Overview of glycol market

In February, the price of ethylene glycol fell first and then rose, which is relatively stable at present. According to the data of Business News Agency, on February 27, the average price of domestic oil to ethylene glycol was 4308.33 yuan/ton, up 0.98% on a daily basis, down 2.27% from the average market price of 4408.33 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month.

On February 27, the spot price of ethylene glycol in the East China market was basically stable, and the spot price range of mainstream manufacturers in East China was 4200-4350 yuan/ton; The spot price of ethylene glycol in the South China market is 4300 yuan/ton, and the spot price range of mainstream manufacturers in central China is 4030 yuan/ton; The spot price of ethylene glycol in the North China market is basically stable, and the spot price of mainstream manufacturers in North China is 4300-4350 yuan/ton.

Overview of fundamentals

Device dynamics:

Expected supply reduction:

On the whole, there were many device overhauls in March and April, and the supply was expected to decline on a month-on-month basis. Last week, the overall operating load of MEG fell to 57.64%, down 1.03% month-on-month, which is at the low level in the same period in history. The operating load of coal production increased by 0.46% to 47.65%, which is at the low level in history.

On the demand side, the starting load of downstream polyester increased. At present, the polyester operating rate has risen to around 81%, and the demand is expected to be good.

According to the inventory data, as of February 27, the total inventory of MEG ports in the main port area of East China was 1.0332 million tons, 9112 million tons of ethylene glycol in the main port of East China and 122000 tons of accumulated inventory compared with the 19th of last month. At present, the inventory of ethylene glycol ports is still relatively high, only next to 1.072 million tons in 2019, and at a relatively high level in the same period of the past six years.

Aftermarket forecast

Short-term inventory suppression is still the main factor leading to the limited upward space of ethylene glycol. Today, the inventory in East China’s main port fell by 25900 tons compared with the previous trading day. There is a strong expectation that supply will weaken and demand will improve in the near future, and prices will improve in the short term.

According to the monitoring data of Business News Agency, the price of steam coal rose this week. The energy index stood at 1095 points on February 23, unchanged from yesterday, down 29.85% from the highest point of 1561 points in the cycle (2021-10-21), and up 114.29% from the lowest point of 511 points on March 1, 2016. (Note: the period refers to 2011-12-01 to now)

In terms of origin, the coal mine resumed production and the market trading atmosphere continued to rise. The number of coal hauling vehicles in the mine increased, and the transaction in the mine was good. In addition, an open-pit coal mine in the Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region collapsed in a large area, and the coal mine production in the later stage may become more strict, and the coal mine output may be affected.

In terms of downstream ports, the port price rose and the market activity increased. The trading and investment atmosphere in the market is fair, and the demand in the downstream increases. In addition, due to the commencement of construction after the year, the demand for steam coal has also increased compared with that before, and the price of steam coal in the port has risen. However, the downstream acceptance is low, and the deviation between the actual transaction and the quotation is large.

According to the monitoring of the Ministry of Commerce, the national coal price fell last week (February 13-19), including 1548 yuan, 924 yuan and 1454 yuan per ton of No.2 anthracite lump coal, steam coal and coking coal, down 2.1%, 1.2% and 0.2% respectively.

Analysts from the Business News Agency believe that the production of steam coal in the production area is resumed and the trading atmosphere is better than before. In terms of downstream ports, the purchasing enthusiasm of power plants has improved, and the price of steam coal has rebounded. The number of coal hauling vehicles on the mine increased, and the market sentiment was high. It is comprehensively estimated that there is still room for the price of steam coal to rise in the later stage. However, the country pays high attention to China’s energy, so the rising space may be limited, depending on the downstream market demand.

The price of o-xylene rose this week

According to the price trend chart of ortho-xylene of the business community, the price of ortho-xylene was 8000 yuan/ton as of February 23, up 2.56% from 7800 yuan/ton on February 16. The market of ortho-xylene industry chain recovered, and the domestic ortho-xylene market rose.

The market of raw material mixed xylene rose this week

It can be seen from the price trend chart of mixed xylene of the business agency that as of February 23, the price of mixed xylene was 7370 yuan/ton, up by 0.68% from the price of mixed xylene of 7320 yuan/ton on February 16; It was down 1.07% from 7450 yuan/ton on February 1. This week, the crude oil price fell back from its high point, the price of petroleum naphtha rose in shock, the price of mixed xylene rose, and the cost of ortho-xylene rose. The momentum of ortho-xylene rise was large, and the downward pressure remained.

The downstream phthalic anhydride market rose this week

It can be seen from the price trend chart of phthalic anhydride of the business community that the price of ortho-functional phthalic anhydride was 8312.50 yuan/ton as of February 23, up 0.30% from the price of 8287.50 yuan/ton on February 16. Downstream demand rose slowly, o-phthalic anhydride market warmed up, and o-xylene had a strong upward momentum.

Future prospects

According to the analyst of adjacent xylene data of the business agency, the market of the upstream and downstream of the adjacent xylene industry chain warmed up this week, the price of mixed xylene rose, and the price of phthalic anhydride rose. In the future, the cost of ortho-xylene rose and the demand warmed up. It is expected that the price of ortho-xylene will be strong and temporarily stable in the future.

According to the monitoring of the bulk list data of the business agency, the price of bromine is weak. At the beginning of the month, the average market price was 40000 yuan/ton. On February 21, the average market price was 33400 yuan/ton, down 16.5%. The bromine commodity index on February 20 was 124.91, down 5.62 points from yesterday, down 49.05% from the highest point of 245.18 points in the cycle (2021-10-27), and up 112.00% from the lowest point of 58.92 points on October 29, 2014. (Note: the period refers to September 1, 2011 to now)

The price of bromine continued to decline. The price of bromine in Shandong is under pressure, and now the mainstream market price in Shandong is 32000-35000 yuan/ton. Downstream flame retardants and intermediates industries have been started recently, but the low load has been maintained, the demand is obviously bleak, and the shipment of bromine enterprises is not smooth. With the increase of bromine production, the operators are pessimistic and generally not optimistic about the future.

In terms of raw materials: the domestic sulfur price has consolidated and operated. The average market price at the beginning of February was 1170 yuan/ton, and the average market price on February 21 was 1153.33 yuan/ton, down 1.42%. At present, the domestic refinery plants operate stably, the market supply of goods is stable, the sulfur price is greatly affected by the downstream demand, the terminal phosphate fertilizer market performance is poor, the sulfur market is lack of positive, the refinery mainly temporarily stable shipments, the operators are wait-and-see attitude, and the short-term sulfur market is expected to operate smoothly, and the follow-up situation of the downstream is specifically concerned.

Analysts from the Business News Agency believe that the price of bromine has continued to decline in the near future. The demand for downstream flame retardants and intermediates of bromine has been slow to follow up. Most of them are purchased on demand. The price is weak and the upstream sulfur support is insufficient. The downstream demand is generally expected to be weak in the short-term bromine price to consolidate the operating situation, depending on the downstream market demand.

Zinc price fluctuated and rose this week

According to the data monitoring of the Business News Agency, as of February 20, the zinc price was 23238 yuan/ton, up 1.04% from the fluctuating zinc price of 22998 yuan/ton on February 13. Zinc market inventory increased and demand warmed up, and zinc prices rose in shock this week.

International zinc market

The tightening monetary policy of the Federal Reserve remains unchanged, the strength of the US dollar remains unchanged, the expectation of weak demand remains unchanged, and commodity prices fluctuate and fall; London’s zinc inventory increased significantly this week, and overseas zinc supply is expected to increase; With the end of the winter heating peak in Europe, the operating rate of zinc smelting in Europe is expected to rise, and the supply of international zinc market is expected to increase; The zinc market has sufficient supply and insufficient demand, and the downward pressure is great.

Domestic zinc market

The domestic credit data released showed that China’s credit data in January exceeded expectations, and M2 growth rate exceeded expectations. The credit data met the market’s expectations for domestic economic recovery; The operating rate of zinc plating and die-casting zinc alloy has risen steadily, and the demand of zinc industry has warmed up; The processing cost remains high, the zinc ore smelting supply is released, the zinc ore supply is sufficient, the domestic zinc market output increases, the zinc market supply increases, and the social zinc inventory accumulates; Economic stimulus policies have been introduced in many places in China, and downstream demand has warmed up. The supply and demand of the zinc market increased, and the downward pressure of the zinc market still had an increasing upward momentum.

Aftermarket forecast

According to the data analyst of the Business News Agency, the supply and demand of zinc market have increased, and the rising power of zinc price has increased, and the downward pressure still exists. In the future, the supply and demand of zinc market will increase in the short term, but the growth rate of supply will be faster than the growth rate of demand. The pressure of zinc price decline will be greater and the rising power will remain. It is expected that the zinc price volatility will stabilize.

This week (February 13-17, 2023), the spot price of caprolactam, the upstream raw material, continued to decline in a weak way, the demand side performance remained weak, the confidence in the market weakened, and the price of nylon filament fell. The starting load of nylon filament increased and the market supply increased significantly. The market trading and investment are still relatively cold on the whole, waiting for rigid procurement, foreign trade orders have not been started, and the expectation of orders this spring and summer is weak.

Market price trend

Nylon price chart

Price trend of nylon POY (86D/24F)

According to the price monitoring of the Business Agency, the price of nylon filament fell this week (February 13-February 17, 2023). As of February 17, 2023, the price of nylon filament DTY (premium products; 70D/24F) in Jiangsu was 18100 yuan/ton, down 140 yuan/ton from last week, with a weekly decline of 0.77%; Nylon POY (premium product; 86D/24F) quoted 15850 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton from last week; The price of nylon FDY (premium product: 40D/12F) was 18875 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan/ton from last week.

Upstream raw material market

Price rise and fall chart of nylon filament industry chain

Cost side: caprolactam supply is relatively loose, confidence in the market is weakening, and the price continues to loosen. The market price of raw caprolactam continues to decline this week. According to the price monitoring of the business agency, the average market price of domestic liquid caprolactam was 12266 yuan/ton as of February 17, down 236 yuan/ton from last week. It is expected that caprolactam market will still be dominated by small consolidation in the later stage.

In terms of demand: the operating rate of downstream weaving manufacturers has increased during the week, and the market transaction is gradually recovering, but the overall market has not changed significantly. Only a small number of new orders have been issued, and most orders are still in the inquiry stage. It is expected that the release time of new orders in spring and summer will be near the end of the month or the beginning of the next month.

Aftermarket forecast

Downstream new orders have not been issued in a centralized manner, and the load of nylon filament factory has increased, so the supply and demand side is difficult to be favorable. In addition, the performance of the cost side is poor. Analysts of the Business Agency expect that the price of nylon filament will show a narrow decline trend next week.

Domestic cobalt price stopped falling on February 16

According to the data monitoring of the Business Agency, as of February 16, the domestic cobalt price was 288200 yuan/ton, up 0.03% from 288100 yuan/ton on February 15 of the previous trading day. On February 16, the domestic cobalt price stopped falling and stabilized.

Analysis points

On February 15, the price of cobalt in LME market fell sharply, the price of MB cobalt stabilized, and the international cobalt price fell still; In January, the production and sales of new energy vehicles fell on a month-on-month basis. With the recovery of the domestic economy, the production and sales of new energy vehicles are expected to warm up in the future, and the demand of cobalt market is expected to warm up.

Aftermarket expectation

High expectations and low reality, the cobalt price supply is sufficient and the demand is general, and the cobalt price is expected to fall slightly in the future.

Recent urea price trend

It can be seen from the above figure that the domestic urea market price fell slightly this week, and the urea price fell from 2793.00 yuan/ton at the end of last week to 2788.00 yuan/ton at the end of this week, a decrease of 0.18%, up 3.64% year-on-year. The urea commodity index on February 12 was 129.67, which was the same as yesterday, down 14.88% from the cycle’s highest point of 152.33 (2022-05-15), and up 133.22% from the lowest point of 55.60 on August 17, 2016. (Note: the period refers to September 1, 2011 to now)

Cost support is weakened, downstream demand is general, and urea supply is tight

From the manufacturer’s quotation, the mainstream price of domestic urea fell this week. Zhangzhou San’an urea quoted 2900 yuan/ton this weekend, which is temporarily stable compared with last weekend; Shandong Ruixing Urea quoted 2780 yuan/ton at the end of this week, which was temporarily stable compared with that at the end of last week; Hualu Hengsheng urea quoted 2740 yuan/ton at the end of this week, down 15 yuan/ton from the end of last week.

From the data of the upstream and downstream industry chain, the urea upstream market rose and fell this week: the price of liquefied natural gas fell slightly, from 5926.00 yuan/ton at the end of last week to 5724.00 yuan/ton at the end of this week, down 3.41%, up 9.80% year on year; The price of anthracite decreased slightly, and the price of Yangquan anthracite (washing medium lump) was 1780 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan/ton from last week; The price of liquid ammonia rose slightly, from 4140 yuan/ton at the end of last week to 4206.67 yuan/ton at the end of this week, up 1.61%, down 6.59% from the same period last year. The price of upstream raw materials fell slightly, and the support for urea price was insufficient. The price of melamine downstream of urea rose slightly this week, from 8233.33 yuan/ton at the end of last week to 8266.67 yuan/ton at the end of this week, up 0.40%.

From the perspective of demand: agricultural demand increased slightly and industrial demand was normal. The operating rate of compound fertilizer plants has gradually increased, and the enthusiasm for urea procurement has increased. The plate and melamine enterprises are generally started, and mainly need to purchase. From the perspective of supply, some gas-fired enterprises have begun to resume production, with a daily urea output of about 150000 to 160000 tons.

Mainly a small decline in the future

The domestic urea market may fall slightly in the middle and late February. According to the urea analyst of the Business Agency, the prices of anthracite and liquefied gas in the upstream of urea fell slightly, and the cost of urea was not supported enough. Downstream agricultural demand increased slightly, and industrial demand was normal. Some gas head enterprises shut down for maintenance, and the daily output of urea is about 150000 to 160000 tons. In the future, urea may fall in a narrow range.

According to the monitoring of bulk data of the Business News Agency, the mainstream price of styrene in Shandong Province fell first and then rose recently. The average price of styrene in Shandong at the beginning of the week was 8550.00 yuan/ton, and the average price of styrene in Shandong at the weekend was 8483.33 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.78%. The price fell 6.05% from the same period last year.

styrene

Recently, the market price of styrene fell first and then rose. It can be seen from the above figure that the recent price of styrene has mainly fluctuated slightly, and the price decline this week was greater than the increase. The international crude oil price is volatile, the pure benzene market is weak and consolidated, and the cost support is poor. The styrene manufacturers are actively shipping, and the market is lower. The styrene inventory in the later period decreases rapidly, and the styrene market stops falling and rises.

In terms of raw materials, the trend of pure benzene fluctuated this week. At the beginning of the week, the price of pure benzene was 6803-7000 yuan/ton (the average price was 6901 yuan/ton), and at the end of the week, the price of pure benzene was 6903-7000 yuan/ton (the average price was 6925 yuan/ton), down 0.11% from last week, up 1.46% from the same period last year. The fundamentals of pure benzene continue to be weak, and the downstream is more wait-and-see, and the purchase intention is general; Crude oil continued to fall in the week, and the cost of pure benzene market formed a negative pressure; Downstream styrene slightly strengthened, boosting the pure benzene market.

Downstream, the three major downstream of styrene rose and fell in different ways. At the beginning of the week, the average price of PS common material was 9633 yuan/ton, and at the end of the week, the average price of PS common material was 9600 yuan/ton, down 0.35%. At present, the supply of goods in PS market is slowly digested, and the pressure of merchants to ship goods is not reduced, and the price reduction is the main. The mainstream price of GPPS in the East China market is 8800-10700 yuan/ton, and the mainstream price of HIPS is 9700-11000 yuan/ton.

Recently, the EPS price fluctuated and fell. The overall turnover weakened on a month-on-month basis. The average price of EPS ordinary materials is 10250 yuan/ton, and the buying enthusiasm is not high. The EPS market quotation is weak, and the manufacturers maintain a stable price for shipment, and the terminal demand performance is low.

Recently, the domestic ABS market fell first and then rose. According to the data monitoring of the Business News Agency, the average price on February 10 was 12000 yuan/ton, down 0.83% from the average price at the beginning of the month. At present, the downstream factories, including the main terminal appliance industry, are in order to prepare goods, and the recent demand is fair, and the goods are normally transported in the field. Buyers and merchants followed the market and performed steadily.

The recent volatility of crude oil prices has limited impact on styrene, and the downstream recovery is accelerating. The styrene inventory is well digested. It is expected that the short-term volatility of the styrene market will rise.

1、 Price trend

According to the data monitoring of the Business News Agency, the domestic propylene (Shandong) market fell this week. The average price of the Shandong market at the beginning of the week was 7623 yuan/ton, and the average price at the end of the week was 7558 yuan/ton, with a weekly decrease of 0.85% and a year-on-year decrease of 9.05%.

As of February 10, the mainstream prices of propylene in domestic regions are as follows:

Region/ February 10th

Shandong region/ 7500-7600 yuan/ton

Northeast China/ 7200-7300 yuan/ton

East China/ 7550-7650 yuan/ton

2、 Analysis and comment

According to the monitoring of the data from the Business News Agency, the propylene market in Shandong Province weakened this week. At the beginning of the week, due to the obvious rise of crude oil, the news boosted the market mentality, and the price of propylene increased slightly in a stable manner, but the downstream delivery capacity was general. The cost side has been boosted and strengthened, but the downstream demand has been constrained, the upstream goods are moving slowly, the inventory is increasing, and the enterprise’s price has been slightly adjusted. As of this Friday, the mainstream quotation of Shandong propylene market is 7500-7600 yuan/ton.

Upstream: The crude oil price has rebounded significantly this week after many falls. As of the close of February 9, WTI fell 0.41 to 78.06 US dollars/barrel in March 2023, down 0.5%; In April 2023, Brent fell 0.59 to US $84.5/barrel, down 0.7%.

Downstream: The market of downstream derivatives was mixed this week, and the main downstream polypropylene had a poor trend recently, dragging down the rise of propylene.

3、 Aftermarket forecast

The propylene analyst of the Chemical Branch of the Business Society believes that under the condition of high cost and low demand, the profit of the propylene industry is further tightened, and the resistance to price rise is relatively large. It is expected that the propylene market will operate in a narrow range in the near future.