1、 Price trend

 

PVA 1799 (PVA BF17)

According to monitoring data from Business Society, the overall price of caustic soda stabilized in May. At the beginning of the month, the average price in the Shandong market was 790 yuan/ton, and at the end of the month, the average price in the Shandong market was around 792 yuan/ton. The overall price increased by 0.25%, and the price decreased by 11.8% compared to the same period last year. On May 30th, the chlor alkali index was 1013 points, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 52.40% from the highest point in the cycle of 2128 points (2021-10-24), and an increase of 42.28% from the lowest point of 712 points on January 5th, 2016. (Note: The cycle refers to 2011-12-01 present)

 

2、 Market analysis

 

According to survey data from Business Society, the overall price of caustic soda has stabilized this month. At present, the price of caustic soda in Jiangsu region is temporarily stable, with a mainstream market quotation of 32% ion exchange membrane caustic soda at around 860-950 yuan/ton. The price of caustic soda in Shandong region is currently stable, with a mainstream market quotation of around 710-820 yuan/ton for 32% ion exchange membrane caustic soda.

 

POLYVINYL ALCOHOL

In early May, the price of caustic soda stabilized and operated, with downstream alumina mainly being purchased on demand. There is no favorable support for the stable operation of liquid alkali prices. In mid to late May, the trading focus of the Shandong liquid alkali market increased, and the overall inventory of the market was not high. The domestic aluminum oxide prices in the downstream continued to be stable, medium, and strong. The prices of adhesive companies continue to remain stable, with limited market fluctuations.

 

According to the price monitoring of Business Society, in the 21st week of 2024 (5.20-5.24), there were a total of 3 products that rose, 1 product that fell, and 3 products that rose or fell to 0 on the chlor alkali industry price list. The main rising commodities include: light soda ash (1.91%), PVC (1.28%), and caustic soda (0.25%); The main commodities falling are baking soda (-0.84%). The average increase and decrease this week is 0.37%.

 

Business Society analysts believe that in recent times, caustic soda prices have been consolidating and operating. Low concentration alkali is constrained by downstream demand and its rise is relatively weak. Downstream demand is mainly cautious, with a wait-and-see attitude, and transactions are lukewarm and not hot. It is expected that the later stage or consolidation operation will be the main focus, depending on downstream market demand.

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1、 Price trend

 

PVA 2699

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the average market price of dichloroethane in China was 2770 yuan/ton on May 31st, and the average market price of dichloroethane in China was 2716 yuan/ton on May 1st. The market price of dichloroethane increased by 1.96% within the month.

 

2、 Analysis and Review

 

In May, the production of dichloroethane started steadily, with normal shipments and some enterprises undergoing equipment maintenance. According to customs data statistics, China did not import dichloroethane in the first quarter of this year. In April, the import volume of dichloroethane in China was 16269.322 tons, an increase of 59% compared to last year. Downstream enterprises were actively outsourcing, and China’s economy recovered moderately. The enthusiasm of the domestic market is average, and the trading atmosphere is still stable. Affected by downstream price increases, dichloroethane manufacturers have slightly increased their prices and are watching.

 

Cost side:

 

The focus of the Asian ethylene market has shifted downwards, with an average CFR price of $855/ton in Northeast Asia, a decrease of $50/ton from the beginning of the month; The average CFR price in Southeast Asia is $955 per ton, a decrease of $55 per ton from the beginning of the month. The domestic ethylene quotation in East China is 7300 yuan/ton, a decrease of 150 yuan/ton from the beginning of the month, and the market situation is fluctuating and weakening.

 

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Demand side:

 

The downstream price of vinyl chloride is 5300 yuan/ton, an increase of 350 yuan/ton from the beginning of the month. Entering May, PVC futures spot prices have surged one after another, and the domestic real estate sector has repeatedly released positive news. The market has fluctuated and risen, reaching a new high in nearly half a year. At the end of the month, the bullish sentiment triggered by favorable policies gradually subsided, and PVC futures returned to being dominated by fundamentals. Driven by the favorable futures market, the current spot market for ethylene based PVC in East China is priced at 6200 yuan/ton, an increase of 250 yuan/ton from the beginning of the month. However, PVC social inventory remains high, and downstream demand remains weak.

 

3、 Future Market Forecast

 

Business Society’s dichloroethane analyst believes that as costs decline and demand shows an upward trend, it is expected that the price of dichloroethane will remain stable in the near future.

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The market for butadiene styrene rubber rose in May. According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, as of May 31st, the price of butadiene benzene 1502 was 14000 yuan/ton, an increase of 4.35% from the beginning of the month’s 13416 yuan/ton.

 

PVA 2088 (PVA BP20)

In May, the production of butadiene styrene rubber units decreased, and the supply pressure was not high; Downstream all tire production slightly declined in late May, with on-demand inquiries for the butadiene styrene rubber market supported by rigid demand; The prices of raw materials such as butadiene and styrene have slightly increased, while the cost center of butadiene styrene rubber has slightly increased. The market for styrene butadiene rubber is supported by costs and supply, and the market is rising.

 

Part of the equipment has been operating under reduced load, and the production of butadiene styrene rubber in May has decreased from 6.2% at the beginning of the month to around 5.3% at the end of the month.

 

In May, the prices of butadiene and styrene raw materials for styrene butadiene rubber slightly increased, supporting the cost side of styrene butadiene rubber.

 

POLYVINYL ALCOHOL

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of May 31st, the price of butadiene was 11875 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.39% from 11712 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month; As of May 31st, the price of styrene was 9683 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.61% from 9530 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month.

 

Demand side: Downstream tire production fluctuated slightly in May, with primary support for rigid demand for butadiene styrene rubber. It is understood that in May, the operating load of semi steel tires in domestic tire enterprises increased from 7.8% to around 7.9%; The operating load of all steel tires in Shandong tire enterprises increased from 6.4% at the beginning of the month to around 6.8% in the middle of the month, and decreased to around 6.6% at the end of the month. In May, downstream customers stocked up on demand, resulting in lackluster market transactions.

 

Market forecast: Business Society analysts believe that high prices of raw materials such as butadiene and styrene are supported by the cost of butadiene styrene rubber; The production of butadiene styrene rubber is at a low level, and the pressure on the supply side of butadiene styrene rubber is not high; At present, downstream tire production is stable with a slight consolidation, which provides strong support for the demand for butadiene styrene rubber. Overall, the butadiene styrene rubber market may experience a high consolidation in the later stage.

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The lithium hexafluorophosphate market declined weakly in April. At present, the mainstream price of lithium hexafluorophosphate is around 68000 to 69000 yuan/ton.

 

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In terms of raw materials:

 

This month, the price of raw material lithium carbonate in the market tends to be weak and downward, but the cost side continues to be under pressure. With the continuous increase in lithium carbonate production and decent market trading volume, there are a small number of individual purchases. According to the monitoring system of Business Society, as of May 31st, the benchmark price of battery grade lithium carbonate in Business Society was 109400.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of -5.20% compared to the beginning of this month (115400.00 yuan/ton).

 

Downstream aspect:

 

PVA 1799 (PVA BF17)

Downstream electrolyte companies have a wait-and-see attitude, with a cold purchasing atmosphere and only maintaining a rigid demand for purchases. Due to some enterprises having a certain amount of reserves, their demand for raw materials is not active, market transmission is not smooth, and there is no good news. Overall, the downstream mainly focuses on observation.

 

Post forecast:

 

According to data analysts from Business Society, the price of raw material lithium carbonate is expected to decrease, but overall, the production cost pressure on lithium hexafluorophosphate enterprises remains significant. Most enterprises mainly consume inventory. Overall, it is expected that the lithium hexafluorophosphate market will operate weakly and steadily.

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