According to the bulk list data of Business Society, the domestic propylene (Shandong) market rose first and then fell in April, with low volatility at the end of the month. At the beginning of April, the market was at 7138 yuan/ton, and on April 27th, the average price was 7098 yuan/ton, a monthly decrease of 0.56%, a decrease of 15.54% compared to the same period last year.

 

PVA 1799 (PVA BF17)

As of April 27th, the mainstream prices of propylene in different regions in China are as follows:

 

Region/ April 27th

Shandong region/ 7030-7050 yuan/ton

Northeast region/ 6650-6700 yuan/ton

East China region/ 7000-7050 yuan/ton

In the first half of April, propylene fluctuated and rose mainly, with a significant jump in crude oil prices at the beginning of the month and continued to rise. The positive cost side drove up propylene prices. At the same time, some devices in Shandong region have been shut down for maintenance, and supply has been tightened, driving the continuous rise in propylene prices. In the second half of April, international oil prices fell and propylene prices rose to high levels. There was a strong atmosphere of resistance in the downstream, and trading turned weak. Propylene companies sold out and the market continued until the end of the month. As of April 26th, the mainstream quotation in the Shandong propylene market is 7030-7050 yuan/ton.

 

POLYVINYL ALCOHOL

On the cost side: In April, the prices of upstream propylene products have fluctuated, while the prices of propane and methanol continue to decline. The prices of liquefied gas and naphtha have increased, but their support for propylene is limited. On the demand side: downstream derivatives of propylene have seen more declines and less gains, while the main downstream polypropylene is generally weak. Other downstream products have performed average, and the demand side remains strong.

 

Propylene analysts from the Chemical Branch of the Business Society believe that the current propylene market is dominated by demand, and the downstream procurement atmosphere is relatively weak. The upstream market is expected to enter May due to a weak and volatile short-term market.

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Acetic anhydride prices fluctuated and fell in April

 

PVA 2699

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of April 26th, the price of acetic anhydride was 5450 yuan/ton, a fluctuation decrease of 0.23% compared to the price of 5462.50 yuan/ton on April 1st. The price of raw material acetic acid fluctuated and fell, weakening cost support, and the price of acetic anhydride fluctuated and fell in April.

 

Acetic acid prices fluctuated and fell in April

 

According to the market analysis system of acetic acid products in the Business Society, as of April 26, the price of acetic acid was 3250 yuan/ton, a fluctuating decrease of 1.02% compared to the price of 3283.33 yuan/ton on April 1. In April, the price of acetic acid fluctuated and fell. Acetic acid companies started at a low level, and the supply of acetic acid was insufficient. The support for the rise in acetic acid prices weakened, and the downward pressure increased. In the future, the downward pressure on acetic anhydride increased.

 

POLYVINYL ALCOHOL

Methanol prices fluctuated and fell in an N-shaped pattern in April

 

According to the methanol commodity market analysis system of the Business Society, as of April 26, the price of methanol was 2491.67 yuan/ton, a fluctuating decrease of 2.73% compared to the price of methanol on April 1, which was 2561.67 yuan/ton. In April, the price of methanol fluctuated and fell, while the cost of acetic acid decreased. In the future, the downward pressure on acetic anhydride increased.

 

Future prospects

 

Analysts from Business Society’s Acetic Anhydride Data believe that in April, the prices of acetic acid and methanol fluctuated and fell, resulting in a decrease in acetic anhydride costs, low operating rates among acetic anhydride manufacturers, and insufficient supply of acetic anhydride. In the future, the cost of acetic anhydride has decreased and the supply is temporarily stable. It is expected that the price of acetic anhydride will weaken and stabilize in the future.

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The high price of aluminum has fallen back

 

POLYVINYL ALCOHOL

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, on April 25, 2023, the average price of domestic aluminum ingots in the East China market was 18843.33 yuan/ton, a daily decrease of 0.37%, and an increase of 0.89% compared to the aluminum price of 18676.67 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month (April 1).

 

In the long run, after the current high price has fallen, it has been fluctuating sideways within the range of 17500 to 19500 yuan/ton. In mid April, aluminum prices improved, breaking through 19000 yuan/ton within the month, and starting to decline this week.

 

Overview of recent market trends and motivations

 

The insufficient precipitation in the southwest and northwest has triggered a trend of reduced production of electrolytic aluminum, driving up the early aluminum price market. Recently, the hype has been released, and the high aluminum price has slightly declined.

 

Overview of basic data on supply and demand

 

Inventory data: The social inventory of aluminum ingots decreased significantly in April. Inventory data shows that as of April 24th, the social inventory of mainstream regions in China was 838000 tons, a decrease of 132000 tons compared to the inventory of 220000 tons removed on March 30th and the historical inventory of the same period in April 2022.

 

Import and export data:

 

Raw material end:

 

According to data released by the General Administration of Customs on April 20th, China’s import volume of alumina (excluding artificial corundum) in March was 70008.60 tons, a decrease of 61.78% month on month and 62.98% year-on-year. Among them, Indonesia is the largest supplier, importing 32041.97 tons of alumina from the country that month, a decrease of 60.96% month on month and a significant increase of 2076.72% year-on-year.

 

In March, China’s alumina exports reached 50000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 313.6%; From January to March, the cumulative export volume was 31 tons, a year-on-year increase of 1362.9%.

 

PVA 0588 ( PVA BP05)

In March, China imported 12.05 million tons of aluminum ore sand and concentrate, a year-on-year increase of 3.0%; From January to March, the cumulative import of aluminum ore sand and concentrate reached 35.65 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 9.2%.

 

Raw aluminum:

 

According to customs data, the total import volume of domestic raw aluminum in March 2023 was 72100 tons, a decrease of 6.4% month on month and a year-on-year increase of 82.8%. The total export volume of raw aluminum in March was 5282 tons, a year-on-year increase of 149.2% and a year-on-year decrease of 87.5%. In March, the domestic raw aluminum trade showed a net import of 66800 tons, compared to a net export of 2826 tons in the same period last year. In the first quarter of 2023, the total net import of domestic raw aluminum reached 213000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 804%.

 

The latest data from the General Administration of Customs shows that in March 2023, China exported 497400 tons of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products, a year-on-year decrease of 16.3%; From January to March, the cumulative export volume was 1.3778 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 15.4%. In March, China imported 205500 tons of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products, a year-on-year increase of 1.8%; From January to March, the cumulative import volume was 574800 tons, a year-on-year increase of 7.8%.

 

In terms of downstream aluminum products: In the first quarter of 2023, the total export volume of aluminum products in China was approximately 1.312 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 15%; The year-on-year decline in aluminum exports in March was significant, mainly due to a 23.5% year-on-year decrease in plate and strip exports. Other sectors recorded an increase year-on-year, with aluminum profile exports significantly increasing both month on month and year on year.

 

Production data:

 

According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, China’s alumina production in March 2023 was 6.812 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 0.5%; The cumulative production from January to March was 19.784 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 6.3%.

 

The production of electrolytic aluminum in March was 3.367 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 3.0%; The cumulative production from January to March was 10.102 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 5.9%.

 

The aluminum production in March was 5.789 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 9.1%; The cumulative production from January to March was 14.323 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 2.9%.

 

The aluminum alloy production in March was 1.323 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 16.0%; The cumulative production from January to March was 3.129 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 12.3%.

 

Future market forecast

 

From the supply side perspective, production remained stable in April, and inventory data showed a clear trend of inventory depletion in the electrolytic aluminum industry. The main game point currently lies in the actual supply and demand changes in the later stage. It is expected that aluminum prices will mainly fluctuate around 18800 yuan/ton in the short term, and we will be watching downstream consumption intensity in the near future.

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Recent price trends of urea

 

PVA 0599 (PVA BF05)

According to the commodity analysis system of the business community, the price of urea in the domestic urea market fell slightly this week, from 2708.12 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 2675.00 yuan/ton at the end of the week, down 1.22%. Weekend prices have decreased by 9.66% compared to the same period last year. On April 23, the urea commodity index was 124.42, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 18.32% from the cycle’s highest point of 152.33 points (2022-05-15), and an increase of 123.78% from the lowest point of 55.60 points on August 17, 2016. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1st, 2011 to the present)

 

Reduced cost support, average downstream demand, and abundant urea supply

 

From the supply side perspective, the mainstream price of urea in China has slightly decreased this week.

 

From the data of the upstream and downstream industry chains, it can be seen that there have been ups and downs in the urea upstream market this week. The price of liquefied natural gas has slightly increased, rising from 4206.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 4524.00 yuan/ton at the weekend, an increase of 7.56%. The weekend price has decreased by 35.19% compared to the same period last year; The price of anthracite was adjusted at a low level. This week, the price of anthracite in Yangquan (washing block) was 1260 yuan/ton, which was temporarily stable compared with the beginning of the week; The price of liquid ammonia has dropped significantly, from 3316.67 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 3050.00 yuan/ton at the weekend, a decrease of 8.04%. The weekend price has decreased by 38.84% compared to the same period last year. Upstream raw material prices fluctuate, with average support for urea prices. The downstream melamine price of urea has slightly increased this week, from 7700.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 7725.00 yuan/ton at the weekend, an increase of 0.32%.

 

POLYVINYL ALCOHOL

From a demand perspective: Agricultural demand is average, while industrial demand is normal. In some southern regions, rice has started to prepare and use fertilizers, and agricultural demand is average. The operating rate of the compound fertilizer plant is acceptable, and the enthusiasm for urea procurement is average. The board and melamine enterprises are operating normally, and the main focus is on purchasing just in need. From a supply perspective, the daily production of urea is around 160000-170000 tons, indicating sufficient supply.

 

Small fluctuation and decline in the future market

 

In late April, the domestic urea market may experience a slight fluctuation and decline. Urea analysts from Business Society believe that there are ups and downs in the upstream of urea, and the cost of urea is generally supported. Downstream agricultural demand is average, while industrial demand is normal. The daily production of urea is around 160000-170000 tons, with sufficient supply. In the future, urea may experience a narrow range of fluctuations and decline.

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Recent price trends of calcium carbide

 

PVA 1799 (PVA BF17)

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the factory prices of calcium carbide in the northwest region have slightly decreased this week. This week, the average ex factory price of mainstream calcium carbide manufacturers in northwest China dropped from 3083.33 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 2983.33 yuan/ton at the weekend, a decrease of 3.24%. Weekend prices have decreased by 26.34% compared to the same period last year. On April 22, the calcium carbide commodity index was 78.17, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 63.17% from the cycle’s highest point of 212.23 points (2021-10-26), and an increase of 40.87% from the lowest point of 55.49 points on March 14, 2016. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1st, 2011 to the present)

 

Insufficient upstream support, average downstream demand

 

From the supply side perspective, the ex factory prices of calcium carbide in the northwest region have slightly decreased this week, with average inventory levels among manufacturers.

 

POLYVINYL ALCOHOL

The upstream semicarbon market maintained stable operation, and the downstream PVC market price rose slightly. This weekend, the price of Shenmulan charcoal is around 1290-1400 yuan/ton, and the price is temporarily stable. The PVC market price this week rose from 5944.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 6002.00 yuan/ton at the end of the week, up 0.13%. Compared to the same period last year, it decreased by 32.94% year-on-year. The price of PVC market rose slightly, and downstream customers were not enthusiastic about calcium carbide procurement. The downstream PVC market had a negative impact on calcium carbide prices.

 

Calcium carbide may fluctuate and decline in the aftermarket

 

In late April, the calcium carbide market may experience a narrow range of fluctuations and declines. The price of raw material blue charcoal remains stable and the cost support is average. The downstream PVC market has been weak and there is insufficient downstream demand. In late April, the price of calcium carbide in the northwest region may fluctuate and decline in a narrow range, with consolidation being the main trend.

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1、 Price trend

 

sulphamic acid

According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, the domestic market for imported potassium chloride has stabilized at a low level this week, with a price of 3512.50 yuan/ton. On April 16th, the potassium chloride (imported) commodity index was 111.51, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 36.13% from the cycle’s highest point of 174.60 points (2022-06-21), and an increase of 91.43% from the lowest point of 58.25 points on August 6th, 2020. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from March 1st, 2012 to present)

 

2、 Market analysis

 

The prices of mainstream domestic potassium chloride manufacturers are temporarily stable this week. The port’s 62% self raised price of white potassium is around 3200-3300 yuan/ton. The self raised price of 60% Dahong granules at the port is around 3150-3250 yuan/ton. Border trade accounts for 62% of Russian white potassium at around 2800-2900 yuan/ton.

 

From the downstream market situation of potassium chloride, the factory price of potassium carbonate has slightly decreased this week, from 8940.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 8840.00 yuan/ton at the weekend, a decrease of 1.12%. The weekend price has decreased by 2.50% compared to the same period last year. The factory price of potassium nitrate slightly decreased this week, from 5650.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 5575.00 yuan/ton at the weekend, a decrease of 1.33%, a year-on-year decrease of 20.92% compared to the same period last year. Overall, the downstream market for potassium chloride has slightly declined, and downstream customers’ demand for potassium chloride has weakened.

 

3、 Future Market Forecast

 

In late April, the overall trend of potassium chloride market may fluctuate and decline in a narrow range, with consolidation being the main trend. The prices of potassium chloride in salt lakes and Zangge have stabilized at low levels. The downstream market of potassium chloride has slightly declined, and downstream demand has weakened, with primary demand for procurement. International potassium fertilizer prices continue to decline. Potassium chloride analysts from Business Society believe that domestic potassium chloride import prices may slightly decline in the short term.

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1、 Price trend

 

PVA 2699

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of the business community, the price of Yunnan Guizhou yellow phosphorus market was lowered this week. The average price of yellow phosphorus on Monday was 29800 yuan/ton, while on Friday it was 28500 yuan/ton. During the week, the price decreased by 4.36%.

 

2、 Market analysis

 

The price of Yunnan Guizhou yellow phosphorus market fell this week. At present, the overall market trading situation of yellow phosphorus is not good, and there is light demand on the market. Some enterprises are parking, and the operating rate of yellow phosphorus is slowly decreasing. The on-site inventory is still acceptable, and the supply and demand are still relatively stagnant. The enterprise will not provide external quotations for the time being, and the actual order will be discussed in detail. Downstream procurement is more cautious, with moderate stocking and a focus on immediate demand. As of now, the mainstream quotation is around 26000-29000 yuan/ton, and the actual transaction is negotiable.

 

As of April 13, 2023, the reference average price of 30% grade phosphate ore in China is around 1106 yuan/ton; Compared to April 9, 2023 (reference price of phosphate rock is 1110 yuan/ton), the price has been reduced by 4 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.36%. At present, due to the weak operation of downstream yellow phosphorus, the trading atmosphere inside the phosphate ore field is light, and the new orders of phosphate ore in Yunnan region are generally traded. The phosphate ore data analyst of the Business Society believes that in the short term, the domestic phosphate ore market mainly focuses on narrow range consolidation and operation, and the specific trend still needs to pay more attention to changes in supply and demand information.

 

POLYVINYL ALCOHOL

In terms of coke, according to the commodity market analysis system of the Business Society, the second round of increase and decrease in the coke market was implemented from April 7 to April 14, 2023. As of April 14, the price of quasi first-class metallurgical coke in Shanxi region was 2386 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.05%. During this cycle, the coke market remained weak, with the second round of increases and decreases falling to the ground, with a cumulative decrease of 100-200 yuan/ton. After two rounds of decreases, the market atmosphere remained slightly weak.

 

As for phosphoric acid, the market price of phosphoric acid dropped sharply this week. The average price of phosphoric acid on Monday was 7450 yuan/ton, while on Friday it was 7137.5 yuan/ton. During the week, the price was significantly reduced by 4.19%. At present, the demand for phosphoric acid in the market is sluggish and the market is weak. The trend of raw phosphorus ore and yellow phosphorus is poor, and the phosphoric acid market is operating weakly. Downstream demand is weak, and the mentality of buying up instead of buying down has increased.

 

3、 Future Market Forecast

 

Yellow phosphorus analysts from the Chemical Branch of the Business Society believe that the current decline in upstream phosphate rock prices and the second round of lifting and lowering in the coke market have resulted in weak cost support. The downstream market has significantly decreased, and the wait-and-see atmosphere is obvious. Overall, the atmosphere in the yellow phosphorus market is relatively empty. It is expected that yellow phosphorus will continue to be weak in the short term, and pay attention to changes in the news.

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The market for nitrile rubber saw a significant decline in March. According to monitoring by Business Society, as of March 31st, the price was 15850 yuan/ton, a decrease of 9.04% from 17425 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month. In March, the price of nitrile rubber raw materials significantly decreased, and downstream purchases were mostly made according to demand. The market supply was slightly lower in the early stage and stable in the later stage. The listed prices of nitrile rubber enterprises were significantly reduced, and market quotations gradually declined.

 

PVA 2088 (PVA BP20)

In March, the prices of raw materials butadiene and acrylonitrile decreased, and the cost of nitrile rubber significantly decreased. According to the monitoring of Business Society, as of March 31, the price of butadiene was 8551 yuan/ton, a decrease of 11.96% from 9712 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month; As of March 31st, the price of acrylonitrile was 10050 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4.29% from 10500 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month.

 

POLYVINYL ALCOHOL

The recovery of demand in the downstream product industry of nitrile rubber is slow, with small orders being the main procurement for nitrile rubber, and few market transactions. The demand for nitrile rubber is relatively weak.

 

Future forecast: Business Society nitrile analysts believe that the current decline in raw material prices is due to a decline in nitrile rubber costs, while downstream demand support is weak. It is expected that the nitrile rubber market will be weak and consolidate in the short term.

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According to the data monitored by the Business News Agency, on March 31, the domestic carbon black N220 was quoted at 11600 yuan/ton. This month, the domestic carbon black market price fell first and then rose, and the current volatility is relatively strong.

 

POLYVINYL ALCOHOL

Cost: The overall operation of the domestic high-temperature coal tar market was weak this month. At the end of the month, the decline in the domestic high-temperature coal tar new auction price slowed down. The decline in mainstream regions was basically within 100 yuan, and some low-end prices even warmed. This month, carbon black cost support is weak, and downstream deep processing and carbon black enterprises are still operating at a loss. The market is affected by buying up and not buying down. Downstream enterprises are cautious in signing new orders, and the transaction atmosphere is light. The downstream market continues to hold down prices, and there is a lot of negative sentiment in the market. It is expected that the coal tar market will continue to operate in a weak manner in the short term.

 

Supply and demand side: Currently, the operating rate of carbon black enterprises remains stable as a whole, and some factories and devices are undergoing maintenance. Due to the weak price of raw materials, downstream enterprises are mostly bullish on the aftermarket of carbon black, resulting in weak supply and demand in the carbon black market.

 

PVA 1799 (PVA BF17)

In terms of downstream tire companies, the overall operating rate has maintained good, but affected by the continuous decline in carbon black prices, companies have a strong bearish atmosphere towards the carbon black market, slow shipments, strong market price depression, and moderate enthusiasm for taking goods. It is reported that some tire companies have production reduction plans in April, and the negotiation of tire orders in April is expected to be relatively stagnant. Other customers in the rubber product industry are still in a wait-and-see mood, and there is still a resistance to the current carbon black price, mainly due to the need for procurement.

 

Overall, the price of raw materials has continued to decline significantly, and the support for carbon black prices has weakened. Although major downstream tire companies have started construction well, they are bearish on the carbon black market, with strong market pressure sentiment. It is comprehensively expected that carbon black will operate steadily, moderately, and weakly in the short term.

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