According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, in November 2023, the domestic lead ingot market experienced a downward trend after fluctuations. The average price in the domestic market was 16330 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month, 16065 yuan/ton at the end of the month, a monthly decrease of 1.62%.

On November 28th, the lead commodity index was 97.98, a decrease of 0.67 points from yesterday, a decrease of 26.89% from the highest point in the cycle of 134.01 points (2016-11-29), and an increase of 31.29% from the lowest point of 74.63 points on March 19th, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to 2011-09-01 present).

On November 28th, the base metal index was 1139 points, a decrease of 8 points from yesterday, a decrease of 29.52% from the highest point in the cycle of 1616 points (2022-03-09), and an increase of 77.41% from the lowest point of 642 points on November 24th, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to 2011-12-01 present).

K-bar chart of commodity prices, using the concept of price trend K-line, reflects the weekly or monthly price fluctuations in the form of a bar chart. Investors can buy and sell based on the changes in the K-bar chart. Red indicates an increase; Green indicates a decline; The height of the K-bar represents the range of fluctuations. After the decline in lead prices in January 2023, the trend in the first half of the year was somewhat volatile. June August was the peak season of the season, and it continued to decline after September. The weekly trend is mixed.

In November 2023, the lead ingot market showed a volatile trend in the first half of the year, while the overall trend in the second half was weak. At the beginning of the month, the Federal Reserve announced further interest rate hikes, with an overall hawkish performance. The US dollar was boosted and the metal market was generally under pressure. Shanghai lead followed suit and the overall trend fluctuated between 16415-16695 yuan/ton. In the middle of the week, the proportion of warehouse orders cancelled by London Lead in the overseas market increased rapidly last week, which boosted market sentiment. Driven by funds, London Lead rose, and domestic Shanghai Lead followed suit. Under the disturbance of funds, the Shanghai Lead market brought a wave of upward momentum. As the bulls left the market, the overall lead price fell from a high level, and LME lead ingot inventories continued to rise, putting pressure on lead prices.

From the perspective of supply and demand, the market has not changed much recently, and the operating rate of primary lead has slightly rebounded, leading to an increase in market supply expectations. However, the prices of waste batteries in the field of recycled lead are still high, which affects the enthusiasm of recycled lead enterprises to recycle. Under cost pressure, the operating rate of recycled lead enterprises has significantly declined. At present, the price of recycling used batteries has risen to a nearly 5-year high, and it is difficult to fall back in the future. Therefore, the market expects that the supply of recycled lead in the near future will be tight and difficult to change. In terms of demand, downstream industries have shown a more obvious performance during the off-season, with weak demand for automotive batteries and electric bicycle batteries, resulting in overall weak market demand. After entering the off-season, the overall trading in the spot market is relatively light, with long-term orders being the main focus and relatively few scattered orders in the market. Overall, the trend of lead prices has returned to its fundamental influence, and it is expected that the industry will continue to maintain a weak trend in the future under the influence of the traditional seasonal off-season.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the 1 # tin ingot market in East China fluctuated and declined this week (11.17-11.24). The average market price last weekend was 212810 yuan/ton, and this weekend it was 201610 yuan/ton, a weekly decrease of 5.26%.

K-bar chart of commodity prices, using the concept of price trend K-line, reflects the weekly or monthly price fluctuations in the form of a bar chart. Investors can buy and sell based on the changes in the K-bar chart. Red indicates an increase; Green indicates a decline; The height of the K-bar represents the range of fluctuations. From the monthly K-bar chart, it can be seen that after November 2022, tin prices have been continuously rising for three months due to macroeconomic factors. Since February 2023, prices have fallen by 11.35% in a single month, and the trend of tin prices has fluctuated narrowly in the past three months. From the weekly K-bar chart, it can be seen that the tin ingot market has seen more declines and less gains in recent times.

The futures market saw a broad decline in Shanghai tin prices this week, and the sentiment in the spot market was low. However, as market prices fell, downstream entry enthusiasm increased, and some low-priced transactions were made during the week. Smelters have been affected by the recent market downturn, and some enterprises have a strong reluctance to sell, resulting in lower quotations. From the perspective of supply and demand, the overall operating rate of smelters is relatively stable, while with the increase of imported tin ingot sources, the overall supply of domestic tin ingots is relatively sufficient. In terms of demand, downstream performance is still weak, and the overall expectation for solder demand is still weak. Most consumer terminals maintain a wait-and-see attitude, actively reducing inventory and adhering to the principle of replenishing raw materials according to demand. Overall, in the future market, there is sufficient supply of tin ingots and weak downstream demand. Domestic inventory is generally at a high level, and tin prices are under pressure overall. It is expected that the tin ingot market will continue to operate steadily with a weak trend in the future. In the near future, we will focus on the impact of macroeconomic fluctuations on the market.

On November 26th, the non-ferrous index was at 1090 points, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 29.13% from the highest point in the cycle of 1538 points (2021-10-18), and an increase of 79.57% from the lowest point of 607 points on November 24th, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to 2011-12-01 present).

According to the price monitoring of Business Society, in the 47th week of 2023 (11.20-11.24), there were a total of 6 commodities in the non-ferrous sector that showed a month on month increase in commodity prices. The top 3 commodities with the highest increase were dysprosium oxide (4.17%), dysprosium metal (3.06%), and dysprosium ferroalloy (3.04%). There are a total of 13 products that have experienced a month on month decline, with nickel (-4.28%), cobalt (-3.87%), and tin (-3.49%) being the top three products with the largest decline. The average increase and decrease this week is -0.84%.

1、 Trend analysis

This week, copper prices rose first and then fell, with narrow fluctuations. As of this weekend, the spot copper quotation is 68661.67 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.04% from the beginning of the week’s 68635 yuan/ton and a year-on-year increase of 4.88%.

According to the weekly chart of ups and downs by Business Society, in the past three months, copper prices have fallen by 5% and risen by 6%. Recently, copper prices have rebounded slightly.

LME copper inventories have fluctuated at high levels and are still at a relatively high level, with a slight decline.

Macroscopically, the pace of the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy still has a significant impact on the trend of copper prices. The US dollar index and US bond yields showed signs of peaking and falling in early November, supporting the momentum behind the high level operation of the US dollar index and US bond yields – the core CPI also showed a sustained weakening trend. The excess savings of current US residents are about to be depleted in the fourth quarter, and the tightening financial environment will gradually affect the judgment of residents on their balance sheets, showing signs of weakening the suppression of copper prices.

Supply side: On the mining side, the demand for smelters has increased month on month, with fewer maintenance companies, and most refineries are in the process of increasing production. Marginal increase in demand for copper concentrate in the next 1-2 months. On the supply side, due to the strike by workers in late October, some of the copper produced by Canon and Lomo in Congo is at risk of being stranded. In terms of refined copper, the domestic refined copper production in September was 1.012 million tons. Currently, the production rate of smelters is high, and manufacturers have a strong willingness to maintain full production. It is expected that the capacity utilization rate will remain high by the end of the year, and the production will continue to increase. Major global copper mines are facing production disruptions, exacerbating supply concerns and providing support for prices.

On the demand side: Last week, the operating rate of precision copper rods was 74.02%, a decrease of 3.81 percentage points compared to the previous week; The operating rate of recycled copper poles is 45.66%, with a weekly increase of 2.78 percentage points. With the arrival of the off-season for consumption, downstream consumption tends to be weak. The completion of domestic power grid investment has rebounded.

In summary, terminal demand was supported by the resilience of cable and new energy consumption at the end of the year, and overall performance remained stable, making up for some of the drag brought by off-season consumption. The appreciation of the Chinese yuan against the US dollar has improved the outlook for metal demand, and some funds have gone long before China’s new round of real estate stimulus measures, which has also supported copper prices. Adequate domestic copper supply suppresses copper prices. It is expected that copper will continue to fluctuate in the short term.

Recent price trends of urea

According to the Commodity Analysis System of the Business Society, the domestic urea market price has slightly increased this week, with urea prices rising from 2551.67 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 2630.00 yuan/ton at the weekend, an increase of 3.07%, and a year-on-year decrease of 1.13% over the weekend. On November 20th, the urea commodity index was 120.93, a decrease of 1.4 points from yesterday, a decrease of 20.61% from the cycle’s highest point of 152.33 points (2022-05-15), and an increase of 117.50% from the lowest point of 55.60 points on August 17th, 2016. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1st, 2011 to the present)

Cost support is good, downstream demand is average, and urea supply is sufficient

From the supply side perspective, the mainstream price of urea in China has slightly increased this week.

From the data of the upstream and downstream industry chains, it can be seen that the urea upstream market has slightly increased this week: the price of liquefied natural gas has significantly increased, from 4840.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 5040.00 yuan/ton at the weekend, an increase of 4.13%, and the weekend price has increased by 13.87% year-on-year. The price of anthracite has stabilized at a low level, with the price of Yangquan anthracite (washing medium block) reaching 1110 yuan/ton this week; The price of liquid ammonia has slightly increased, rising from 4216.67 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 4333.33 yuan/ton at the weekend, an increase of 2.77%. The weekend price has decreased by 5.25% year-on-year. Upstream raw material prices have slightly increased, providing good support for urea prices.

From a demand perspective: Agricultural demand has weakened, while industrial demand is average. Agriculture has entered the off-season. Composite fertilizer, board, and melamine enterprises generally start construction, and mainly purchase on demand. The price of melamine downstream of urea has temporarily stabilized this week, at 7325.00 yuan/ton. From a supply perspective, some enterprises have completed maintenance, and daily urea production has further increased, resulting in sufficient supply.

Small fluctuation and decline in the future market

In late November, the domestic urea market may experience a slight fluctuation and increase. Business Society urea analysts believe that the upstream market of urea has slightly increased, and urea costs are well supported. Downstream industrial demand is average, while agricultural demand is weakening. The daily production of urea is around 180000 tons, and the supply is good. In the future, urea may fluctuate and rise in a narrow range.

Overview of Ethylene Oxide Prices in November

In November, the price of ethylene oxide decreased. According to data from Business News Agency, as of November 20th, the average market price of ethylene oxide in China was 6400 yuan/ton; From a regional perspective, the epoxy ethane market in East China is priced at 6400 yuan/ton externally; The listed price of ethylene oxide in the South China market is 6500 yuan/ton; The listed price of epoxy ethane in North China is 6400-6500 yuan/ton; The listed price of ethylene oxide in the central China region is 6600 yuan/ton.

Overview of ethylene oxide industry chain

The main downstream polycarboxylate water reducing agent monomer is affected by poor terminal demand, and recent weak demand has weakened its support for the price of ethylene oxide.

Raw material end

The price of raw material ethylene has started to show a weak market consolidation, and the cost support for ethylene oxide is average. On November 17th, the estimated CFR China price for ethylene in the port was between 860-880 US dollars per ton.

Ethylene oxide prices may be weakly stable in November

The short-term decline in crude oil, weak stability in ethylene prices, and weak cost side of ethylene oxide; The weak demand for downstream products has led to a recent decline in the price of ethylene oxide. However, as profits expand towards negative values, there is an expectation of a decrease in the operating rate of ethylene oxide, and the downward space gradually narrows. It is expected that the price of ethylene oxide will remain weak and stable in the short term.

According to monitoring data from Business Society, as of November 17, 2023, the factory price of domestically produced industrial grade dimethyl carbonate was set at 4200 yuan/ton. Compared with November 12 (the reference price of dimethyl carbonate was 4100 yuan/ton), the price increased by 100 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.44%.

From the data monitoring chart of the Business Society, it can be seen that this week, the overall domestic dimethyl carbonate market showed a steady upward trend. This is also the first increase in the dimethyl carbonate market in nearly a month.

The main factor supporting the rise of dimethyl carbonate market comes from the supply side. There are new maintenance devices added in the dimethyl carbonate field, and it is rumored that leading enterprises may have maintenance plans for 300000 tons of devices. The expected supply of dimethyl carbonate will decrease, and the supply pressure will be reduced. This will support dimethyl carbonate factories and suppliers to actively raise prices, with an increase of about 100 yuan/ton. As of November 17th, the domestic market price of dimethyl carbonate is around 4000-4300 yuan/ton, with higher prices around 4400-4500 yuan/ton.

Analysis of Future Market Trends

Currently, the overall performance of downstream demand for dimethyl carbonate is poor, with limited support from the demand side for dimethyl carbonate, and the overall operating rate of downstream factories is average. In terms of supply, currently, the preliminary maintenance equipment is still in the process of parking. In the short term, the supply side of dimethyl carbonate will still provide some support to the market. The dimethyl carbonate data analyst at the Business Society believes that in the short term, the domestic dimethyl carbonate market will mostly show fluctuating operation in the range, and more attention should be paid to the changes in supply and demand information.

According to the monitoring of the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the East China region’s 1 # tin ingot market fluctuated and rose this week (11.03-11.10). The average market price last weekend was 207260 yuan/ton, and this weekend it was 210860 yuan/ton, a weekly increase of 1.74%.

The K-bar chart of commodity prices uses the concept of a price trend K-line to reflect weekly or monthly price fluctuations in the form of a bar chart. Investors can buy and sell investments based on the changes in the K-bar chart. Red indicates an increase; Green indicates a decline; The height of the K-bar represents the range of fluctuations. From the monthly K-bar chart, it can be seen that after November 2022, tin prices have risen continuously for three months due to macroeconomic factors. Since February 2023, the price has dropped by 11.35% per month, and the trend of tin prices has fluctuated narrowly in the past three months. From the weekly K-bar chart, it can be seen that the recent trend of the tin ingot market is generally weak.

In terms of the futures market, Shanghai and Wuxi saw a surge and upward trend this week. In terms of supply and demand, the overall operating rate of the smelting plant is stable at a high level, and the recent changes in operating rate are limited. Import sources have increased compared to the previous period, and the overall supply of tin ingots is relatively loose. In terms of demand, the tin ingot market has been declining for six consecutive weeks, and the intention to purchase downstream on dips has resumed. We are actively entering the market for procurement. Recently, the overall inventory of tin ingots has declined, and market transactions support a slight rebound in tin prices within the next week. However, there has been no significant improvement in terminal demand expectations, and the tin ingot market is still under pressure.

On November 12th, the base metal index stood at 1186 points, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 26.61% from the cycle’s highest point of 1616 points (2022-03-09), and an increase of 84.74% from the lowest point of 642 points on November 24th, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from December 1st, 2011 to the present).

According to the price monitoring of the Business Society, there were three commodities in the non-ferrous sector that rose month on month in the 45th week of 2023 (11.6-11.10) commodity price rise and fall list, with tin (1.49%), zinc (0.65%), and magnesium (0.16%) ranking among the top three commodities. There are a total of 16 products that have decreased compared to the previous month, with the top 3 products falling respectively being dysprosium oxide (-2.47%), dysprosium iron alloy (-1.92%), and praseodymium oxide (-1.90%). This week’s average increase or decrease was -0.79%.

This week (11.1=6-11.10), the domestic dimethyl ether market maintained stable operation. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the average price of dimethyl ether in the Henan market on November 6th was 3650 yuan/ton, and on November 10th it was 3650 yuan/ton. There was no increase or decrease during the cycle, and it decreased by 21% compared to the same period last year.

As of November 10th, the mainstream prices of dimethyl ether in various regions of China are as follows:

Region/ Mainstream prices

Shandong region/ 3850 yuan/ton

Hebei region/ 3800 yuan/ton

Henan region/ 3650 yuan/ton

This week, the overall stability of the domestic dimethyl ether market was maintained, with mainstream prices in the Henan market ranging from 3650 to 3700 yuan/ton. The price of raw material methanol fluctuated and increased this week, but the boost to the dimethyl ether market was limited. The on-site supply has tightened, and some factories have reduced their load operations. However, the enthusiasm for downstream entry into the market is not high, with a focus on just demand and a weak market mentality, resulting in weak production and sales.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the price of raw material methanol fluctuated and increased this week, rising from 2481 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 2514 yuan/ton at the end of the week, an increase of 1.19%. The cost support for dimethyl ether has strengthened.

Overall, with downstream demand continuing to be weak, it is expected that dimethyl ether will continue to operate in a weak manner in the short term.

Price trend

Since November, the lithium hydroxide market has declined. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of November 9th, the average price of industrial grade lithium hydroxide enterprises in China was 198000.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.98% compared to the beginning of the month (202000.00 yuan/ton) and a decrease of 65.86% compared to the same period last year.

Entering November, the price of lithium hydroxide in the market has steadily declined, with no significant improvement in downstream demand, weak fundamentals, and a calm trading atmosphere in the market.

Cost side impact:

According to the analysis system chart of the commodity market of the Business Society, the industrial grade lithium carbonate market has shown a downward trend since November, with a strong cautious wait-and-see sentiment in the market and insufficient support for the lithium hydroxide market. The recent weak and stable prices of upstream spodumene concentrate have limited support for the lithium hydroxide market.

Supply and demand impact:

The recent market transactions are mainly based on long-term orders, with weak downstream demand for high nickel materials. Inquiry procurement is cautious and rigid, and supply and demand support for lithium hydroxide market is weak. The market trading atmosphere is light.

Business Society Lithium Hydroxide Analyst believes that in the short term, the upstream lithium carbonate price is weak, and the price of spodumene concentrate is temporarily stable. There is insufficient support for the positive performance of the lithium hydroxide market, and downstream inquiry procurement enthusiasm is not high. It is expected that in the short term, the domestic lithium hydroxide market may be weak, and more attention should be paid to market news guidance.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, from October 30th to November 6th, the average market price of cyclohexanone in China dropped from 9487 yuan/ton to 9450 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 0.40% during the cycle. The price fell 4.18% month on month and 2.38% year-on-year. The raw material pure benzene is subject to weak fluctuations, stable cost support, stable spot supply of cyclohexanone, and downstream follow-up on demand, resulting in a stable operation of the domestic cyclohexanone market.

On the cost side, raw material pure benzene: The domestic pure benzene market has surged and fallen, with slight inventory accumulation at East China ports. Crude oil futures have fluctuated and declined during the week, resulting in insufficient support for pure benzene. In the cost composition of the traditional cyclohexanone process route, pure benzene accounts for 53%. The market trend of pure benzene directly affects the price of cyclohexanone, and the short-term cost of cyclohexanone is affected by bearish factors.

On the supply side, according to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the domestic production capacity of cyclohexanone is about 6.55 million tons, and the current operating load is around 60%, which is at a relatively low level. The main production enterprises have limited product supply due to device maintenance. The short-term supply of cyclohexanone is influenced by positive factors.

On the demand side, cyclohexanone units are mainly equipped with downstream caprolactam production, and caprolactam is one of the main downstream sources of cyclohexanone. The market for caprolactam has slightly improved. There is still support in some parts of the cost fluctuation consolidation, while in terms of supply, Nanjing Dongfang Parking Maintenance and Cangzhou Xuyang short-term load reduction have reduced supply, while the seller’s price intention has increased. The demand for cyclohexanone is temporarily positive.

According to future market forecasts, the raw material pure benzene is weakly sorted and the cost side is relatively stable. The spot supply and demand of cyclohexanone are balanced, and cyclohexanone analysts from Business Society predict that the domestic cyclohexanone market will operate weakly in the short term.