Domestic price trend:

It can be seen from the trend chart of paraxylene that the price of paraxylene rose sharply in January. By the end of the month, the domestic ex-factory price of paraxylene was 8500 yuan/ton, up 14.09% from the price of 7450 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month, up 16.44% year-on-year.

In January, the supply of paraxylene was normal, the domestic PX operating rate was more than 60%, the operation of Sinochem Hongrun Petrochemical 600000 tons unit was stable, the operation of Yangzi Petrochemical unit was stable, the operation of Pengzhou Petrochemical unit was stable, the operation of Yangzi Petrochemical PX unit was normal, the operation of Jinling Petrochemical unit was stable, the Qingdao Lidong unit was operating at full load, the operation of Qilu Petrochemical unit was stable, the operation of Urumqi Petrochemical unit was about 50%, and the domestic paraxylene supply was normal, The operation of overseas units was normal, and the domestic price of paraxylene rose. In January, the international crude oil price rose, and the PX outer price rose. As of the 27th, the closing price was 1050-1052 yuan/ton FOB Korea and 1075-1077 dollars/ton CFR China. The operating rate of PX devices in Asia has maintained recently. Overall, the operating rate of PX devices in Asia is around 60%. The supply of PX goods in Asia is normal, and the domestic PX market is rising.

In January, the international crude oil price rose by 1.63%. As of the end of the month, the settlement price of the main contract of WTI crude oil futures in the United States was 79.68 dollars/barrel, and the settlement price of the main contract of Brent crude oil futures was 86.40 dollars/barrel. On the one hand, the number of oil and natural gas rigs of American energy companies decreased by 8 in July, the largest monthly decline since July 2020, and also the first two consecutive months since July 2020. US crude oil supply has declined, supporting international oil prices. On the other hand, the economic recovery in the Asian region, China’s crude oil import volume increased significantly, and the positive demand recovery supported the rise of international oil prices. However, the inflation level of western developed economies is high, and it is difficult to tighten monetary policy or withdraw in the short term, which will harm the global economy and undermine the international crude oil price. In general, the price trend of crude oil market rose, and the price of paraxylene rose sharply due to the impact of cost.

The domestic PTA spot market rose in January, with the average price of 5756.82 yuan/ton in the East China market by the end of the month, up 2.50% from the beginning of the month. Before and after the Spring Festival, the number of PTA devices restarted increased, the supply of PTA increased, and the confidence of downstream textile enterprises was improved. After the holiday, they began to purchase raw materials, and the market entered a cyclical replenishment stage. The quotations of mainstream polyester factories in Jiangsu and Zhejiang continued to rise, and the overall situation in the downstream market improved. Overall, the downstream textile industry has improved, and the domestic market price of paraxylene has risen.

Chen Ling, an analyst at PX Business Agency, believes that the current supply side and demand side of the crude oil market will continue to play against each other, and the downstream demand will improve. At present, the textile industry is gradually entering the spring peak season, and PTA prices are rising slightly. In general, it is expected that the market price of paraxylene will rise in the future.

1、 Price trend

It can be seen from the above figure that the domestic market of imported potassium chloride this week is temporarily stable, with the price of 3850.00 yuan/ton. The arrival price of domestic salt lake potassium chloride this week is 3500-3600 yuan/ton. About 2.5 million tons are stored in the port. The commodity index of potassium chloride (import) on January 15 was 101.32, which was the same as yesterday, down 30.00% from the highest point of 144.74 (2022-06-21) in the cycle, and up 4.77% from the lowest point of 96.71 on September 16, 2021. (Note: the period refers to the period from September 1, 2021 to now)

2、 Market analysis

This week, the quotation of domestic potassium chloride mainstream manufacturers is temporarily stable: the arrival price of 60% potassium chloride in Qinghai Salt Lake is 3500-3600 yuan/ton. Xiangyang Youdeshi offered 3800 yuan/ton of potassium chloride at the end of this week, which was temporarily stable compared with last weekend. Zibo Dehe offered 4000 yuan/ton for potassium chloride distribution at the end of this week, which was temporarily stable compared with that at the end of last week. At the end of this week, Anhui Badou offered 3750 yuan/ton of potassium chloride, which was temporarily stable compared with last weekend. The port’s 62% white potassium self-raised price is about 3700-3800 yuan/ton. The self-raised price of 60% Dahong granules at the port is about 3800-4000 yuan/ton. 62% of Russian white potassium in border trade is about 3500 yuan/ton.

From the downstream market of potassium chloride, the ex-factory price of potassium carbonate was low this week, with the price of 9100.00 yuan/ton, up 11.43% year-on-year. The ex-factory price of potassium nitrate dropped slightly this week, from 5925.00 yuan/ton at the end of last week to 5912.50 yuan/ton at the end of this week, down 0.21%, up 0.78% year-on-year. On the whole, the downstream market of potassium chloride declined slightly, and the demand of downstream customers for potassium chloride weakened.

3、 Aftermarket forecast

In the middle and late January, the overall trend of potassium chloride market may fall in a narrow range, mainly in consolidation. The prices of potassium chloride in salt lakes and Zangger were low. The downstream market of potassium chloride is low, and the downstream demand is weakened, and the purchase is mainly in demand. International potash fertilizer prices continued to fall. Analysts of KCl from the Business Agency believe that the import price of domestic KCl may fall slightly in the short term.

This week (1.9-1.13), the domestic dimethyl ether market rose as a whole, with the market in Henan rising first and then stabilizing. According to the data monitoring of the Business News Agency, the average market price of dimethyl ether in Henan was 4600 yuan/ton on January 9 and 4625 yuan/ton on January 13, up 0.54% in the week, up 13.54% from the same period last year.

As of January 13, the domestic market prices of dimethyl ether in various regions are as follows:

Region/ Mainstream quotation

Jiangxi Province/ 4620 yuan/ton

Hebei Province/ 3900-4810 yuan/ton

Henan Province/ 4310-4550 yuan/ton

This week, the dimethyl ether market in Henan Province rose slightly. At the beginning of the week, the downstream centralized procurement, the atmosphere of transaction in the market became stronger, and the low inventory of dimethyl ether enterprises actively pushed up. Later, with the Spring Festival approaching, the downstream replenishment peak has passed and the price has stabilized. In terms of cost, the price of methanol has fallen, but the support for dimethyl ether is still there. Demand: downstream demand is affected by traditional festivals, and is changing from replenishment to rigid demand, with demand decreasing.

Overall, the on-site inventory is controllable, and the manufacturer’s willingness to stand up is obvious. It is expected that the dimethyl ether market will run smoothly in the short term.

From December 30 to January 6, 2022, the ex-factory price of hydrobenzene in North China fell slightly, from 6566.67 yuan/ton at the end of last week to 7066.67 yuan/ton at the end of this week, up 7.61%.

Oil: In the early morning of January 4, the minutes of the recent meeting released by the Federal Reserve showed that the Federal Reserve was still committed to fighting inflation and intended to return the inflation rate to the target range of 2%, which indicated that the interest rate might remain high for a period of time until there was clear evidence that the consumer price index was falling. And according to the data of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange Group (CME Group), the Federal Reserve is expected to approve a 25 basis point interest rate increase at the end of the meeting on February 1. The continued tightening of the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy has greatly increased the risk that the United States and major developed economies around the world will fall into recession, which will then depress fuel demand and put pressure on oil prices. International crude oil futures rebounded on January 5. The settlement price of the main contract of US WTI crude oil futures was 73.67 US dollars/barrel, up 0.83 US dollars or 1.2%. The settlement price of the main contract of Brent crude oil futures was 78.69 US dollars/barrel, up 0.85 US dollars or 1.1%.

The ex-factory price of Sinopec pure benzene increased by 150 yuan/ton on January 4, 2023, and the current price is 6650 yuan/ton.

The commodity price K-bar chart uses the concept of price trend K-line to reflect the weekly or monthly price changes in the form of bar chart. Investors can buy and sell investments according to the changes in the K-bar chart. Red indicates: rising; Green means: down; The height of the K column indicates the range of rise and fall. The weekly K-column chart of pure benzene shows that after entering July, the price of pure benzene continued to decline, slightly warmed at the end of August and the beginning of September, and the price mainly declined from October to December.

In terms of the industrial chain, the pure benzene market rose first and then fell this week. After the festival, the crude oil and styrene market strengthened, supporting the market mentality, and adding to the market’s demand for stock before the festival, the pure benzene market rose slightly. Subsequently, Sinopec raised the ex-factory price of pure benzene to 6650 yuan/ton. The crude oil price fell sharply near the end of the week, dragging down the market mentality, and the price of pure benzene fell again. The price of hydrogenated benzene was boosted by the market at the beginning of the week, driving the ex-factory price of enterprises in North China to 7000-7100 yuan/ton, boosting the market mentality.

The hydrogenation benzene market was affected by the rise of pure benzene at the beginning of the week. The bidding price of this week was mostly up, and the market mostly followed the trend of pure benzene. The price rose at the beginning of the week, and fell at the end of the week. The market performance in terms of operating rate was relatively good recently. Some enterprises started their plants, and the operating rate increased in a narrow range. In the future, the business agency believes that the current fundamental support is weak, the support of crude oil and pure benzene to the industrial chain is unclear, and the downstream demand performance is fair. In a comprehensive view, the pure benzene industry chain is mixed with good and bad, and there is still a certain demand for pre-holiday stock in the downstream near the holiday, which will bring some support to the market. In the short term, the pure benzene industry chain is operating steadily, moderately and strongly. In the future, the focus will be on the trend of crude oil and styrene and the actual demand in the downstream.

The price trend of domestic phthalic anhydride market declined slightly. As of the 6th day, the price of phthalic anhydride was 8050 yuan/ton, down 0.16% from the price of 8062.5 yuan/ton on the 1st day, up 12.20% year on year.

Supply side: stable operation of the device and sufficient supply of goods

In the near future, the domestic phthalic anhydride plant has operated steadily, the domestic phthalic anhydride plant has operated stably, the Anhui Tongling Linfa phthalic anhydride has started to ship normally, the Xinyang Group’s 100000 ton phthalic anhydride plant has operated stably, and the Shandong Hongxin phthalic anhydride has operated normally. Now, the domestic phthalic anhydride operating rate has maintained more than 60%, the supply of goods is sufficient, the phthalic anhydride is generally shipped, and the market of phthalic anhydride is depressed.

Cost side: price trend of orthobenzene market is temporarily stable

The price trend of domestic ortho benzene is temporarily stable. As of the 6th day, the price of ortho benzene was 7450 yuan/ton. This week, the price remained low and stable. The supply of ortho benzene was normal, and some overhaul devices were restarted. However, the port inventory was low. The low price of ortho benzene brought some negative impact on the phthalic anhydride market, and the phthalic anhydride market price declined slightly.

Demand side: mainly purchase on demand due to the fluctuation of DOP market

The price trend of downstream DOP market fluctuated, and the overall price rose slightly, with an increase of 1.03%. At present, the domestic DOP price is 9850 yuan/ton. Domestic DOP enterprises have started to operate steadily, and the demand for phthalic anhydride is mainly based on demand. The mainstream price of DOP is 9800-9900 yuan/ton. The decline of phthalic anhydride price is limited due to the influence of DOP price.

In the future, the price of ortho-xylene remains low in the short term, but the rising power of the downstream plasticizer industry is insufficient, and the supply of phthalic anhydride is sufficient. It is expected that the market price of ortho-xylene phthalic anhydride will remain low and volatile in the later period.

Recent price trend of hydrochloric acid

It can be seen from the above figure that the domestic hydrochloric acid price is temporarily stable this week, with the average market price of 174.00 yuan/ton. Compared with the same period last year, it fell 46.30% year-on-year. The hydrochloric acid commodity index on January 8 was 45.79, which was the same as yesterday, down 66.79% from the highest point of 137.89 (2021-10-26) in the cycle, and up 154.67% from the lowest point of 17.98 on September 5, 2012. (Note: the period refers to September 1, 2011 to now)

The upstream support is weakened, and the downstream procurement is better

From the manufacturer’s quotation, the domestic hydrochloric acid market price is temporarily stable this week.

From the perspective of the upstream and downstream industrial chain of hydrochloric acid, the market of liquid chlorine in the upstream is low and the cost support is insufficient. The market price of downstream polyaluminum chloride is high, and the price is 2033.75 yuan/ton. Compared with the same period last year, the year-on-year decline was 18.36%; The market price of ammonium chloride rose slightly, from 1145.00 yuan/ton at the end of last week to 1157.50 yuan/ton at the end of this week, up 1.09%. On the whole, upstream support is insufficient and downstream procurement enthusiasm is good.

Aftermarket forecast

In the middle and late January, the market price of hydrochloric acid may rise in a narrow range. The recent low level of the upstream liquid chlorine market has consolidated, and the cost support is general. The market prices of the downstream polyaluminum chloride and ammonium chloride have risen slightly, and the downstream purchasing willingness has increased. Analysts from the Business News Agency believe that hydrochloric acid is mainly rising after a small fluctuation recently.

According to the price monitoring data of the business community, as of January 6, 2023, the price reference of domestic n-propanol was 8316 yuan/ton. Compared with January 1, 2023 (the reference price of n-propanol was 8416 yuan/ton), the price decreased by 100 yuan/ton, or 1.19%.

It can be seen from the data monitoring chart of the business community that since January (1.1-1.06), the domestic n-propanol market has been in a volatile and downward movement as a whole. During the festival, the downstream demand was general, the trading atmosphere of n-propanol was light, and the overall market fell slightly. After the festival, the price of n-propanol in Shandong’s big factories was adjusted by a narrow margin, driving the market of n-propanol in Shandong to move up and down by a range of 100-200 yuan/ton. The overall n-propanol market in Nanjing was stable. As of January 6, 2022, the market price of n-propanol in Shandong Province in China is around 7500-8500 yuan/ton, and the difference between high and low prices in the market is large. The barreled price is around 9300-9500 yuan/ton. Distributors in different regions have reservations about the price. The price is difficult to monitor, which may lead to differences in the specific negotiation. Each region also has differences, and the actual negotiation is the main thing.

Prediction of the future market trend of n-propanol

At present, domestic logistics has been shut down in succession, and downstream users who need to replenish and stock up are also basically operating stably. The n-propanol data engineer of the business community believes that in the short term, the domestic n-propanol market has limited changes by a large margin, and the market mainly operates in multi range shocks. The specific trend needs to pay more attention to the information changes on the supply and demand side.

Price trend

According to the bulk list data of business cooperatives, the domestic PC market declined in December, and the spot prices of various brands were adjusted downward. As of December 31, the reference offer of PC sample enterprises of business cooperatives was about 17350 yuan/ton, up or down by 3.16% over the beginning of the month.

Cause analysis

In terms of raw materials: it can be seen from the figure above that bisphenol A continued to decline in the first half of the month, and the price has gradually approached the cost line. The continuous downturn of phenol is difficult to support bisphenol A. The downstream demand side continued to decline, the negotiation atmosphere was empty, and spot prices fell. In the second half of the month, the price position of bisphenol A stabilized at a low level, and it is expected that in the short term, the market will be dominated by narrow range consolidation and operation under the support of cost.

Supply: In December, the load of domestic PC enterprises increased, and the overall operating rate was close to 55%%. The industry saw an increase in maintenance at the end of the year, while the resumption of work also increased. The monthly average operating rate in this month increased by more than 8% compared with the previous month, with the output of more than 160000 tons, and the pressure on the supply side increased. The flow of goods in the market is general, and enterprises and merchants are cautious.

Demand: The starting position of PC terminal enterprises declined by a narrow margin this month, and it was just necessary to maintain production when getting goods. The operators have a heavy wait-and-see attitude, and the goods are not well prepared before the festival. The actual orders are mainly scattered small orders.

Future market forecast

In December, the PC market was weak, and the decline of upstream bisphenol A was hard to change. At the end of the month, the PC cost was poorly supported by consolidation at a low level. The load of domestic polymerization plants is increased in a narrow range, and the pressure at the supply end increases without decreasing. On the whole, there was a contradiction between supply and demand in the market. In the second half of the month, the supply of some brands was tight, and the market turnover was average. It is expected that PC purchase and sales will be difficult to improve in the near future, and the market may continue to be weak.

Ethylene glycol price stopped falling and stabilized in December

According to the data of the business society, the average price of domestic oil to glycol was 4050 yuan/ton on December 30, up 1.89% from the market average price of 3975 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month (12.1).

On December 30, the spot price of ethylene glycol in the East China market was basically stable, and the external implementation price range of spot prices of mainstream manufacturers in East China was 3900-4110 yuan/ton; The spot price of ethylene glycol in South China market was basically stable, and the spot price range of mainstream manufacturers in South China was 4050 yuan/ton; The spot price of ethylene glycol in North China market was basically stable, and the spot external executive price of mainstream manufacturers in North China remained 4050 yuan/ton; The price of industrial ethylene glycol of some manufacturers in central China is relatively low, at 3850 yuan/ton.

The domestic supply of ethylene glycol was relatively loose in December:

As of December 29, the overall starting load of domestic ethylene glycol was 62.87% (up 3.73% from the previous period), The start-up load of coal to ethylene glycol is 49.00% (An increase of 7.37% over the previous period. According to the unit data, a new unit was put into operation in December, and the domestic supply pressure of ethylene glycol gradually increased. The 300000 ton unit of Tongliao Jinmei has recently been put into operation and restarted, and the unit was shut down in early December; the 300000 ton unit of Shanxi Meijin was shut down in the early stage for some reason, and has been restarted in the middle and late December, and is currently operating at half load; the 300000 ton unit of Shanxi Woneng has been restarted recently, and the load is gradually increasing, and the unit was shut down in late October ； The 800000t/a EO/EG new unit of Hainan Refining&Chemical is planned to be put into production at the end of December; A new set of 1 million ton/year MEG unit in Lianyungang was started on December 3, with the current load of about 80%. In terms of shutdown, on December 7, the 300000 ton unit of Yangzi Petrochemical stopped due to upstream unit failure, and the restart time is to be determined.

Overseas, the shutdown of the 700000 ton ethylene glycol unit of Lotte in the United States is expected to restart next week, so the shutdown loss of ethylene glycol caused by the cold wave in North America is small.

In December, the inventory of the main ports in East China rose and then fell back

In December, the port inventory rebounded. The MEG port inventory in the main port area of East China reached a monthly high of 980000 tons. On the 29th, the MEG port inventory in the main port area of East China was 881000 tons, still higher than that in November. At the end of the month, due to the weather, the arrival of ethylene glycol at the port decreased, and the port inventory was still in storage.

Poor terminal demand

Public health factors are superimposed on the approaching holiday, and the terminal weaving factory has reduced production. As of December 29, the average number of days of terminal weaving orders was 11.33 days, 2.00 days less than last week. The operating load of polyester is not high, and the demand for ethylene glycol may be relatively low. At present, the operating load of polyester is reduced to a low level. Recently, the short-term terminal factory is seriously short of work, and the starting load of the weaving industry has dropped significantly again.

Future market forecast

As a whole, ethylene glycol is still in the stage of strong supply and weak demand. At present, the price is low, and the cost impact factors are expanding. It is expected that the price of ethylene glycol may rebound in the short term, but it will return to a weak and volatile trend in the medium and long term.