1、 Price trend

According to the bulk list data of the business agency, the price of toluene was relatively stable this week. The benchmark price of toluene was 7370.00 yuan/ton on March 6 and 7370.00 yuan/ton on March 12, the same as last week.

In terms of crude oil, the overall trend of crude oil this week was fluctuating downward. The US crude oil inventory unexpectedly decreased, and the market worried about raising interest rates increased, which brought pressure on oil demand, and the international oil price fell; In order to control inflation, the United States has frequently taken a series of measures recently, including releasing strategic reserves, reiterating the oil price manipulation bill against OPEC, and encouraging traders to transport Russia’s limited price crude oil. In terms of demand, China’s economy is in the stage of rapid rebound, which is good for the oil market.

Against the background of market worries about the global economic recession, there are still many uncertain factors in crude oil supply. The international crude oil supply as a whole has maintained a stable and tight state, among which, China’s crude oil consumption has always maintained a positive growth trend.

On March 12, the benchmark price of WTI crude oil was 75.72 USD/barrel, up 0.05% from the beginning of this month (75.68 USD/barrel); The benchmark price of Brent crude oil was US $81.59/barrel, down 0.55% from the beginning of the month (US $82.04/barrel)..

Downstream: In terms of TDI, this week’s TDI showed a stepwise downward trend. The TDI offer continued to decline. The supply and demand game in the market, and the short-term TDI market was weak. On March 6, the TDI price was 19033.33 yuan/ton, and on March 12, the price was 17933.33 yuan/ton, a drop of 5.78%.

In terms of downstream px, the px market was stable this week. The price of PX was 8500 yuan/ton on March 6 and 8500 yuan/ton on March 12, the same as last week.

In terms of gasoline, the price of gasoline fell slightly this week, from 8530.6 yuan/ton on March 6 to 8528.2 yuan/ton on March 12, down 2.4 yuan/ton or 0.03% from last week.

3、 Aftermarket forecast

In general, the supply and demand level of the current crude oil market has provided support for the oil price, and has provided the energy for the oil price to move up the center of gravity. Next week, the international oil price will still be boosted by the expectation of China’s demand, and the overall trend may be volatile and upward. The Federal Reserve’s interest rate increase is expected to restrain the rise of the oil price to a certain extent. In the domestic downstream, the overall demand of some refineries in TDI is still weak. Crude oil is expected to rise, which is good for the toluene market. However, it is difficult to improve the downstream demand. It is expected that toluene will rise weakly next week. Pay attention to the impact of crude oil and gasoline trends, toluene unit dynamics and downstream demand on prices.

From March 3 to March 10, 2022, the ex-factory price of hydrobenzene in North China increased by 4.3% from 6983.33 yuan/ton at the end of last week to 7283.33 yuan/ton at the end of this week.

In terms of crude oil, this week’s crude oil market was shrouded in a negative atmosphere. The market was worried that the Federal Reserve might raise interest rates aggressively, which would add to the sharp increase in the United States refined oil storage. Concerns about the future economic and demand prospects remained. International crude oil futures rose on March 10. The settlement price of the main contract of US WTI crude oil futures was 76.68 US dollars/barrel, up 0.96 US dollars or 1.3%. The settlement price of the main contract of Brent crude oil futures was 82.78 US dollars/barrel, up 1.19 US dollars or 1.5%.

The ex-factory price of Sinopec pure benzene increased by 100 yuan/ton on March 8, 2023, and the current price is 7200 yuan/ton.

Other enterprises: Jingbo Petrochemical quoted 7400 yuan/ton, HSBC Petrochemical quoted 7300 yuan/ton, Weilian Chemical quoted 7203 yuan/ton, Xinhai Petrochemical quoted 7350 yuan/ton, and Hongrun Petrochemical quoted 7300 yuan/ton.

The commodity price K-bar chart uses the concept of price trend K-line to reflect the weekly or monthly price changes in the form of bar chart. Investors can buy and sell investments according to the changes in the K-bar chart. Red indicates: rising; Green means: down; The height of the K column indicates the range of rise and fall. The weekly K-column chart of pure benzene shows that after entering July, the price of pure benzene has continued to decline, slightly warmed at the end of August and the beginning of September, the price of pure benzene has mainly declined from October to December, warmed in January, and increased slightly for five consecutive weeks after February.

In terms of industrial chain: the market price of pure benzene continued to maintain a slight upward trend this week. The crude oil trend of this week rose in the first half of the week and declined in the second half of the week. However, the downstream styrene market strengthened, boosting the mentality of the pure benzene market. The pure benzene market rose slightly this week. However, the downstream side has been more wait-and-see recently, and the overall purchase intention is low. The trend of hydrogenation benzene market basically follows that of pure benzene, with a slight increase this week as the main trend, which also boosts the downstream crude benzene market.

In terms of the hydrogenation benzene market, the ex-factory price rose overall this week, and the main production area increased by about 300 yuan/ton. The market price rose in a narrow range following the overall performance of the pure benzene market fluctuation, and rose by about 100-175 yuan/ton in the week. On the supply side, the hydrogenation benzene enterprises started this week fairly well, and some enterprises restarted and had a strong attitude of price appreciation. In terms of demand, there is little change. Downstream purchases are on demand. However, this week’s rise in the volume of styrene led to a stronger price in the industrial chain. In general, the current industrial chain performance is relatively strong, and the weakening of crude oil prices affects the market mentality. It is expected to maintain a narrow volatility trend in the short term.

Price trend

According to the bulk list data of the business agency, the trend of the vitamin market this week continues to be weak, with weak demand, the prices of most products continue to fall, and the trading of some varieties is relatively active.

According to the price monitoring of the Business Agency, the vitamin C market fell slightly this week. The average price of food-grade vitamin C at the beginning of the week was 27 yuan/kg, and the average price at the end of the week was 26.67 yuan/kg, down 1.22%. The overall volume of vitamin C market is light, and most small orders are traded. The downstream market just needs to enter the market, and the demand is weak. The overall market is mostly on the market, and there is no obvious positive support for the time being, and the operation is weak.

The price of vitamin A continued to fall this week. The average price of feed-grade vitamin A at the beginning of the week was 93.5 yuan/kg, and the average price at the end of the week was 93 yuan/kg, a decrease of 1.22% during the week. At present, the mainstream market quotation is 88-92 yuan/kg, while the European market quotation falls to 23.5-26 euros/kg. The vitamin A market has maintained a weak downward trend. The domestic vitamin A supply is surplus, and the demand is poor. The vitamin A market is weak and difficult to change.

The price of vitamin E stabilized this week, and the current mainstream price of VE market is between 75-80 yuan per ton. The European market offers 8.2-8.5 euros/kg. The willingness of the factory to stand up was obvious, which pushed up slightly. The market trading was slightly active, and the market attention increased.

Aftermarket forecast

The vitamin analyst of the Chemical Branch of the Business Society believes that some vitamin markets are still weak, and the market wait-and-see atmosphere is strong. In the future, we will pay close attention to the production, sales and market trends of enterprises.

As can be seen from the above figure, the ex-factory price of isooctanol in Shandong Province fell sharply this month. The price of isooctanol dropped from 10666.67 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 9166.67 yuan/ton at the end of the month, a decrease of 14.06%. The year-on-year decline was 26.08%.

The isooctanol commodity index on February 27 was 66.67, down 3.43 points from yesterday, down 51.51% from the peak of 137.50 points in the cycle (2021-08-08), and up 89.67% from the lowest point of 35.15 points on February 1, 2016. (Note: the period refers to September 1, 2011 to now)

From the manufacturer’s quotation, the prices of Shandong isooctanol mainstream manufacturers fell sharply this month, and the manufacturer’s inventory was average.

Insufficient upstream support and weaker downstream demand

From the perspective of the upstream and downstream industrial chain, the upstream propylene market fell slightly this month. The price of propylene fell from 7530.75 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 7470.60 yuan/ton at the end of the month, with a decrease of 0.80%. Compared with the same period last year, it fell 10.80% year-on-year. The cost support was insufficient, which had a negative impact on the price of isooctanol. Downstream DOP prices fell sharply. The price of DOP dropped by 7.19% from 10710.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 9940.00 yuan/ton at the end of the month, down 16.56% from the same period last year. The downstream market fell sharply, and the enthusiasm of downstream customers to purchase isooctanol weakened.

The market fell slightly in the aftermarket

In the first ten days of March, the domestic isooctanol market may fluctuate and fall slightly. The upstream propylene price fell slightly, the cost support was insufficient, the downstream DOP market fell sharply, the downstream manufacturers’ enthusiasm for isooctanol procurement weakened, and the product trend declined under the supply and demand contradiction. The isooctanol analyst of the business agency believes that the domestic isooctanol market may fall slightly in the short term under the influence of supply and demand and raw materials.

Recent price trend of sulfuric acid

As can be seen from the above figure, the domestic sulfuric acid market price rose slightly this week, with the price of sulfuric acid rising from 248.33 yuan/ton at the end of last week to 256.67 yuan/ton at the end of this week, up 3.36%. Compared with the same period last year, it fell 67.44% year-on-year. On March 5, the sulfuric acid commodity index was 39.95, which was the same as yesterday. It was 78.76% lower than the highest point of 188.07 (2022-04-13) in the cycle, and 26.74% higher than the lowest point of 31.52 on June 6, 2019. (Note: the period refers to September 1, 2011 to now)

Upstream market fluctuates and rises, and downstream purchasing enthusiasm is good

From the manufacturer’s quotation, the price of domestic mainstream sulfuric acid manufacturers rose this week, and the manufacturer’s inventory was average.

From the perspective of the upstream and downstream industrial chains, the upstream sulfur market rose slightly, with the sulfur price rising from 1120.00 yuan/ton at the end of last week to 1143.33 yuan/ton at the end of this week, up 2.08%. Compared with the same period last year, the year-on-year decline was 52.36%, and the upstream market volatility rose, and the cost support increased. The downstream hydrofluoric acid market declined slightly, with the market price falling from 9828.57 yuan/ton at the end of last week to 9714.29 yuan/ton at the end of this week, down 1.16%. Compared with the same period last year, it fell 10.71% year-on-year. The market price of titanium dioxide in the downstream rose sharply, from 16183.33 yuan/ton at the end of last week to 16950.00 yuan/ton at the end of this week, up 4.74%. Compared with the same period last year, it fell 18.51% year-on-year. Downstream prices have risen and fallen each other, and downstream procurement enthusiasm is good.

Rising after a small shock

In the first ten days of March, the domestic sulfuric acid market may rise slightly. The upstream sulfur market has been fluctuating and rising recently, and the cost support has increased. Downstream ammonium sulfate and hydrofluoric acid market prices are low, and titanium dioxide market prices have risen sharply. Downstream customers have a good enthusiasm for purchasing sulfuric acid, and the product trend is upward under the contradiction between supply and demand. The sulphuric acid analyst of the Business Society believes that the short-term domestic sulphuric acid market is mainly affected by supply and demand, raw materials and other factors, and the sulphuric acid market price may rise slightly.

According to the monitoring of the business agency, the asphalt market has recovered and fluctuated. From February 27 to March 3, the price of asphalt in Shandong rose from 3888 yuan/ton to 3896 yuan/ton, up 0.22%, down 1.09% month-on-month and up 7.60% year on year. Recently, supported by the relatively strong crude oil, the asphalt market quotation has risen. The overall operation of the refinery is relatively stable, and the modified processing has warmed up, driving up the atmosphere of the asphalt market.

In terms of cost and crude oil: although it is worried that the increase of interest rates in Europe may affect economic growth, the demand of Indian refineries has reached a record high, and the economic data of China is improving, and the international oil price continues to rise. NYMEX crude oil futures 04 contract 78.16 rose 0.47 US dollars/barrel or 0.60%; ICE oil distribution futures 05 contract 84.75 rose 0.44 US dollars/barrel or 0.52%. The cost side is good for the domestic oil industry chain.

Comparison chart of crude oil and asphalt price trend of the business community:

On the supply side, Guangzhou Petrochemical, Wenzhou PetroChina and Alpha will resume production of asphalt. It is expected that Kaiyi will resume production next week, and the supply will continue to increase. This week, the operating rate of major asphalt manufacturers remained at about 30%, and the supply side was temporarily short.

On the demand side, the temperature is gradually rising, and some terminal projects have been started in succession, but the rainfall range in the south has increased, and the demand performance is tepid, mainly based on the demand for goods preparation and warehousing.

According to the future forecast, the temperature in various regions will gradually warm up, but the rainfall weather in the south will increase. It is expected that the demand will not be warm and tepid, and the demand for goods will still prevail. The asphalt analysts of the Business Agency expect that the short-term domestic asphalt market will be dominated by shocks.

According to the data monitoring of the Business News Agency, the market price of acrylonitrile in February rose in the early stage and slightly consolidated in the later stage. As of February 28, the price of bulk water in the acrylonitrile market was 10500 yuan/ton, up 4.35% from 10062 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month, and the monthly high was 10800 yuan/ton. At the beginning of the month, the price of raw materials rose slightly, the cost drove the bullish atmosphere of acrylonitrile, and the demand for the proper replenishment of acrylonitrile for downstream construction after the festival promoted the price of acrylonitrile; On the one hand, the narrow consolidation of raw material prices in the middle and late ten days lacks strong support on the cost side, and further recovery in the downstream will take time. There is no obvious improvement on the fundamentals, and the narrow consolidation of acrylonitrile prices.

In February, the acrylonitrile unit started operation with a slight fluctuation.

In February, the price of raw material propylene was in a narrow range, and the cost of acrylonitrile was supported; The downstream products of acrylonitrile rose and fell, and the overall stability of the construction just needed support for acrylonitrile. According to the monitoring of the Business News Agency, as of February 28, the domestic propylene price was 7470 yuan/ton, down 0.80% from 7530 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month, with a peak of 7695 yuan/ton and a low of 7426 yuan/ton.

Since February, the operating rate of downstream ABS has declined slightly, but still remains at more than 85%, which has just needed support for acrylonitrile; Polyacrylamide and nitrile rubber are basically stable in operation, with a small demand for acrylonitrile.

Aftermarket forecast: the acrylonitrile analyst of the business agency believes that on the one hand, the cost of acrylonitrile still has support, on the other hand, the current demand just needs strong support, and the market is still bullish; It is expected that the acrylonitrile market will rise again after consolidation.

Zinc price fluctuated and rose in February

According to the data monitoring of the Business News Agency, as of February 28, the zinc price was 23074 yuan/ton, down by 5.30% compared with the fluctuation of 24366 yuan/ton on February 1. The demand for increased inventory in the zinc market was less than expected, and the zinc price fell in February.

International zinc market

The tightening monetary policy of the Federal Reserve remains unchanged, the strength of the US dollar remains unchanged, the expectation of weak demand remains unchanged, and commodity prices fluctuate and fall; With the end of the peak heating and electricity consumption in Europe in winter, the operating rate of zinc smelting in Europe is expected to rise, the zinc inventory in London is expected to increase, and the supply of international zinc market is expected to increase; The international zinc market has sufficient supply and insufficient demand, and zinc price is under great pressure.

Domestic zinc market demand is expected to pick up

The domestic credit data released showed that China’s credit data in January exceeded expectations, and M2 growth rate exceeded expectations. The credit data met the market’s expectations for domestic economic recovery; The operating rate of zinc plating and die-casting zinc alloy has risen steadily, and the demand of zinc industry has warmed up; With the introduction of economic stimulus policies in many places in China, downstream demand has warmed up, and the rising momentum of zinc market has increased.

The domestic zinc market has sufficient supply

According to the results of incomplete output statistics, the output of zinc and zinc alloy of sample enterprises in January 2023 was 460000 tons, an increase of 1.3% on a year-on-year basis, an increase of 4000 tons on a month-on-month basis, and an increase of 0.6% on a month-on-month basis. The high level of zinc concentrate processing costs has been adjusted, the enthusiasm of zinc smelters remains, zinc smelters have resumed production, Henan Zinc Plant has been put into operation, the supply of zinc has increased, the social zinc inventory has accumulated, the output of domestic zinc market has increased, and the supply of zinc market is sufficient.

Aftermarket forecast

According to the data analyst of Business News Agency, the supply and demand of zinc market increased in February, but the demand growth was poor, and the zinc price fell in February. In the future, with the economic recovery, the demand of zinc market will continue to warm up, while the high price of zinc concentrate processing will fall, and the supply of zinc market will grow less than expected. The supply and demand of zinc market in the future will maintain a weak balance, and the expected weak shock of zinc price will stabilize.