1、 Price trend

According to the data monitored by the business agency, the price of PVC carbide SG5 fell sharply in June. On June 1, the average price of domestic PVC was 8471.25 yuan / ton, and on June 29, the average price was 7366.25 yuan / ton. The price fell by 18.24% in the month.

2、 Market analysis

In June, the market price of PVC carbide SG5 first rose slightly and then fell sharply. The overall price fell mainly. Futures prices fell for 13 consecutive working days this month. After rebounding yesterday, they fell slightly today. The futures price depresses the sentiment of the spot market. At present, the confidence of the PVC spot market is insufficient. The actual transaction is limited. The downstream enterprises and traders are in a strong wait-and-see mood. They are cautious in taking goods. They are mainly just in need. The goods in the PVC spot market are not good. As of the 28th, the quotation range of domestic pvc5 electric stone is mostly around 7050-7550 yuan / ton.

In terms of international crude oil, on June 28, the price of international crude oil futures rose. The settlement price of the main contract of WTI crude oil futures in the United States was US $111.76/barrel, up US $2.19 or 2.0%; The settlement price of the main contract of Brent crude oil futures was US $113.80/barrel, up US $2.82 or 2.54%. Most of the oil producing countries of OPEC are close to the upper limit of production capacity, and it is increasingly difficult to increase production in the later stage. With the discussion of new sanctions against Russian oil by the group of seven western countries, supply expectations are tightened to boost oil prices.

In terms of ethylene, the external ethylene market fell in June. The market price of ethylene in Asia fell. As of the 28th, CFR Northeast Asia closed at $976-986 / ton, and CFR Southeast Asia closed at $1096-1106 / ton. The market price of ethylene in Europe fell sharply. As of the 28th, FD northwest Europe closed at $1538-1548 / ton and CIF northwest Europe closed at $1300-1308 / ton. The price of ethylene in the United States rose violently. As of the 28th, the price was 552-570 yuan / ton. In June, the price of ethylene in the outer market basically fell. The market transaction was poor and the price continued to fall.

In terms of calcium carbide, the factory price of calcium carbide in Northwest China fell sharply this month. In this month, the average ex factory price of mainstream calcium carbide manufacturers in Northwest China rose from 4366.67 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month to 3833.33 yuan / ton on the 27th. The price in the month fell by 12.21%, 17.56% year-on-year compared with the same period last year. On the whole, the downstream market of calcium carbide fell slightly this month, the upstream raw material prices rose first and then fell, and the cost support was general. The downstream is less enthusiastic about calcium carbide procurement, which has a negative impact on the price of calcium carbide. In the aftermarket, it is predicted that the price of calcium carbide in Northwest China may fluctuate slightly in the middle and early July, mainly for consolidation.

3、 Aftermarket forecast

PVC analysts of the business club believe that June is the off-season for PVC, the market demand is weak, and the actual transaction is poor. Manufacturers and traders have accumulated a lot of money, lack of market confidence, light trading, and just need replenishment. The PVC market is expected to decline slightly in the short term.

According to the price monitoring of the business club, the domestic PTA market has shown an “n” trend since June. As of June 28, the average price of the domestic PTA market was 6930 yuan / ton, up 1.22% from the beginning of the month and 34.31% year-on-year.

The market returned to fundamentals, the expected impact of supply tightening, and the price of international crude oil futures rose significantly at the end of the month. As of June 27, the settlement price of the main contract of WTI crude oil futures in the United States was $109.57/barrel, an increase of $1.95 or 1.81%; The settlement price of the main contract of Brent crude oil futures was US $110.98/barrel, up US $1.88 or 1.72%.

In terms of supply, the operating rate of domestic PTA industry is around 80%, and the operation is on the high side, waiting for the next round of maintenance. A 1million ton PTA plant in Southwest China was overhauled on June 28. The two sets of 6.6 million ton PTA units in East China intend to reduce the load by 20%, and the specific plan remains to be determined. In addition, Honggang Petrochemical will invest in the construction of 2.4 million T / a PTA phase III project. Honggang Petrochemical currently has a PTA capacity of 3.9 million T / A. after the project is put into operation, it will have a total PTA capacity of 6.3 million T / A.

The textile market has slowly entered the off-season. The terminal orders are weak. The start-up of the weaving industry is below 60%. The polyester has not been able to keep up with the rise. The profits have remained low and the factory has suffered serious losses. Polyester production and sales are generally flat, it is difficult to remove inventory and increase operating load, and the enthusiasm for PTA spot purchase is not high.

Business analysts believe that crude oil began to stop falling and rebound, which led to PTA recovery and formed a positive support on the cost side. PTA supply side is also expected to reduce, but the terminal load start-up is still low, and the enthusiasm for PTA stock up is poor. Therefore, the PTA price rise is restricted. In the short term, the PTA market remains slightly upward.

1、 Price data

According to the data in the bulk list of business agency, the price of petroleum coke from local refiners continued to decline this week. On June 26, the average price in Shandong market was 4595.75 yuan / ton, down 5.65% from 4871.00 yuan / ton on June 20.

On June 26, the commodity index of petroleum coke was 357.45, unchanged from yesterday, down 12.54% from the highest point 408.70 in the cycle (2022-05-11), and up 434.38% from the lowest point 66.89 on March 28, 2016. (Note: the period refers to 2012-09-30 to now)

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

This week, the price of petroleum coke in refineries continued to fall. Refineries cut prices and shipped goods. Downstream enterprises mainly purchased according to their needs, and their purchasing enthusiasm was average.

Upstream: the international crude oil price fell, the market returned to fundamentals, and the crude oil supply price was under tight support. However, affected by the expectation of interest rate hike by many central banks across the country, the market was worried about the economic recession, and the oil price was still fluctuating in the range. The US inflation in May exceeded expectations. The CPI soared to 8.6% year-on-year. The US Federal Reserve’s interest rate hike of 75 basis points also set a record. The fear of further increasing the risk of global economic recession, coupled with the uncertainty of the epidemic, has led to major changes in market expectations. The dollar rose again, risky assets were sold off again, and the stock market, bulk commodities and other fields fell on a large scale. Crude oil bears the brunt. It is already at a relatively high level in history. Under the condition that the tight supply situation has not changed, the panic has dealt a heavy blow to the oil price.

Downstream: the price of calcined coke was basically stable this week; The market price of metallic silicon continues to rise; The price of downstream electrolytic aluminum continued to decline. As of June 26, the price was 19370.00 yuan / ton.

Petroleum coke analysts of business agency believe that: international crude oil fell this week, and petroleum coke cost support is limited; The petroleum coke of local refining enterprises is generally shipped, and the downstream is mainly purchased on demand. The refinery discharges inventory and ships at a reduced price. It is expected that the price of locally refined petroleum coke may decline slightly in the near future.

DOP prices fell sharply this week

According to the data monitoring of the business agency, the DOP price fell sharply this week. The market demand for DOP was insufficient in the off-season, and the DOP market fell sharply. As of June 24, the DOP price was 10200 yuan / ton, down 11.40% from 11512.5 yuan / ton on June 17 last week. The cost of demand in the off-season fell, and the DOP price fell sharply.

The price of isooctanol fell sharply this week

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, the price of isooctanol fell sharply this week, and the isooctanol market fell. As of June 24, the price of isooctanol was 9566.67 yuan / ton, down 14.84% from 12233.33 yuan / ton on June 17 last week. The price of isooctanol fell sharply this week, the cost of DOP market fell, and the downward pressure on DOP increased.

The high price of phthalic anhydride fell this week

According to the price monitoring of the business club, the high price of phthalic anhydride fell this week. As of June 24, the price of phthalic anhydride was 8625 yuan / ton, down 0.58% from 8675 yuan / ton on June 17 last week. The high price of phthalic anhydride fell, the cost of DOP raw materials fell, and the driving force of DOP price rise weakened.

Aftermarket expectation

According to DOP data analysts of business agency, the start-up of downstream enterprises was low this week. In the off-season of the market, downstream enterprises reduced production and increased, and the demand for plasticizers was insufficient; The price of isooctanol fell sharply, the high price of phthalic anhydride fell, the cost of plasticizer DOP fell, and the price of DOP fell sharply; In the off-season of the market, the cumulative shutdown increased, the downstream demand of DOP was insufficient, the downward pressure of DOP increased, and the upward momentum weakened. In general, the downward pressure on the cost of raw materials is increasing, the demand in the off-season is insufficient, and the downward pressure on DOP is increasing. It is expected that the DOP price will fall sharply in the future.

According to the monitoring data of the business agency, as of June 23, the reference average price of 30% grade phosphorus ore in the mainstream areas in China was around 1043 yuan / ton. Compared with June 1 (the reference price of phosphorus ore was 910 yuan / ton), the price increased by 133 yuan / ton, or 14.65%.

It can be seen from the data monitoring chart of the business community that since June, China’s domestic phosphate ore market has continued to operate at a high level. The supply of phosphate ore in the mine is tight, and the downstream demand is performing well. Large mining enterprises in some parts of China have suspended their external supply, focusing on their own use. The spot circulation in the phosphate ore market is insufficient. Under the two-way support of supply and demand, the focus of the phosphate ore market has been moving upward. As of June 23, the market price of 30% grade phosphate ore in Guizhou has been around 1030-1100 yuan / ton, with an increase of around 100-150 yuan / ton in June, The market price of 28% phosphate ore is around 920-950 yuan / ton. At present, a mining enterprise in Guizhou has resumed construction, and only a small amount of goods are sold externally, of which the market price of 30% grade phosphorus ore is reported as 1050 yuan / ton. The details are discussed separately. Some mining enterprises in Guangxi mainly receive orders in advance, and the orders are scheduled to the middle of July. Recently, phosphorus ore of Hebei mining enterprises is mainly supplied to shareholder customers, and there is no external supply source for the time being. At present, the downstream demand for phosphate rock is stable, and the supply and demand side of the site is well supported.

In terms of downstream yellow phosphorus, since June, the domestic yellow phosphorus market has been running down as a whole. According to the monitoring data of the business agency, the reference price of yellow phosphorus was 38320 yuan / ton on June 22, a decrease of 2.16% compared with that on June 1 (39166.67 yuan / ton).

Forecast and analysis of future trend of phosphate rock

At present, phosphate rock is a non renewable resource. In addition to the mining in recent years, the domestic medium and high-end phosphate rock has decreased year by year. The tight market supply is difficult to be greatly improved in the short term, and the downstream demand side is stable. The phosphate rock datagrapher of business society believes that in the short term, the domestic phosphate rock market is mainly high-level and strong, and the specific trend needs to pay more attention to the specific changes in the supply and demand side.

Last week (June 13-19), the high price of viscose staple fiber was strong, and the focus of transaction price increased slightly. The prices of some factories were increased by 100-200 yuan / ton, the manufacturers’ quotations were about 16000 yuan, and the actual transaction prices were concentrated at 15500-15700 yuan / ton. The cotton yarn price of downstream people is stable at a high level, and the transaction atmosphere has improved, but the trading volume is limited, the shipment is general, the downstream orders are limited, and the yarn inventory is still large.

Trend chart of viscose staple fiber price

According to the price monitoring of the business club, as of June 19, 2022, the ex factory quotation of 1.2d*38mm viscose staple fiber in China was 15660 yuan / ton, which was steadily rising, up 20 yuan / ton compared with the price at the beginning of last week (June 13). The price of cotton yarn is stable at a high level (30s, ring spinning, first-class product). The average ex factory price is 19166 yuan / ton.

According to the analysis of the reasons, the cost is good. The market price of raw material dissolving pulp is high. The production cost of viscose staple fiber remains high as a whole. The export of viscose staple fiber is good. Because the export price is higher than the domestic price and the economic benefit is good, some enterprises are more enthusiastic about export. The supply of viscose staple fiber has maintained a tight balance. Recently, the inventory has declined rapidly, and the manufacturer is cautious.

Downstream cotton yarn Market

Due to the gradual withdrawal of low-cost viscose staple fiber supply from the market, the average price of viscose staple fiber used by the yarn factory has been at 15500 yuan / ton. Due to the rising cost of raw materials, the high price of cotton yarn is stable, and it is expected that the price of cotton yarn is expected to rise. The price of viscose staple fiber is still based on the price of 16000 yuan / ton.

Aftermarket forecast

Recently, foreign dissolving pulp devices have changed greatly, but the supply is still tight, the cost is pushed up, and it is difficult for viscose staple fiber factories to make concessions. However, the demand for textile terminals continues to be flat, and the trading has always been average. Analysts from the business community predict that the price of viscose staple fiber will run at a high level, which may continue to increase slightly.

This week (June 10 to June 17), the market price of 1# electrolytic manganese rose. The spot market price in East China was 16800 yuan / ton at the end of last week and 16800 yuan / ton at the end of this week, flat.

Manganese ore: this week, the manganese ore market fluctuated and the mood was low. As a whole, affected by the continuous callback of the downstream silicon manganese futures and spot market, some ore prices have loosened to a certain extent. Australia, Gabon and semi carbonic acid have all loosened at a low level of 0.5-1 yuan / ton. However, the prices of mainstream miners are relatively firm and the low price is clear.

This week, the electrolytic manganese market operated weakly and stably. The mainstream market quotation was 15300-15500 yuan / ton, unchanged from last week. In terms of steel bidding, Baosteel accepted 15900 yuan / ton of electrolytic manganese sheets including tax in June, with a quantity of 800 tons. The price of steel bidding boosted market confidence. This week, the market price increased slightly, but the overall transaction situation was general, and the market trading was relatively cold. On the whole, the supply and demand side of the market has not changed much. The game mentality of both parties is strong. It is expected that the market price will fluctuate slightly in the short term, and the upward space is limited.

In terms of manganese and silicon: this week, the domestic silicon and manganese futures fell along with the whole black sector, while the spot side showed a great advantage due to the point price of the disk, resulting in a very cold deal at the retail side. According to the price monitoring of the business agency, the average market price in Ningxia (specification: femn68si18) was 8060 yuan / ton on June 17, down 1.71% from Monday.

441# silicon price trend

This week, there was a strong bullish atmosphere for silicon metal. The early losses led to a strong willingness of silicon factories to raise prices. At the beginning of the week, large northern factories took the lead in raising prices, which led some small and medium-sized enterprises to follow. As of June 17, the price monitoring of the business community showed that the average price of 441\\; silicon metal market in China was 18540 yuan / ton, an increase of 8.48% over last week.

On the 17th, the prices of 441\\silicon in various regions are as follows:

The price range of \441 metallic silicon in Huangpu port area is 18500-18800 yuan / ton, with an average price of 18600 yuan / ton; The price range of \441 metallic silicon in Tianjin port is 18350-18750 yuan / ton, with an average price of 18550 yuan / ton; The price range of \441 metallic silicon in Kunming is 18100-18500 yuan / ton, with an average of 18300 yuan / ton; The price range of \441 metallic silicon in Sichuan is 18000-18350 yuan / ton, with an average of 18150 yuan / ton; The price range of Shanghai \441 metallic silicon is 18900-19200 yuan / ton, with an average price of 19100 yuan / ton.

Influencing factors of metal silicon price fluctuation

Month on month increase in exports

Overseas demand has improved relatively, but affected by the epidemic and the international situation, the export volume has weakened as a whole compared with last year. According to the customs data, China’s metal silicon export volume in May was 58000 tons, a slight increase of 7% month on month and a year-on-year decrease of 17%. From January to may 2022, the cumulative export volume of metallic silicon was 291900 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 12%.

Merchants are reluctant to sell

The continuous falling price is that the cost of metal silicon is obviously upside down. Some silicon plants have started to shut down the furnace for maintenance. This week, the price of metal silicon has increased significantly. Stimulated by the bullish atmosphere, silicon plants have been reluctant to sell or cover the plate, resulting in tight market circulation of some specifications. In addition, the crazy jump for several days in a row has led to general acceptance of the price by downstream customers and less actual market transactions.

Demand side

The price of aluminum alloy ADC12 fell by 100 yuan / ton, and the mainstream quotation was 20000 yuan / ton. The price of metal silicon rose, which forced the operating rate of aluminum alloy down. It is learned from the aluminum factory that due to the unsatisfactory consumption, the inventory of metallic silicon was added less in the early stage. In the face of the price rise of metallic silicon, it was temporarily wait-and-see and mainly purchased on demand.

The reference market price of organosilicon DMC is 21120 yuan / ton. The overall market price moves downward. The orders for metallic silicon in June have been basically signed. The downstream demand of organosilicon is generally followed up, which hinders the purchase of metallic silicon.

 
The mainstream transaction price of polysilicon is in the range of 225000-235000 yuan / ton, and the market operates stably as a whole. Up to now, most devices of domestic silicon material manufacturers have started normally.

Aftermarket forecast

Stimulated by the bullish mentality, the silicon plant is obviously reluctant to sell. Under the guidance of the psychology of buying up but not buying down, the inquiry in the downstream is significantly increased, while the downstream is more cautious about the high price operation. The profits of both sides are damaged in the stalemate game, and the continuous stalemate is unprofitable for both upstream and downstream. It is expected that the subjective rise of metal silicon is still expected in the short term, but the actual transaction price or lack of upward momentum.

According to the data of business agency, on June 17, the average p value of oil based ethylene glycol was 5191.67 yuan / ton, an increase of 31.67 yuan / ton compared with the previous statistical cycle.

In terms of inventory, as of June 16, the total inventory of ethylene glycol in the main ports of East China was 1178500 tons, an increase of 28700 tons, or 2.50%, compared with last Thursday, and an increase of 30400 tons, or 2.65%, compared with this Monday.

In terms of devices, the 400000 ton ethylene glycol unit of Xinhang energy currently has one line shut down and is expected to restart next Monday; The overhaul plan of Hubei sanning 600000 ton ethylene glycol plant originally scheduled for July has been postponed to August / September; The restart of Yangzi and Maoming Petrochemical units was delayed; Shanxi woneng 300000 ton plant was shut down on June 15, with a plan of about 20 days; Yangmei Shouyang 200000 ton unit is planned to be overhauled at the end of June.

Upstream, oil prices rose on Friday, supported by tight supply and new sanctions against Iran. However, as the major central banks raised interest rates and raised concerns about the sharp economic slowdown, market participants also shifted their attention from the impact of crude oil supply to the impact of the macro environment.

Due to the coming peak of coal consumption in summer, the shortage of resources drives the coal price up, the profit of coal based ethylene glycol enterprises drops, and the operating rate of manufacturers declines. However, from the perspective of the current ethylene glycol of about 5100 yuan / ton and ethylene oxide of 7350 yuan / ton, the economics of the two are similar, the significance of profit regulation is not obvious, and the market supply is wide. The recent negotiation price of ships and cargoes in the week is to maintain a narrow range around 640 dollars / ton.

The maintenance of downstream polyester plant increased, the operating rate within the week dropped slightly to around 83%, the polyester production and sales were still light, and the manufacturer’s inventory pressure remained.

Forecast: there is no substantial positive stimulus on the demand side in the near future, and the glycol is mainly subject to range fluctuation.

Price trend

According to the bulk list data of the business community, the domestic PA66 market has maintained a weak downward trend recently, and the spot prices of various brands have been reduced. As of June 16, the ex factory price of PA66 adhesive injection molding sample enterprises of the business club was about 23750 yuan / ton on average, up or down by -7.77% compared with the average price at the beginning of the month.

Cause analysis

Industrial chain: on the upstream side, the domestic adipic acid price this week rebounded and rose due to the cost benefit. On the demand side, the adipic acid trading is not ideal, the domestic supply is abundant, and the port arrival level is average, so the overall support effect on PA66 spot is limited.

The upstream raw material adipic acid market has recovered, adiponitrile market is in abundant supply, and PA66 cost side support is poor. In terms of industrial operating rate, due to the continuous pressure on the profits of PA66 enterprises, the load level of domestic PA66 industry also decreased this week, but generally speaking, the range is limited. The spot supply in the market is abundant, and the supply pressure is difficult to solve. The inventory position of the port is acceptable, and the arrival volume of overseas goods is general. On the demand side, at present, the terminal enterprises tend to follow up with the goods to maintain production, and have strong resistance to the high price supply. Health incidents in East China have eased significantly, and logistics in many places has gradually recovered. However, the demand of domestic downstream factories has shrunk. In addition, the operating rate of terminal enterprises in the off-season is low, the contradiction between supply and demand is prominent, and merchants have great resistance to shipping. The transaction on the floor declined, and the seller’s mentality was not good, so he continued to give up profits.

Aftermarket forecast

According to the analysts of business agency, the spot price of PA66 fell this week. The adiponitrile market at the raw material end has improved, and the cost side support of PA66 is average. The load of PA66 enterprises was reduced in a narrow range, the pattern of sufficient supply in the yard remained unchanged, and the inventory pressure of enterprises and midstream increased. The demand side is short of goods, so it is expected that PA66 will continue to be affected by the contradiction between supply and demand in the short term.