1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the average market price of 55% powdered ammonium phosphate in China was 3096 yuan/ton on April 1st, and 3016 yuan/ton on April 8th. This week, the market price of 55% powdered ammonium phosphate dropped by 2.58%.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the average market price of 64% diammonium phosphate in China was 3976 yuan/ton on April 1st, and 3940 yuan/ton on April 8th. This week, the market price of diammonium phosphate decreased by 1.17%.

2、 Market analysis

The market trend of ammonium phosphate has declined this week. The raw material market is strong, and there is still support on the cost side. The demand side continues to be sluggish, the market trading atmosphere is weak, downstream purchases are made on demand, and new orders are not sold enough. As of April 8th, the market price of 55 powder ammonium in Hubei region is around 2900-3000 yuan/ton, and the factory price of 55 powder ammonium in Henan region is around 3000-3050 yuan/ton, with actual negotiations being the main focus. The outbound price of 64% diammonium in Shandong region is around 3900-4100 yuan/ton, and the outbound price of 57% diammonium is around 3560-3660 yuan/ton. The actual transaction is negotiable.

In terms of raw material phosphate ore. The phosphate ore market has been operating steadily this week. At present, the overall trading volume in the domestic phosphate ore market is light, and downstream new orders for phosphate ore are mainly for rigid demand procurement, with the market waiting for demand to be released. As of April 8th, the reference price for domestic phosphate ore market is around 1062 yuan/ton.

3、 Future Market Forecast

According to analysts from Business Society, the ammonium phosphate market has recently seen a downward trend. At present, although there is support on the cost side, downstream demand is not performing well, and the short-term market situation is difficult to improve. It is expected that the short-term market price of ammonium phosphate will be mainly weak.

According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, the domestic propylene (Shandong) market saw a slight increase at the beginning of March, followed by a retracement of the increase, and an overall decline in March. On March 1st, the market average was 6870 yuan/ton, while on March 29th, the average price was 6790 yuan/ton, a monthly decrease of 1.17%, a decrease of 1.87% compared to the same period last year.

As of March 29th, the mainstream prices of propylene in some regions of China are as follows:

Region/ March 29th

Shandong region/ 6700-6750 yuan/ton

Northeast region/ 6350-6500 yuan/ton

East China region/ 6850-6900 yuan/ton

Supply side: tighten first and then loosen. At the beginning of the month, multiple propylene units were shut down, leading to a shortage of goods in the region and a temporary tightening of supply. Starting from mid month, with multiple upstream propylene units gradually resuming operation, the supply has shifted from tight to loose, and in the second half of the month, there was a situation of oversupply.

On the demand side, there is more decline than increase. The overall decline in downstream derivatives of propylene in March was greater than the increase. Isooctanol and isobutyraldehyde were negatively affected by both cost and demand, with a decline of 20.93% and 11.26% in March. The main downstream polypropylene market is weak and volatile, with average enthusiasm for purchasing propylene. Overall, the downstream demand side has poor support, which has a negative impact on propylene demand.

Cost side: still at a high level. In March, the cost side of liquefied gas, methanol, propane, etc. all experienced varying degrees of decline, weakening support for propylene, but remained relatively high. The gross profit of producing propylene from naphtha is about -138 US dollars per ton, the gross profit of producing propylene from PDH is about -300 yuan per ton, and the gross profit of producing propylene from methanol is about -500 yuan per ton.

Future Market Forecast

After a broad decline in late March, the price of propylene fell to a low point, and downstream investors entered the market on dips. At the end of the month, the market slightly rebounded. There is a possibility of multiple propylene units restarting in April, while new production capacity from Jincheng Petrochemical and CNOOC Fine are expected to be put into operation, leading to an increase in supply. In terms of demand, there are plans to restart downstream maintenance equipment in the early stage, which provides some support for the demand side. However, some of the demand remains in high demand, which has constrained the propylene market. Overall, the supply and demand side will maintain a state of oversupply in April, and it is expected that the price center will fluctuate downward.

According to the bulk list data of Business Society, as of March 31, 2024, the reference price for diethylene glycol in the domestic market was 5400 yuan/ton, an increase of 250 yuan/ton or 4.85% compared to the price on March 1, 2024 (reference price for diethylene glycol is 5150 yuan/ton).

From the monitoring of data from Business Society, it can be seen that the domestic diethylene glycol market fluctuated in March, with an increase in focus at the end of the month. The overall supply and demand performance this month is weak, with domestic production starting at a high level and domestic supply increasing. Demand continues to recover, but the follow-up performance is lackluster. In the first half of the month, boosted by news of maintenance of some domestic equipment, the market sentiment was still good, and prices fluctuated and rose. However, in the middle of the month, there was a concentration and a large quantity of cargo arriving at the port. Since March 14th, the main port inventory has increased to 50000 tons, and the market spot has entered a 5150-5165 cycle, greatly reducing trading activity. All parties maintain a wait-and-see attitude. In the second half of the month, the supply and demand continued to be deadlocked, with overall supply remaining loose and no substantial increase in demand. There was a lack of clear news guidance, and the market tended to be weak and consolidating. At the end of the month, there was no significant bearish news in the market, but due to the decrease in inventory and the impact of the end of month delivery period, the market fluctuated upwards.

Downstream demand: The operating rates of polyester and UPR have both slightly increased, with most of them returning to work. However, the overall progress is slow, and there is a significant gap compared to the rapid return of 10000 tons per week in port delivery after the Spring Festival in 2023. The increase in weekly port delivery after the Spring Festival this year is slow. Of course, some of the reasons were due to the high load operation of domestically produced equipment in January and February, which resulted in downstream pick-up concentrated in domestically produced compressed main ports for import shipments. However, the overall pick-up level was still lower than expected, which is still a fact. As of the end of the month, the comprehensive capacity utilization rate of UPR is around 33%.

Future forecast: There may be some upward potential in the domestic diethylene glycol market in April. In terms of supply, according to the maintenance news of large-scale integrated devices in China in April, domestic supply may experience a narrow reduction, and the supply pressure may be alleviated to a certain extent; In terms of demand, as we enter April, downstream demand will continue to recover, while demand for unsaturated resins and polyester may steadily increase. Demand performance is the main reference direction for market adjustment. Business Society’s diethylene glycol analyst believes that the domestic diethylene glycol market may experience a strong adjustment in April, and specific attention still needs to be paid to downstream demand growth.

In March, the price of plasticizer DBP first fell and then rose

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of March 29th, the DBP price was 9375 yuan/ton, rebounding and increasing by 1.90% compared to the DBP price of 9200 yuan/ton on March 25th; Compared to March 1st, the DBP price dropped by 2.47% to 9612.5 yuan/ton. The raw material n-butanol stopped falling and rebounded, the price of isooctanol stopped falling and rebounded, and the cost of plasticizer DBP stopped falling and rising at the end of the month. Downstream manufacturers have temporarily stabilized production, while inventory levels remain stable. Downstream customers have average purchasing enthusiasm, and the demand for plasticizer DBP is weak. In March, DBP prices first fell and then rose.

The price of n-butanol stopped falling and rebounded in March

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of March 29th, the price of n-butanol was 7850 yuan/ton, rebounding and increasing by 1.51% compared to the price of n-butanol on March 25th, which was 7933.33 yuan/ton; Compared to March 1st, the price of n-butanol at 8383.33 yuan/ton decreased first and then increased, with a decrease of 6.36%. During the Spring Festival, downstream production of n-butanol has significantly declined, while n-butanol enterprises have maintained a relatively high level of production. The inventory of n-butanol manufacturers has accumulated, and the import volume of n-butanol has increased. As downstream production of n-butanol continues to recover, there is more inventory in the downstream, and the demand for n-butanol has rebounded. However, the inventory of n-butanol has remained high. In addition, the problem of n-butanol inventory accumulation in February has led to an oversupply in the n-butanol market. In March, the price of n-butanol continued its downward trend and continued to decline. Downstream customers were more eager to stock up on dips, and n-butanol manufacturers had a strong willingness to reduce inventory at low prices. At the end of the month, some n-butanol manufacturers were temporarily closed and did not sell, resulting in a decrease in n-butanol supply and a rebound in n-butanol prices; DBP cost support is increasing.

Isooctanol prices fluctuate and fall

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of March 29th, the quotation for isooctanol was 9825 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20.93% compared to the quotation of 12425 yuan/ton on March 1st; Compared to March 27th, the price of isooctanol increased by 2.61% to 9575 yuan/ton. In March, the price of isooctanol continued its downward trend in February and fell unilaterally. In March, the equipment of isooctanol enterprises resumed operation, and the supply of isooctanol increased. Imported isooctanol gradually arrived at ports from February to March, increasing the pressure on the supply of isooctanol; In terms of demand, downstream plasticizer manufacturers are operating at high loads, and there is an upward trend in demand for isooctanol. In addition, the increase in exports of isooctanol provides certain positive support for isooctanol. The supply and demand of isooctanol have increased, and the market for isooctanol remains weak. With the decrease in isooctanol inventory, the price of isooctanol has rebounded and risen. The cost of plasticizer DBP has increased.

Future expectations

Business Society plasticizer product data analysts believe that in terms of raw materials: n-butanol first fell and then rose, isooctanol prices rebounded and rose at the end of the month, and DBP raw material costs stopped falling and rose at the end of the month; In terms of supply, plasticizer DBP manufacturers operate stably under high load, with sufficient supply of DBP. As profits decrease, the expected operating load of plasticizer manufacturers decreases, and the willingness of low-priced plasticizer manufacturers to ship decreases; In terms of demand, downstream manufacturers are facing spring maintenance, with a decrease in expected operating load and a decrease in expected demand for plasticizers. In the future, the support for the rise of raw materials will increase; The supply expectation of plasticizer DBP manufacturers has decreased, and downstream PVC demand remains weak. It is expected that DBP prices will consolidate strongly in the future.