According to statistics, the domestic market price of ammonium nitrate was temporarily stable in July. As of the end of the month, the market price of ammonium nitrate was 4650 yuan / ton, unchanged from the price of 4650 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month, with a year-on-year increase of 30.99%.

In July, the domestic ammonium nitrate market price trend was temporarily stable, and the domestic ammonium nitrate manufacturers’ devices operated stably. Recently, the on-site supply of goods was normal, the on-site delivery was general, the manufacturer’s inventory was low, the upstream coal price trend of the terminal was stable, the nitric acid price trend fell, and the downstream demand was general. The price trend of ammonium nitrate was temporarily stable due to the decline of raw materials. Recently, the shipment market of ammonium nitrate manufacturers is normal, and the downstream nitro compound fertilizer is purchased on demand. Recently, the trend of downstream nitro compound fertilizer is stable, and the domestic downstream civil explosive industry still stops production. In addition, the sales of civil explosive industry has come to an end, the domestic ammonium nitrate manufacturers start work normally, and the market price trend of ammonium nitrate is stable. Up to now, the mainstream negotiation in Shaanxi is 4800-5000 yuan / ton, the mainstream negotiation in Shandong is 4600-4700 yuan / ton, and the price in Hebei is 5200-5300 yuan / ton.

The price trend of domestic concentrated nitric acid fell in July. As of the end of the month, the average price of domestic nitric acid was 2750 yuan / ton, down 6.78% from 2950 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month. The quotation of Shaanxi Xinghua is 2550 yuan / ton; Anhui Jinhe offers 3050 yuan / ton. Recently, the operation of domestic nitric acid plants is stable, the supply of concentrated nitric acid market is normal, and the delivery situation in the field is poor. In July, the price trend of nitric acid market fell, and the price trend of raw material nitric acid fell, which has a certain negative impact on the ammonium nitrate Market, and the market price trend of ammonium nitrate is temporarily stable.

The domestic market price of liquid ammonia in the upstream fell sharply in July. As of the end of the month, the price of liquid ammonia was 3656.67 yuan / ton, 23.66% lower than the price of 4790 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month. The mainstream transaction price of liquid ammonia in Shandong is 3600-4700 yuan / ton. Mainly due to the increase of regional supply, some devices are started and restarted; As well as the high urea level in the downstream, the demand for fertilizer in the downstream is still weak, and the resistance to high prices has further suppressed some demand; In addition, the production of urea in some enterprises decreased, the production of liquid ammonia increased, and the price of liquid ammonia in the field fell sharply. Superimposed on the weakening of agricultural demand in the downstream, the downstream stocking came to an end. The decline in the price of upstream liquid ammonia has a certain negative impact on the ammonium nitrate Market, and the market price trend of ammonium nitrate is temporarily stable.

Recently, the downstream procurement is general, and the market demand for ammonium nitrate has decreased. In addition, the trend of raw material market price has fallen, which has a certain negative impact on the ammonium nitrate Market, and the sales of the civil explosive industry has weakened. The ammonium nitrate analysts of the business society believe that the market price of ammonium nitrate may decline in the later period.

Price trend

According to the price monitoring of the business community, the sulfur price trend fell broadly in July, and the market was weak and plummeted. As of July 31, the average ex factory price of sulfur market in East China was 940.00 yuan / ton, which was 73.91% lower than the average ex factory price of 3603.33 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month.

In July, the domestic sulfur market fell sharply, and various factors led to the continuous decline in the price during the month. In the downstream market, the demand for sulfur is limited in the off-season, and the enthusiasm to enter the market is general; At the same time, there is a low-cost source of goods in the market, resulting in increased resistance to refinery sales and accumulation of enterprise inventory. In order to maintain the pace of shipment, the quotation fell again and again; On the other hand, the price of crude oil at the raw material end fell, which indirectly negatively affected the sulfur market; Finally, in the port, the market trading was light, the inventory in the port was accumulated, and the sulfur price fell, weakening the support for the sulfur price of domestic refineries. The overall market performance is strong supply and weak demand, and the sulfur market is weak and declining.

Downstream market of industrial chain

The downstream sulfuric acid market fell sharply in July, with the price at 998.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month and 748.00 yuan / ton at the end of the month, with an overall decline of 25.05% in the month. During the month, the inventory of domestic mainstream sulfuric acid manufacturers was small, the downstream demand was weak, the enthusiasm for entering the market purchasing was weak, the on-site transactions were insufficient, the market atmosphere was bearish, and the price of sulfuric acid was forced to decline under the mood of buying up or not buying down.

In terms of phosphate fertilizer, the market was weak in July. The price of Monoammonium fell first and then rose. The overall market fell during the month. The raw phosphate rock was still tight and the price was high. The price of sulfur continued to fall, and the cost support was insufficient. The confidence of Monoammonium was frustrated, and the price of Monoammonium was weak and downward; The diammonium market fluctuated at a high level, the domestic demand for diammonium basically stagnated, and most manufacturers stopped quoting. At present, the export is dominated, the demand is weak, the quotation of traders is chaotic, and the short-term diammonium price is weak.

Aftermarket forecast

According to sulfur analysts of business club, the domestic sulfur market is in a game of supply and demand, the downstream market is falling, the demand continues to be depressed, and there are few positive factors in the market. Considering that the current sulfur price is low, and there may be an intention to stock up in the market, it is expected that the sulfur market will be sorted out in the future, with price range fluctuations as the main factor, and the specific attention will be paid to the market follow-up.

According to the data monitored by the business community, as of July 29, the average quotation price of domestic premium DMF enterprises was 11250.00 yuan / ton. The DMF price in July was narrow and weak, from 12500 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month to 11250 / ton at the end of the month. The overall price in July was weak, and the mainstream price range was 10500 yuan / ton.

From the first ten days of July to July 12, the domestic DMF price has been running smoothly. At present, the mainstream price range is 10500-11000 yuan / ton. The transaction atmosphere is acceptable, the negotiation atmosphere is positive, the manufacturer’s shipment is smooth, the downstream just needs to purchase, and the logistics is smooth.

Upstream methanol: on July 11, the average price of domestic methanol market was 2397 yuan / ton, down 2.80% from the previous trading day and 5.33% year-on-year. On July 11, methanol futures in Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange were weak and volatile. The main contract ma2209 closed at 2401 yuan / ton at the end of the day, down 84 yuan / ton or 5.40% from the closing of the previous trading day, leading the futures commodity market on the day. In terms of spot goods, at present, the supply side of methanol is abundant, and the demand side is relatively low, so it is difficult to have a significant opening in the short term. In the short term, the domestic methanol market continued to be depressed, mainly finishing.

From mid July to July 19, the domestic DMF price has been running smoothly. At present, the mainstream price range is 11000-12000 yuan / ton, the transaction atmosphere is acceptable, the negotiation atmosphere is positive, the manufacturer’s shipment is smooth, the downstream just needs to purchase, and the logistics is smooth. Upstream methanol: the domestic methanol market was in a downturn, and the decline slowed down. The receiving price in northern Shandong, the main end market, is down synchronously, and the inventory of raw materials in local downstream factories is high, causing serious vehicle crushing.

From late July to July 19, the domestic DMF price has been running smoothly. At present, the mainstream price range is 11000-12000 yuan / ton. The transaction atmosphere is acceptable, the negotiation atmosphere is positive, the manufacturer’s shipment is smooth, the downstream just needs to purchase, and the logistics is smooth.

Chemical commodity index: on July 28, the chemical index was 996 points, down 3 points from yesterday, down 28.86% from the highest point of 1400 points in the cycle (2021-10-23), and up 66.56% from the lowest point of 598 points on April 8, 2020. (Note: the period refers to 2011-12-01 to now).

According to the analysts of business agency DMF, it is expected that the DMF market will operate stably in August, with a narrow range of strong operation. (if you want to know more about the latest market trends of the industrial chain, please pay attention to the official account of the business club to obtain commodity information and master commodity prices)