1.47% month on month, and the year-on-year increase was 26.20%.

As of the closing on April 8, the methanol futures range of Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange fluctuated. Ma2205 contract opened at 2921 yuan / ton, with the highest price of 2933 yuan / ton and the lowest price of 2945 yuan / ton. It closed at 2867 yuan / ton, down 93 yuan / ton compared with the closing of the previous trading day. As of the closing, ma2205 contract position was 487100 hands, down 42400 hands compared with the previous trading day.

Summary of methanol market prices in various regions as of 4.8:

Region, Price

Qinghai region, No quotation

Shanxi region, 2550-2560 yuan / ton factory withdrawal cash exchange

Liaoning Province, 2800 yuan / ton factory delivery

Fujian Province, 2980-3000 yuan / ton, cash out of the warehouse nearby

Two lakes region, Ex factory reference 2930-2950 yuan / ton factory withdrawal cash exchange

Anhui Province, 3000-3030 yuan / ton factory acceptance

Henan Province, Price reference: 2865-2870 yuan / ton factory acceptance

In the weekly methanol industry chain profits, olefin monomers, formaldehyde and dimethyl ether perform better. Upstream, the price fluctuation of raw materials is limited, the sample prices of coal alcohol and gas alcohol are different, and the overall profit changes little. Downstream, the external market of ethylene rose, supporting the improvement of monomer profits; Although the price focus of formaldehyde fell, the decline of methanol in the sample area was greater, which turned its profit from loss to profit; Dimethyl ether market rose, supporting losses narrowed; Glacial acetic acid profit maintained well and fluctuated in a narrow range; MTBE’s profit narrowed due to the rise in the average price of raw material carbon 4.

Comparison chart of price trend of coal / steam coal (upstream raw material) – methanol in shanghaishe:

Comparison chart of natural gas (upstream raw material) – methanol price trend of business community:

In terms of external market, as of the closing on April 7, the external market price of butadiene in Asia was stable: FOB Korea closed at US $1450 / ton; CFR China closed at US $1470 / ton. The external price of butadiene in Europe remained stable: FOB Rotterdam closed at US $1555 / ton; FD northwest Europe closed at 1390 euros / ton.

region ., country., Closing price, Rise and fall

Asia, FOB Korea, $1450 / ton, USD 0 / ton

Asia, CFR China, $1470 / ton, USD 0 / ton

Europe, FOB Rotterdam, US $1555 / ton, USD 0 / ton

Europe, FD northwest Europe, 1390 euros / ton, 0 euro / ton

Coal price supports or weakens methanol production cost. Both supply and demand increase, but the increase in demand may be limited. Methanol analysts of business society expect that the domestic methanol market will be dominated by weak consolidation in the short term.

Under the influence of cost pressure, the price of viscose staple fiber rose sharply on April 7, and some manufacturers even increased by 800 yuan / ton.

Price trend of viscose staple fiber

According to the price monitoring of business society, as of April 7, 2022, the domestic ex factory quotation of 1.2D * 38mm viscose staple fiber was 14040 yuan / ton, up 600 yuan / ton or 4.46% from yesterday. Some downstream just need replenishment and signing, and the production and marketing rate of viscose staple fiber has improved slightly, but the market demand is still light, and the overall transaction is general.

The cotton yarn price of downstream people is weak, and the trading atmosphere is weak. The yarn factory mainly ships, and the price negotiation degree is high. The operating rate of the industry has entered the downward channel. As of April 7, 2022, the average ex factory price of human cotton yarn (30s, ring spinning, first-class products) is 18266 yuan / ton,

Future forecast

The terminal demand remains flat and difficult to improve. Recently, the startup rate of human cotton yarn has decreased and the prosperity has declined. The market will continue to have a light trading atmosphere. However, under the pressure of rising costs, it is difficult for viscose staple fiber manufacturers to make concessions. After this round of price increases, business analysts predict that the price of short-term viscose staple fiber will be mainly finishing.

The price of orthobenzene fell on April 6

According to the data monitoring of business agency, the average quotation price of o-xylene on April 6 was 8600 yuan / ton, down 400 yuan / ton from the listing price of 9000 yuan / ton of o-xylene Sinopec on April 1 of the previous trading day. The price of orthobenzene fell and the market of orthobenzene fell.

Key points of analysis

The high crude oil price fluctuated and fell, the mixed xylene price fluctuated and fell, and the cost of orthobenzene fell; The price of phthalic anhydride was adjusted by weak shocks, and the demand for phthalic anhydride decreased. The demand for cost reduction is general, the driving force for the rise of ortho benzene is weakened, the downward pressure is increased, the external price shock of ortho benzene is stabilized, the price difference between domestic and foreign ortho benzene still exists, which is good for the domestic ortho benzene market, and the downward pressure is increased.

Future forecast

The cost decreased, the demand was general, the benefit of orthobenzene weakened, the downward pressure increased, and the market of orthobenzene fell in the future.

On March 30, the hydrobenzene commodity index was 93.27, unchanged from yesterday, down 8.57% from the highest point of 102.01 in the cycle (2014-01-09), and up 211.00% from the lowest point of 29.99 on April 7, 2020. (Note: the period refers to the period from December 1, 2013 to now).

Summary of price adjustment of Sinopec pure benzene (unit: yuan / ton)

Date, Adjusted price, Adjustment amount

March 3, 8200.,+300

March 4, 8500.,+300

March 7, 8750.,+250

March 9, 8900.,+150

March 14, 8600.,-300

March 16, 8200.,-400

March 22, 8400.,+200

March 24, 8600.,+200

On March 24, 2022, the listing price of Sinopec pure benzene was increased by 200 yuan / ton and 8600 yuan / ton.

Other enterprises: Jincheng Petrochemical offers 8400 yuan / ton, Weilian chemical offers 8503 yuan / ton, Xinhai Petrochemical offers 8450 yuan / ton, and Hongrun Petrochemical offers 8500 yuan / ton.

Crude oil: affected by the uncertainty of geopolitical situation, crude oil showed an overall upward trend this month, and the price fluctuated widely. The United States and its allies discussed sanctions on Russian energy, deepening market concerns about supply risks. As of March 28, Brent rose 11.49 USD / barrel, or 11.38%; WTI rose $10.24/barrel, or 10.7%. On March 30, the price of international crude oil futures rebounded. The settlement price of the main contract of WTI crude oil futures in the United States was US $107.82/barrel, up US $3.58 or 3.4%; The settlement price of the main contract of Brent crude oil futures was US $111.44/barrel, up US $3.73 or 3.5%. Data released by the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) on Wednesday showed that US crude oil inventories fell continuously, indicating that supply is still tight; In addition, the market is worried that Western sanctions against Russia continue to escalate, and the situation in Russia and Ukraine is still difficult to improve in the short term, and the risk of supply interruption remains in the future.

In March 2022, the hydrobenzene market fluctuated upward. The ex factory price in North China was 8025 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month and 8400 yuan / ton at the end of the month, with a monthly increase of 4.67%.

Basically, due to geopolitical factors, crude oil continued to rise as a whole this month. Driven by the rising cost, the price of pure benzene rose by more than 10% in early March. However, crude oil continued to rise, pure benzene and its downstream profit space were compressed, some units stopped to reduce the burden, and the demand for pure benzene was weak. Superimposed on the impact of domestic public health events, the transportation in many places is limited, the inventory of enterprises in some regions is accumulated, and the price drops rapidly from a high level. Late this month, in the face of market concerns about the increased risk of oil supply, crude oil prices rose again, and pure benzene rebounded with crude oil. However, weak demand and blocked transportation limited the increase. As the price of crude oil started to rise at the beginning of this month, the price of crude oil can rise strongly after the start of maintenance of benzene hydrogenation unit. At present, the price of crude oil can rise to a certain extent, driven by the correction of crude oil prices at the beginning of this month. However, in the middle and late of this month, with the transportation blocked, the overall shipment of hydrogenated benzene is not smooth, so the price increase this month is less than that of pure benzene.

In the future, the business agency believes that at present, pure benzene is obviously affected by the fluctuation of crude oil trend. In terms of demand, some downstream enterprises have insufficient profit space and lack of power to catch up, and some factories shut down to reduce the burden. The demand is limited, and the upward pressure of pure benzene increases, which may fall; If crude oil continues to rise, or support pure benzene to rise. Continue to pay attention to the impact of the international crude oil market, the external market, the dynamics of pure benzene and downstream devices, and changes in demand on the price of pure benzene.

In March, the domestic bisphenol a market was depressed first and then increased, and the overall decline was mainly due to the fermentation of domestic public events, the serious obstruction of logistics and consumption, and bisphenol a broke down for many times. At the end of the month, due to the centralized replenishment at the downstream PC end and the limited spot resources in the market, the market rose. According to the monitoring data of the business society, the national market was quoted at 17187 yuan / ton on March 1, fell to 15825 yuan / ton on March 25, and rose to 16550 yuan / ton on March 31. It was first restrained and then raised during the month, with an overall decline of 3.71%.

On the raw material side, the domestic acetone market rose first and then fell in March, with an overall rise of 3.28%. According to the monitoring data of business agency, the average offer of domestic acetone market was 5725 yuan / ton on March 1, 5912 yuan / ton on March 30, an increase of 3.28% in the month, and the offer of domestic phenol market was 6337 yuan / ton on March 10, with an amplitude of 10.7%. By the end of the month, the offer in East China market was about 5850 yuan / ton, that in South China was 6000 yuan / ton, and that in North China and surrounding areas of Shandong was 5850-5950 yuan / ton.

Phenol rose first and then fell in the domestic market as a whole in March. According to the monitoring data of business agency, the average offer of domestic phenol market was 10812 yuan / ton on March 1, and 10657 yuan / ton on March 30, a decrease of 1.43% in the month. On March 10, the offer of domestic phenol market was 11175 yuan / ton, with an amplitude of 4.65%. By the end of the month, the offer in East China market was about 10650 yuan / ton, that in South China was 10750 yuan / ton, and that in North China and surrounding areas of Shandong was 10550-10650 yuan / ton

The inventory consumption of downstream epoxy resin and PC terminal was slow in the middle and early ten days. With the obstruction of domestic logistics and the difficulty of downstream replenishment, the PC terminal ushered in centralized replenishment after the 25th. At this time, the supply of bisphenol A was also in a tight situation. Under the stimulation of increased demand and no pressure and good supply, the market rebounded at the end of the month, rising by about 1000 yuan / ton, which stimulated the market offer of bisphenol A to rise to 16550 yuan / ton.

From the perspective of business society, the overall supply of bisphenol A in April is OK. With the improvement of logistics and the increase of operating rate at the downstream epoxy resin and PC end, the demand is expected to improve. The bisphenol a cargo holders are tight in supply and reluctant to sell. If the short-term domestic public events are controlled, it is expected that the bisphenol a market will still have upward space in April.

Data monitoring shows that the polyacrylamide commodity index on March 31 was 98.55, the same as yesterday, down 11.62% from the highest point of 111.51 in the cycle (2021-11-03), and up 18.89% from the lowest point of 82.89 on August 2, 2020. (Note: the period refers to the period from April 1, 2019 to now)

Commodity market: data monitoring shows that in March, China’s polyacrylamide (CPAM, cation, molecular weight of 12 million, 10-30 ionic degree) fluctuated and decreased, of which the mainstream quotation in the domestic market on the 31st was about 17014.29 yuan / ton, and the main quotation on the 1st was 16128.57 yuan / ton, with a monthly decrease of 5.21%. At present, the production of the enterprise is normal and the market inventory is sufficient; Weak downstream demand and average transaction; Recent public health incidents have a great impact on all parts of the country, with relatively tight transport capacity and a certain increase in costs.

 
Industrial chain: according to the data of business agency, the upstream raw material acrylonitrile fell first and then increased slightly in March. At present, the mainstream quotation in the domestic market is about 11650 yuan / ton; Acrylic acid, the raw material, fell in the acrylic acid Market in March. On the 31st, the acrylic acid Market in East China was 15366.67 yuan / ton, down 4.57% from 16033.33 on the 1st. At present, the price of raw material propylene is weak, the support of cost side is insufficient, the support of supply and demand side is flat, and the market wait-and-see atmosphere is strong. It is expected that the acrylic acid market may be weak in the short term, so more attention should be paid to the guidance of market news.

Used in the production of liquefied natural gas. According to the data monitoring of the business agency, the domestic LNG market fell as a whole in March, with a decline of about 13% in the month. With the warmer weather, the market has gradually entered the off-season of consumption, the demand in the North has decreased, and the logistics in some areas has been affected by the holding of the two national games and the Paralympic Games. The enthusiasm for downstream procurement has weakened, the market supply has increased, and the negative factors have superimposed, resulting in the decline of domestic liquid price. In the middle of the year, due to the small inventory pressure of liquid plants and the increase of demand in the South due to cold air factors, the market trading has improved, and the price has increased slightly, However, the demand follow-up was general and fell rapidly after the rise. In the second half of the month, due to the differences in local liquid prices and more resource outflows, the market was strongly driven up, and the price trend showed an upward trend. At present, the price of the terminal is about 7200-9700 yuan / ton. The spot CIF price of LNG in China is US $30.32/million British heat, and the price is reduced. At present, the inventory of the liquid plant is not under pressure, and the market is pushed up slightly. It is predicted that the heating period will end in April, and the domestic LNG market will tend to be stable.

Future forecast: at present, the prevention and control of public health events in Shandong and Henan production areas are tense, and the delivery and transportation are affected to a certain extent. In addition to the transportation cost, the cost of polyacrylamide raw materials increased slightly this week, and the spot inventory in the market is sufficient. Affected by weak downstream demand, polyacrylamide market is expected to remain stable in the future.