At the beginning of June, the domestic butadiene market price rose in a narrow range due to the positive external market and the boost of demand. With the restart of the maintenance device, the supply side resumed, the demand was suppressed by high prices, and the production enterprises sold at high prices, resulting in the decline of the domestic butadiene market.
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According to the sample data monitored by business club, the domestic butadiene market price was 11341 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month, and 10935 yuan / ton at the end of the month (as of June 28), with a decrease of 3.58% in the month and a year-on-year increase of 23.78%. In terms of the latest market price, the mainstream transaction price of butadiene in East China is 10400 yuan / ton; The mainstream transaction price of butadiene in central Shandong is 10300 yuan / ton.
At the beginning of the month, the domestic butadiene market was at a high level. Boosted by the higher transaction price of the external market and the shortage of domestic spot resources, the butadiene price rose strongly at the beginning of the week, reaching a new high in the year. With the rapid rise of butadiene prices, downstream profits are upside down, and the demand side support is gradually weakening.
In mid June, the domestic butadiene market fell significantly, mainly due to the prominent contradiction between supply and demand: some units in East China were restarted, and the supply side was significantly supplemented. But at the same time, the downstream demand was relatively weak, and the synthetic rubber market fell, dragging down the market inquiry atmosphere. Under the drag of poor transaction, the butadiene market fell rapidly.
In late June, the domestic butadiene market was low, and the overall performance was weak and volatile. Affected by the unexpected shutdown of some units in East China, the supply side news boosted the market atmosphere, but the overall demand was weak, which was difficult to provide effective support for the butadiene market. The main production enterprises in Northeast China competed for the supply of goods, which led to the continuous decline of prices. The broad decline of the market further affected the downstream inquiry mentality, and the market stopped rising and turned down.
In late June, the domestic butadiene market fluctuated upward, and the rise accelerated in the middle and late weeks of the week. The production of new domestic production capacity was delayed, and the export shipment was relatively concentrated, resulting in tight supply performance.
In terms of enterprises, the 30000 T / a butadiene unit of Liaoyang Petrochemical plant is in stable operation, and it is temporarily scheduled to be exported. The 100000 t / a butadiene oxidative dehydrogenation unit of Jiangsu sierbang Petrochemical Co., Ltd. has been in stable operation, with normal supply for export. The listing price has been reduced by 500 yuan / ton to 11000 yuan / ton. Fushun Petrochemical’s 160000 T / a butadiene extraction unit operated stably, 600 t of goods were sold abroad through competitive bidding, and the bidding base price was reduced by 500 yuan / T to 9300 yuan / T. The 120000 ton / year butadiene plant of North Huajin is in stable operation, and 156 tons of goods are sold through online bidding, with a bidding base price of 9810 yuan / ton. The 64000 T / a butadiene extraction unit of Shenhua Ningxia coal is in normal operation. At present, a small amount of goods are exported, and the price is reduced by 250 yuan / ton to 9550 yuan / ton.
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In terms of external market: as of the closing on June 27, the external market price of butadiene in Asia remained stable: FOB Korea closed at US $1495-1505 / ton; CFR China closed at USD 1475-1485 / ton. The external price of butadiene in Europe remained stable: FOB Rotterdam closed at USD 1570-1580 / ton; FD northwest Europe closed at 1395-1405 euros / ton.
region ., country., Closing price, Up and down
Asia, FOB Korea, 1495-1505 dollars / ton, 0 yuan / ton
Asia, CFR China, USD 1475-1485 / ton, USD 0 / ton
Europe, FOB Rotterdam, 1570-1580 USD / ton, USD 0 / ton
Europe, FD northwest Europe, 1395-1405 euros / ton, 0 euro / ton
According to the price monitoring of the business club, in the first half of 2022 (1.1-6.30), 136 commodities rose month on month in the list of bulk commodity prices, mainly in the chemical sector (64 in total) and the agricultural and sideline sector (16 in total), and the commodities with an increase of more than 5% were mainly in the chemical sector; The top 3 commodities with growth rate were butadiene (152.15%), lithium hydroxide (118.46%) and sulfur (89.80%). A total of 95 commodities fell month on month, mainly in the chemical industry (43 in total) and steel (15 in total), and commodities with a decline of more than 5% were mainly in the chemical industry sector; The commodities with the top three declines were electrolytic manganese (-57.47%), magnesium (-46.60%) and glycine (-45.71%). In this half year, the average increase and decrease was 6.53%.
Affected by downstream profits and poor operation, it is difficult for the demand side of butadiene market to have a positive boost. Meanwhile, with the export of some goods from Northeast China and East China, the market supply increment dragged down the market. Butadiene analysts of business agency predict that the domestic butadiene market is still likely to decline further in the short term.
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