This cycle (5.9-5.16) saw a stable, moderate, and weak operation in the methyl ethyl carbonate market. As of May 16th, the market price of methyl ethyl carbonate remained stable, with electronic grade market prices ranging from 8300-8400 yuan/ton, which remained unchanged from May 9th. In the short term, it remains stable and driven by various demand factors.

Supply side:

The dimethyl carbonate market is stable with little movement, and the overall performance of spot prices is still good. Most of the main factories have no shipping pressure, and there is a clear intention to push up inventory; Although there has been no significant increase in the main raw material of environmental protection, although the emotional game has intensified, a small amount of cross regional trading continues to support most manufacturers without pressure. The demand will definitely increase, and the purchasing enthusiasm will be strong. In the short term, it is expected that dimethyl carbonate may show an upward trend. As of May 16th, the benchmark price of dimethyl carbonate in Shengyishe was 4166.67 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.81% compared to the beginning of this month (4133.33 yuan/ton).

Demand side:

The downstream electrolyte is in the off-season, and high inventory pressure suppresses the purchase of raw materials. In addition, due to poor cost transmission in the industrial chain, there are obstacles in the rebound of various solvent product markets. Therefore, overall, due to the impact of cost and weak supply and demand support, the prices of several solvent products in the market will remain relatively stable in the short term.

Recently, there have been more production of methyl ethyl carbonate, with 60000 tons of Shandong Zhuohang, 100000 tons of Hubei Haoke, and 100000 tons of Anhui Dongke all put into operation. In the later stage, more integrated devices will be put into operation, resulting in a significant increase in production growth.

Overall:

The overall supply of methyl ethyl carbonate remains stable, and some manufacturers still have a strong intention to support the market even without pressure. Downstream demand is still in urgent need of follow-up, and market exploration is not easy. The trading atmosphere remains stagnant. Business Society analysts predict that in the short term, the cost side may still have some support, market supply may still be sufficient, downstream demand may follow the market, and the market is expected to remain stagnant.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, the PVC spot market rose first and then fell this week, and overall, prices have risen. On Monday, the average domestic PVC price was 5558 yuan/ton, and on Saturday it was 5610 yuan/ton. The price increased by 0.94% during the week.

2、 Market analysis

This week, the PVC spot market rose first and then fell, and overall prices have risen. With the weakening of the futures market, the mainstream transaction prices in the spot PVC market have also experienced a certain decline, and the spot market has weakened to some extent. Downstream procurement is mainly based on point pricing, and the enthusiasm for inquiry procurement has increased, resulting in lower listed prices. Overall, the main focus is still on hard demand, and the trading atmosphere is average. As of now, the quotation range for PVC SG5 type carbide materials in China is mostly around 5520-5750 yuan/ton.

On May 10th, international crude oil futures fell. The settlement price of the main WTI crude oil futures contract in the United States was $78.26 per barrel, a decrease of $1.0 or 1.3%. The settlement price of the Brent crude oil futures main contract was $82.79 per barrel, a decrease of $1.09 or 1.3%.

In terms of calcium carbide, according to data monitored by Business Society, the prices of calcium carbide manufacturers have decreased. On Monday, the average price of domestic calcium carbide was 2883.33 yuan/ton, and on Saturday it was 2816.67 yuan/ton. The weekly price has decreased by 2.31%. Overall, the trading sentiment in the calcium carbide market has improved this week, and the situation of traders receiving goods has been more positive compared to before.

3、 Future Market Forecast

Business Society PVC analysts believe that the PVC spot market rose first and then fell this week. Upstream carbide prices have been lowered, with average cost support. International crude oil futures fell, and the PVC futures market showed weak performance in the later stage, affecting the confidence of the spot market. The PVC spot market shifted from an upward trend to a downward trend. It is expected that the PVC spot market will continue to fluctuate and consolidate within the range in the short term, and we will closely monitor changes in the news.

1、 Price trend

According to the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the average market price of tetrachloroethylene on May 11th was 5012 yuan/ton, and the average market price of tetrachloroethylene barrels on May 6th was 5050 yuan/ton. The market price of vinyl chloride fell by 0.74% this Thursday.

2、 Analysis and Review

After the May Day holiday, the price of tetrachloroethylene slightly decreased. Enterprises started operating at a high level, and the supply was stable. Downstream factories did not start operating enough, so they purchased according to demand. The market price of tetrachloroethylene was weak.

The downstream refrigerant R125 market continues to operate steadily at a high level, with prices ranging from 42000 to 45000 yuan/ton. As summer approaches, downstream industries such as air conditioning, industrial and commercial refrigeration, and chillers are experiencing increased demand, and the optimistic atmosphere in the industry continues.

3、 Future Market Forecast

Business Society’s tetrachloroethylene analyst believes that the high demand situation provides strong support for the stable tetrachloroethylene market, but the production situation has declined, and the supply of tetrachloroethylene is sufficient. It is expected that the price of tetrachloroethylene will fluctuate and consolidate in the short term.

After the May Day holiday, Shanghai lead rose for three consecutive working days, and on the 7th, it rose to 17790 yuan/ton in the Shanghai lead market, setting a new high in five years since March 2019.

According to the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the domestic price range for lead ingots on May 8th was 17350-17500 yuan/ton, with an average price of 17425 yuan/ton, an increase of 225 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day.

Macroscopically, during the May Day holiday in the international market, the Federal Reserve announced that interest rates would remain unchanged, which basically met market expectations. However, non farm employment data performed poorly, with the US dollar index falling and the overall performance of the non-ferrous market being better. The favorable policies in the domestic market have increased, boosting the domestic market mentality, and the overall macro mentality is improving.

Supply side: Due to the impact of raw material supply, the expected supply of lead ingots is tight

The supply at the mining end is still tight, and the lead processing fees are still operating at a low level, which has affected the lower production of primary lead enterprises; At the end of April, the recycled lead industry introduced a “reverse invoicing” policy, which has affected the recycling of waste battery enterprises. The procurement of raw materials for recycled lead enterprises has been difficult, and the operating rate has declined. Furthermore, the cost of purchasing waste batteries may increase due to the policy’s impact. Currently, the recycling industry has a strong wait-and-see atmosphere. Some companies have maintenance plans by the end of this month, and the expected supply of recycled lead is tight.

In terms of demand: End consumer demand support during the off-season

May is a seasonal off-season for battery companies, and the demand for battery replacement in the end market is weak. Currently, battery companies are still actively digesting existing inventory, and the cost pressure for battery companies is relatively high. They need to maintain essential procurement of raw materials. The off-season for terminals has also slowed down the rate of scrapping of used batteries, making the current supply of recycled lead tight.

Outlook for the future: Overall, the macro market atmosphere is currently warm, and the expected supply of lead ingots is tight. Although the downstream industry is in the off-season, the reduction in scrapped waste batteries has also exacerbated the problem of tight supply of raw materials for recycled lead enterprises. Lead prices will continue to remain strong in the short term, boosted by tight supply.

Related data:

According to ILZSG, an international lead and zinc research group, it is expected that there will be a global surplus of 40000 tons of refined lead supply in 2024. The global demand for refined lead is expected to increase by 1.9% to 13.42 million tons, and lead ore production is expected to increase by 1.8% to 4.59 million tons. ILZSG expects a global surplus of 56000 tons of refined zinc supply in 2024. The global demand for refined zinc is expected to increase by 1.8% to 13.96 million tons, and zinc ore production is expected to increase by 0.7% to 12.42 million tons.

On May 7th, the total LME lead inventory was 258800 tons, a decrease of 7200 tons compared to the previous trading day. The Singapore warehouse decreased by 3350 tons, the Kaohsiung warehouse decreased by 1775 tons, the Busan warehouse decreased by 1025 tons, the Guangyang warehouse decreased by 1025 tons, and the Laiheng warehouse decreased by 25 tons. The inventory levels in other regions are temporarily stable.

Weak prices of ethylene glycol in April

The price of ethylene glycol was weak in April. According to data from Business Society, as of April 30th, the average price of domestic oil to ethylene glycol was 4481.67 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.70% from the average price of 4513.33 yuan/ton in the East China market on April 1st. The prices for each region are as follows:

The price range for spot goods executed by mainstream manufacturers in East China is between 4400-4630 yuan/ton; The spot price of ethylene glycol in the South China market is 4400 yuan/ton, while the mainstream manufacturers in Central China have a spot price range of 4350 yuan/ton for external execution; The mainstream manufacturers in North China offer a spot price of 4500 yuan/ton for external transactions.

Fundamental logic of market weakness

Since March, the market has started trading overseas devices and there has been news of a restart, coupled with a shift in port inventory from obvious destocking to platform volatility, leading to a decline in ethylene glycol prices.

At present, the price of ethylene glycol is supported by cost factors, factory profits are narrowing, and the long short game is intensifying. The market is gradually considering bottom support, and the price is relatively stable in the near future.

Ethylene glycol may continue to operate weakly in May

Ethylene glycol may continue to operate weakly in May, for the following reasons:

1. The expected increase in domestic and foreign supply in May may be realized; In terms of overseas facilities, all ethylene glycol facilities in Saudi Arabia have resumed operation, while the restart of facilities in South Asia in the United States has been postponed until early May. There is an expectation of an increase in overseas supply, while domestic imports are expected to remain in an incremental state in May; In terms of domestic facilities, there is an expectation of restarting facilities with a production capacity of 2.8 million tons per year. However, the new maintenance plan for domestic facilities also involves a production capacity of 900000 tons per year, which depends on the actual implementation situation. Overall, it is expected that domestic supply may increase in May.

Currently, the operating load of polyester is relatively high, and there is limited room for downstream demand improvement in May.

Expected failure variable:

If crude oil prices and coal continue to rise in May, the cost of ethylene glycol will provide strong support; The dominant factor in ethylene glycol prices is shifting from supply and demand to cost side;

2. Explicit inventory is contrary to expectations, and there has been no accumulation of port inventory, continuing to be in a state of destocking. Market sentiment is guided by the undervalued value of ethylene glycol, and funds are pushing up the price of ethylene glycol.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the domestic TDI price fluctuated and declined in April. At the beginning of the month, the average TDI market price was 16100 yuan/ton. On April 30th, the TDI price was 15500 yuan/ton, and it was reduced by 600 yuan/ton within the month, with an overall decline of 3.73%.

The TDI market in April was weak and volatile. In the first ten days, the TDI market continued its downward trend in March, with light trading in the terminal market, continued sluggish downstream purchases, weak trading market sentiment, and a continuous decline in market transaction focus; In the middle and later half of the year, TDI prices first rose and then fell. On April 11th, the positive news from major manufacturers was released, and the supply side offered a strong increase. TDI prices stopped falling and rebounded, but due to weak demand performance, low enthusiasm for downstream entry into the market, insufficient consumption in the terminal market, and weak downstream acceptance of high priced goods, TDI prices fell again under the leadership of demand.

The upstream toluene market rose and fell in April, with prices at 7610 yuan/ton on April 30th, an increase of 200 yuan/ton from the beginning of the month at 7410 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.70%. The international crude oil price fluctuates at a high level, and the cost of toluene continues to support; The demand for downstream oil adjustment and disproportionation reaction is lower than expected, and the support for toluene is relatively weak; The high level of port inventory has a bearish impact on the toluene market.

According to TDI data analysts from Business Society, the operation of TDI factories in China is currently stable, with high capacity utilization. The trade market mentality is conflicted, and the shipment of goods by holders is limited. The transaction focus continues to decline, and market confidence is insufficient; Downstream demand continues to be weak, with industry players taking a wait-and-see attitude. In the supply-demand game, it is expected that the short-term TDI market will be weak, with narrow price fluctuations. Please pay attention to the follow-up situation downstream.

According to the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, sulfur prices in East China rose first and then fell in April. On April 30th, the average ex factory price of sulfur in the East China region was 1183.33 yuan/ton, an overall increase of 10.25% compared to the average ex factory price of 1073.33 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month.

This month, the sulfur market in East China rose first and then fell. Prior to the 18th, the price of sulfur rose strongly, and downstream purchases were active in this cycle. On site trading was active, and enterprise shipments were smooth, which was beneficial for the increase in sulfur prices. At the same time, the maintenance of refineries in the Shandong region of the supplier was concentrated, and the utilization rate of production capacity was reduced. The market supply of goods was tight, and the inventory of enterprises was low, resulting in a significant increase in refinery prices. Supported by favorable supply and demand, the focus of sulfur prices continued to shift upwards; After the price of sulfur rose to a high level, it was difficult to find low-priced downstream sources of sulfur, and resistance to high priced sulfur increased. With the normal operation of refineries in Shandong and stable market supply of goods, downstream stocking sentiment gradually weakened. In addition, some refineries discharged inventory before the holiday, and the trend of sulfur consolidation and downward adjustment.

The downstream sulfuric acid market stabilized first and then fell in April. At the beginning of the month, the sulfuric acid market price was 328.75 yuan/ton, and on April 30th, it was 272.50 yuan/ton, a decrease of 17.11% during the month. In the first half of the year, the domestic sulfuric acid market remained stable, with acid companies maintaining their shipping pace. Downstream demand and procurement enthusiasm were not high, and the market trading atmosphere was weak, resulting in a slight adjustment in sulfuric acid prices; In the latter half of the year, the sulfuric acid market remained stable and downward, with average demand in the downstream compound fertilizer industry and limited procurement of sulfuric acid. Acid companies had poor shipments, and some companies lowered their prices to stimulate shipments.

The market for monoammonium phosphate continued to decline in April, with a decrease in the price of raw material phosphate rock and an increase in the price of raw material sulfur. The cost side showed mixed fluctuations. The operating rate of ammonium phosphate enterprises has declined, some ammonium phosphate equipment has been repaired, and market supply has been reduced. However, the demand side continues to be sluggish, and market trading is weak. Downstream compound fertilizer enterprises are more cautious in procurement, with insufficient new orders and sales pressure. Market sentiment is pessimistic, and the price of ammonium phosphate continues to decline. As of April 30th, the average market price of 55% powdered ammonium was 2853 yuan/ton, a decrease of 7.86% compared to the average price of 3096 yuan/ton on April 1st.

In the future market forecast, sulfur analysts from Business Society believe that the supply of sulfur in the current sulfur market is stable, with no pressure on enterprise inventory. Suppliers mainly maintain shipments, and downstream purchasing enthusiasm is not high. On market trading follows up as needed, and enterprise shipments are inconsistent. Considering the weak downstream market and the weakening reaction to high priced sulfur, it is expected that the sulfur market will remain stagnant and consolidate in May, and prices may slightly decrease.