According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the price of styrene in Shandong was 8000 yuan/ton on January 1st, and 7163.33 yuan/ton on June 30th, a decrease of 10.46%. The highest point of the price market appeared on April 6th at around 8658.33 yuan/ton, and the price fell 17.27% from the lowest point on June 30th.

styrene

The styrene market price fluctuated and decreased in the first half of 2023. From the above figure, it can be seen that in the first half of the year, only January saw an increase in styrene, while February June saw a decline, with the decline far exceeding the increase. The reason for the increase in January is that before the Spring Festival, pre holiday stocking combined with export pickup. Although the downstream is in demand, the purchasing intention is good, which has some support for the market. There may be a slight decrease in port inventory, which is beneficial for the styrene market. The main reasons for the decline from February to June are firstly due to the weak macroeconomic and chemical industry chain, and secondly, the overall downward trend of crude oil. The downstream demand for styrene has a strong sustainability and weak spot demand, making it difficult for costs and demand to support styrene. The decline in styrene market is greater than the increase.

In terms of raw materials, the pure benzene market rose first and then fell in the first half of 2023. The price in January was 6532 yuan/ton, and at the end of the month, it was 6184 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5.03%. The highest point was 7465 yuan/ton on April 19th. The pure benzene market is mainly affected by international oil prices. In the first half of the year, the overall supply of pure benzene in the market was sufficient, and East China ports are expected to continue to accumulate inventory. The overall market is showing a downward trend.

In terms of downstream, the three major downstream markets of styrene showed an overall downward trend in the first half of the year. The decline in APS and EPS reached 10%. The continuous weakness of terminal demand in the three downstream markets has led to poor shipment volume, significant inventory pressure, and a continuous decline in the market, which cannot provide support for the styrene market.

The styrene plant that will be put into operation in the second half of 2023 may be put into operation in the third quarter, and the styrene production capacity will continue to expand. However, the current downstream market demand continues to be weak, and the ability to digest inventory may not be as expected. It is expected that the styrene market will mainly fluctuate and decline in the second half of 2023.

According to data monitoring by Business Society, as of June 30, 2023, the reference average price of 30% grade phosphate ore in China was around 942 yuan/ton. Compared with January 1, 2023 (the reference price of phosphate ore was 1056 yuan/ton), the price was reduced by 114 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10.80%.

From the data monitoring chart of the Business Society, it can be seen that in the first half of 2023, the overall market situation of mid to high-end grade phosphorus ore in China showed a trend of first rising and then falling. In the first quarter of 2023, the domestic phosphorus ore market as a whole steadily rose. In January, around the Spring Festival, the phosphorus ore market remained stable and organized, with many mining companies suspending production and the news on the market remained calm. In February, after returning from the Spring Festival, the overall supply of phosphate rock continued to be tight, supporting a slight upward trend in the market trend, with some mining enterprises in some regions mainly receiving pre orders. In March, the spring planting season has arrived, and the downstream market demand for phosphate ore terminals is good. From bottom to top, the support for phosphate ore market has been strengthened, and the overall phosphate ore market continues to move towards the high-end. In the first quarter, the 30% grade phosphate rock increased by 5.87%.

In the second quarter of 2023, the domestic mid to high-end grade phosphate ore market as a whole began a weak decline. Affected by the decline in downstream product prices of phosphorus ore, downstream factories have started to operate, demand for phosphorus ore has weakened, and some regions have had poor pre orders. The trading atmosphere in phosphorus ore fields is light, and the mentality of operators is average. Downstream demand for raw materials has weakened, and the support for phosphorus ore from bottom to top has gradually loosened. Since early April, the focus of the phosphorus ore market has been continuously moving downwards, and the supply-demand contradiction has gradually emerged. As of June 30, The domestic market price for 30% grade phosphate ore is based on 850-1000 yuan/ton. The specific price may vary depending on factors such as the original ore specifications, powder to lump ratio, and transportation conditions. The specific details need to be negotiated through actual orders.

Prediction and Analysis of the Future Market Trend of Phosphate Rock

At present, the new orders in the phosphate ore market are generally traded, and downstream purchases are mainly based on demand. The phosphate ore industry is cautious, and the phosphate ore data analyst from the business society believes that in the short term, the domestic phosphate ore market is mainly subject to narrow adjustment and operation, and the specific trend still needs to pay more attention to changes in supply and demand news.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the price of pure benzene has been in a downward trend this month, and the price fluctuation is not significant. On June 1st, the price was 6530 yuan/ton; On June 30th, the price was 6184 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5.29% compared to the beginning of the month and a decrease of 35.07% compared to the same period last year.

2、 Analysis and Review

1. Crude oil fell broadly, with a bearish cost side. 2. The Asian American arbitrage window has closed, and the domestic price of pure benzene in China is high, resulting in a high import volume of pure benzene in May. And the overall supply of pure benzene in the market is sufficient. 3. Downstream profitability is poor, styrene continues to decline, and market interest in purchasing pure benzene is average, dragging down pure benzene on the demand side.

This month, the price of Sinopec pure benzene decreased by 300 yuan/ton to 6200 yuan/ton.

Downstream aspect

3、 Future Market Forecast

Although further interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve may curb economic growth, the peak summer fuel consumption in the United States has arrived and international oil prices have risen. NYMEX crude oil futures 08 contract increased by $0.30 per barrel or 0.43% to $69.860 per barrel; ICE oil futures contract 08 rose by 0.31 US dollars per barrel or 0.42% to 74.340 US dollars per barrel. The main contract for China INE crude oil futures, 2308, rose 2.5 yuan to 538.5 yuan/barrel, and rose 6.4 yuan to 544.9 yuan/barrel in overnight trading.

On June 30th, pure benzene was traded outside: Asia was closed for the Haze Festival, with FOB Rotterdam falling by $1 to $899 per ton and FOB USG falling by 12 cents to 275 cents per gallon.

The short-term weakness of fundamentals is difficult to improve. East China ports are expected to continue to accumulate, with sufficient supply on the market. In the short term, pure benzene will continue to show a weak trend, and we will wait and see if the cost and demand sides can improve. Continue to pay attention to the trend of crude oil and external markets, as well as the impact of the dynamics of pure benzene and downstream devices, and changes in demand on the price of pure benzene.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the rare earth market price index slightly declined in June, and the domestic light and heavy rare earth market trend was divided. The light rare earth market fell, while the heavy rare earth price slightly increased. On June 29th, the rare earth index was 460 points, a decrease of 13 points from the first day, a decrease of 54.32% from the cycle’s highest point of 1007 points (2022-02-24), and an increase of 69.74% from the lowest point of 271 points on September 13th, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from December 1st, 2011 to the present).

The prices of neodymium oxide, metal neodymium, praseodymium oxide, metal praseodymium neodymium oxide, and metal praseodymium neodymium in China have declined. As of the end of the month, the price of metal praseodymium neodymium was 560000 yuan/ton, a decrease of 7.44%; The price of praseodymium neodymium oxide was 450000 yuan/ton, a decrease of 8.63% in price; The price of neodymium oxide was 477500 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5.45%; The price of neodymium metal was 602500 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5.86%; The price of metal praseodymium was 627500 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.18%; The price of praseodymium oxide was 477500 yuan/ton, a decrease of 7.28%.

In June, the domestic light rare earth market declined, and inquiries for praseodymium neodymium products in the market were relatively scarce. Transactions were mainly in demand, with some enterprises experiencing a decline in price support. In addition, after June, the demand support was insufficient, causing the light rare earth market to fluctuate and decline. At present, the price of metal praseodymium neodymium is still upside down, mainly to ensure the supply of long-term orders. Intermediaries are cautious in replenishing small quantities, and transactions are limited. Recently, both rare earth production and market inventory have decreased, with a tight supply of raw materials and limited stock in the market. Sellers are cautious in their quotations, and the transaction situation is average. Downstream procurement is mainly based on demand, and the overall trend of rare earth product prices has declined.

The domestic market of heavy rare earth dysprosium rose slightly. As of the end of the month, the price of Dysprosium(III) oxide was 2.225 million yuan/ton, up 5.70% from the beginning of the month; The price of dysprosium iron alloy is 2.095 million yuan/ton, an increase of 1.21% compared to the beginning of the month; The price of dysprosium metal was 2.71 million yuan/ton, an increase of 1.12% compared to the beginning of the month; The domestic price of terbium series is mainly fluctuating, with the domestic price of terbium oxide reaching 8.65 million yuan/ton and the price of metallic terbium reaching 10.15 million yuan/ton. The heavy rare earth market has slightly rebounded, with an increase in inquiries in June and a tightening of spot supply. Affected by a slight increase in demand, the domestic heavy rare earth market price has slightly increased. The domestic heavy rare earth market is relatively active in inquiry and quotation, with a slight increase in trading volume. However, downstream actual demand is still weak, and metal factory orders are relatively scarce. In addition, with an increase in rare earth mines from Southeast Asia, the supply of rare earth is sufficient, and the wait-and-see sentiment in the rare earth market is still heavy.

According to statistics, the production and sales of new energy vehicles completed 713000 and 717000 units respectively in May, with year-on-year growth of 53% and 60.2%, and a market share of 30.1%. From January to May, the production and sales of new energy vehicles completed 3.05 million and 2.94 million units respectively, with year-on-year growth of 45.1% and 46.8%, and a market share of 27.7%. Recently, the country has accelerated the construction of charging infrastructure to better support the entry of new energy vehicles into rural areas, which is conducive to unleashing the consumption potential of rural areas, increasing the sales of new energy vehicles, and increasing the production and sales of new energy vehicles, which is beneficial for the domestic prices of medium and heavy rare earths.

After years of governance, the domestic rare earth industry has gradually formed a supply pattern with large groups as the main body and relatively concentrated raw materials. With the continuous development of the foreign rare earth industry, China’s share of rare earth production has decreased from 90% to 70%. According to statistics, China’s rare earth export data in May was 4576 tons; From January to May 2023, a total of 20987.2 tons of rare earth commodities were exported, a year-on-year decrease of 4.4%. China’s rare earth commodity exports decreased, which to some extent restricted the domestic rare earth market prices.

Future forecast: In the near future, the supply of rare earth production enterprises is normal, with little change in downstream demand. It is expected that the rare earth market prices will slightly decrease in the short term, and there will be a lack of primary and renewable supply sources in the medium to long term. Dysprosium and terbium oxides will also face shortages. In addition, driven by emerging and traditional demands such as energy-saving motors, industrial machinery, wind power, variable frequency air conditioning, and consumer electronics, the global demand for rare earth permanent magnets is expected to continue to grow.