1、 Price trend

According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, the reference average price of 55% powdered ammonium on January 1st was 3370 yuan/ton. On January 30th, the reference average price of 55% powdered ammonium was 3143 yuan/ton. This month, the market price of ammonium phosphate decreased by 6.73%.

According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, the reference average price of 64% diammonium on January 1st was 4040 yuan/ton, and on January 30th, the reference average price of 64% diammonium was 3966 yuan/ton. The market price of diammonium phosphate fell by 1.82% this month.

2、 Market analysis

The market price of ammonium phosphate is weak and has fallen this month. The price of raw sulfur has decreased this month, weakening cost support. The operating rate of ammonium phosphate enterprises has declined, and downstream compound fertilizer enterprises are slow to purchase, resulting in low purchasing enthusiasm. At present, the follow-up of new orders in the market is weak, and the trading atmosphere is weak, with a decline in the focus of ammonium phosphate transactions. As of January 30th, the factory price of 55 powder ammonium in Hubei region is around 3050-3150 yuan/ton, and the factory price of 55 powder ammonium in Henan region is around 3100 yuan/ton, with actual negotiations being the main focus. The market price of 64% diammonium in Shandong region is around 3920-4050 yuan/ton, and the market price of 57% diammonium is around 3620-3650 yuan/ton. The actual transaction is negotiable.

Market for raw material phosphate rock. After the domestic phosphate ore market rose this month, it remained stable in operation. In early January, some mining companies in China began to implement new ore prices. Guizhou, Sichuan, and Guangxi regions have raised the prices of medium to high-grade phosphate ore by about 20-50 yuan/ton. Currently, the supply of phosphate ore in the field is still tight, and downstream demand for phosphate ore is mainly for rigid procurement. As of January 30th, the reference price for domestic phosphate ore market is around 1056 yuan/ton.

Market for raw sulfur. In the first half of January, sulfur prices in East China experienced a broad decline. The sulfur unit is operating normally, with sufficient market supply of goods, and downstream enthusiasm for sulfur procurement has weakened. The weak market trading, poor shipments from sulfur refineries, and continuous decline in port prices have had a negative impact on the spot market. To stimulate shipments, the refinery’s quotation has been significantly reduced. The sulfur market adjusted narrowly in the second half of January.

3、 Future Market Forecast

Business Society’s ammonium phosphate analyst believes that the price trend of ammonium phosphate has been weak and declining recently. As the Spring Festival holiday approaches, market demand weakens and new orders follow up less. At present, with no favorable factors in the market, it is expected that the short-term ammonium phosphate market will continue to operate weakly.

1、 Price trend

According to monitoring of commodity data, the price of yellow phosphorus in the market rose in January. On January 1st, the average price of yellow phosphorus was 22962.67 yuan/ton, and on January 29th, it was 23929.33 yuan/ton. The monthly price has increased by 4.21%.

2、 Market analysis

The price of yellow phosphorus in the market rose in January, and the overall trading situation in the yellow phosphorus market is still acceptable. In the first ten days, the downstream market situation was average, and traders and downstream buyers had average enthusiasm for purchasing. Downstream procurement was more cautious and more wait-and-see. In the middle of the year, the yellow phosphorus market was on the rise, and the overall market trading situation was relatively active. Downstream stocking was active towards the end of the year. In the latter half of the year, the price of yellow phosphorus in the market remained relatively stable, with manufacturers mainly placing early orders and completing the year-end stocking. The downstream market just needed a small amount of replenishment. As of now, the market quotation in Sichuan region is mostly around 24000 yuan/ton, and the actual transaction is negotiable.

In terms of phosphate ore, according to data monitoring by Business Society, as of January 29, 2023, the reference average price of 30% grade phosphate ore in China was around 1056 yuan/ton. Compared with January 1, 2023 (reference price of 1034 yuan/ton for phosphate ore), the price increased by 22 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.13%. The trading atmosphere in the domestic phosphate ore market is mild, and the operators have a good mentality. Some downstream companies will stock up before the new year and purchase according to quantity. According to the phosphorus ore data analyst of Business Society, in the short term, the domestic phosphorus ore market prices will mainly continue to maintain a stable trend, and the specific trend needs to pay more attention to the impact of factors such as demand and downstream shipments.

In terms of coke, according to the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the market price of coke fell in January 2023. The average price of coke on January 1 was 2430 yuan/ton, and on January 29 it was 2226.67 yuan/ton. The price for the month decreased by 8.37%. In terms of demand, the finished product market has entered a seasonal off-season, and with the end of winter storage, the demand for steel mills to replenish inventory is low, maintaining a rigid demand for replenishing inventory. At present, the overall market atmosphere is weak, with loose supply of coke and weak downstream demand. It is expected that the overall market will operate weakly.

In terms of phosphoric acid, according to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, the reference price of phosphoric acid on January 1st was 6580 yuan/ton, and the average price on January 29th was 6430 yuan/ton. The price for the month decreased by 2.28%. The phosphoric acid analyst from Business Society believes that the market for raw material yellow phosphorus has been strong recently, and there is support for the cost of phosphoric acid. As the Spring Festival holiday approaches, downstream demand users are actively purchasing, but overall market demand remains weak.

3、 Future Market Forecast

The yellow phosphorus analyst from the Chemical Branch of Business Society believes that the market price of yellow phosphorus rose in January. At present, the market trading is average, and the year-end stocking is basically completed. The downstream market just needs a small amount of replenishment. Upstream phosphate ore prices have increased, coke prices have fallen, and downstream phosphate markets are weak. Overall, it is expected that the market price of yellow phosphorus will remain stable and operate in the short term, with actual transactions being discussed on a single basis.

Price trend

This week, the domestic POM market has remained stable with minor fluctuations, and spot prices have mostly remained stable. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of January 26th, the mixed price of domestic POM was 13025 yuan/ton, a decrease of -0.19% from the price level at the beginning of the month.

Cause analysis

In terms of raw materials:

According to the analysis system chart of the commodity market in Shengyishe, the price of formaldehyde in the Shandong region rose horizontally this week, with the increase concentrated in the first half of the week. Boosted by the rise in raw material methanol prices in the early stage, formaldehyde followed the upstream trend. But as the Spring Festival approaches, downstream sheet metal factories are taking more vacations, making it difficult to release demand. In the second half of the week, prices have flattened, and overall support for POM costs is strong.

In terms of supply:

The overall operating rate of domestic POM enterprises continued to rebound this week. The industry equipment load is approximately 88%. There are relatively few maintenance arrangements in the future, and it is expected that POM production will remain at a high level. Most enterprises have relatively low inventory levels and a strong willingness to support the market. The supply side still has sufficient support for POM spot goods.

In terms of demand:

This week, downstream POM enterprises in China have had a poor level of production, with companies mainly digesting inventory. On exchange trading was weak, and POM consumption continued to be weak. The operator needs to follow up with a small amount of urgent needs, operates cautiously, and resists high priced sources of goods. The pre holiday stocking operations have been gradually completed, and overall, the demand side’s support for POM spot prices is weak.

Future Market Forecast

The POM market has been stagnant this week. The operating rate of domestic polymerization plants has increased narrowly, and the inventory position of enterprises is low, resulting in moderate pressure on the supply side. Manufacturers have stabilized market confidence through market support operations, but the enthusiasm of downstream buyers is poor, and some merchants are under high shipping pressure, resulting in a hidden decrease in orders. Terminal enterprises are operating at a low level, and the number of enterprises taking holidays before holidays continues to increase. The overall load is decreasing, and purchasing operations are cautious. The supply and demand game on the market is expected to continue high consolidation in the POM market in the near future.

The price of aluminum fluoride has dropped this week

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of January 22, the domestic quotation for aluminum fluoride was 10350 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.66% from the price of aluminum fluoride on January 15, which was 10525 yuan/ton. Downstream procurement has decreased, the demand for aluminum fluoride has decreased, and the downward pressure on aluminum fluoride has increased. The price of aluminum fluoride has fluctuated and fallen.

Reduced raw material costs

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of January 22, the price of fluorite was 3356.25 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.19% compared to the price of 3431.25 yuan/ton on January 15. The supply of fluorite is sufficient, inventory is low, downstream demand is sluggish, and the fluorite market is declining. The prices of raw materials have fallen, and the cost of aluminum fluoride raw materials has decreased.

Reduced procurement by electrolytic aluminum manufacturers

The cost of electrolytic aluminum continues to rise, the profits of electrolytic aluminum enterprises have decreased, and the willingness of enterprises to start production has decreased. In addition, as the end of the year approaches, some electrolytic aluminum manufacturers are parking for holidays, resulting in a decrease in electrolytic aluminum production. As a result, electrolytic aluminum manufacturers have reduced their purchases of aluminum fluoride, leading to a decrease in demand for aluminum fluoride.

Market Overview and Forecast

Business Society’s aluminum fluoride industry analyst believes that the production of electrolytic aluminum manufacturers has decreased, downstream raw material aluminum fluoride procurement has decreased, and demand for aluminum fluoride has decreased. In the future, the cost of aluminum fluoride will decrease, and the demand will decline. It is expected that the price of aluminum fluoride will fluctuate and fall in the future.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the auction price of crude benzene increased during the period from January 12 to January 19, 2024. Last week, it was 6388.75 yuan/ton, and this week it was 6626.25 yuan/ton, up 3.72%.

In terms of crude oil: International crude oil futures rose on January 18th. The settlement price of the main WTI crude oil futures contract in the United States was $73.95 per barrel, with an increase of $1.47 or 2.0%. The settlement price of the Brent crude oil futures main contract was $79.10 per barrel, an increase of $1.22 or 1.6%.

On January 17, 2024, Sinopec’s listed price for pure benzene was increased by 250 yuan/ton, with a current implementation of 7850 yuan/ton.

Other companies: Jingbo Petrochemical quoted 7750 yuan/ton, HSBC Petrochemical quoted 7600 yuan/ton, Weilian Chemical quoted 7663 yuan/ton, Xinhai Petrochemical quoted 7750 yuan/ton, and Hongrun Petrochemical quoted 7600 yuan/ton.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the price of pure benzene has slightly increased this week. On January 15th, the price of pure benzene was 7497 yuan/ton, and on Friday (January 19th), the price of pure benzene was 7850 yuan/ton, an increase of 4.94% from last week and 11.9% from the same period last year.

K-bar chart of commodity prices, using the concept of price trend K-line, reflects the weekly or monthly price fluctuations in the form of a bar chart. Investors can buy and sell based on the changes in the K-bar chart. Red indicates an increase; Green indicates a decline; The height of the K-bar represents the range of fluctuations. The weekly K-bar chart of pure benzene shows that the pure benzene market has seen more ups and downs in recent times.

In terms of the industrial chain, the crude oil market continued to rise this week, with styrene prices rising and pure benzene prices rising externally. Multiple positive factors have affected the continuous upward trend of the pure benzene market next week. Sinopec has raised the listed price of pure benzene twice to 7850 yuan/ton, with a cumulative increase of 400 yuan/ton. Driven by the pure benzene market, hydrogenated benzene enterprises have raised their ex factory prices to 7700-7800 yuan/ton this week, and the current market atmosphere is relatively strong.

After two rounds of price cuts in the supply side of the coke market, coking companies are currently experiencing widespread losses, with some companies voluntarily limiting production. This week, the operating rate has significantly declined, and the supply of crude benzene has tightened compared to the previous period. In terms of demand, the recent increase in pure benzene has driven the market for hydrogenated benzene to heat up, and production enterprises have resumed work. The operating rate has increased compared to the previous period, and the demand for crude benzene is stable with some benefits. As the Spring Festival approaches, enterprises generally have stocking demand and are actively entering the market. Overall, demand support is still acceptable. Overall, the trend of crude oil is somewhat volatile, and currently there is limited guidance for the market. At present, the release of stocking demand has driven up the market atmosphere, and it is expected that there will be some upward space in the crude benzene market in the short term.

Recently (1.8-1.15), the price of butyl acrylate has slightly decreased. According to data from Business Society, as of January 15th, the average price of butyl acrylate in East China was 9580 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.62% from last Monday. The prices in various regions are as follows: the reference price in the East China market is 10000 yuan/ton; The reference price for the North China market is 10100 yuan/ton, while the reference price for the South China market is 10200 yuan/ton;

The price of n-butanol, the main raw material of butyl acrylate, has once again risen. Supported by high costs, although the price of butyl acrylate has fluctuated slightly, it remains stable overall.

Business Society’s butyl acrylate analyst said that although the butyl acrylate market is related to raw material prices, the overall trading atmosphere in the downstream market is weak. As the end of the year approaches, pre holiday stocking has not yet begun. Under the influence of off-season demand, the overall trading market performance is mediocre, with factories mainly purchasing for essential needs. From the perspective of profitability, high costs create resistance, and the profitability of butyl acrylate is weak, and it is still operating in a loss making area in the near future.

Zinc prices have fluctuated and fallen this week

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of January 15th, the zinc price was 21240 yuan/ton, a decrease of 071% compared to January 8th, when the zinc price was 21392 yuan/ton; Compared to January 1st, the zinc price of 21588 yuan/ton decreased by 1.61%. Geophysical risks have intensified, expectations of interest rate cuts in the United States have weakened, and the zinc market continues to be weak. Zinc prices have fluctuated and fallen this week.

Increased geopolitical risks

Since mid December 2023, Yemeni armed militants have attacked ships and seized the important “throat” of the Red Sea. The Red Sea crisis has erupted. On the early morning of January 12, 2024 local time, Britain and the United States launched an airstrike on the armed control area of Yemen’s Husai. The Red Sea crisis is intensifying. The prices of crude oil and gold have risen together, driving the non-ferrous metal sector to slightly recover. But the chain reaction triggered by the geopolitical crisis in the Red Sea has had an impact on the global shipping market and supply chain system, exacerbating expectations of global economic weakness. The rise in zinc prices is weak.

Weakened expectations of interest rate cuts

In December, the number of non farm employment increased by 216000 people beyond expectations; The unemployment rate of 3.7% was lower than expected, and the overall CPI in December was higher than market expectations. The year-on-year growth rate of core CPI has slightly declined but exceeded expectations, and the month on month growth rate has accelerated to 0.3%. The year-on-year growth of PPI in December was 1% lower than expected, while the core PPI remained unchanged on a month on month basis, marking the smallest year-on-year growth rate since the end of 2020. The prospect of interest rate cuts remains shrouded in mist. On Monday, Vishwanath Tirupatur, Global Head of Quantitative Research at Morgan Stanley, posted that the Federal Reserve is more likely to start cutting interest rates in June than the market had previously expected in March. The recently released employment and inflation data, as well as recent speeches by the Federal Reserve, all suggest this path. The expectation of the Federal Reserve’s interest rate cut has weakened, the US dollar index has risen in the short term, the non-ferrous metal sector is bearish, and the downward pressure on zinc prices has increased.

Future Market Forecast

According to data analysts from Business Society, the Red Sea crisis has intensified concerns about economic weakness, with uncertain expectations of the Federal Reserve’s interest rate cut, a weakening US dollar index, and a bearish outlook on the non-ferrous metal market. Overall, the zinc market has sufficient supply and weak demand; Expected weak and volatile zinc prices in the future.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the average market price of domestic liquid caprolactam on January 8th was 13862 yuan/ton, and on January 12th, the average market price of domestic liquid caprolactam was 13800 yuan/ton. The price of caprolactam fell by 0.45% this week.

2、 Market analysis

The market price of caprolactam has fallen this week. The price of raw material pure benzene has slightly increased, and the cost side has remained stable with little movement. The parking device for caprolactam is gradually opening up, and the market supply is gradually increasing. Downstream market conditions have fallen, weakening willingness to purchase raw materials. As of January 12th, the settlement price for Sinopec’s high-end caprolactam this week is 14100 yuan/ton, which is a high-quality liquid product. It will be accepted and self picked up in June.

This week, the price of raw material pure benzene has slightly increased. On January 8th, the price of pure benzene was 7413 yuan/ton, and on Friday (January 12th), the price of pure benzene was 7480 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.8% compared to last week. This week, the price of Sinopec pure benzene was 7450 yuan/ton (prices in Shandong and Hebei regions were synchronized).

This week, the downstream PA6 market trend is weak, with prices mainly falling. As of January 12th, the average reference price for domestic PA6 is 14675 yuan/ton.

3、 Future Market Forecast

Business Society Caprolactam Analysts believe that the caprolactam market has been weakening recently. Although there is support on the cost side, there is insufficient support on the supply and demand side. It is expected that the price of caprolactam will be weak in the short term, and it is recommended to focus on cost and supply-demand changes.

According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, the overall domestic dimethyl carbonate market in 2023 has shown a fluctuating and declining trend. The market price of dimethyl carbonate has fluctuated from 4666 yuan/ton at the beginning of the year to a low point of 4083 yuan/ton at the end of the year. In 2023, the dimethyl carbonate market experienced a full year decline of 12.5%, with a maximum amplitude of 20.71% for the year.

From the data monitoring system of Business Society, it can be seen that in the first half of 2023, the overall performance of the domestic dimethyl carbonate market was still good, and the overall dimethyl carbonate market showed a fluctuating upward trend in the first half of the year. 1、 In February, the downstream demand for dimethyl carbonate was good, and the phased stocking in the downstream supported the upward trend of the market. On March 10th, the annual high point of dimethyl carbonate appeared, with a price reference of 5150 yuan/ton. Subsequently, demand loosened, and the market continued to decline, with an overall increase of 2.86% in the first quarter. 4、 In May, due to insufficient demand, the overall decline in the dimethyl carbonate market continued in March. In June, some domestic facilities were shut down for maintenance, and the supply side of dimethyl carbonate was tight. Supply supported the upward trend of the market, with an overall increase of 5.56% in the second quarter.

In the second half of 2023, dimethyl carbonate continued to decline, and downstream demand continued to drag down the market. The center of gravity of dimethyl carbonate continued to shift downwards. In the fourth quarter, the market price of dimethyl carbonate has hovered at the bottom, and the low-end prices on the market have also fallen below the 4000 yuan/ton mark. Dimethyl carbonate decreased by 19.41% in the second half of the year.

2023 has passed, can there be a breakthrough in the dimethyl carbonate market in 2024?

Firstly, let’s compare the market trends of dimethyl carbonate in the past two years. From the comparison chart of the market data of Shengyishe, it is clear that the overall market price of dimethyl carbonate in 2023 is lower than the market level in 2022. From the trend of the past two years, the market price of dimethyl carbonate fluctuated greatly in 2022. When the price of dimethyl carbonate reached its peak, the market price was 9933 yuan/ton. When the market price drops, the low point price is 4666 yuan/ton, with a high and low amplitude of 46.56%. Compared with 2022, the overall volatility of the dimethyl carbonate market has weakened in 2023, with the market fluctuating at a low level throughout the year and the overall focus shifting downwards in the second half of the year. Therefore, currently, the market for dimethyl carbonate is at a low level in nearly two years.

In terms of production capacity: In 2022, there was an overcapacity trend in the domestic dimethyl carbonate plant. In 2022, the domestic dimethyl carbonate production capacity was concentrated, and the overall supply of the dimethyl carbonate market increased. In 2022, the total production capacity of dimethyl carbonate in China was about 160000 tons/year, but the downstream demand side transmission and transformation were relatively slow. Entering 2023, there are still some new dimethyl carbonate units in China that have been put into operation, totaling 460000 tons. By the end of the fourth quarter, it is expected that new units will still be put into operation. Therefore, entering 2024, the overall production capacity of dimethyl carbonate is still improving. Although the increase in production capacity can optimize the transmission of the industrial chain, it will increase the supply pressure on factories and make downstream expectations more important.

In terms of technology and supply: Currently, there are three main production processes for dimethyl carbonate in China: PO ester exchange method, EO ester exchange method, and methanol oxidative carbonylation method. Among them, PO ester exchange method is most widely used in domestic production. PO ester exchange method can produce dimethyl carbonate while co producing propylene glycol. The mature production process is also conducive to factories better controlling production costs and profit distribution. In 2023, the annual operating level of dimethyl carbonate is around seven floors. Although the overall operating level is not too high, there is a certain supply pressure in the dimethyl carbonate market for most of the year. Therefore, whether the market can adjust the transmission relationship between supply and demand in a timely manner is also the key to the market trend.

In terms of demand: Since 2019, the downstream demand for dimethyl carbonate in China has quietly changed, with electrolyte solvents and polycarbonate becoming the main consumer terminals of dimethyl carbonate. In 2023, the largest downstream consumption areas of dimethyl carbonate in China are still electrolyte solvents and polycarbonate, with a combined proportion of about 85%. Rubber additives and other fields account for about 15%.

With the booming development of electric vehicles and mobile devices, it is expected that the production capacity of the electric vehicle industry will continue to increase in the future. Therefore, in 2024, the electrolyte solvent market is expected to continue to support the dimethyl carbonate market. The demand for downstream polycarbonate of dimethyl carbonate will also increase year by year. Non light and gas methods use dimethyl carbonate to produce diphenyl carbonate through ester exchange and then through condensation reaction to produce polycarbonate. The production process does not use light and gas, which is safe and pollution-free. With the improvement of environmental protection requirements in China, the use of dimethyl carbonate non light and gas methods to produce polycarbonate in the future may gradually become the mainstream production process. Therefore, in the long run, There is still a strong demand for dimethyl carbonate in the market.

Finally, the traditional market downstream of dimethyl carbonate, including coatings, adhesives, and primary developer, is expected to provide essential support for the demand for dimethyl carbonate.

In summary, the data analyst from Business Society believes that there will still be expectations for the domestic dimethyl carbonate market in 2024. Firstly, although the expansion of production capacity brings about increased production and supply pressure, the overall completeness of the industrial chain of dimethyl carbonate factories will be higher, which is more conducive to boosting market confidence. Secondly, in terms of demand, the new energy sector is gradually distinguishing the downstream of dimethyl carbonate into three sectors: electrolyte solvent, polycarbonate, and traditional downstream. In 2024, the electrolyte solvent market still has the potential for development, and in the future, the conversion of polycarbonate new processes also has the conditions for implementation. With the gradual recovery of the overall environment, the traditional market demand for dimethyl carbonate will also gradually recover. Therefore, let’s hope that the market for dimethyl carbonate will have a new blue sky in 2024.

After the holiday, the high price of cobalt has fallen back

According to the cobalt market analysis system of the Business Society, as of January 8th, the cobalt price was 220600 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.14% from the cobalt price of 220900 yuan/ton on January 1st; Compared to January 2nd, the cobalt price dropped by 0.32% to 221300 yuan/ton. After the holiday, cobalt prices did not continue their upward trend in December, and transportation in the cobalt market in the Democratic Republic of Congo resumed. However, cobalt prices slightly declined from their high levels after the year.

Weak demand side in cobalt market

Affected by factors such as severe weather and earthquakes in the north, the national consumption level is also in the recovery stage. The holiday travel rate has increased, and aviation consumption has increased compared to the previous period. The demand for cobalt in the alloy industry has increased, but the actual increase is not good. The rush to install the new energy vehicle industry chain in the fourth quarter has ended, and the first quarter is the traditional off-season. The export volume of precursor and positive electrode materials has fallen, and some battery factories have entered production reduction plans. The sentiment of raw material stocking before the Spring Festival is sluggish.

Recovery of cobalt supply in the Democratic Republic of Congo

The preliminary vote count released by the National Independent Election Commission of the Democratic Republic of Congo on December 31, 2023 shows that the current President, Zisekdi, has won the new election. With the end of the general election, transportation in the Democratic Republic of Congo gradually resumed, and the supply of cobalt in the city resumed.

Overview and Outlook

Business Society data analyst Bai Jiaxin believes that before the Spring Festival, the demand for cobalt in the market was weak, and the supply of cobalt in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) recovered. Overall, the cobalt market has strong supply and weak demand, and the support for cobalt price increases is insufficient. Cobalt prices have stopped rising and fallen back. Expect a slight decline in cobalt prices in the future.