1、 Price trend

According to monitoring data from Business Society, the overall price of soda ash was weak in June. The average market price of light soda ash at the beginning of the month was 2080 yuan/ton, while the average market price at the end of the month was around 1960 yuan/ton. The price decreased by 5.77%, a decrease of 32.88% compared to the same period last year. On June 28th, the light soda ash commodity index was 100.51, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 46.85% from the cycle’s highest point of 189.10 points (2021-11-07), and an increase of 59.16% from the lowest point of 63.15 points on November 18th, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1st, 2011 to the present)

2、 Market analysis

According to monitoring data from Business Society, the overall price of soda ash is weak this month. The current mainstream market price of light soda ash in East China is about 1900-2100 yuan/ton. The price of soda ash in North China has temporarily stabilized, and the current market price of light soda ash is about 2100-2200 yuan/ton. The market trading atmosphere is relatively average, with data showing that the overall operating rate of soda ash is around 91%.

In terms of demand: According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, the spot price of glass has decreased this month. On June 1st, the average price of glass was 22.31 yuan/square meter, and at the end of June 27th, the average price was 21.63 yuan/square meter. During the month, the price decreased by 3.05%. The spot price of glass fell in June. In the first ten days of June, the market price was light, the overall industry production and sales situation was general, and the glass Spot market price was reduced. In the middle of the year, the price of glass Spot market rose and fell, and the market transaction was slightly better than that in the first ten days. The glass Spot market weakened in the last ten days, and the overall market confidence was poor. The downstream should purchase cautiously, replenish as needed, and wait and see more. As of now, the market quotation in the Shahe region is around 20.4 yuan/square meter to 21.75 yuan/square meter.

According to the price monitoring of the Business Society, in the 25th week of 2023 (6.19-6.23), there were 0 products that rose or fell in the chlor alkali industry price list, 2 products that fell, and 5 products that rose or fell to 0. The main commodities falling include caustic soda (-1.92%) and flake soda (-0.40%). This week’s average increase or decrease was -0.33%.

Analysts from Business Society believe that according to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, the price of soda ash increased in the first ten days of this month, but decreased in the middle and late ten days. Currently, the domestic price of soda ash is stable and the price fluctuation is relatively small. The soda ash plant is relatively stable, and the overall trading atmosphere is acceptable. Recently, downstream soda ash has been purchased on demand, and there is a supply-demand game. Overall, it is expected that the price of soda ash will fluctuate in the later stage, depending on the downstream market demand.

1、 Price trend

According to the commodity analysis system of the business community, the price of imported Potassium chloride in the domestic market fell slightly in June, and the price of Potassium chloride fell from 2825.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 2775.00 yuan/ton at the end of the month, a drop of 1.77%. On June 27, the Potassium chloride (import) commodity index was 88.10, down 0.79 points from yesterday, down 49.54% from the cycle’s highest point of 174.60 (2022-06-21), and up 51.24% from the lowest point of 58.25 on August 6, 2020. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from March 1st, 2012 to present)

2、 Market analysis

Market situation of domestic imported Potassium chloride in June

From the supply side, the quotation of domestic mainstream Potassium chloride dealers fell slightly this month. The arrival price of Potassium chloride in Qinghai Salt Lake at the end of the month is about 2500 yuan/ton. At the end of the month, 62% of the port’s white potassium was around 2400-2500 yuan/ton, 60% of the port’s red particles were around 2800 yuan/ton, and 62% of the border trade’s Russian white potassium was around 2250 yuan/ton, all of which showed a decrease. The port stock of Potassium chloride is about 2.6-2.7 million tons.

From the demand side, the market price of potassium carbonate has significantly decreased this month, from 8180.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 7760.00 yuan/ton at the end of the month, a decrease of 5.13%. The price at the end of the month has decreased by 23.36% compared to the same period last year. The ex factory price of Potassium nitrate rose slightly this month, from 5100.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 5400.00 yuan/ton at the end of the month, an increase of 5.88%, and a year-on-year decrease of 29.30%. On the whole, the downstream market of Potassium chloride has ups and downs. The agricultural demand is weak, the industrial demand is general, the market has entered the slack season, and the downstream purchasing enthusiasm for Potassium chloride has weakened.

3、 Future Market Forecast

The market trend of Potassium chloride in the first ten days of July may slightly fluctuate and fall, mainly finishing. The price of Potassium chloride in Salt Lake and Zangger was adjusted at a low level, mainly based on contracts. Downstream agricultural demand weakens, industrial demand is average, and procurement is mainly on demand. Supply exceeds demand, and the price of Potassium chloride may fall in the future.

According to the Commodity Analysis System of the Business Society, the domestic sulfuric acid market prices increased significantly in June. The market price of sulfuric acid has increased from 182.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 196.00 yuan/ton at the end of the month, an increase of 7.69%. The price at the end of the month decreased by 80.75% year-on-year.

On June 26th, the sulfuric acid commodity index was 30.51, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 83.78% from the cycle’s highest point of 188.07 points (2022-04-13), and an increase of 7.70% from the lowest point of 28.33 points on June 13th, 2023. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1st, 2011 to the present)

From the supply side perspective, the prices of mainstream domestic sulfuric acid manufacturers have slightly increased this month, and the inventory of manufacturers is relatively low.

Cost side: Sulfur market rises first and then falls

The ex factory price of sulfur rose first and then fell in June. The price of sulfur first increased from 810.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 840 yuan/ton on June 13, an increase of 3.70%, and then dropped to 746.67 yuan/ton at the end of the month, a decrease of 11.11%. The price at the end of the month decreased by 79.98% year-on-year. The sulfur market rose first and then fell, with average cost support, which had a bearish impact on the price of sulfuric acid.

On the demand side: The market for hydrofluoric acid has slightly declined

The hydrofluoric acid market slightly declined in June. The price decreased by 0.29% from 9685.71 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 9657.14 yuan/ton at the end of the month. The price at the end of the month decreased by 17.03% year-on-year. In June, the market price of titanium dioxide stabilized at a low level, with a price of 16133.33 yuan/ton. At the end of the month, the price decreased by 21.11% year-on-year. Overall, the downstream market of sulfuric acid has slightly declined, and downstream manufacturers have weak enthusiasm for purchasing sulfuric acid.

Looking at the future market: In mid to early July, the domestic sulfuric acid market may experience a slight fluctuation and decline, with consolidation being the main trend. The downstream market of hydrofluoric acid and titanium dioxide declined slightly, and the downstream purchase enthusiasm for sulfuric acid was general. Upstream sulfur prices have significantly decreased, with insufficient cost support. Business Society sulfuric acid analysts believe that in the short term, the sulfuric acid market may experience slight fluctuations and declines due to various factors such as supply and demand and raw materials, with consolidation being the main focus.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the domestic BDO market fell first and then rose in June, with a consolidation of fluctuations. From June 1st to 26th, the average price of domestic BDO increased from 11300 yuan/ton to 11422 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 1.09% and a maximum amplitude of 4.39% during the cycle. The price decreased by 47.70% year-on-year.

The main factor affecting the BDO market situation this month is still supply and demand. The supply side price increase of production enterprises drives the market atmosphere. However, downstream demand is mainly in demand, and the transmission is not smooth. The downstream industry has increased resistance to high prices. The supply and demand sides negotiate and play games, and it is difficult to have a significant breakthrough in the BDO market situation.

Cost side, raw material calcium carbide: In June, the domestic calcium carbide market was weak and sorted out, with a decrease of 7.94% during the month. At present, the downstream unloading trucks are at a high level, and there have been maintenance landings in Shanxi, Shandong, and Heilongjiang regions, resulting in regional weakening of demand. In terms of methanol, the domestic methanol market fluctuated narrowly in June, with a decrease of 3.70% during the month. The market for methanol raw material coal has rebounded, but the overall circulation volume of the domestic methanol market is relatively large, and the supply-demand contradiction still shrouds the methanol market. Recently, the market for calcium carbide and methanol has been operating at low levels, and there is currently no significant improvement in the cost of BDO.

On the demand side, PTMEG and PBT in downstream industries are slightly higher in construction, but both maintain contract procurement, and spot replenishment is not actively high. The atmosphere of inquiry in other downstream markets has increased, but the actual order release is low, and the ability to accept high prices is weak due to poor cost transmission, suppressing the trend of the BDO market. Short term BDO demand side biased bearish impact.

In the future, it is predicted that with the restart of maintenance equipment, the overall market supply will increase. At the same time, the downstream of the terminal will be in the off-season, and there will be no significant increase in raw material digestion in the short term. BDO analysts from Business Society predict that the domestic BDO market may fluctuate and consolidate.

This week’s lead market (6.16-6.25) fluctuated and rose, with the average price in the domestic market at 15265 yuan/ton over the weekend and 15355 yuan/ton over the weekend, up 0.59%.

The K-bar chart of commodity prices uses the concept of a price trend K-line to reflect weekly or monthly price fluctuations in the form of a bar chart. Investors can buy and sell investments based on the changes in the K-bar chart. Red indicates an increase; Green indicates a decline; The height of the K-bar represents the range of fluctuations. Since the market entered September, the expectations of downstream battery companies have increased during the peak season, driving the price of primary lead to rise. After the peak season ended, prices continued to weaken, and the recent market trend has been volatile.

In the futures market, for three trading days this week, Shanghai Lead continued to rise on the basis of expected improvement in lead ingot exports. As of June 21, the futures market held 95613 positions, with significant increase in main and secondary contract positions and a significant increase in trading activity. The price of the Spot market has followed the overall upward trend of the futures market this week. The market price is high and volatile, and the market trading has improved compared with the previous period. In terms of supply and demand, the maintenance of primary lead and recycled lead enterprises has basically ended in mid month. Currently, manufacturers are actively operating. With the rise of lead ingot prices and the recovery of manufacturers’ profits, they are actively operating. If the market continues to maintain the current heat, there are expectations of an increase in lead ingot supply in the future. In terms of demand, the downstream market is still in the off-season, and the sales situation of batteries is still not obvious and easy to grasp. In the future, Business Society predicts that the lead ingot market will experience a slight upward trend in the short term driven by export expectations, with limited market volatility in the off-season. We will focus on the impact of macro level news on the market in the future.

London Metal Exchange (LME) lead inventory of 39775 tons will be temporarily stable on June 23, 2023 (unit: ton)

On June 24th, the base metal index stood at 1206 points, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 25.37% from the cycle’s highest point of 1616 points (2022-03-09), and an increase of 87.85% from the lowest point of 642 points on November 24th, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from December 1st, 2011 to the present).

According to the price monitoring of Business Society, there were a total of 7 commodities in the non-ferrous sector on the list of rising and falling commodity prices in the 25th week of 2023 (6.19-6.23), with tin (1.65%), silicon metal (0.88%), and copper (0.77%) ranking among the top 3 commodities. There are a total of 12 products that have decreased compared to the previous month, with the top three products falling being metal neodymium (-3.12%), silver (-2.64%), and praseodymium neodymium oxide (-2.02%). This week’s average increase or decrease was -0.45%.

Recent price trends of isooctanol

According to the Commodity Analysis System of the Business Society, the market price of isooctanol in Shandong Province has slightly increased this week. This week, the average price of isooctanol in the mainstream market in Shandong region increased from 8660.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 8820.00 yuan/ton at the weekend, an increase of 1.85%. Weekend prices fell by 21.48% year-on-year. On June 18th, the isooctanol commodity index was 64.85, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 52.84% from the cycle’s highest point of 137.50 points (2021-08-08), and an increase of 84.50% from the lowest point of 35.15 points on February 1st, 2016. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1st, 2011 to the present)

Increased upstream support and better downstream demand

From the supply side perspective, the prices of mainstream manufacturers of isooctanol in Shandong have slightly increased this week, with average inventory levels.

From the upstream raw material market of isooctanol, the propylene market has slightly increased this week, with prices rising from 6180.75 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 6230.75 yuan/ton at the weekend, an increase of 0.81%. Weekend prices fell by 21.71% year-on-year. The upstream raw material market prices have slightly increased, leading to increased cost support and a positive impact on the price of isooctanol due to the impact of supply and demand.

From the downstream market of isooctanol, the factory price of DOP has slightly increased this week. The price of DOP increased from 9275.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 9492.50 yuan/ton at the weekend, an increase of 2.35%. Weekend prices fell 17.55% year-on-year. Downstream DOP prices have slightly increased, and downstream customers are actively increasing their purchases of isooctanol.

Future prospects

In late June, the Shandong isooctanol market may experience slight fluctuations and gains. The upstream propylene market slightly increased, with increased cost support. The downstream DOP market has slightly increased, and downstream demand is good. Business Society Isooctanol analysts believe that in the short term, the domestic isooctanol market may experience slight fluctuations and increases due to various factors such as supply and demand and raw materials.

Recently, the price trend of domestic fluorite has been stable. As of the 16th, the average price of domestic fluorite was 3136.25 yuan/ton, which is the same as the price of 3136.25 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week. The price trend of domestic fluorite is temporarily stable.

Supply side: slight increase in fluorite production and easing of supply

The current game situation in the domestic fluorite industry still exists, and overall, the operating rate of enterprises has slightly increased, leading to an increase in spot supply of fluorite. On the one hand, there is still tension in upstream mining, and outdated mines will continue to be phased out. In terms of adding new mines, mineral investigation work remains challenging. In addition, mining enterprises are facing increasingly strict safety and environmental requirements, making it more difficult to start fluorite mines. The shortage of raw materials has restricted fluorite enterprises from starting operations. On the other hand, the operating load of domestic hydrofluoric acid is around 60%, and there is still a rigid demand for fluorite procurement. Some hydrofluoric acid enterprises have reduced production, resulting in a weakened demand for raw material fluorite. However, due to the tight supply of raw materials, the fluorite market still has some support and the price trend is stable.

Demand side: Stable price of hydrofluoric acid, sluggish refrigerant market

The price trend of domestic hydrofluoric acid is temporarily stable, and the mainstream price of hydrofluoric acid discussed in various regions in China remains at 9400-9900 yuan/ton. Recently, some devices have been shut down for maintenance, and the spot supply of hydrofluoric acid has slightly decreased. The order situation of manufacturers’ hydrofluoric acid is weak, and the domestic hydrofluoric acid market trend is not good. The high price of raw material fluorite and the poor demand for downstream refrigerants have caused serious losses for hydrofluoric acid production enterprises, and some hydrofluoric acid enterprises have reduced their production burden, For fluorite, procurement is mainly based on demand.

The market for downstream refrigerant products at the terminal is sluggish, and the operating rate of the refrigerant industry remains low. Recently, there has been sufficient refrigerant supply, driving the domestic refrigerant R22 price to remain low. The load of refrigerant R22 manufacturers is not high, and the domestic market performance is weak. Inventory digestion is the main focus, and procurement demand has not yet been followed up. Domestic R134a manufacturers operate at low loads, and the price trend of R134a is weak and stable. Currently, on-demand procurement is the main trend, while downstream enterprises are not operating high. Traders have a strong wait-and-see attitude, and the demand for consumer orders has not yet warmed up. Market confidence is insufficient. Currently, the market quotation for refrigerant R134a is mostly in the range of 24000-25000 yuan/ton, and some enterprises have not resumed production. Demand orders are still small, and the market is stagnant and declining. Overall, the refrigerant market is not good, The operating rate is less than 30%, coupled with a decline in the export market, resulting in weak domestic and external demand. The refrigerant market is sluggish, and upstream raw material procurement is scarce. The price trend of fluorite market is temporarily stable.

In addition to the traditional demand of the refrigerant industry in the downstream, fluorite, as an important mineral raw material for modern industry, is constantly developing in demand in emerging fields. It is also used in strategic emerging industries such as new energy and new materials, as well as in national defense, nuclear industry and other fields, including Lithium hexafluorophosphate, PVDF, graphite anode, photovoltaic panels, etc. With the demand of new energy and semiconductor and other fields, fluorite applications have been supported to a certain extent.

Future Market Forecast: Although the supply of fluorite ore has not improved recently, the hydrofluoric acid market price remains low, and there is a downward trend in the operation of hydrofluoric acid plants. In addition, the demand for the refrigerant industry has not improved significantly, and the refrigerant market is sluggish. Affected by bearish factors, Chen Ling, an analyst at Business Society, believes that fluorite prices may slightly decrease in the future.

Recent price trends of urea

According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, the domestic urea market price has slightly increased this week, with urea prices rising from 2377.50 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 2404.38 yuan/ton at the weekend, an increase of 1.13%. Weekend prices fell 26.02% year-on-year. On June 11th, the urea commodity index was 111.83, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 26.59% from the cycle’s highest point of 152.33 points (2022-05-15), and an increase of 101.13% from the lowest point of 55.60 points on August 17th, 2016. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1st, 2011 to the present)

Cost support is average, downstream demand is good, and urea supply is sufficient

From the supply side perspective, the mainstream price of urea in China has slightly increased this week.

From the data of the upstream and downstream industry chains, it can be seen that there have been ups and downs in the urea upstream market this week. The price of liquefied natural gas has slightly increased, rising from 3520.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 3666.00 yuan/ton at the weekend, an increase of 4.15%, and the weekend price has decreased by 41.92% year-on-year; The price of Anthracite dropped slightly. This weekend, the price of Anthracite (washing block) in Yangquan was 1060 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan/ton; The price of liquid ammonia fluctuated and increased, rising from 2983.33 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 3000.00 yuan/ton at the weekend, an increase of 0.56%. The weekend price decreased by 42.57% year-on-year. Upstream raw material prices fluctuate, providing general support for urea prices. This week, the downstream melamine price of urea significantly decreased, dropping from 7125.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 6600.00 yuan/ton at the weekend, a decrease of 7.37%.

From the perspective of demand, agricultural demand has increased while industrial demand is normal. In some southern regions, rice has started to prepare and use fertilizers, leading to an increase in agricultural demand. The operating rate of the compound fertilizer plant is acceptable, and the enthusiasm for urea procurement is average. The board and melamine enterprises are operating normally, and the main focus is on purchasing just in need. From a supply perspective, the daily production of urea is around 160000-170000 tons, indicating sufficient supply.

Small fluctuation and decline in the future market

In mid June, the domestic urea market may experience a slight fluctuation and decline. Business Society urea analysts believe that the upstream of urea has slightly declined, and the cost support for urea is insufficient. The peak agricultural season in the downstream has not yet begun, and high nitrogen compound fertilizers have basically ended. Industrial demand is normal. The daily production of urea is around 160000-170000 tons, with sufficient supply. In the future, urea may experience a narrow range of fluctuations and decline.

According to the commodity market analysis system of the business community, as of June 9, the average price quoted by Epichlorohydrin enterprises was 8212.50 yuan/ton, down 5.06% compared with the price on Monday.

The market of Epichlorohydrin fell this week. Recently, the price of raw propylene has fluctuated in a narrow range. The cost of propylene method is generally supported, and the cost of raw glycerin has been adjusted in a narrow range. The cost of glycerin method is under great pressure, and the capacity utilization rate of the supply side industry has declined. However, the demand side performance is poor. Downstream consumption of raw materials is dominated by inventory. Inquiries into the market are not enthusiastic, and the mentality of the industry is insufficient. The cargo holders give up profits for shipment, and the focus of Epichlorohydrin market negotiation has declined.

Upstream propylene, according to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the reference price for propylene on June 8th was 6310.75, a decrease of 2.32% compared to June 1st (6460.75).

The downstream epoxy resin, according to the commodity market analysis system of the business community, the reference price of Epichlorohydrin was 8275.00 on June 8, 4.89% lower than that on June 1 (8700.00).

Analysts of Epichlorohydrin from the business agency believe that the demand side dominates the market at present, and the demand side follow-up is still insufficient. It is expected that the epichlorohydrin market will be weak in the short term, and more attention should be paid to the changes of supply side devices and raw material prices.

This week (5.29-6.5), the market for chloroform fluctuated and consolidated. According to data from Business Society, as of June 5th, the price of trichloromethane bulk water in Shandong Province was 2225 yuan/ton, unchanged from last Monday, with a cycle high of 2275 yuan/ton. The price of raw material methanol fluctuates weakly, and the cost support for trichloromethane is weak; The replenishment actions of some downstream enterprises have come to an end, and the demand for trichloromethane has weakened again, causing the market for trichloromethane to fluctuate and decline.

This week (5.29-6.5) saw slight fluctuations in the start of the methane chloride plant.

This week (5.29-6.5), the price of raw material methanol has stabilized at a low level, and the cost support for trichloromethane is still weak. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of June 5th, the spot price of methanol was 2180 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.28% from last Monday’s 2208 yuan/ton, and the low point during the cycle was 2160 yuan/ton.

The end of short-term replenishment orders, coupled with the gradual end of the peak season in the domestic refrigerant market, has temporarily stabilized the parking and maintenance prices of some downstream refrigerant R22 enterprises. In the short term, trichloromethane has risen and then decreased. In addition, the total production quota of R22 has been reduced by 19% to 181800 tons in 2023, making it difficult to improve the demand for trichloromethane in the medium to long term.

According to methane chloride data analysts from Business Society, although the overall domestic demand for trichloromethane is currently weak, coupled with low cost consolidation, it is expected that the market for trichloromethane will fluctuate in a narrow range in the future.