1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring data of the business community, the price of baking soda was weak this week. The average market price at the beginning of the week was 2587.5 yuan/ton, and the average market price at the weekend was 2537.5 yuan/ton, down 1.93% and 28.52% year on year. On November 10, the sodium bicarbonate commodity index was 168.42, unchanged from yesterday, down 28.59% from the peak of 235.84 (2021-11-10) in the cycle, and up 90.80% from the low of 88.27 on December 22, 2020. (Note: Period refers to the period from September 1, 2020 to now)

2、 Market analysis

According to the business community, the price of baking soda is temporarily stable, and the downstream market is in general demand recently. The current price of baking soda in Henan is about 2500-2700 yuan/ton. According to the monitoring data of the business community, the overall price of soda ash this week is mainly stable, and the price is large, stable and small. The current mainstream market price of light soda ash in East China is about 2650-2800 yuan/ton. The price of soda ash in North China is temporarily stable, and the current market price of light soda ash is about 2650-2750 yuan/ton. Data shows that the operating rate of soda ash this week is about 89%.

Demand: downstream medicine, textile and food demand for baking soda is average. In terms of raw materials, according to the monitoring data of the business community, the price of soda ash this week was stable and dynamic. The average market price of light soda ash was 2650 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week, and 2644 yuan/ton at the end of the week. The price fell 0.23%, down 27.31% from the same period last year. In the downstream, medicine, textile and food are mostly purchased on demand. In general, the price of sodium bicarbonate in the short term or consolidation operation is determined by the downstream market demand.

1、 Price trend

According to the bulk list data of business cooperatives, the price of mixed xylene rebounded slightly after falling this week. On November 4, the price was 8060 yuan/ton; On Friday (November 4), the price was 8040 yuan/ton, 0.25% lower than that of last week and 26.81% higher than that of the same period last year.

2、 Analysis and review

As more xylene has arrived at the port recently, the supply side has increased; The demand side continued to be weak, downstream chemical products just needed to follow up, terminal gasoline market continued to be weak, and mixed xylene continued to decline at the beginning of the week. However, the price in East China rebounded slightly, boosted by the rise of crude oil in the second half of the week.

On the external side, the price of mixed xylene in Asia fell this week. On Thursday (November 10), the price of mixed xylene imported from South Korea was 938 dollars/ton, down 14.5 dollars/ton, or 1.52%.

In terms of crude oil, international oil prices fell in the first half of the week due to the weakening of fuel demand due to epidemic measures in Asia and the unexpected growth of crude oil stocks in the United States. However, there are signs that US inflation is slowing down, supporting the rebound of oil prices. As of November 11, Brent price this week fell by 2.58 dollars/barrel, or 2.62%, compared with last week; WTI fell by 3.65 dollars/barrel, or 3.94%.

On the downstream side, in terms of PX, the domestic PX price remained stable this week. On November 4, the price was 8600 yuan/ton, and on November 11, the price was 8600 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week and 17.81% higher than the same period last year.

In terms of OX, the price of OX in East China fell this week. On November 4, it was 9300 yuan/ton, and on November 11, it was 9000 yuan/ton, down 3.23% from last week and up 25% from the same period last year.

In terms of gasoline, it is difficult to reverse the situation of “strong diesel and weak gasoline”. This week, gasoline fell and then fell back. On November 4, the price was 8179 yuan/ton, and on November 11, the price was 8171 yuan/ton, down 0.09% from last week and up 3.68% from the same period last year.

3、 Future market forecast

In terms of crude oil, macro level, future interest rate increases will slow down or remain uncertain. However, both sides of supply and demand will continue to play games. While supply is tight, demand is also facing challenges brought by economic recession. We will continue to pay attention to the geopolitical situation, the latest OPEC+production policy, the stock dynamics of U.S. crude oil and refined oil, and the impact of global economic conditions on crude oil prices.

At present, the price of crude oil is relatively high, which has certain support for mixed xylene; However, there is still pressure on the supply and demand side, and it is expected that the short-term mixed xylene will continue its weak trend. Pay attention to the market trend of crude oil and gasoline, the impact of mixed xylene and downstream device dynamics, port inventory, and external market on the price of mixed xylene.

According to the monitoring of the data of the large list of business cooperatives, the price of bromine continued to rise from late September to November. At the beginning of November, the average market price of bromine was 49800 yuan/ton, and on November 14, the average market price of bromine was 48000 yuan/ton, down 3.61% and 30% compared with the same period last year.

The bromine price was weak, the overall market transaction was average, and the bromine price continued to decline. Bromine enterprises maintained a low operating load, with an average operating rate of about 64%. Up to now, the mainstream quotation of bromine in Shandong is about 47000-49000 yuan/ton.

In terms of raw materials, the price of domestic sulfur rose. The average market price at the beginning of November was 1266.67 yuan/ton, and the average market price at the weekend was 1363.33 yuan/ton. The price rose 4.63%, down 35.18% year on year. The price of sulfur is rising, but the sulfur market is on the sidelines at present. The manufacturer’s production is stable. The downstream sulfuric acid market is under consolidation and operation. The support for sulfur is limited. The progress of winter fertilizer storage is slow. The demand for sulfur is weak. The enterprise will ship on demand. It is expected that the sulfur market will be under consolidation and operation in the future.

Downstream: the downstream flame retardant and intermediate industries are lack of support in the near future, the supply and demand game, and the shipment of bromine enterprises is not smooth. The market transaction is still dominated by just need procurement, the industry is pessimistic, and the downstream takes the opportunity to lower the price.

According to the analysts of the business society, the price of bromine is weak in the near future. The downstream flame retardant and intermediate industries of bromine are generally supported in the near future. The supply and demand of both sides play a game. The spot supply of bromine is sufficient, and there is an opportunity to depress the price in the downstream. It is comprehensively expected that the short-term bromine price will be weak, depending on the downstream market demand.

Recent price trend of hydrochloric acid

As can be seen from the figure above, the domestic hydrochloric acid price fell slightly this week, and the average market price fell from 186.67 yuan/ton at the end of last week to 179.33 yuan/ton at the end of this week, a drop of 3.93%. A year-on-year decrease of 43.61%. On November 10, the hydrochloric acid commodity index was 47.19, unchanged from yesterday, 65.78% lower than the highest point of 137.89 (2021-10-26) in the cycle, and 162.46% higher than the lowest point of 17.98 on September 5, 2012. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

The upstream support is weakened, and the downstream procurement is generally

From the manufacturer’s quotation, the domestic hydrochloric acid market price fell slightly this week.

From the perspective of the upstream and downstream industrial chain of hydrochloric acid, the upstream liquid chlorine market declined slightly, and the cost support weakened. The downstream polyaluminum chloride market price is temporarily stable, with the price of 2011.25 yuan/ton. A year-on-year decrease of 21.64%; The market price of ammonium chloride was adjusted at a low level, and the market price was 957.50 yuan/ton. On the whole, the upstream support is weakened and the downstream procurement enthusiasm is average.

Future market forecast

In the middle and late November, the market price of hydrochloric acid fell mainly in a narrow range. The upstream liquid chlorine market has declined slightly in the near future, and the cost support has weakened. The downstream polyaluminum chloride and ammonium chloride markets have consolidated at a low level, and the downstream purchase intention is general. The analysts of the business association believe that hydrochloric acid has declined slightly in recent shocks.

From October 28, 2022 to November 4, 2022, the ex factory price of hydrogenated benzene in North China dropped significantly, at 7733.33 yuan/ton last weekend, and 7150 yuan/ton this weekend, a weekly drop of 7.54%.

Main domestic market price of hydrogenated benzene this week (unit: yuan/ton)

Market, price on October 28, price on November 4, up and down

East China, 7550 ～ 7600., 7050 ～ 7150., – 500

Shandong Province, 7400 ～ 7450, 6900 ～ 6900., – 550

Crude oil: On November 3, international crude oil futures prices fell. The settlement price of the main contract of US WTI crude oil futures was 88.17 dollars/barrel, down 1.33 dollars or 2.0%; The settlement price of the main contract of Brent crude oil futures was 94.67 dollars/barrel, down 1.49 dollars or 1.5%. The US dollar rose as the Federal Reserve raised interest rates, and the market’s concern about the global economic recession depressed fuel demand. Oil prices are under pressure.

Summary of Sinopec Pure Benzene Price Adjustment (Unit: yuan/ton)

Date., Adjusted Price., Adjusted Amount

October 8., 8000.,+150

October 10., 8200.,+200

October 13., 8000., – 200

October 18., 7850., – 150

October 26., 7650., – 200

October 31., 7450., – 200

November 2., 7200., – 250

The ex factory price of Sinopec’s pure benzene will be reduced by 250 yuan/ton on November 2, 2022, and the current price is 7200 yuan/ton.

Other enterprise quotations: Chambroad Petrochemical quoted 7000 yuan/ton, HSBC Petrochemical quoted 7250 yuan/ton, Weilian Chemical quoted 6903 yuan/ton, and Xinhai Petrochemical quoted 7050 yuan/ton.

The K-bar chart of commodity prices reflects the weekly or monthly price changes in the form of a bar chart based on the concept of price trend K-line. Investors can buy, sell and invest according to the changes in the K-bar chart. Red means rising; Green means: down; The height of the K column indicates the range of rise and fall. The weekly K-bar chart of pure benzene shows that the price of pure benzene has fallen continuously since July. It has slightly warmed up in late August and early September, and fell in October and November.

The pure benzene market continued its decline this week, with negative factors dominating. Crude oil and styrene continued to fall this week, affecting the market mentality on the floor, while the price of pure benzene in the external market fell sharply this week, which had a great impact on the market. The atmosphere on the floor continued to be bearish. Sinopec lowered the ex factory price of pure benzene twice this week, with a cumulative reduction of 450 yuan/ton. In terms of supply, the arrival of East China to Hong Kong is expected to increase in the future market. The supply of pure benzene is relatively loose, which once again affects the market mentality. At present, the atmosphere in the market is cold, and the hydrogenation benzene market follows the trend of pure benzene. This week, it dropped by 500-600 yuan/ton, and the ex factory price in Hebei, the main production area, dropped to 7100-7150 yuan/ton. In the future, the business community believes that the overall negative factors of the pure benzene industry chain are dominated by the low market atmosphere. It is expected that the price will remain weak in the short term. In the future, we will focus on the trend of crude oil, styrene and downstream demand.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring data of the business community, as of November 4, the average price of refrigerant R22 was 18,433.33 yuan/ton, 1.25% lower than the price of 18,666.67 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month, and 30.00% lower than the same period last year

According to the monitoring data of the business community, as of November 4, the average price of refrigerant R134a was 25500.00 yuan/ton, 1.29% lower than the price of 25833.33 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month, and 49.67% lower than the same period last year.

2、 Market analysis

Refrigerant R22 fundamentals did not fluctuate much this week. The raw material trichloromethane continued to decline in October, the overall hydrofluoric acid bottomed out slightly in October, and the raw material cost continued to fluctuate at a low level. The lower reaches of the river had a strong wait-and-see attitude as a whole. With the difficulty of refrigerant enterprises in shipping, the cost was suppressed, and some enterprises in November lowered the factory price slightly, driving the domestic R22 price down slightly.

In October, the price of upstream raw material hydrofluoric acid rebounded slightly from the bottom, the price of trichloroethylene fell by nearly 10%, the cost of raw materials continued to operate at a low level, and the downstream had a strong wait-and-see attitude. The price of refrigerant R134a decreased slightly in early November.

In terms of raw materials, the overall trend of domestic hydrofluoric acid price rebounded in October, and the rebound of hydrofluoric acid price will play a certain role in supporting domestic refrigerant prices in the future. Affected by the slack season of refrigerant demand in the fourth quarter, the overall supporting role is limited.

3、 Future market forecast

Refrigerant analysts from the business community believe that the price of domestic refrigerant R22 and R134a still has some room to fall under the pressure of cost and demand in the short term.

The price of plasticizer DBP rose first and then fell this week

According to the data monitoring of the business community, as of November 7, the DBP price was 9833.33 yuan/ton, up 1.37% from 9700 yuan/ton on October 30; It was down 2.80% from the price of 10116.67 yuan/ton on November 4. The price of DBP raw materials rose sharply and fell sharply. The demand was relatively stable. This week, the price of DBP rose first and then fell.

The price of DBP raw materials rose and fell sharply

According to the price monitoring of the business community, as of November 7, the price of phthalic anhydride was 9437.50 yuan/ton, down 3.21% from the price of 9750 yuan/ton on October 30. It was 9734.50 yuan/ton on November 1 at the beginning of the month. This week, the price of phthalic anhydride in the neighborhood became stable after falling, while the price of naphthalene phthalic anhydride rebounded after falling. The price of phthalic anhydride stopped falling and recovered, the cost of DBP became stable, and the downward pressure on DBP weakened.

According to the price monitoring of the business community, the price of n-butanol rose sharply this week. As of November 7, the price of n-butanol was 7666.67 yuan/ton, up 9.52% from 7000 yuan/ton on October 30; It was down 2.54% from the price of 7866.67 yuan/ton on November 4. The logistics and transportation in some areas of Shandong Province are limited, and the delivery to some n-butanol manufacturers is limited. In addition, the previous shutdown and maintenance of the factory are now restarted, and the n-butanol supply is still supported; The trading atmosphere of n-butanol in the market is good, the pressure of n-butanol sales is not great, and the mentality of the industry is strong. With the gradual recovery of transportation, the price of n-butanol rose and fell sharply, and the support of DBP cost rise remained.

Future market expectation

According to DBP data analysts of the business community, the price of phthalic anhydride, the raw material of DBP, has stabilized after falling, the price of n-butanol has risen sharply and dropped sharply, and the cost support of DBP still exists. In terms of supply, the transportation of DBP is limited, and the supply is tight in the near future. In the future, with the recovery of transportation, the price of n-butanol will fall, the supply of DBP will return to normal, the rising support of DBP will weaken, and the downward pressure will increase. It is expected that the DBP price will fall slightly in the future.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring data of the business community, the average factory price of domestic chlorinated paraffins 52 was 6233 yuan/ton on October 31, and 6233 yuan/ton on November 4. The price of chlorinated paraffins 52 was stable this week.

2、 Market analysis

The price of chlorinated paraffins was generally stable this week, and there was no major fluctuation in the market. The price of liquid chlorine in raw materials was first depressed and then increased. The overall price of liquid wax in raw materials was stable, and the cost side was generally supported. Downstream procurement is mainly based on demand, and the market trading atmosphere is poor. As of November 4, the ex factory quotation of chlorinated paraffins 52 in Anhui was about 6600 yuan/ton, that in Northeast China was about 6000-6200 yuan/ton, and that in Shandong Province was about 6100 yuan/ton.

In terms of raw material liquid wax, the market price of liquid wax this week was stable, and the liquid wax fluctuated with the crude oil market. In terms of raw material liquid chlorine, liquid chlorine rebounded slightly after a continuous decline this week, and downstream stock increased, with active trading on the market.

3、 Future market forecast

According to the chlorinated paraffin analysts of the business community, the liquid chlorine market of chlorinated paraffin feedstock has rebounded slightly and the cost support is acceptable. The downstream of chlorinated paraffin is purchased on demand, and the demand side is still sluggish. It is expected that chlorinated paraffin will operate stably in the short term.

In October, the domestic polysilicon market continued its steady state in September, with a monthly decline of only 0.22%. As of October 31, the domestic supply price basically maintained the level at the beginning of the month, while the import supply declined slightly, with a range of 1000-3000 yuan/ton. According to the monitoring of the business community, the single-crystal compact mainstream range with the model of primary solar energy at the end of the month reached RMB 298-30900/ton.

From the perspective of silicon material commencement, the operating rate of domestic silicon material manufacturers has significantly increased this month. Compared with the three units that resumed operation in September, the two units are still in the maintenance period, and most units have resumed operation in October. The supply has significantly increased compared with the previous month. However, based on the current low inventory situation, the silicon material price is firm, the bargaining space is limited, and some old customers’ long orders have been settled. In general, due to the continuous follow-up of downstream demand, silicon material supply is still in short supply.

From the perspective of downstream silicon wafers, silicon wafers continued to be stable this month. On October 24, Dachang Longji Co., Ltd. released the implementation price of silicon wafers. The price remained the same as that in September, with a rise or fall of 0. The commencement of silicon wafer is generally stable, and the demand continues to advance.

In terms of terminals, the price of battery chips rose slightly this month, the G12 size battery chips rose slightly, and the mainstream transaction price rose slightly to about 1.32 yuan/W. The other models are stable. The mainstream transaction price of single crystal M6 battery chip is about 1.29 yuan/W, and the mainstream transaction price of M10 battery chip is about 1.34 yuan/W. As the upstream silicon material stopped rising and stabilized, the price of silicon wafer was stable for three consecutive months, and the pressure on downstream battery chip and component enterprises was slightly reduced. The operating rate of components has slightly increased compared with that at the beginning of the month, the price has increased tentatively, the construction of domestic large-scale ground power station projects has been accelerated, and the demand side has steadily increased. As overseas orders are still strong, the role of export is obvious.

Future market forecast: polysilicon analysts from the business community believe that the current silicon material supply has slightly increased compared with that in September, and the price may still remain high in the short term driven by demand. However, in the medium term, many devices are planned to be put into production in the year, and silicon material is expected to be released in large quantities. Therefore, the possibility of price falling due to the pressure of loose supply will not be ruled out in the later period.

In October, the price center of viscose staple fiber market continued to fall, the terminal demand continued to be weak, the industry’s inventory pressure was high, and manufacturers had strong willingness to support prices. At the end of the month, after the introduction of the new price policy of domestic viscose manufacturers, other manufacturers also followed, and the overall market price center declined. It is difficult to improve the delivery of rayon yarn, which leads to a general enthusiasm for raw material procurement, and the delivery focuses on just needs.

The turnover of rayon yarn in October continued to be cold. At the end of the month, the price of rayon staple fiber, an upstream raw material, fell, and the price of rayon yarn also showed a downward trend. Recently, the market still has the performance of selling goods at reduced prices. Under the condition of weak demand, it is difficult to stimulate the downstream to receive goods. The market trading atmosphere is light and difficult to change. Enterprises negotiate with each other to deliver goods. Most deals are based on rigid demand.

Price trend of viscose staple fiber

Price trend of viscose staple fiber

According to the price monitoring of the business community, the price of viscose staple fiber stabilized first and then fell in October. As of October 31, 2022, the ex factory quotation of 1.2D * 38mm viscose staple fiber in China was 13240 yuan/ton, 600 yuan/ton lower than the price at the beginning of the month, with a monthly drop of 4.34%.

The price trend of rayon yarn

Renmian Yarn Price Trend Chart

The price of human cotton yarn fell along with it. As of October 31, 2022 (30S, ring spinning, first class), the average ex factory price was 17,866 yuan/ton, showing a situation of price without market. Compared with the price at the beginning of the month, it fell nearly 300 yuan/ton, a monthly drop of 1.86%.

Inventory and demand

The start-up rate of viscose staple fiber industry remains low, and the overall load is about 55% at present. The overall low start-up may continue under the loss making operation of the manufacturer. In terms of demand, the start-up rate of downstream cotton yarn enterprises was basically stable. Renmian still sold goods in some areas, but the actual transaction situation has not improved. The downstream still maintains the level of just in demand procurement, and the inventory of finished products of Renmian yarn enterprises has risen by a narrow margin. The downstream orders of rayon yarn were not as expected, the terminal demand showed no signs of improvement, and the willingness to take delivery of goods was not high in the short term, and the demand side continued to operate weakly.

Future market forecast

With the price adjustment at the end of this month, whether the downstream orders have improved requires further inspection by the market. It is a fact that the expectations of Jin Jiuyin Shi have fallen short. It is difficult to improve the demand of textile terminals for a while. Analysts from the business community predict that the viscose staple fiber and rayon yarn industry chain will continue to operate in a weak way, and the price may fluctuate slightly.