This week (from January 27 to February 3), the market price of 1 # electrolytic manganese was temporarily stable. The spot market price in East China was 17300 yuan/ton at the end of last week and 17050 yuan/ton at the end of this week, down 1.45%.

Manganese ore: after the festival, the mood of manganese ore continued to ferment, and the price of North-South quotation rose tentatively. The price of semi-carbonic acid in Tianjin Port was about 37 yuan/ton, Gabon was about 47 yuan/ton, Australia was about 49.5 yuan/ton, Qinzhou Port was about 40-40.5 yuan/ton, Australia was 48.5-49 yuan/ton, high-quality Australian seed was 45.5-46 yuan/ton, Gabon was 45-46 yuan/ton. There was little deal and the demand was wait-and-see until the price of the new round of March shipment of South32 in the outer market was fixed at $6/ton, and the market sentiment gradually stabilized.

The commodity price K-bar chart uses the concept of price trend K-line to reflect the weekly or monthly price changes in the form of bar chart. Investors can buy and sell investments according to the changes in the K-bar chart. Red indicates: rising; Green means: down; The height of the K column indicates the range of rise and fall. From the above weekly and monthly electrolytic manganese K-bar chart, it can be seen that since March 2022, the electrolytic manganese has continued to decline, the price has continued to stabilize after a slight rise at the end of August, the price has recovered slightly since the end of September, the price has remained stable for a long time since October, the price has fluctuated slightly in November, the price has decreased slightly after December, and the price has stabilized temporarily and then declined.

The electrolytic manganese market was slightly reduced this week, with the mainstream market price of 15300-15500 yuan/ton, down 100-200 yuan/ton from last week. In the first week after the year, the market atmosphere did not completely recover, and the market trading was slightly deserted. Some enterprises and traders were still on holiday, with less market quotations and a strong wait-and-see atmosphere. The situation of steel recruitment was also suspended, and the market lacked clear guidance. In the aftermarket, most manufacturers and relevant industry personnel will resume work around the next week, and there will be a meeting in the industry. The market is waiting for the signal guidance. It is expected that the stable, medium and weak operation will prevail in the short term.

This week, the spot market of silicon and manganese was relatively strong, and the spot price remained high, and the transaction was cold. According to the price monitoring of the Business Agency, the market price of silicon manganese in Ningxia (specification: FeMN68Si18) was around 7350-7450 yuan/ton on February 3.

Recent urea price trend

It can be seen from the above figure that the domestic urea market price rose slightly this week, and the urea price rose from 2760.00 yuan/ton at the end of last week to 2793.00 yuan/ton at the end of this week, up 1.20%, up 5.64% year-on-year. The urea commodity index on February 5 was 129.91, which was the same as yesterday, down 14.72% from the cycle’s highest point of 152.33 (2022-05-15), and up 133.65% from the lowest point of 55.60 on August 17, 2016. (Note: the period refers to September 1, 2011 to now)

Cost support is good, downstream demand increases, and urea supply is tight

From the manufacturer’s quotation, the mainstream price of domestic urea rose this week. Zhangzhou San’an urea quoted 2900 yuan/ton this weekend, which is temporarily stable compared with last weekend; Shandong Ruixing Urea quoted 2780 yuan/ton at the end of this week, up 30 yuan/ton from last weekend; Hualu Hengsheng urea quoted 2765 yuan/ton this weekend, up 65 yuan/ton from last weekend.

From the data of the upstream and downstream industry chain, the urea upstream market rose and fell this week: the price of liquefied natural gas rose slightly, from 5662.00 yuan/ton at the end of last week to 5926.00 yuan/ton at the end of this week, up 4.66%, up 53.26% from the same period last year; The price of anthracite is high, and the price of Yangquan anthracite (washing medium lump) is 1880 yuan/ton; The price of liquid ammonia dropped slightly, from 4240 yuan/ton at the end of last week to 4140.00 yuan/ton at the end of this week, down 2.36%, down 6.83% year on year. Upstream raw material prices rose and fell, and urea prices were generally supported. This week, the price of melamine in the downstream of urea was low, and the price was 8233.33 yuan/ton.

From the perspective of demand: agricultural demand increased slightly and industrial demand was normal. The operating rate of compound fertilizer plants has gradually increased, and the enthusiasm for urea procurement has increased. The plate and melamine enterprises are generally started, and mainly need to purchase. From the perspective of supply, some gas-fired enterprises have begun to resume production, with a daily urea output of about 150000 to 160000 tons.

Mainly rising slightly in the future

The domestic urea market may rise slightly in the middle and late February. According to the urea analysts of the Business Agency, the prices of anthracite and liquefied gas in the upstream of urea rose slightly, and the cost of urea was well supported. Downstream agricultural demand increased slightly, and industrial demand was normal. Some gas head enterprises shut down for maintenance, and the daily output of urea is about 150000 to 160000 tons. In the future, urea rose mainly in a narrow range.

Futures market: this week (1.30-2.3), the main force of short fiber futures closed down in shock. The main contract of short-fiber PF futures closed at 7320 on Friday, down 4.89% from last week’s closing price. The settlement price is 7312 yuan. This week, the main domestic staple fiber upstream raw material PTA futures fell 3.62% to 5638, and the main ethylene glycol futures fell 6.18% to 4222.

Spot price: the spot price of domestic polyester staple fiber was stable this week (1.30-2.3). According to the price monitoring of the Business Agency, on February 3, the average price of domestic polyester staple fiber was about 7652 yuan/ton, almost the same as Monday’s price, up 1.78% from the same period last year.

Russian crude oil exports remained at a high level in January due to the sharp increase in imports of crude oil from Asian countries to Russia. The EIA reported on Wednesday that the US crude oil supply increased by 4.1 million barrels last week, and the Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point increase in interest rates as expected. International oil prices fell under pressure this week. The main force of American oil futures fell 7.9% to close at USD 73.39 per barrel for the whole week. The fall of crude oil price has weakened the support for PTA cost. Recently, some PTA devices have been restarted, the terminal resumption is slow, the starting load is low, the PTA inventory continues to accumulate, and the futures price is lower. After the festival, some devices of staple fiber were restarted, and the downstream cotton mills and weaving mills resumed their operations slowly. The operations were still at a low level and only sporadic purchases were needed. The staple fiber enterprises accumulated stocks, and the staple fiber futures fell along with the cost. However, staple fiber enterprises are optimistic about the recovery of future demand, and the spot price is stable. This week, the trading atmosphere of the yarn market has gradually recovered. With the recovery of logistics and downstream acceptance capacity, the delivery of the yarn factory is gradually normal. The trading atmosphere of pure polyester yarn and polyester cotton yarn market has gradually recovered, and the prices of various grades of yarn have increased to different degrees compared with that of the year before.

In the future, the cost support of staple fiber raw materials is weak, the supply of devices is gradually restarted and increased after the festival, and the recovery of demand in the downstream market is uncertain, and the staple fiber may continue to accumulate. It is expected that the short-term staple fiber price will follow the weak oscillation in the upstream. Pay attention to the price trend of raw materials, plant dynamics and downstream resumption.

Price trend

According to the bulk list data of the business agency, the domestic PC market in January was stable and slightly changed, and the spot prices of various brands were stable. As of February 1, the reference offer of the sample PC enterprises of the Business Club was about 17450 yuan/ton, up and down by+0.58% from the beginning of January.

Cause analysis

In terms of raw materials: it can be seen from the above figure that the market of bisphenol A was low in the first half of January, and the market negotiation atmosphere was quiet. The price position in the second half of the month is close to the cost price. After the holiday, pure benzene and phenol ketone rose, while bisphenol A rose with raw materials.

On the supply side: the utilization rate of PC capacity in January was roughly 60% to 65%, and the pressure on the supply side was relieved compared with the previous period. It is expected that new devices will be put into operation after the holiday. At present, all market participants have not yet resumed work, and the flow of goods in the market is sluggish.

Demand: In January, PC downstream just needed to maintain production. The wait-and-see attitude of the operators is heavy. After the festival, the increase in the sources of goods sold by traders is not obvious, and the majority of intra-field price fixing sales operations. In addition, the upstream price has risen in the short term, driving the PC spot price to rise.

Aftermarket forecast

In January, the PC market was stable, and the upstream bisphenol A fell and warmed, which generally supported the PC cost. The load of domestic polymerization plants was adjusted in a narrow range, and the pressure at the supply end was relieved due to the early destocking operation. On the whole, the upstream profits are limited, and it is expected that the PC market will continue to consolidate and operate in the near future.