In October, the domestic cyclohexanone market rose first and then fell. According to the monitoring data of the business community, the average price of domestic cyclohexanone market at the beginning of the month was 9920 yuan/ton, and the average price of domestic cyclohexanone market at the end of the month was 9780 yuan/ton, with a monthly drop of 1.41%, the maximum amplitude of 2.59%, and a year-on-year drop of 15.40%.

The main factor of cyclohexanone market change in October was the price change of raw material pure benzene.

At the beginning of the month, the domestic cyclohexanone market fluctuated in a narrow range, with prices rising first and then falling, and generally rising. Raw material pure benzene rose sharply, Sinopec raised 350 yuan/ton twice when it was listed, which boosted the cost. Some chemical fibers were purchased, and the cyclohexanone market followed the cost rise. In the middle of the week, the price of pure benzene fell, Sinopec’s pure benzene was listed down 200 yuan/ton, the cost side collapsed, and under the pressure of shipment, the transaction center of cyclohexanone was lowered.

In the middle of August, the domestic cyclohexanone market was volatile and declined. Sinopec’s pure benzene was listed twice, and the cost was reduced by 350 yuan/ton, lacking support. The downstream caprolactam supply is abundant, and the chemical fiber order follow-up is slow. At the same time, some self use enterprises sold cyclohexanone from abroad, and the supply of commodities increased, leading to a decline in the cyclohexanone market.

In the last ten days of this month, the domestic cyclohexanone market continued to decline, and the raw material pure benzene fell. Sinopec’s pure benzene was listed down 200 yuan/ton to 7650 yuan/ton, lacking support in cost.

Summary of domestic cyclohexanone market as of October 28:

Region, price

In East China, 9900-10100 yuan/ton is sent by spot exchange

In South China, 10400-10500 yuan/ton of spot exchange will be sent to

In Shandong, 9700-9800 yuan/ton of spot exchange is sent to

Raw material pure benzene: According to the monitoring of the business community, the domestic pure benzene market declined significantly. The price at the beginning of the month was 7925 yuan/ton, and the price at the end of the month was 7586 yuan/ton, down 4.25%.

Downstream caprolactam: The business community monitored that the domestic spot market of caprolactam rose in shock, with the price of 11450 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month and 12773 yuan/ton at the end of the month, up 11.25% in the cycle.

The raw material pure benzene is in a downturn, and the cost support is lacking. The downstream demand for chemical fiber is fair. The cyclohexanone analysts of the business community predict that the short-term cyclohexanone market is mainly weak.

According to statistics, the price trend of domestic ammonium nitrate market was temporarily stable in October. As of the end of the month, the market price of ammonium nitrate was 3930 yuan/ton, which was flat compared with the price of 3930 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month, down 16.38% year on year.

In October, the domestic ammonium nitrate market price trend was temporarily stable, the domestic ammonium nitrate manufacturers’ devices operated stably, the supply of goods on the site was normal in the near future, the goods on the site were generally shipped, the manufacturer’s inventory was low, the terminal upstream coal price trend was stable, the nitric acid price trend rose, the liquid ammonia price trend fell, the downstream demand was general, and the ammonium nitrate market price was stable. Recently, the shipping market of ammonium nitrate manufacturers is normal, and the downstream is purchased on demand. Recently, the trend of downstream nitro compound fertilizer is stable. The domestic downstream civil explosive industry is gradually entering the peak season. The domestic ammonium nitrate manufacturers are operating normally, and the market price of ammonium nitrate is temporarily stable. Up to now, the mainstream of negotiation in Shaanxi is 4800-5000 yuan/ton, that in Shandong is 3800-3900 yuan/ton, and that in Hebei is 3900-4000 yuan/ton.

In October, the price trend of domestic concentrated nitric acid rose slightly. As of the end of the month, the average price of domestic nitric acid was 2366.67 yuan/ton, up 1.67% from 2333.33 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month. Shaanxi Xinghua offers 2150 yuan/ton; Anhui Jinhe offers 2500 yuan/ton. Recently, the domestic nitric acid plant has been operating stably, the supply of concentrated nitric acid market has been normal, the goods on the site have improved, the price of nitric acid market has risen, and the price of raw nitric acid has risen, forming a certain positive support for the ammonium nitrate market, and the price of ammonium nitrate market has remained stable.

In October, the price trend of domestic liquid ammonia market in the upstream declined. As of the end of the month, the price of liquid ammonia was 4113.33 yuan/ton, 5.95% lower than the price of 4373.33 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month. Prices in many places in China have declined to varying degrees, with the main production areas such as Shandong, Hebei and Lianghu falling by 200-300 yuan/ton. Shipments in Shandong, Hebei, Lianghu, Fujian and other places have increased significantly, and with the effect of manufacturers’ successive price reductions, shipments have become more powerful. Moreover, due to the downward price of urea, many enterprises have switched to liquid ammonia production, and the short-term ammonia volume has increased significantly, so the supply pressure has increased significantly. The price decline of upstream liquid ammonia has a negative impact on the market price of ammonium nitrate, and the price trend of ammonium nitrate is stable.

Recently, the downstream procurement has increased, which has brought certain benefits to the ammonium nitrate market. The market price of raw nitric acid has risen slightly, but the price trend of liquid ammonia has fallen back. The ammonium nitrate analysts of the business community believe that the market price of ammonium nitrate may rise slightly in the later period.

According to the data of the bulk commodity list of business cooperatives, the formaldehyde market in Shandong rose first and then fell in October. The average price of formaldehyde in Shandong at the beginning of the month was 1336.67 yuan/ton, and the average price of formaldehyde in Shandong at the end of the month was 1383.33 yuan/ton, up 3.49%, and the current price fell 21.70% year on year.

formaldehyde

In October, the formaldehyde market price in Shandong Province rose first and then fell. From the figure above, it can be seen that formaldehyde has not fluctuated much in recent three months, and the increase is greater than the decrease. As of October 26, the mainstream market price in Shandong was 1350-1400 yuan/ton. In October, the domestic methanol market rose first and then fell, which greatly affected the price of formaldehyde. The downstream plate factory maintained just in need of purchase, and the formaldehyde inventory remained controllable. The formaldehyde market changed with the cost.

Upstream methanol situation: the methanol market rose first and then fell in October, with a recent upward trend. Strong coal prices support production costs. In terms of spot goods, the supply in the domestic mainland market increased, and the port market continued to de stock mainly. The atmosphere of the domestic methanol market is good. The quotation in some regions is adjusted in a narrow range, but the adjustment range is not large. The mainstream transaction is stable.

In October, the increase of methanol market was about to decrease, and the formaldehyde market basically followed the rise and fall of the cost fluctuation. Recently, the downstream plate factory maintained a strong demand for procurement, and the wait-and-see mood was strong. The buying was cautious, and the atmosphere of market negotiation was light. However, the methanol market had an upward trend, and the formaldehyde market was expected to rise mainly by a small margin.

Recently, the domestic methanol market is expected to rise, and the cost support is acceptable. Therefore, the formaldehyde analyst of the Chemical Branch of the Business Cooperative predicted that the recent formaldehyde price in Shandong would mainly increase slightly.

Spot price: This week (10.17-10.21), the spot market of domestic polyester staple fiber was fluctuating and falling. According to the price monitoring of the business community, the average price of domestic polyester staple fiber was about 7922 yuan/ton on October 21, down 1.61% from Monday and 4.73% from the same period last year.

Futures market: the main force of short fiber futures this week ended lower due to low volatility. On Friday, the main contract of short fiber PF futures closed at 7136, down 3.41% from the closing price last week. The settlement price is 7184 yuan. This week, the main domestic staple fiber upstream raw material PTA futures fell 3.16% to close at 5334, and the main ethylene glycol futures fell 0.86% to close at 4038.

The price of international crude oil futures fell slightly this week due to the impact of the release of strategic crude oil reserves in the United States and the weak expectation of future demand. The main force of American crude oil futures fell by about 2% to close near US $83.9 per barrel (as of 16:00 on the 21st Beijing time). Recently, the load of domestic PTA devices has increased, and there is an expectation that new devices will be put into production in the future. The supply is relatively loose compared with the previous period. The downstream starting load is at a low level compared with previous years. The overall performance is not strong in the peak season. Although the demand for raw materials has improved, the overall demand is still weak, and the cost of PTA is weak. This week, the overall domestic commencement of ethylene glycol increased with the restart load of some units, and the discharge of new units in Shaanxi also put pressure on the supply. The downstream demand is still tepid, and the pressure on ethylene glycol prices has weakened. This week, some early maintenance devices of staple fiber were restarted, and the work started to rise. The downstream orders were limited, and the demand for raw materials was maintained. The staple fiber price fell back. The recent commencement in the downstream has not changed much. The market price of pure polyester yarn and polyester cotton yarn is relatively stable, the overall delivery is average, the sales promotion is mainly for shipment, and the inquiry for non Xinjiang traceability and recycled orders is mainly.

In the future, the short-term support of staple fiber cost is weak, and there is a certain expectation of recovery in the late period of unit load. Although the downstream is in the traditional peak season, the order performance is lower than that of the same period in previous years, and the staple fiber price is in a weak oscillation trend in the short term. Pay attention to the price trend of raw materials and downstream orders.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring data of the business community, as of October 21, the average price of refrigerant R22 was 18666.67 yuan/ton, unchanged from the beginning of the month and 30% lower than the same period last year

According to the monitoring data of the business community, as of October 21, the average price of refrigerant R134a was 25833.33 yuan/ton, 0.64% lower than the price of 26000.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month, and 49.01% lower than the same period last year.

2、 Market analysis

Refrigerant R22 fundamentals did not fluctuate much this week, and the enterprise offer was stable as a whole. The price of raw material trichloromethane rose slightly by 5.52% in the month, and the price of hydrofluoric acid rose by 3.15% in the month. The overall cost of raw materials was slightly stronger. Affected by the weakening of refrigerant demand in the fourth quarter on a year-on-year basis, the small rise in cost had limited support for domestic R22 prices. The domestic R22 market price continued to move steadily this week.

Since late September, the domestic trichloroethylene price has risen and dropped slightly. In October, the overall price of trichloroethylene was weak and stabilized. In October, the domestic hydrofluoric acid price rebounded slightly overall, rising 3.15% in the month. In general, the upstream raw material cost is still weak overall. In addition, the demand in winter is weak, and the downstream is still too wait-and-see. The R134a price is in a dilemma of overall rise and fall. This week, the refrigerant R134a price is stable as a whole.

3、 Future market forecast

Refrigerant analysts from the business community believe that the cost of R22 is stable and strong. Affected by the low demand season, the overall market price of R22 will continue to fluctuate slightly at the current level in the short term. The R134a raw material cost is adjusted to be stable and weak overall. The continued weak cost and weak demand will further suppress the R134a market price in the future.

Commodity index: According to the monitoring of the business community, the natural rubber commodity index on October 21 was 34.73, down 0.17 points from yesterday, down 65.27% from the highest point of 100.00 (2011-09-01) in the cycle, and up 27.31% from the lowest point of 27.28 on April 2, 2020. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

Figure 2: Natural rubber mainstream price trend since October 2022

Commodity market: According to the monitoring of the business community, the main spot market of natural rubber (Baodao full milk) in East China was about 11710 yuan/ton on July 21 (Friday), down 3.46% in the week, 3.38% month on month, and 18.47% year on year,; The current price is temporarily above 11702 yuan/ton on September 7, which is the second lowest price of natural gum in nearly 10 months from 2022 to now, and the second lowest price in the year since October 21, 2021. It has no traditional consumption peak season characteristics of “nine gold and ten silver” in previous years, and it has hit the confidence of many practitioners.

Figure 3: Weekly K Histogram of Natural Rubber Market in 2022

Industry: According to the monitoring of the business community, the global economy is weak and under great downward pressure. The expectation of economic recession and public health events have multiple impacts, and the overall demand is weak. Industry and supply side: Recently, the rainfall in Southeast Asia and Hainan has decreased, and the impact on rubber tapping has weakened. Yunnan has good weather conditions and normal rubber tapping. The global main production areas of natural rubber are still in the seasonal rubber production peak period and the supply is loose in the peak season. Demand side: Since the National Day holiday, some tire enterprises have been overhauling, and the commencement of work needs to be gradually restored. The current operating rate is still at a low level, and the tire inventory is high, the supply pressure is high, and the order volume and the purchase demand for natural rubber continue to be weak. In terms of imports and inventories, the arrival of new rubber at the port has gradually increased, and the domestic inventory has maintained a cumulative state. In terms of rubber substitutes, cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber and styrene butadiene rubber have continued to decline in a weak way so far this month. At present, the price is close to that of natural rubber, which will promote the purchase demand of natural rubber to some extent. However, due to the decline in the commencement of tire factories, the downstream demand for raw rubber continues to be weak.

Recent hot spots:

1. According to Russian media on the 15th, a report released by the automotive industry research institute Standard&Poor’s Global Mobility recently showed that the European energy crisis has put the European automotive industry under great pressure on energy costs, and the energy use restrictions before winter may lead to the shutdown of auto factories.

2. According to the latest data released by the European Automobile Manufacturers Association (ACEA), the sales of passenger cars in the European Union increased by 9.6% to 787870 in September, two consecutive months of growth, and 4.4% in August. However, this growth is mainly due to the low comparison base in September 2021, when the shortage of semiconductors hindered automobile production; In the first three quarters of 2022, the European passenger car market shrank by 9.9% to 6.78 million vehicles. This is reflected in the performance of most countries, with all major markets in the region facing losses during the nine month period. Italy saw the largest decline (- 16.3%), followed by France (- 11.8%), Germany (- 7.4%) and Spain (- 7.4%).

Figure 5: Comparison Chart of Annual Spot Market Trend of Natural Rubber from 2020 to 2022

Future market forecast: worries about the future economic prospects will continue to affect the futures trend. The trend of natural rubber is weak due to the multiple distribution of public health events, poor industrial demand and excess supply of raw rubber; China’s economic tone is stable, and the domestic rubber production area will stop cutting seasonally at the end of next month, which will support the market of natural rubber to some extent. To sum up, it is expected that the probability of natural rubber will remain volatile, with short-term weakness as the main factor.

1、 Price trend

According to the bulk list data of business cooperatives, the price of mixed xylene stabilized after the festival. On September 30, the price was 8020 yuan/ton; On Friday (October 14), the price was 8400 yuan/ton, 4.73% higher than that before the festival and 25.19% higher than that of the same period last year.

2、 Analysis and review

Due to the strong rise of crude oil during the festival, related bulk commodities generally rose, and the domestic mixed xylene market was boosted by the good news. However, due to public health events and other factors, the gasoline market is not good, and the rising crude oil is limited, and downstream chemical products just need to follow up. The demand side was weak, the crude oil continued to fall after the superimposition festival, the market center of gravity moved down, and the wait-and-see increase.

In terms of external market, Asian mixed xylene in external market fell broadly this week. On Thursday (October 13), South Korea imported mixed xylene at a price of US $983/ton, a year-on-year drop of US $89/ton, or 8.3%.

In terms of crude oil, due to OPEC+’s plan to significantly reduce production from November, oil prices continued to rise during the holiday season. As of October 7, Brent prices rose by 9.96 dollars/barrel, or 11.32%; WTI rose by 13.15 dollars/barrel, or 16.54%. However, the market’s concern about economic recession still depressed the oil price, which mainly fell after the festival. As of October 14, Brent price fell by 6.29 dollars/barrel, or 6.42%, compared with last week; WTI fell by 7.03 USD/barrel, or 7.59%.

In terms of downstream, in terms of PX, domestic PX prices rose. On September 30, the price was 9000 yuan/ton, and on October 14, the price was 9300 yuan/ton, 3.33% higher than before the festival, and 27.4% higher than the same period last year.

In terms of OX, the price of OX in East China rose. On September 30, it was 9000 yuan/ton, and on October 14, it was 9600 yuan/ton, 6.67% higher than before the festival, and 45.45% higher than the same period last year.

In terms of gasoline, the gasoline market is weak, and the price has been weakening continuously. On September 30, the price was 8693 yuan/ton, and on October 14, the price was 8420 yuan/ton, down 3.14% from before the festival, and up 1.32% from the same period last year.

3、 Future market forecast

In terms of crude oil, the crude oil market will continue the long short game. Positive, OPEC+production reduction, European winter energy supply shortage. Bad news: European and American interest rate hikes are expected, and the market is worried about the economic recession depressing oil demand. Continue to pay attention to the geopolitical situation, OPEC+’s decision on crude oil production, the impact of the stock dynamics of U.S. crude oil and refined oil, and the global economic situation on crude oil prices.

The follow-up of downstream demand is poor, and the wait-and-see mood is strong. It is expected that the mixed xylene will operate weakly in the short term. Pay attention to the market trend of crude oil and gasoline, the impact of mixed xylene and downstream device dynamics, port inventory, and external market on the price of mixed xylene.

Recent price trend of isooctanol

As can be seen from the figure above, the ex factory price of isooctanol in Shandong Province fell slightly this week. This week, the average ex factory price of mainstream isooctanol manufacturers in Shandong Province dropped from 9233.33 yuan/ton at the end of last week to 9066.67 yuan/ton at the end of this week, a drop of 1.80%, 42.13% lower than the same period last year. On October 16, the isooctanol commodity index was 66.67, unchanged from yesterday, down 51.51% from the highest point of 137.50 (2021-08-08) in the cycle, and up 89.67% from the lowest point of 35.15 on February 1, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

Insufficient upstream support and weakening downstream demand

From the manufacturer’s quotation, the factory quotation of Shandong mainstream isooctanol manufacturers fell slightly this week: the octanol unit of Jianlan Chemical is under maintenance; Lihuayi offered 9000 yuan/ton of isooctanol this weekend, down 200 yuan/ton compared with last weekend; Hualu Hengsheng offered 9200 yuan/ton of isooctanol this weekend, down 100 yuan/ton compared with the beginning of the week.

From the perspective of the upstream raw material market of isooctanol, the propylene market fell slightly this week, with the price falling from 7680.60 yuan/ton at the end of last week to 7620.60 yuan/ton at the end of this week, a drop of 0.78%, 20.83% year-on-year. The upstream raw material market price fell slightly, and the cost support was insufficient. Affected by the supply and demand, the price of isooctanol was negatively affected.

From the downstream market of isooctanol, the DOP factory price fell slightly this week. The DOP price dropped from 10370.00 yuan/ton at the end of last week to 10220.00 yuan/ton at the end of this week, a drop of 1.45% and a year-on-year drop of 28.03%. Downstream DOP prices fell slightly, and downstream customers became less enthusiastic about purchasing isooctanol.

The upstream support is insufficient, the downstream demand is weakened, and isooctanol is bearish in the future

In the middle and late October, the market of Shandong isooctanol may fluctuate slightly. The upstream propylene market declined slightly, with insufficient cost support. The downstream DOP market declined slightly, and downstream demand weakened. According to the isooctanol analysts of the business community, the short-term domestic isooctanol market may fall slightly due to the influence of supply and demand, raw materials and other aspects.

Last week (October 10-16), the cost drive was strong. The price of nylon filament rose with the cost, which to some extent drove downstream weaving users to replenish moderately. However, the quantity was small, and only just needed to replenish. The demand side is still weak as a whole, and most downstream users have poor enthusiasm for production. The weaving operation rate is only around 60%, so it is difficult to increase the load in the future. At present, the inventory of the downstream weaving grey fabric is high, and there is an expectation that it will rise again. The upstream and downstream of the nylon industry chain are playing games, and the silk market is under pressure.

Market price trend

Nylon price chart

Price trend chart of nylon POY (86D/24F)

According to the price monitoring of the business community, the price of nylon filament rose slightly last week (October 10-16). As of October 16, 2022, the price of nylon filament DTY (Premium; 70D/24F) in Jiangsu Province was 18320 yuan/ton, 200 yuan/ton higher than the price at the beginning of the week, with a weekly increase of 1.10%; Nylon POY (Premium; 86D/24F) quoted 16100 yuan/ton, up 250 yuan/ton compared with the price at the beginning of the week, with a weekly increase of 1.58%; Nylon FDY (Premium: 40D/12F) price was 18675 yuan/ton, 200 yuan/ton higher than the price at the beginning of the week, with a weekly increase of 1.08%.

Upstream raw material market

Price rise and fall chart of nylon filament industry chain

During the National Day and early after the festival, the prices of crude oil and pure benzene continued to rise, and the cost side was boosted strongly. The market price of caprolactam, the raw material of nylon filament, also rose sharply, and downstream users did not have much stock before the festival. After the festival, centralized procurement followed up, driving the price of caprolactam market to rise. At the end of the week, the pure benzene and PA6 chip markets have weakened, and it is difficult for the cost and demand side to support caprolactam. It is expected that the caprolactam market will be weakened in the short term.

Supply and demand

On the whole, the current commencement of nylon yarn is stable, 70% of the overall commencement is on the high side, the inventory level is high, the supply remains adequate, and the market is dominated by many main forces to digest the inventory. The demand side is still weak as a whole. After the festival, there is a small increase in the delivery of some winter velvet fabrics, but the overall number of orders is limited. Recently, the grey fabric inventory of the weaving factory has decreased slightly, but the decline is limited. There is still expectation of another rise in the future. Now it has entered the middle of October, and the early orders have been delivered in succession. The probability of the occurrence of new single faults in the future is high. In the short term, the market is still empty.

Future market forecast

The cost of the future market is likely to decline. Downstream procurement is cautious. In the short term, the willingness to inquire is not strong, and customers just need to buy at a lower price. At present, most varieties of nylon filament have lost cash flow, and the space for enterprises to continue to make profits is limited. Analysts from the business community predict that the nylon filament market will weaken in the later period, and the price may be slightly lowered.

According to the monitoring of the business community, the domestic adipic acid market rose sharply after the festival (10.8-14). According to the monitoring of the business community, the increase was 12.16%. The market price range of adipic acid at the weekend was 10800-11300 yuan/ton. The rise was mainly due to the double advantages of supply side and cost side.

Supply side: price adjustment of large factories&low operating rate

From the perspective of market supply, after the festival, suppliers were generally very popular

Cost: Pure benzene goes up with crude oil

After the festival, pure benzene mainly rose and fell. At present, the spot price in East China is 7800-8300 yuan/ton. According to the monitoring of the business community, the post festival range of pure benzene is 2.21%. During the National Day holiday, international crude oil prices rose sharply, boosting downstream chemicals. The price of pure benzene also rose driven by crude oil. The supply of pure benzene in East China is tight, and spot prices are generally higher. At the weekend, with the release of the news of the arrival of the ship, pure benzene stopped rising and fell.

Demand side: just need continuous follow-up

The downstream demand of adipic acid has not changed much, and the demand remains rigid. According to the monitoring of the business community, the downstream PA66 rose by 1.01% after the festival, which slowed down compared with that before the festival. At present, the supply of goods in the market is relatively tight, downstream procurement continues to follow up, and the stock before the festival is exhausted. The manufacturers continue to purchase after the festival, and the transaction atmosphere is getting stronger. At the weekend, the market price of PA66 in Zhejiang was 25000 yuan/ton.

Industrial chain

The above figure shows that the adipic acid industry chain is in full swing after the festival. From the perspective of industrial chain growth, the growth of adipic acid is stronger than that of upstream and downstream. This shows that the manufacturer’s profits have been continuously improved, and the downstream profits have been squeezed.

Future outlook

The business community believes that the favorable situation on the supply side may continue, and the probability of the recent increase of the unit operating rate is small; However, on the cost side, crude oil and pure benzene fell in shock, and the adipic acid gradually stopped rising near the weekend. Some dealers gave up profits to ship, indicating that the market had peaked. In addition, it is difficult for the demand side to follow up. After comprehensive consideration, the price of adipic acid may be loose, but the downward trend will not be too large.