1、 Price trend

According to commodity data monitoring, titanium dioxide prices fell this week. Last week, the average price of titanium dioxide in the four countries was 20083.33 yuan / ton, and this Thursday, the average price was 19000 yuan / ton, with a decrease of 5.39% in the week.

2、 Market analysis

The domestic titanium dioxide market price continued to decline this week. On the whole, the export market is OK. Domestic titanium dioxide is in the off-season, the market trading is relatively light, the market is weak, and the downstream wait-and-see mood is strong. Purchase on demand and take it with you. Titanium dioxide manufacturers have great inventory pressure, and the ex factory price has been reduced. Up to now, the quotation of rutile titanium dioxide in China is between 17800-20000 yuan / ton; The quotation of anatase titanium dioxide is between 16500-18500 yuan / ton.

In terms of titanium concentrate, the price of titanium concentrate in Panxi region was strong this week. The titanium market is OK, the market supply is tight, and the inquiry is general. Small and medium-sized miners are under great pressure, and their quotations are firm and stable. Up to now, the quotation excluding tax of 38-42 grade titanium ore is about 1530-1580 yuan / ton, the quotation excluding tax of 46 grade 10 titanium ore is about 2220-2280 yuan / ton, and the quotation of 47 grade 20 ore is about 2400-2450 yuan / ton. In the short term, the market price of titanium concentrate remains strong, and the transaction price of the actual order is negotiated.

In terms of sulfuric acid, the prices of mainstream domestic sulfuric acid manufacturers fell this week. According to the monitoring of bulk commodity data, the domestic sulfuric acid market price fell this week, and the quotation was reduced from 970 yuan / ton last Thursday to 922 yuan / ton this Thursday, with a reduction rate of 4.95%. The upstream sulfur market has fallen sharply recently, and the cost support is insufficient. Downstream hydrofluoric acid, titanium dioxide, ammonium sulfate market fell slightly, downstream customers’ enthusiasm for sulfuric acid procurement is general.

3、 Aftermarket forecast

Titanium dioxide analysts at business club believe that the domestic titanium dioxide market price continues to decline this week, the domestic market is cold, and the downstream demand is light. The price of raw titanium concentrate was relatively deadlocked, the price of sulfuric acid fell, and the cost support was weak. It is expected that the titanium dioxide market will be dominated by weak and stable operation in the short term, and the actual transaction price will be negotiated.

According to the monitoring data of the business community, the acrylonitrile market fell in the first ten days of July. As of July 10, the acrylonitrile price was 10700 yuan / ton, down 0.9% from 10860 yuan / ton on July 1. The supply side of domestic acrylonitrile industry is still in a loose state, the market transaction is deadlocked, and traders sell inventory at a low price.

In the first ten days of July, the price of raw propylene fell, and the cost support weakened. According to the monitoring of business agency, as of July 10, the domestic propylene price was 7460 yuan / ton, down 2.86% from 7680 yuan / ton on July 1.

Since July, the operating rate of downstream ABS has fallen to around 80%, and the operating rate of acrylic fiber and acrylamide industries has declined slightly, with a slightly weak demand side, but there is still some support for acrylonitrile; Acrylonitrile supply side continues to be under pressure.

Future forecast: the acrylonitrile analyst of business club believes that the current supply pressure restricts the action force of acrylonitrile, and it is difficult to change in the short term. It is expected that the acrylonitrile price will continue to fluctuate at a low level in the later period.

According to the data monitored by the business agency, as of July 12, the average quotation price of domestic premium DMF enterprises was 11000.00 yuan / ton, and the DMF price fell in a narrow range. Compared with the price at the beginning of the week, there was no significant change. In the short term, the DMF market was mainly stable.

As of July 12, the domestic DMF price has been running smoothly. At present, the mainstream price range is 10500-11000 yuan / ton. The transaction atmosphere is acceptable, the negotiation atmosphere is positive, the manufacturer’s shipment is smooth, the downstream just needs to purchase, and the logistics is smooth.

Upstream methanol: on July 11, the average price of domestic methanol market was 2397 yuan / ton, down 2.80% from the previous trading day and 5.33% year-on-year. On July 11, methanol futures in Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange were weak and volatile. The main contract ma2209 closed at 2401 yuan / ton at the end of the day, down 84 yuan / ton or 5.40% from the closing of the previous trading day, leading the futures commodity market on the day. In terms of spot goods, at present, the supply side of methanol is abundant, and the demand side is relatively low, so it is difficult to have a significant opening in the short term. In the short term, the domestic methanol market continued to be depressed, mainly finishing..

Chemical commodity index: on July 11, the chemical index was 1099 points, down 31 points from yesterday, down 21.50% from the highest point of 1400 points in the cycle (2021-10-23), and up 83.78% from the lowest point of 598 points on April 8, 2020. (Note: the period refers to 2011-12-01 to now)

DMF analysts of business agency believe that in the short term, the DMF market will mainly operate smoothly, and the price is 10700 yuan / ton. (if you want to know more about the latest market trends of the industrial chain, please pay attention to the official account of the business club to obtain commodity information and master commodity prices).

According to the data of business news agency, the average price of domestic fuel oil 180CST was 6620.00 yuan / ton (including tax) as of July 10, down 0.30% from 6640.00 yuan / ton on July 4.

On July 10, the fuel oil commodity index was 134.08, unchanged from yesterday, down 1.19% from 135.70, the highest point in the cycle (2022-06-21), and up 190.97% from 46.08, the lowest point on August 15, 2016. (Note: the period refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

The international crude oil price fell as a whole, and the cost support of ship fuel market was limited. According to the business news agency, as of July 10, the quotation of 180CST self extracting low sulfur fuel oil in Zhoushan area of zhongran was 6650 yuan / ton, and the quotation of 120cst self extracting low sulfur fuel oil was 6750 yuan / ton; The quotation of 180CST self extracting low sulfur fuel oil in Shanghai is 6550 yuan / ton, and the quotation of 120cst self extracting low sulfur fuel oil is 6650 yuan / ton.

The international crude oil price fell. Affected by high inflation and interest rate hike, the risk of economic recession will put pressure on oil prices. The game point of the future market is the supply shortage caused by geography and the economic recession risk that may be derived from the Fed’s interest rate hike. Taking into consideration, under the premise of tight supply and demand, the driving force of sharp decline is not very strong, but the oil market may intensify the shock in the future, the amplitude will increase, and the market risk will also increase.

The increase in fuel oil inventories in Singapore has limited support for fuel oil prices. It is understood that Singapore enterprise development authority (ESG): as of the week of July 6, Singapore’s fuel oil inventory increased by 640000 barrels to a four week high of 21.408 million barrels. Singapore’s medium distillate stocks fell by 259000 barrels to a four week low of 7.671 million barrels. Singapore’s light distillate oil inventory increased by 1.61 million barrels to 16.839 million barrels, the highest level since September 2020.

Aftermarket forecast: international crude oil fell as a whole this week, domestic ship fuel market costs fell, and suppliers’ shipments were blocked; The terminal demand of the market is weak, the receiving of goods is limited, and the overall transaction in the market is light, mainly just need to purchase. At present, the low sulfur market price of fuel oil 180CST is about 6600 yuan / ton, and the low sulfur market price of fuel oil 120cst is about 6700 yuan / ton, which is a single discussion. It is expected that the fuel oil 180CST market may be dominated by weakness in the near future.

According to the data monitored by the business club, the PP market continued to decline this week, and the spot price of wire drawing brand fell. As of July 8, the mainstream offer price of T30S (wire drawing) from domestic manufacturers and traders was about 8508.33 yuan / ton, up or down -1.16% compared with the average price at the beginning of the month.

Cause analysis

Industrial chain: upstream, the domestic propylene (Shandong) market price this week was low and temporarily stable, and the average market price in Shandong was stable at 7460 yuan / ton, down 7.44% from 30 days ago. Under the premise of supporting the bottom of the cost, the market supply is loose, the downstream rigid demand is dominated, and the price focus of propylene is still on the downward trend in the atmosphere of buying up but not buying down. The market is in a stalemate due to the long short game. Propylene market is expected to run at a low level in the near future.

Propylene prices fluctuated at a low level. Recently, crude oil fell under the influence of the Federal Reserve’s interest rate hike, and PP cost side support was weak this week. In terms of industry load, the operating rate of PP polymerization enterprises was adjusted in a narrow range in the early stage, and the real-time lost capacity was reduced. At present, there is a certain supply pressure. This week’s inventory digestion of enterprises and midstream. For example, last week, the inventory position increased, and was at the high position over the years. In terms of demand, the downstream factories of wire drawing materials purchase and follow-up are biased towards just need to maintain production. In terms of operation, they buy on bargain hunting and have a strong resistance to high price sources. Traders’ shipments are in line with the market, and the operating rate of terminal enterprises has decreased by a narrow margin. It is expected that the spot market of PP wire drawing materials may continue to be weak and adjusted.

In terms of fiber materials, according to the data monitored by the business society, as of July 8, the spot price of domestic fiber PP gradually fell. The mainstream offer price of Z30S (fiber) from domestic producers and traders was about 8416.67 yuan / ton, up or down -1.94% compared with the average price at the beginning of the month, with a year-on-year decrease of -1.94%. This week, the load of downstream non-woven enterprises, the main force of PP fiber, fell compared with last week. In terms of the demand and commencement of end enterprises, the overall continuation of large enterprises just need to take goods to maintain production, the product consumption maintained the off-season mode, and the replenishment operation was biased towards maintaining production. The load of small and medium-sized enterprises is low, and they often stop production. The demand for medical fiber products has also cooled, and the rigid support is weakened. The supply side is abundant, and the market momentum is reduced. It is expected that the fiber material may remain weak in the off-season market in the short term.

In terms of melt blown materials, the melt blown PP market fell this week. As of July 8, the average quotation of domestic melt blown material sample enterprises monitored by the business agency was about 9583.33 yuan / ton, up or down -0.17% compared with the average price at the beginning of the month. In terms of international health events, the current situation in various countries is still not optimistic. Recently, the number of confirmed cases in China has gradually decreased, and the epidemic prevention pressure has decreased. At the same time, medical meltblown cloth materials have entered the off-season of consumption, and the demand has decreased. The supply of melt blown materials in the market is sufficient, and the saturation of domestic melt blown materials and cloth enterprises is high. Together with the shipping resistance, it is expected that the recent market of melt blown PP may maintain a weak operation.

Aftermarket forecast

PP analysts of business agency believe that this week, the domestic polypropylene market fell, the raw material propylene market was low, the decline of international crude oil intensified, and the cost side support of PP weakened. The demand of terminal enterprises expands slowly, the mentality of merchants is general, and the offer is subject to the market. It is expected that the PP market may continue to be weak in the near future.

According to the monitoring data of the business community, since July, the terminal demand has been sluggish, the hydrogen peroxide market has weakened, and the weakness is mainly downward. At the beginning of the month, the average market price of hydrogen peroxide was 946 yuan / ton. On July 7, the average market price of hydrogen peroxide was 926 yuan / ton, down 2.11%.

Poor demand, hydrogen peroxide market down

Since July, the hydrogen peroxide market has been mainly weak, with the mainstream quotation falling below 950 yuan / ton. The main reason is that the terminal demand is poor, the market transaction is flat, and the manufacturers’ quotations have been reduced. The average market price of hydrogen peroxide is 930 yuan / ton, a decrease of more than 2%. The terminal demand continues to be sluggish, the hydrogen peroxide manufacturers start up normally, the supply exceeds the demand, and the market weakens.

On July 7, the hydrogen peroxide Market of some domestic manufacturers is as follows:

Li Bing, an hydrogen peroxide analyst at business agency, believes that the terminal demand is weak, and the hydrogen peroxide price will continue to weaken in the future.

On July 5, the price of international crude oil futures plummeted. The settlement price of the main contract of WTI crude oil futures in the United States was $99.50 / barrel, down $8.93 or 8.2%;, The settlement price of the main contract of Brent crude oil futures was $102.77 / barrel, down $10.73 or 9.5%. Oil prices recorded the largest one-day decline since March, with Brent down nearly 10%, mainly due to rising market concerns about the global economic recession, pressure on the commodity sector, and bearish energy commodities such as crude oil.

Why did the oil price suddenly plummet when it seemed that there was no major bad news in the market?

Whether from a macroeconomic perspective or from the perspective of future demand expectations, crude oil has continued to accumulate negative recently.

Judging from the inflation level in the United States, it has reached a 40 year high, so the expectation of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates is predictable for the future recession. We have observed that the US dollar index has also continued to rise. At present, it has reached a new high of nearly 20 years and has risen to 106.78 points. The appreciation of the US dollar first suppressed the valuation of US dollar denominated commodities. More importantly, the venture capital market is also performing badly, which will bring resonance effect to crude oil. On July 5, European and American stock markets fell sharply. The three major indexes of European stocks fell by more than 2%, and the three major indexes of American stocks fell by more than 1% during the session. Crude oil, gold, silver and other commodities fell indiscriminately.

According to the current market news, there were rumors of oil and gas workers’ strike in Norway before, because it was expected that Norwegian output would be interrupted, causing oil prices to rise. News on the 5th showed that the Norwegian government intervened and ended the strike. In addition, it is reported that US President Biden will go to Saudi Arabia to attend the summit with Gulf leaders in mid July. The purpose is still to urge oil producing countries to increase production. The market expects that Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates still have a certain capacity to increase production, and some other countries may have difficulties in increasing production. On the whole, the recent oil price has been negative from the news side.

Will the oil price never recover? Where will the oil price go in the future?

From the perspective of supply and demand, in the context of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, the geopolitical situation continued to deteriorate, and the expected background of tightening crude oil supply remained unchanged. From the perspective of the International Energy Agency (IEA) and the organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) on the oil market, the crude oil market is still in a tight balance in the later stage. In the second half of the year, with the expectation of fuel shortages in the driving season and winter in Europe and the United States, as well as the stable increase of Chinese demand in the post epidemic era, oil demand may still grow moderately, while the gap in Russia cannot be filled by oil producing countries in the short term.

However, in the long run, due to high inflation and interest rate hikes, the risk of economic recession will put pressure on oil prices. The game point of the future market is the supply shortage caused by geography and the economic recession risk that may be derived from the Fed’s interest rate hike. Taking into consideration, under the premise of tight supply and demand, the driving force of sharp decline is not very strong, but the oil market may intensify the shock in the future, the amplitude will increase, and the market risk will also increase.

The cost of raw materials continued to support, and the ammonium chloride market rose first and then stabilized in June. According to the monitoring data of business agency, the price of ammonium chloride was around 1527 yuan / ton at the beginning of June and 1590 yuan / ton at the end of June, up 4.09%.

At the beginning of the month, the prices of raw liquid ammonia and nitrogen fertilizer urea were high, which supported ammonium chloride from the perspective of cost and substitutability; From the middle and late part of the month, on the one hand, the pending orders of ammonium chloride enterprises are still sufficient, and most of them have been arranged until the end of the month; On the other hand, with the arrival of the off-season of fertilizer use, the downstream spot market is nearing the end of the procurement of ammonium chloride, and the market transaction is gradually declining. In addition, the prices of liquid ammonia and urea are lower, which has led to the loose offer of individual merchants of ammonium chloride and has a short impact on ammonium chloride.

In June, the price of raw liquid ammonia fell sharply, and the cost side weakened. According to the monitoring of business agency, as of June 30, the price of domestic liquid ammonia was 4790 yuan / ton, down 9.45% from 5290 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month. Prices in Shandong, Shanxi, Hebei, Henan and Hubei all fell to varying degrees, with a decline range of more than 500 yuan / ton. The market supply has changed, and the ammonia supply has increased. However, the demand for fertilizer in the downstream is weak, and the resistance to high prices has further suppressed some rigid demand. Lower downstream prices, terminal prices have also declined. According to the monitoring of business agency, as of June 30, the mainstream quotation range of liquid ammonia in Shandong is 4500-4750 yuan / ton

In June, the price of urea fell, and the support for ammonium chloride weakened. As of June 30, the domestic urea price was 3053 yuan / ton, down 4.62% from 3201 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month. Although the price of urea fell in June, it was still above 3000 yuan / ton, which still supported ammonium chloride from the perspective of price difference. From the perspective of demand: the agricultural demand is general, and the industrial demand is mainly rigid. The agricultural demand in some areas is supplemented appropriately. The enterprises of compound fertilizer and rubber plate factories started work in general, and just needed to purchase. The price of melamine fell slightly, and their enthusiasm for urea procurement weakened. From the perspective of supply: some manufacturers plan to overhaul recently, and the daily output of urea has decreased slightly, so the supply is relatively insufficient

On the one hand, the enterprises with maintenance plans in June include Zhongyan Kunshan, Xuzhou Fengcheng and Tongbai Haijing, involving a unit capacity of about 2.15 million tons. In the later stage, Jiangxi Jinghao, Jiangsu Shilian and Hunan Chongqing salinization also have maintenance plans, and there is little pressure on the supply side. On the other hand, the demand has gradually entered the off-season, coupled with the lower price of raw materials, the cost and demand side are relatively weak. So that ammonium chloride formed a stalemate in the middle and late June

Future forecast: the ammonium chloride analyst of business society believes that the current ammonium chloride industry chain is intertwined with long and short factors. Under the current weak demand, if the urea price is still strong in the later stage, the ammonium chloride price will continue to be high and strong, otherwise, the ammonium chloride city will enter the downward channel.

From June 24 to July 1, 2022, the production price of coal tar in Shanxi increased. The price was 5322.5 yuan / ton last weekend and 5387.5 yuan / ton this weekend, up 1.22%.

Summary of coal tar prices in Shanxi (unit: yuan / ton)

Region, Market price, Bidding price compared with last week

Linfen, 5370.,+80

Changzhi, 5400.,+110

Yuncheng, 5440.,+100

This week, the bidding price of coal tar in Shanxi Province is dominant. The price of coal tar in Shanxi Province is concentrated at 5300-5450 yuan / ton, which is significantly higher than that of last week. It is mainly boosted by the tight supply of tar. The bidding price rises as a whole. Under the pressure of high prices, the downstream is still dominated by on-demand procurement.

This week, the price of high-temperature coal tar continued to rise. Although the downstream deep processing industry has suffered widespread losses recently and has a strong resistance to high price tar, recently, coking enterprises have taken the initiative to limit production due to profits, which is generally concentrated at 3-40%, affecting the recent tar output. Boosted by the tight supply of tar, the bidding price of tar market continued to rise this week. At present, Shandong has significantly increased to 5410 yuan / ton, while Hebei has implemented 5400 yuan / ton, with an average increase of 200 yuan / ton. In the future, the business community believes that the tar supply is tight recently, and it is difficult for coking enterprises to significantly improve their work in a short time. The market is expected to continue to be tight in the future. However, as the price of tar continues to rise, the profits of downstream deep-processing enterprises are damaged, and there is a strong resistance to high price tar at present. On the whole, it is expected that the high-level consolidation trend of tar prices in the short term will be the main trend, and it will be difficult to continue to rise.

The downstream deep processing industry has been in a downturn recently, with coal tar pitch rising and falling. Affected by the rising price of raw materials, the price has been adjusted at a high level. In terms of anthracene oil, the recent operating rate is low, and the supply is insufficient, which has boosted the price of anthracene oil. The trend of industrial naphthalene is volatile this week, and there is a fear of a weak pattern of supply and demand in the future. The weakness of the downstream has limited boost to the tar market.

Price trend

According to the bulk list data of business society, the PC market continued to decline this week, and the spot prices of various brands continued to decline. As of Friday, July 1, the reference offer of PC sample enterprises of business club was about 17700 yuan / ton, up or down -6.18% compared with the average price at the beginning of the week.

Cause analysis

Industrial chain: in the upstream, bisphenol a market fell again in the week, and there was little demand in the market. Some low-end offers in East China fell to 12650 yuan / ton. The industry chain is not good, the terminal support is difficult, the demand is poor, and the short-term future market is not clear. The industry’s profit performance is poor. In addition, the raw material end continues to decline, and the external market environment is in a depressed state. The business community expects a short-term weak adjustment.

The upstream bisphenol a market fell this week, reducing the cost side support of PC. In terms of industrial load, the operating rate of domestic PC enterprises has increased recently, and the load of some production lines has increased after maintenance. This adds to the pressure on the PC supply side, which is already high in inventory. The international crude oil in the far upstream also fluctuates due to the influence of the Federal Reserve and other reasons. The downstream demand is weak, and the operating rate of terminal enterprises is limited by many factors, resulting in poor delivery. Although the floor has entered the trading mode of price for volume, it is currently in the off-season, with cold market transactions and lack of bottom support. Buyers’ mentality of buying up rather than buying down spread, businesses’ confidence was not strong, and the offer made a substantial profit.

Aftermarket forecast

Business analysts believe that the domestic PC market continued to decline this week, the upstream bisphenol a market weakened, and the cost side’s support effect on PC weakened. In terms of supply, there are abundant goods on site, high inventory and light demand. It is expected that the spot price may continue to be weak in the short term.