According to the data monitored by the business club, as of June 10, the price of lithium iron phosphate, a high-class power product, was 155000 yuan / ton. It was mainly purchased in the downstream. The purchasing atmosphere was general, and the overall market was running smoothly. At present, the supply of manufacturers is still tight, and the supply side is obviously insufficient. It is mainly arranged and delivered by contracted customers. The number of new orders is limited. The overall market negotiation atmosphere is acceptable, the price remains high, and the upstream remains high, The price of lithium iron phosphate continues to rise, and the cost pressure remains.

 

PVA 2699

Upstream lithium carbonate: as of June 9, the average price of industrial lithium carbonate in East China was 454000 yuan / ton, an increase of 0.67% compared with the average price at the beginning of the week (the average price of industrial lithium carbonate in East China was 451000 yuan / ton on June 5). On June 9, the average price of battery grade lithium carbonate in East China was 472000 yuan / ton, an increase of 0.21% compared with the average price at the beginning of the week (on May 15, the average price of battery grade lithium carbonate in East China was 471000 yuan / ton).

 

POLYVINYL ALCOHOL

Chemical commodity index: on June 9, the chemical industry index was 1222 points, up 3 points from yesterday, down 12.71% from the highest point of 1400 points in the cycle (2021-10-23), and up 104.35% from the lowest point of 598 points on April 8, 2020. (Note: the period refers to 2011-12-01 to now).

 

According to the analysts of business club, the stable operation of lithium iron phosphate is the main factor in the short term, and the price fluctuation range is small. (if you want to get more commodity information and master commodity prices, you are welcome to subscribe to the commodities of the business club through the official account of the business club. The market is an opportunity).

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According to the monitoring data of business agency, as of June 13, the reference average price of 30% grade phosphorus ore in mainstream areas in China was around 1010 yuan / ton. Compared with June 12 (the reference price of phosphate rock was 976 yuan / ton), the price increased by 34 yuan / ton, or 3.41%, and compared with June 1 (the reference price of phosphate rock was 910 yuan / ton), the price increased by 100 yuan / ton, or 10.99%.

 

PVA 1799 (PVA BF17)

It can be seen from the data monitoring chart of the business community that in June, China’s domestic phosphate ore market as a whole operated steadily upward, and the on-site supply tension continued. Domestic mining enterprises in many regions mainly used phosphate ore for their own use, and basically suspended sales externally. Some mining enterprises delivered goods to contract users. Some mining enterprises in Guizhou stopped mining, suspended external quotation, and the on-site circulation was tight. On June 13, The focus of the domestic phosphate ore market is moving closer to the high-end as a whole. The market price of 30% grade phosphate ore has broken through the 1000 yuan mark, with reference to around 1010 yuan / ton, and the high-end price is around 1100 yuan / ton. At present, the continuous supply shortage in the phosphate ore field is the main reason. Although China’s phosphate ore storage is large, with years of mining, the resources continue to decrease, and the average grade is also declining. At present, there is a strong bullish atmosphere in enterprises. In terms of import and export, according to the customs data, there was no import of phosphate rock in April 2022. In April 2022, the export volume of phosphate rock was 40151.19 tons.

 

POLYVINYL ALCOHOL

In terms of downstream yellow phosphorus, recently, the domestic yellow phosphorus market has basically operated stably. At present, the yellow phosphorus enterprises have started stably, and many manufacturers supply early orders. The delivery of yellow phosphorus is OK, basically without pressure. The manufacturers mainly support the price, and most of them stabilize. Downstream purchase on demand. Up to now, the mainstream quotation of Yunnan yellow phosphorus is about 38000 yuan / ton; The mainstream quotation of Guizhou yellow phosphorus is about 38000 yuan / ton. According to the monitoring data of the business agency, on June 13, the reference price of yellow phosphorus was 38666.67 yuan / ton, a decrease of 1.28% compared with that on June 1 (39166.67 yuan / ton).

 

Forecast and analysis of future trend of phosphate rock

 

At present, the phosphorus ore market price is supported by tight supply, the market is running at a high level, the spot supply in the market is insufficient, and it is mainly to receive the scheduled orders. The phosphorus ore data division of the business society believes that in the short term, the domestic phosphorus ore market will continue to operate at a high level and strong, and the specific trend needs to pay more attention to the specific changes in the supply and demand side.

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1、 Price data

 

PVA 2088 (PVA BP20)

According to the data in the bulk list of business agency, the price of petroleum coke from local refiners continued to rise this week. On June 12, the average price in Shandong market was 4603.00 yuan / ton, up 3.18% from 4461.00 yuan / ton on June 6.

 

On June 12, the commodity index of petroleum coke was 358.01, unchanged from yesterday, down 12.40% from the highest point 408.70 in the cycle (2022-05-11), and up 435.22% from the lowest point 66.89 on March 28, 2016. (Note: the period refers to 2012-09-30 to now)

 

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

 

This week, the price of petroleum coke in the refinery continued to rise, the refinery shipped well, and downstream enterprises purchased actively.

 

POLYVINYL ALCOHOL

Upstream: as the international crude oil price rises, the EU’s oil ban on sanctions against Russia has been delayed, and the expectation of tight supply remains unchanged. With the arrival of summer driving season in the United States, demand is expected to improve, and supply and demand fundamentals are still good for oil prices. At present, it is in the peak season of traditional consumption of crude oil, and it is also a season of high incidence of extreme weather such as hurricanes. Crude oil has a great tendency to hit a new high again, and the rise of international oil prices is unabated.

 

Downstream: the price of calcined coke fell this week; The market price of metallic silicon decreased slightly; The price of downstream electrolytic aluminum was lowered. As of June 12, the price was 20516.67 yuan / ton. At present, the supply of petroleum coke in the market has increased, but the inventory of refineries is low and downstream procurement is active.

 

According to the petroleum coke analyst of business agency, the petroleum coke price of local refining enterprises was corrected this week, the refinery shipped actively, the inventory was low, and the downstream procurement was active. It is expected that the price of refined petroleum coke may continue to rise in the near future.

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According to the data monitored by the business club, as of June 10, the average price of domestic industrial grade high-quality product cyclohexane was 9133.33 yuan / ton this week. The price of cyclohexane this week was mainly stable. At present, the operating rate is normal, the logistics is smooth, the transaction atmosphere is general, the negotiation atmosphere is stable, the quotation range of mainstream manufacturers is about 9100 yuan / ton, the purchasing atmosphere is general, the main thing is to maintain stable operation, the focus of negotiation is stable, and the price fluctuation range this week is small.

 

PVA 2699

From June 4 to June 10, the average price of domestic industrial grade superior product cyclohexane was 9133.33 yuan / ton, and the quotation range of mainstream manufacturers remained about 9200 yuan / ton. The overall market supply and demand of cyclohexane was balanced, and the downstream just needed to purchase. The focus of negotiation was stable, and the supply side was normal. The latest prices of enterprises: 9500 yuan / ton for Shanghai Likai Chemical Technology Co., Ltd., 9200 yuan / ton for Shandong Zhiying new materials Co., Ltd., and 9200 yuan / ton for Pande (Shanghai) International Trade Co., Ltd, Jiangsu Leien Environmental Protection Technology Co., Ltd. is 9200 yuan / ton, and Wuhan Jixin Yibang Biotechnology Co., Ltd. is 9200 yuan / ton.

 

Upstream pure benzene: as of June 6, East China: Yangzi Petrochemical offered 9500 yuan / ton; South China: Hainan Refining & Chemical Co., Ltd. offers 9500 yuan / ton; Central China: Wuhan ethylene is priced at 9500 yuan / ton, and Changling Refining & Chemical is priced at 9500 yuan / ton. The pure benzene market mainly operates smoothly.

 

POLYVINYL ALCOHOL

Chemical industry index: on June 9, the chemical industry index was 1222 points, up 3 points from yesterday, down 12.71% from the highest point of 1400 points in the cycle (2021-10-23), and up 104.35% from the lowest point of 598 points on April 8, 2020. (Note: the period refers to 2011-12-01 to now)

 

According to the cyclohexane analyst of business agency, it is expected that the cyclohexane market will operate smoothly in the short term, and the overall market supply and demand will be balanced. (if you want to get more commodity information and master commodity prices, you are welcome to subscribe to the commodities of the business club through the official account of the business club. The market is an opportunity).

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According to the monitoring data of the business agency, the domestic price of LLDPE (7042) was 9025.00 yuan / ton on June 1, and the average price was 9150.00 yuan / ton on June 9. During this period, the increase was 1.39%, 1.67% higher than that on May 1.

 

PVA 1799 (PVA BF17)

According to the monitoring data of business agency, the average ex factory price of LDPE (2426h) was 11366.67 yuan / ton on June 1, and 11433.33 yuan / ton on June 9. During this period, the increase rate was 0.59%, down 2.70% compared with May 1.

 

According to the monitoring data of business agency, the average ex factory price of HDPE (5000S) was 9716.67 yuan / ton on June 1, and 9750.00 yuan / ton on June 9. During this period, the increase rate was 0.34%, down 1.18% compared with May 1.

 

In June, the domestic polyethylene market price rebounded, and the three major varieties all rose to varying degrees, dominated by favorable market conditions, of which LLDPE rose the most significantly. At the beginning of the month, the international crude oil price rose violently, and the price was at a high level. The cost side brought obvious support to the market. Most of the ex factory prices of petrochemical enterprises have been raised, and the market mentality is good, and the prices of businesses have risen. However, there are still negative factors in the market. In the off-season of demand, the downstream maintains replenishment on demand, and the market trading atmosphere is general, which has brought some restraint to the rising market.

 

POLYVINYL ALCOHOL

On June 9, the opening price of polyethylene futures 2209 was 9189, the highest price was 9250, the lowest price was 9104, the closing price was 9118, the former settlement price was 9099, the settlement price was 9185, up 19, the trading volume was 442246, the position was 386532, and the daily position increase was -330. (quotation unit: yuan / ton)

 

At present, the international crude oil price is strong, and the cost side brings obvious support. In addition, the Shanghai market has resumed production, and the demand has recovered. However, due to the impact of the off-season, the overall terminal demand is weak, the trading atmosphere is general, and the negative factors are still obvious, which has brought some restraint to the market. It is expected that the PE spot market will rise steadily in the short term.

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On June 8, under the pressure of cost, the price of viscose staple fiber remained high. The quotation of 1.2d*38mm manufacturers was about 15500, and the supply remained in a tight balance. The factory mainly delivered the contract orders signed in the early delivery period and overseas orders. The cotton yarn price of downstream people has risen steadily. The main reason for the rise is that the factory has started to use viscose staple fiber with high price, which is caused by the substantial rise in cost. The shipment is general, the downstream orders are limited, and the yarn inventory is still large.

 

PVA 2699

Trend chart of viscose staple fiber price

 

According to the price monitoring of the business club, as of June 8, 2022, the ex factory price of 1.2d*38mm viscose staple fiber in China is 15560 yuan / ton, and the average ex factory price of cotton yarn (30s, ring spinning, first-class products) is 19100 yuan / ton, which is stable.

 

Supply and demand market

 

POLYVINYL ALCOHOL

Recently, the overseas market is good, the domestic market trading atmosphere is general, and the supply of viscose staple fiber maintains a tight balance. However, the price of viscose staple fiber conducted by the yarn factory is limited, the terminal demand has not improved, and the downstream orders are limited. At present, the finished cotton yarn has accumulated in stock, local logistics is not smooth, the spot delivery of the yarn factory is still blocked, and the price negotiation is high.

 

Aftermarket forecast

 

Recently, foreign dissolving pulp devices have changed greatly, but the supply is still tight, the cost is pushed up, and it is difficult for viscose staple fiber factories to make concessions. However, the demand for textile terminals continues to be flat, difficult to improve, and the trading and investment has always been average. Analysts from the business community predict that the price of viscose staple fiber will be stable, medium and strong, and high.

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It can be seen from the above figure that the mainstream market price of urea in China rose first and then fell this month: the urea price first rose from 3046.00 yuan / ton on May 1 to 3275.00 yuan / ton on May 14, an increase of 7.52%, and then fell to 3201.00 yuan / ton on May 30, a decrease of 2.26%. In May, the overall urea price rose by 5.09%, 36.02% year-on-year compared with the same period last year, and there was a downward trend at the end of the month.

 

PVA 2699

On May 29, the urea commodity index was 149.77, the same as yesterday, down 1.68% from 152.33, the highest point in the cycle (May 15, 2022), and up 169.37% from 55.60, the lowest point on August 17, 2016. (Note: the period refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to now)

 

In May, urea prices rose slightly, with the highest increase of 4.10% in a single week.

The upstream support is weakened, the downstream demand is good, and the urea price rises

 

POLYVINYL ALCOHOL

From the upstream and downstream industrial chain data, the upstream products of urea fell slightly this month as a whole: the price of liquefied natural gas fell slightly, from 7208.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month to 6688.00 yuan / ton at the end of the month, a decrease of 7.21%, an increase of 91.45% year-on-year compared with the same period last year. High coal price consolidation. The price of melamine in the downstream of urea fell slightly this month, from 10166.67 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month to 10025.00 yuan / ton at the end of the month, a decrease of 1.39%.

 

In terms of demand, agricultural demand follows up on demand, while industrial demand is dominated by rigid demand. The wheat harvest is coming in the north, the agricultural demand is weakening, and some areas in the northeast and South purchase on demand. The wait-and-see atmosphere of compound fertilizer and rubber plate factories towards high priced urea is becoming stronger, the procurement slows down, the price of melamine drops slightly, and the enthusiasm for urea procurement is weakened. From the perspective of supply, the daily output of urea is about 150000-160000 tons, with a slight decline, and the urea inventory is at a low level.

 

The upstream support weakened, the downstream demand was general, and urea fell in a narrow range

 

In the middle and first ten days of June, the urea market fell slightly, mainly due to consolidation. Recently, the upstream cost support of urea has weakened, the downstream demand is general, the just demand is the main factor, the urea supply has declined, the fertilizer supply is mainly stable, and the urea will fluctuate slightly in the future.

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In May, the domestic ethanol market was at a high level. According to the sample data monitored by the business club, the price at the beginning of the month was 7437 yuan / ton, and the price at the end of the month was 7533 yuan / ton, with a monthly increase of 1.29% and a year-on-year increase of 10.99%.

 

Annual comparison chart of ethanol prices from 2018 to 2022:

 

PVA 2088 (PVA BP20)

At the beginning of the month, the recent rise in the price of raw corn brought cost support to the industry. Regionalization trend of domestic ethanol Market: large factories in Heilongjiang region received orders well, and the offer rose by 50 yuan / ton; The supply of large factories in Jilin gradually recovered, and the offer rose by 100 yuan / ton. East China is slightly weak, and the downstream chemical demand at the high price point is average. In Henan Province, the demand for high price points is limited, and some people have heard of individual low prices. The South China market has been operating steadily, and the low prices of some factories have decreased, but the buying still maintains the demand, so the market may have little room for substantial fluctuations.

 

In the first ten days of the month, the cost of ethanol was rising, the cost pressure of enterprises was increasing, the low price was reluctant to sell, the short-term inventory of ethanol enterprises was not high, and the market transaction was average. There are slight differences in the market conditions in various regions: the market in Henan fell first and then rose. After the factory made profit, the shipment improved, and the price rose immediately. There are many orders from large factories in Heilongjiang, Northeast China, and the prices of enterprises are raised by 50 yuan / ton. Small factories have a positive attitude towards shipping, and there are low prices in the market. The output of Jilin large factory increased, the orders were delivered, the food inventory was not high, and the enterprise quotation increased by 100 yuan / ton.

 

In late June, the prices of raw corn, cassava and molasses were strong, and the short-term ethanol market had strong cost support. As the weather warms up, the demand for Baijiu and chemical industry in the downstream gradually enters the off-season, and it is difficult to make a significant change in the demand in the near future. In addition, at this stage, the price of ethanol is at a high level, and the downstream will continue to maintain the rigid demand for procurement in the short term.

 

Monthly K column chart of domestic production price of ethanol:

 

Weekly K column chart of ethanol domestic production price of Business Club:

 

According to the price monitoring of the trading society, in April 2022, 41 commodities in the chemical industry sector rose month on month in the list of bulk commodity prices, of which 9 commodities increased by more than 5%, accounting for 8.2% of the monitored commodities in the sector; The top 3 commodities were formic acid (36.15%), caustic soda (13.35%) and flake soda (9.32%). A total of 66 commodities fell month on month, and 29 commodities fell by more than 5%, accounting for 26.4% of the monitored commodities in this sector; The products with the top three declines were propylene glycol (-20.05%), acetic acid (-18.39%) and glycine (-16.77%). The average increase or decrease in this month was -1.87%.

 

Comparison chart of corn (upstream raw material) and ethanol price trend of business community:

 

POLYVINYL ALCOHOL

Comparison chart of price trend of ethanol and ethyl acetate (downstream products) of Business Club:

 

As of May 30, the latest price dynamics of ethanol market in various regions:

 

Region, Category, Price

Sichuan region, Corn alcohol, 8100 yuan / ton ex factory tax included

Yunnan region, Molasses alcohol, Execute the order without quotation

Guangxi, Honey alcohol, Out of stock

Guangxi, Corn / Cassava 95% alcohol ., 7650-7800 yuan / ton

Guangxi, Anhydrous ethanol ., 8350-8450 yuan / ton self delivery

Guangdong, Corn alcohol ., 7700-7750 yuan / ton self delivery

Guangdong, Rice / Cassava general ethanol, 7700 yuan / ton self delivery

Guangdong, Anhydrous cassava ethanol, 8450 yuan / ton Dongguan self delivery

Henan region, Superior ., 7400-7400 yuan / ton, ex factory tax included

Henan region, Anhydrous ethanol, 8200-8250 yuan / ton, ex factory tax included

Hebei region, General grade, 7350-7400 yuan / ton, tax included

Shandong region, Common wheat, 7400-7450 yuan / ton

Shandong region, Superior corn, 7800 yuan / ton

Shandong region, Corn has no water, 8300-8400 yuan / ton

Southern Jiangsu, General grade, 7600-7700 yuan / ton

Northern Jiangsu, General grade, 7350-7400 yuan / ton

Northern Jiangsu, Superior, 7500-7550 yuan / ton

Northern Jiangsu, No water, 8300-8400 yuan / ton

Anhui region, General grade, 7500-7600 yuan / ton, ex factory tax included

Anhui region, No water, 8350 yuan / ton ex factory tax included

Jinzhou District, Liaoning Province, Corn alcohol general grade, 7400-7500 yuan / ton

Heilongjiang region, General grade, 6850-7050 yuan / ton, tax included

Heilongjiang region, Anhydrous ethanol, 7850-7950 yuan / ton

Jilin region, Ordinary alcohol, 7200-7250 yuan / ton, ex factory tax included

Jilin region, Premium alcohol, 7300-7350 yuan / ton ex factory tax included

Jilin region, Anhydrous ethanol, 8050-8300 yuan / ton, ex factory tax included

 

The high level of raw materials is strong, which will support the ethanol market. The supply in some regions has not been fully restored, and the price is supported in a short term or with intention. The supply in some regions increased, but the demand follow-up was average. The ethanol analysts of the business agency expect that the domestic ethanol market will be mainly sorted out in the short term.

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In May, the domestic methanol market was still depressed. Although the rebound of raw coal prices has been supported, the low price of imported goods and the stalemate of downstream negotiations have limited the fluctuation of methanol prices. According to the monitoring data of the business agency, the average price of domestic methanol production enterprises was 2745 yuan / ton at the beginning of May, and 2617 yuan / ton at the end of May. The price fell by 4.64% during the month and 2.06% year-on-year.

 

PVA 1799 (PVA BF17)

According to the price monitoring of the business community, in April 2022, there were 10 kinds of commodities in the energy sector that rose month on month in the list of bulk commodity prices, including 4 kinds of commodities that rose by more than 5%, accounting for 25% of the monitored commodities in the sector; The commodities with the top three increases were coke (11.98%), coking coal (10.15%) and WTI crude oil (5.07%). There are 5 commodities with a month on month decrease, and 1 commodity with a decrease of more than 5%, accounting for 6.3% of the monitored commodities in this sector; The products with the top three declines were methanol (-10.59%), naphtha (-3.67%) and MTBE (-2.37%). This month, the average increase or decrease was 1.38%.

 

Comparison chart of methanol price trend of business club from 2018 to 2022:

 

Summary of methanol market prices in various regions as of May 31:

 

Region, Price

Qinghai region, No quotation

Shanxi region, Mainstream: 2510-2540 yuan / ton

Liaoning region, 2740 yuan / ton to cash exchange

Fujian, Mainstream Negotiation: 2810-2850 yuan / ton

Two lakes region, Negotiation reference: about 2700-2750 yuan / ton

Anhui region, The mainstream negotiation is about 2750-2780 yuan / ton

Henan region, About 2570-2590 yuan / ton

 

At the beginning of the month, the domestic methanol market rebounded after falling, but the transaction volume was poor. The poor shipment made the factory reduce the price and continue to ship, but it is still difficult to increase the quantity. The market just needs to replenish.

 

In the first ten days of January, the domestic methanol market rose weakly and fluctuated in a narrow range. Although the rebound of crude oil in the first half of the week caused the methanol futures to rise synchronously and break through 2800 yuan / ton in the session, the rising supply made the industry generally have low expectations for the future market. At the beginning of the week, the ex factory offer of the main production enterprises in the main production area was raised, but the spot gas purchase was general, the demand was mainly long, the overall shipment was general, and the downstream receiving price could not be pushed up.

 

In late June, the raw coal price and oil price were strong, and the downstream Tianjin Bohai Chemical MTO was expected to be put into operation. At present, the supply side is relatively abundant. In the current situation, the game between supply and demand.

 

Monthly K column chart of methanol domestic production price of Business Club:

 

Weekly K column chart of methanol domestic production price of Business Club:

 

On the whole, the near end methanol overhaul capacity is concentrated, the downstream MTO starts to decline, and the supply and demand is weakened periodically. In terms of valuation, coal prices rose to a high level, some enterprises suffered serious losses, downstream olefin profits were acceptable, methanol valuation was low, and methanol downside space was limited under the support of short-term costs.

 

Comparison chart of coal (upstream product) and methanol price trend of shanghaishe:

 

Comparison chart of price trend of methanol and dimethyl ether (downstream products) of Business Club:

 

Comparison chart of methanol and formaldehyde (downstream products) price trend of Business Club:

 

POLYVINYL ALCOHOL

Comparison chart of price trend of methanol and ethyl acetate (downstream products) of Business Club:

 

In the external market, as of the closing on May 27, CFR Southeast Asia methanol market closed at $413.50-414.5/t, up $5 / T. The closing price of US Gulf methanol market is 97.50-98.00 cents / gallon; The closing price of FOB Rotterdam methanol market was 372.005-372.50 euros / ton, up 5 euros / ton.

 

region ., country., Closing price, Up and down

Asia, CFR Southeast Asia, 413.50-414.5 USD / ton, USD 5 / ton

Europe and America ., US Gulf ., 97.50-98.00 cents / gallon, 0 cents / gallon

Europe ., FOB Rotterdam ., 372.005-372.50 euros / ton, 5 euro / ton

The crude oil is expected to fluctuate at a high level, the peak of coal and electricity consumption is approaching, and the price constraint is weakened after the dual track operation of coal, which has strengthened the role of supporting the bottom of methanol. The methanol analysts of the business society predict that the methanol market may be expected to be corrected in a narrow range.

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The raw material cost continued to support, and the ammonium chloride market continued to rise in May. According to the monitoring data of business agency, the price of ammonium chloride was around 1445 yuan / ton at the beginning of May, and 1527 yuan / ton at the end of May, an increase of 5.71%.

 

PVA 0599 (PVA BF05)

In May, the price of raw liquid ammonia rose slightly, and the cost continued to support. According to the monitoring of business agency, as of May 31, the price of domestic liquid ammonia was 5306 yuan / ton, up 4.74% from 5066 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month.

 

In May, the price of urea continued to rise, which continued to support ammonium chloride. As of May 31, the domestic urea price was 3201 yuan / ton, up 5.09% from 3046 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month

 

POLYVINYL ALCOHOL

Although the demand has gradually entered the off-season, on the one hand, the high raw material prices and strong cost support; On the other hand, less than 80% of the combined caustic soda industry has been started. In addition, the low load of enterprises in some areas is tight, and June and July are the traditional maintenance seasons. The supply side is expected to continue to reduce. The current situation and expectation of tight supply promote the ammonium chloride market to continue to rise at a high level in May.

 

Aftermarket forecast: the ammonium chloride analysts of the business society believe that the current cost and supply support of ammonium chloride will continue; On the other hand, spring ploughing has been gradually completed. It is expected that the ammonium chloride market will fluctuate at a high level in June.

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