According to the commodity market analysis system of the business community, the price trend of the domestic ammonium nitrate market was temporarily stable this week. As of the weekend, the market price of ammonium nitrate was 4030 yuan/ton, unchanged from the beginning of the week’s price of 4030 yuan/ton, down 12.96% year on year.

 

PVA 1799 (PVA BF17)

This week, the price trend of the domestic ammonium nitrate market was temporarily stable, and the domestic ammonium nitrate manufacturers’ devices were operating stably. Recently, the supply of goods on the site was sufficient, the goods on the site were generally shipped, the manufacturer’s inventory was not high, the price of liquid ammonia at the upstream of the terminal was volatile, the price of nitric acid was low, and the price of ammonium nitrate was temporarily stable. Recently, the shipping market of ammonium nitrate manufacturers has been normal, and downstream purchases are on demand. Recently, downstream demand for nitro compound fertilizers has been normal, while domestic procurement in the downstream civilian explosive industry is average. Domestic ammonium nitrate manufacturers have not started production high, and the price of ammonium nitrate has been stable recently. As of now, the mainstream negotiation prices in Shaanxi region are 4900-5100 yuan/ton, Shandong region is 3900-4100 yuan/ton, and Hebei region is 4000-4100 yuan/ton.

 

The price trend of concentrated nitric acid in China has declined this week, with an average price of 2033.33 yuan/ton as of the 2nd, a decrease of 1.61% compared to the price of 2066.67 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week. Mainstream enterprises in East China offer prices ranging from 2000 to 2200 yuan/ton, while northern and central China offer prices ranging from 1900 to 2000 yuan/ton. At present, the pressure on the supply side of the concentrated nitric acid market is not decreasing, demand continues to be weak, and costs are declining. The supply of the concentrated nitric acid market is normal, and the market mainly relies on orders. The market volume is average, and industry insiders are mostly wait-and-see. The on-site price of nitric acid is decreasing, and the market situation of ammonium nitrate is weak and stable.

 

POLYVINYL ALCOHOL

The price trend of upstream liquid ammonia has slightly increased this week. As of the weekend, the price of liquid ammonia was 2950 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.57% compared to the price of 2933.33 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week. Recently, the operation of liquid ammonia manufacturers’ devices has been stable, and the inventory of manufacturers is still acceptable. There has been little change in the amount of ammonia released in China, and some merchants have seen a slight increase in prices. The overall liquid ammonia market situation has not changed much. The price rise of upstream liquid ammonia has brought some positive support to the ammonium nitrate market, and the price of ammonium nitrate market is temporarily stable.

 

Recently, the demand of downstream civil explosive industry is general, the price trend of liquid ammonia market has a downward trend, the price trend of nitric acid has declined, and the spot supply of ammonium nitrate is sufficient. Ammonium nitrate analysts from the business community believe that the market price of ammonium nitrate may decline slightly in the later period.

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1、 Price trend

 

PVA 2699

According to the bulk list data of Business Society, the overall price of toluene showed a “V” trend this month, with a continuous decline in the first half of the month and a slight rebound in the second half. On May 1st, the benchmark price of toluene was 7450 yuan/ton, and on May 31st, it was 7130 yuan/ton, a decrease of 320 yuan/ton or 4.3% compared to the beginning of the month.

 

In terms of crude oil, in the first half of the month, with the deepening of macro risk aversion and cautious trading atmosphere in the energy market, Gulf News reported on May 5th that Saudi Arabia has lowered crude oil futures prices in the Asian market; The Abu Dhabi National Oil Company of the United Arab Emirates announced that it will reduce crude oil shipments by 5% from May to seek a balance between supply and demand of crude oil; The unexpected increase in crude oil inventories in the United States has deepened market concerns about economic recession, and the oil market has developed in a volatile manner.

 

In the middle of the week, US crude oil inventories unexpectedly increased. EIA monthly reports predict that US crude oil production will increase by about 5% in 2023, and fuel demand will increase by 1%. It is expected that US crude oil production will increase by 5.1% to 12.53 million barrels per day in 2023, and oil production in major shale oil producing areas in the United States will reach a historic high in June; The United States intends to purchase 3 million barrels of sour crude oil to supplement its strategic oil reserves that are about to run out.

 

In the second half of the month, the United States initially reached an agreement to raise the debt ceiling, avoiding the risk of default, but there are still expectations of further interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve; Russian Deputy Prime Minister Novak stated that the current goal of Russia and OPEC+is to ensure a balance between supply and demand of crude oil to maintain market stability.

 

The crude oil price fluctuated and fluctuated in May. On May 31st, the benchmark price of WTI crude oil in the trading company was 72.67 US dollars per barrel, a decrease of -5.35% compared to the beginning of this month (76.78 US dollars per barrel); The benchmark price of Brent crude oil is 77.10 US dollars per barrel, a decrease of -4.02% compared to the beginning of this month (80.33 US dollars per barrel).

 

Downstream: In terms of TDI, the overall trend of TDI this month is downward. On May 1st, the price was at 19500 yuan/ton, and on May 31st, the price rose to 16200 yuan/ton. During the month, it decreased by 3300 yuan/ton, a decrease of 16.92%. This month, the domestic TDI market is operating in a weak state, with weak downstream demand and average enthusiasm for buying in the market. There are fewer new orders traded on the market, and the supply side production capacity has increased. The trade market has a bearish mentality, and the trading atmosphere on the market is cold and there is a game between supply and demand.

 

POLYVINYL ALCOHOL

Downstream, domestic PX prices have shown a downward trend this month. On May 1st, the benchmark price of PX was 9000 yuan/ton. On May 31st, the price dropped to 8300 yuan/ton, a decrease of 7.78%. In May, PX supply slightly increased, and the domestic PX operating rate was over 70%. However, during the maintenance of some PX devices, the domestic PX price trend declined due to the increase in supply.

In terms of gasoline, gasoline prices have fallen and risen this month. On May 1st, the benchmark price of gasoline was 8648.6 yuan/ton, and on May 31st, it was 8428.2 yuan/ton, a decrease of 220.4 yuan/ton or 2.55% compared to the beginning of the month. The domestic refined oil market still lacks demand support, the market trading atmosphere is light, and the sales pressure of main units at the end of the month is high, resulting in a downward pressure on domestic gasoline prices.

 

3、 Future Market Forecast

 

In terms of crude oil, the OPEC+alliance will hold a meeting in Vienna on June 4th to decide on production policies; As the weather warms up, gasoline demand is improving, but downstream demand for fine chemicals is weak, providing limited price support, with gasoline primarily in demand; The current US economy is better than expected and the risk of debt default has decreased, leading to an increase in short-term market risk appetite; Due to the impact of fundamentals, it is expected that the price of toluene will be relatively weak next month. Pay attention to the trend of crude oil and gasoline, the dynamics of toluene units, and the impact of downstream demand on prices.

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